The price of ethylene oxide will increase significantly in March 2026. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of March 27th, the average market price of epoxyethane in China was 8400 yuan/ton, an increase of 52.73% from the market average price of 5500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Reasons for skyrocketing
The main reasons for the sharp rise in the price of ethylene oxide (EO) in March 2026 are cost surge, supply contraction, demand resonance, and leading control.
1. Cost side: Geopolitical conflict triggers upstream, leading to soaring ethylene/ethane prices (core cause)
The skyrocketing prices of crude oil and ethylene: Affected by the escalation of the Middle East situation and the obstruction of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, international crude oil prices have exceeded $100 per barrel, directly driving the price of ethylene to rise sharply. Among them, the external price of ethylene in Northeast Asia rose from about 800 US dollars/ton in early March to 1050 US dollars/ton at the end of the month, and the domestic spot price of ethylene simultaneously exceeded 7700 yuan/ton. According to estimates, for every $10 increase in crude oil prices, the cost per ton of ethylene oxide (EO) will rise by approximately 600-800 yuan.
The soaring cost of imported ethane: Most domestic ethylene oxide (EO) production facilities rely on imported ethane as raw material. Due to the significant increase in international shipping costs and import tariffs, the single ton cost of ethane imports has increased by about 2000 yuan, causing small and medium-sized production enterprises to fall into a cost inversion dilemma and be forced to reduce production to avoid losses.
The rigidity of cost transmission is highlighted: Ethylene oxide (EO) accounts for more than 70% of the cost of core products such as downstream polyether monomers and battery solvents (EC). The cost pressure caused by upstream raw material price increases can be directly and quickly transmitted to the terminal pricing of ethylene oxide (EO), further supporting price increases.
2. Supply side: Device maintenance+cost inversion, significant contraction in market commodity volume
The combination of centralized maintenance and unplanned shutdowns of equipment: In March, China entered the regular maintenance season for ethylene oxide (EO) equipment, and multiple sets of equipment from multiple companies were shut down for maintenance. At the same time, some equipment experienced sudden unplanned shutdowns, resulting in a significant decline in the overall operating rate of the industry and a decrease in effective supply capacity.
Cost inversion leads to reduced production/parking of small and medium-sized factories: For production enterprises without the ability to self supply ethylene oxide (EO) and requiring external procurement of raw materials, the sharp rise in upstream raw material prices has completely eroded their profits, resulting in large-scale load reduction and even parking, further reducing the supply of goods in the market.
Leading enterprises are closing down and collectively raising prices: Leading enterprises in industries such as Sinopec and PetroChina have simultaneously made efforts to significantly increase the listing price of ethylene oxide (EO), with a cumulative increase of over 2600 yuan/ton in March; At the same time, measures such as suspending external quotations, limiting orders, and prioritizing the supply of old customers have been taken to artificially exacerbate the tight supply situation in the market, creating a panic atmosphere of “not being able to buy goods” and promoting price increases.
Insufficient supply elasticity of market commodity volume: Although the total domestic production capacity of ethylene oxide (EO) has exceeded 10 million tons, the newly added capacity is mostly matched with the downstream production demand of enterprises, and the growth of commodity volume released to the outside world is limited. In the face of sudden demand growth, the supply side is difficult to respond quickly, further amplifying the tight supply situation.

3. Demand side: Spring peak season+outbreak of new energy, concentrated release of essential needs
The peak season of “gold, three silver and four” of traditional infrastructure construction: from March to April, the domestic infrastructure and real estate industry resumed production and accelerated, and the policy of superposition of trillions of treasury bond and special debt was put into effect, which led to the centralized release of demand for polycarboxylic acid water reducer (core downstream application of polyether monomer), and the purchase volume of downstream enterprises increased significantly, forming a rigid demand support for ethylene oxide (EO).
Explosive growth in demand for new energy: The rapid expansion of demand in the lithium-ion electrolyte solvent (EC/DMC) industry has become a new engine for the growth of demand for ethylene oxide (EO); Combined with downstream enterprises predicting that prices will continue to rise, they have initiated panic buying operations to further increase demand and drive up the price of ethylene oxide (EO).
The low inventory of the industrial chain forms a positive feedback: the ethylene oxide (EO) market has been operating at a low price for a long time in the early stage, and the overall inventory of various links in the industrial chain remains low; After the price starts to rise, downstream enterprises have a strong willingness to replenish inventory, forming a virtuous cycle of “price increase → grabbing goods → inventory replenishment → further price increase”, accelerating the trend of price increase.
4. Market sentiment and pricing power: led by leaders and supported by funds, amplifying the effect of price increases
Leading enterprises dominate pricing power: The concentration of ethylene oxide (EO) industry is relatively high, and leading enterprises such as Sinopec and PetroChina hold the dominant pricing power in the industry. Against the dual background of rising costs and tight supply and demand, they collectively raise prices significantly to guide the overall upward trend of market prices and further consolidate the upward trend.
Market panic and capital speculation: Under the expectation of tight supply and high costs in the market, traders are hoarding and reluctant to sell, while downstream enterprises panic and grab goods. The market sentiment remains optimistic; At the same time, some funds were involved in speculation, further amplifying price fluctuations and accelerating the rise of ethylene oxide (EO) prices, ultimately resulting in a significant monthly surge.
Future expectations
The mainstream quotation for ethylene oxide (EO) in April is expected to remain at 7500-8200 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the month, due to the inertia of high prices in March and incomplete supply recovery, the price may remain at 7900-8200 yuan/ton; In the middle of the month, as the equipment gradually resumes work and supply increases, the price may slightly drop to 7500-7800 yuan/ton; At the end of the month, supply further recovered and prices tended to stabilize, with a high probability of stabilizing at 7700-7900 yuan/ton. The expected monthly fluctuation range is 5% -8%, far lower than the nearly 50% increase in March.
The main basis is that the core driving logic has shifted from “supply-demand gap+cost surge” in March to “cost support+supply-demand balance”. Short term fluctuations are significantly affected by the resumption of plant work, raw material prices, and downstream demand rhythm, and there is no basis for sustained price surges or drops. In the future, as extreme events subside and the supply side gradually recovers, the supply-demand gap continues to narrow; However, the cost side still has rigidity and there is no significant room for short-term decline.