Overall trend: first skyrocketing, then falling, and then moderately recovering
In March, the domestic dichloromethane market presented a typical “roller coaster” trend, which can be divided into three stages:
Early March: Rapid growth period. Affected by the surge in methanol and liquid chlorine raw materials, the cost side has been strongly driven, and the dichloromethane market has rapidly risen, with prices pushing up to 3265 yuan/ton, a stage increase of 86.04%, becoming the core surge stage of this month’s market.
Mid March: High level decline period. After the price rose to a high level, downstream and traders were cautious about accepting orders from high priced sources, resulting in a significant increase in inventory pressure for enterprises. Due to the decline in liquid chlorine prices and the weakening of methanol, cost support has loosened, forcing companies to lower prices and reduce inventory. As of March 20th, the price has fallen to 2175 yuan/ton, with a drop of about 33.38% from the high point.
Late March: Mild recovery period. With the wide rise of methanol and liquid chlorine, cost support has once again strengthened, and enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices. The price of dichloromethane has slightly rebounded after hitting bottom.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 24th, the mixed price of dichloromethane in Shandong region was 2385 yuan/ton. Driven by the continuous cost side, the market surged 35.9% compared to the beginning of the month, but due to the imbalance between supply and demand, the market fell 7.38% year-on-year, reflecting the core contradiction of “strong cost support and obvious demand drag” in the current market.
Cost aspect: The fluctuation of raw materials is severe, leading the market trend
Liquid chlorine: The liquid chlorine market in Shandong region surged in the first half of the year, fluctuated at a high level in the middle, fell back and gradually stabilized in the second half, showing a violent wave dynamic trend. Its trend is highly synchronized with the dichloromethane market and is the key cost variable that triggered the “roller coaster” trend of dichloromethane this month.
Methanol: Affected by the Middle East conflict, Iran’s import expectations have tightened, and the domestic methanol market has fluctuated upwards, pushing up production costs. According to data from Shengyi Society, the price of methanol on March 24th was 3170 yuan/ton, a sharp increase of 44.09% compared to early March, providing strong cost support for the recovery market of dichloromethane in the latter half of the month.
Supply and demand side: coexistence of loose supply and weak demand
Export obstruction and inventory pressure: Due to shipping disruptions, delays in shipping schedules, and other issues, export orders from the Middle East have significantly decreased, causing the return of goods originally intended for export to the domestic market, resulting in an increase in domestic supply. At the same time, the inventory of production enterprises continues to accumulate, leading to a decrease in market trading enthusiasm.
Supply is stable with an increase: Some enterprises in the region have both reduced and increased their equipment load, and the overall operating rate remains at around 80%. At present, with the gradual resumption of production of the equipment, the market supply is showing a stable and upward trend.
Demand recovery falls short of expectations: downstream industries such as refrigerants, pharmaceuticals, and solvents have not seen a significant increase in demand, which has not met previous market expectations. Terminal enterprises generally adopt a cautious strategy of “purchasing as needed and buying as needed”, resulting in a sluggish overall market transaction performance.

Future outlook:
Looking ahead to April, the dichloromethane market is expected to continue a wide range of volatile patterns, with mixed long and short factors:
Cost support still exists but there is a high risk of fluctuation: methanol prices remain high under the expectation of import volume reduction, forming bottom support for the market; However, as a key variable, if the subsequent supply recovery leads to a price drop, liquid chlorine will directly weaken the cost driving force of dichloromethane.
The supply-demand contradiction needs to be alleviated: on the supply side, with the resumption of equipment production, the market supply is sufficient; On the demand side, it is necessary to focus on the stocking pace of downstream industries. If there is insufficient follow-up on demand, high inventory pressure may force companies to make concessions again.
Market mentality cautious: After experiencing significant fluctuations this month, traders and downstream users have a strong risk aversion and less speculative demand. In the short term, the market will repeatedly play a game between cost support and weak demand, and it is expected that prices will show a periodic rebound followed by a volatile consolidation trend. It is recommended to closely monitor changes in raw material prices and downstream procurement rhythms.