Lithium hydroxide Market is temporarily stable this week (12.9-12.13)

I. price trend of lithium hydroxide:

 

The average price of lithium hydroxide as of December 13 was 57666.67 yuan / ton, the same as that at the beginning of the week, and the market of lithium hydroxide was stable for the time being this week, according to the bulk list data of business agency. In a three-month cycle, it fell 19.16% year-on-year.

 

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II. Market analysis:

 

Product: the market of lithium hydroxide is stable this week. Although the operating rate has been at a low level, the downstream demand has not been substantially improved, the market trading atmosphere is light, and the market is mainly stable. At present, the external quotation of industrial grade lithium hydroxide of Shanghai Yulun Industrial Co., Ltd. is 58000 yuan / ton, that of Shanghai oujin Industrial Co., Ltd. is 60000 yuan / ton, that of Zigong tongfarong industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 55000 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai huaran industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 55000 yuan / ton. The specific price is a single discussion.

 

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Industry chain: the upstream lithium carbonate market price fell (12.9-12.13) this week, up or down by – 2.52%. At present, the price of lithium carbonate continues to decline, and the downstream enterprises’ stock up for Spring Festival is coming to an end. The future market demand is relatively pessimistic, and it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will remain low in the short term.

 

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 49th week of 2019 (12.9-12.13), there are 24 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical industry sector, including 4 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 4.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are glycol (17.59%), crude benzene (7.07%) and aniline (6.81%). There are 28 commodities with a decline of more than 5% on a month on month basis, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products with a decline are hydrochloric acid (- 6.41%), chloroform (- 4.55%), and bisphenol A (- 3.62%). This week’s average was 0.07%.

 

3. Future forecast:

 

According to analysts of lithium hydroxide of business association, the weak market of lithium carbonate in the upper reaches and the falling price have a negative impact on the cost of lithium hydroxide. Although the operating rate of lithium hydroxide is at a low level, the demand side is weak, and there is no strong positive factor support for the moment. It is expected that in the short term, the lithium hydroxide Market will be consolidated and wait-and-see.

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MDI market enters “platform period” after surging

I. price trend

 

According to the price monitoring of business agency, as of December 10, the average price of domestic aggregate MDI market was 13200 yuan / ton, which was 5.81% higher than that of the same period last month and 13.55% higher than that of the same period last year. The overall market is relatively strong.

 

II. Market analysis

 

Product: the domestic aggregate MDI market is stable, moderate and strong. This week, the price setting enterprises increased 300 yuan / ton, the cost increased, but the downstream just need to purchase cautiously, the market trading atmosphere is weak, and the attitude of the industry is different. This week, there is a small amount of spot goods in circulation in the site. Most of the traders are reluctant to sell and deliver goods. The quotation is high and firm. However, under the high price of raw materials, the downstream is cautious and just needs small orders to purchase goods. The inquiry atmosphere is general. It is expected that the short-term domestic aggregate MDI market will be more intensive, and continue to wait and see the actual transaction situation in the market.

 

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In terms of market, the aggregate MDI market in North China and Shandong is relatively strong. This week, kostrong’s price was raised, the cost side slightly increased, and the company’s offer was firm, but the downstream was cautious. The MDI market of East China polymerization moved up and stable, and the offer of Kesi Chuang was increased by 300 yuan / ton, with a small amount of supply maintained. The downstream procurement was mainly on demand, and the market trading atmosphere was weak. South China aggregate MDI market horizontal consolidation. Weekly pricing enterprises offer up, cost support is enhanced, downstream purchase on demand, market trading atmosphere is general, and the industry keeps stable to negotiate shipment.

 

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, East China’s pure benzene was shocked and consolidated, which was weakened by the fall of styrene, and then domestic prices rebounded due to the sharp rise in external market. At present, the external market is at a high level, and the main theoretical window for upgrading has been opened. It is expected that the domestic pure benzene market will fluctuate around 5800 yuan / ton in a short term.

Aniline: the price of aniline enterprises has increased tentatively, and the downstream enterprises’ intention of receiving goods is acceptable. The cost support is strong, and it is expected that the domestic aniline market price will be increased in the short term, with reference to 6550 yuan / ton in East China and 6340 yuan / ton in North China.

 

III. future forecast

 

From the perspective of business community: on the positive side, enterprises have less market volume; suppliers intend to stabilize the market. In terms of bad news, the terminal just needs to be improved to a limited extent; some downstream still have pre inventory, mainly digesting inventory. MDI analysts predict that the short-term domestic aggregate MDI market is stable, moderate and strong.

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Acrylic market rose this week (12.2-12.6)

I. price trend of acrylic acid:

 

Acrylic market rose this week, according to a large number of data from the business club. As of December 6, the average price of acrylic acid was 8000 yuan / ton, up 1.69% compared with that at the beginning of the week (December 2). In a three-month cycle, it rose 1.27% year-on-year. On June 6, the main quotation of acrylic acid in China was 7300-9000 yuan / ton.

 

II. Market analysis:

 

Product: acrylic market rose this week. Due to the shutdown of some plants and the decrease of market supply, the price of acrylic acid rose. As of June 6, the price of acrylic acid of Shandong Yukang Chemical Co., Ltd. has been temporarily stable, with 7200 yuan / ton of common acid and 7800 yuan / ton of refined acid. The specific transaction price has been discussed on a case by case basis. The price of acrylic acid of Wanhua chemical and Petrochemical Co., Ltd. has remained stable, with main supply contracts and stable customers. At present, the price of acrylic acid is 7700 yuan / ton.

 

Industry chain: this week (12.2-12.6), the market in the upstream propylene Shandong region fell, down 3.85%. At present, the market turnover has dropped to about 6720-7300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 6720-6750 yuan / ton. At present, the pressure of supply and demand still exists, the market atmosphere is weak, the procurement is cold, and the downstream mentality is cautious. However, affected by the OPEC production reduction agreement or the extension and strengthening degree, the international crude oil rose sharply on the 4th and slightly on the 5th, so it is expected that the market price of propylene will recover in recent days. Acrylic acid downstream buy just need, more cautious wait-and-see.

 

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Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 48th week of 2019 (12.2-12.6), there are 17 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the chemical sector; the top three commodities are R22 (5.77%), liquid ammonia (3.72%) and organosilicon DMC (3.17%). There are 26 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month ratio, and the top three products were propylene (- 3.85%), isopropanol (- 3.63%) and polysilicon (- 3.34%). This week’s average was – 0.26%.

 

3. Future forecast:

 

Acrylic analysts of the business community believe that the upstream propylene price fell and the cost support was weak. The supply of acrylic acid has decreased and the market price has increased. However, the downstream market is just in need of receiving goods. It is expected that in the short term, the acrylic acid market will be mainly stable.

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Weak supply and demand, glycol market downturn (12.2-12.6)

I. price trend

According to the data of business agency, the average ex factory listing price of oil-based glycol in North China on December 6 was 4833 yuan / ton, up 0.69% from last week.

 

At the beginning of this week, the price of large-scale single can of ethylene glycol in East China was 4680 yuan / ton. After a week’s consolidation, the price was 4710 yuan / ton by Friday, slightly rising.

 

II. Analysis of influencing factors

 

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As of yesterday, the total operating rate of domestic glycol was 59.85%, including non coal load of 58.96% and coal production load of 61.1%, with a steady decline.

 

Downstream polyester production and sales performance slightly contracted, some polyester factories successively issued maintenance plans, and overall demand gradually weakened.

 

As of Thursday, the main port of East China’s glycol port inventory was about 364400 tons, an increase of 25700 tons from Monday, an increase of 5.53%. Among them, Zhangjiagang has an inventory of 172400 tons, Taicang has an inventory of 45000 tons. This week, the average daily delivery of glycol in Zhangjiagang is 10700 tons, while that in Taicang is 35000 tons.

 

III. future forecast

 

According to glycol analysts of business agency, due to the early Yangtze River Closure and other reasons, glycol was delayed to arrive in Hong Kong. Due to the poor delivery situation after arrival this week, the accumulated storage of terminal glycol has become a reality. At present, the factory starts stably, while the downstream purchase intention is low, and it is expected that the price of glycol will continue to be consolidated in the near future.

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Styrene price rose slightly this week (11.25-11.29)

I. price trend

 

Styrene prices edged higher this week. According to the data of business agency, the price of sample enterprises on Monday (November 25) was 7316.67 yuan / ton, and the price of sample enterprises on Friday (November 29) was 7416.67 yuan / ton, up 1.37%, 10.28% lower than the same period last year.

 

II. Market analysis

 

Products:

 

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Styrene market rose slightly this week. On November 25, East China: East China styrene closed at 7250-7300 yuan / ton. On November 29, East China styrene closed at 7400 yuan / ton, up about 100 yuan / ton. The above price is Zhangjiagang’s export price. On November 25, South China styrene closed at 7400 yuan / ton, and on November 29, South China styrene closed at around 7500 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton, with the delivery price of the above factories. Styrene market is in a narrow range of volatility consolidation trend, and the rise of international crude oil has a certain boost to the market.

 

Industrial chain:

 

The international crude oil market continued to be positive, and the overall oil price fluctuated upward, giving styrene cost support. The upstream ethylene and pure benzene are slightly consolidated, the downstream PS and EPS prices are stable, the enterprise’s operating rate is good, the factory’s production and sales are stable, and the purchase is on demand. On the whole, with the approaching of December, the amount of arriving styrene will increase, which will bring a certain impact on the supply of domestic styrene market. In the short term, the supply of styrene will increase, but the downstream price is firm, the commencement is good, the capacity of digesting styrene is good, and the acceptance of current styrene price is high. Overall, the styrene market this week forced a small increase, but in December, styrene still has the possibility to touch the cost line below 7200 yuan / ton.

 

III. future forecast

 

Styrene Market Consolidation rose slightly, the end of styrene unit overhaul and normal start-up of coal to hydrogen production in Zhejiang Petrochemical Company. Recently, the reforming unit will be opened, and the styrene test run is expected to be put on the agenda. The supply of styrene in the plant is good, and the arrival of goods in East China port is expected to rise. Therefore, the business analyst thinks that styrene may still touch the cost line below 7200 yuan / ton in December. The market should pay more attention to the guidance of the trend of external market and bulk futures to the market.

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In the early winter, ammonium sulfate “cools down”

I. price trend

 

The market price of ammonium sulphate fell sharply in November, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies. On November 1, the average domestic ex factory price of ammonium sulfate was 616 yuan / ton, and on November 30, the average domestic ex factory price of ammonium sulfate was 560 yuan / ton, with a 9.19% drop in price. On November 30, the ammonium sulfate commodity index was 46.86, unchanged from yesterday, down 55.91% from 106.28 (2012-05-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 27.86% from 36.65, the lowest point on June 23, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

II. Market analysis

 

Product: weak market of ammonium sulfate in November. It began to fall sharply at the beginning of the month and remained weak from the middle to the end of the month. Domestic and foreign demand of domestic ammonium sulfate is weak, the market of coking ammonium sulfate is unstable, and the market is lack of confidence. The main quotation of ammonium sulfate in Central China is about 450-650 yuan / ton, that in Henan Province is 500-650 yuan / ton, that in Hebei Province is 520-750 yuan / ton, that in East China is 500-680 yuan, that in North China is 450-650 yuan / ton, and that in Northeast China is 500-650 yuan / ton.

 

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Industrial chain: domestic fertilizer use in the off-season continues, while agricultural fertilizer use continues to be light. The enthusiasm of terminal fertilizer preparation is not high, and the purchase of ammonium chloride is relatively light. In November, the urea market was mainly weak, and the price went down all the way, which had a certain impact on the ammonium chloride market. The downstream compound fertilizer enterprises are not hot, the overall operating rate is low, the progress of winter storage is slow, the price is difficult to improve, and the market is not optimistic. After the conference on phosphorus and compound fertilizer held in November, there was no substantial favorable policy. The continuous weakness of raw material cost and the difficulty of price determination have led to the low enthusiasm of compound fertilizer enterprises and the weakening of their enthusiasm for taking goods. It is expected that the trend of compound fertilizer will continue to be weak in the later stage, which will cause worrying demand for ammonium sulfate.

 

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in November 2019, there were 21 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which 8 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 9.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities were hydrochloric acid (67.31%), propanone (36.29%) and isopropanol (26.96%). There are 58 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, 18 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 21.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were epichlorohydrin (- 31.74%), aniline (- 19.11%) and caustic soda (- 18.56%). The average rise and fall of this month was – 1.05%.

 

III. future forecast

 

Analysts of ammonium sulfate of business association think that the positive factors of ammonium sulfate Market are not clear at present, and the demand of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is not significant. The domestic and foreign demand of domestic ammonium sulfate has not improved, and the price of manufacturers is firm. Coking grade ammonium sulfate Market is short of payment support. It is predicted that the internal ammonium sulfate will keep stable operation in the later stage, and the coking ammonium sulfate will fluctuate mainly in narrow range.

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MTBE market price fell slightly this week (November 24-30)

I. price trend

 

Business agency: the market price of MTBE fell slightly this week (November 24-30)

 

The price of MTBE at the end of this week was 5567 yuan / ton, down 1.42% from the previous week’s price, according to the data of business agency.

 

II. Market analysis

 

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Product: on December 2, the price of domestic refined oil was adjusted or the line was increased. The mentality of MTBE market players was OK. This week, domestic MTBE prices fell first and then rose, with a slight decline overall.

 

Industry chain: this week, the international crude oil price was running at a high level, and the domestic gasoline market price slightly increased by 1.48%. The domestic gasoline market demand was boosted for a short time.

 

MTBE Market: MTBE manufacturers began to reduce prices and promote sales at the beginning of this week. As soon as the downstream needs to recover rapidly, the price of MTBE manufacturers stopped falling and rebounding under the improvement of shipment. In the southern market, the demand for downstream oil transfer is still average, but the local supply is still at a low level, and the manufacturer’s quotation slightly increased under the market spot shortage. At the same time, the price of alkylated oil rose this week. The market price of MTBE fell first and then rose this week, but the overall price fell slightly.

 

III. future forecast

 

MTBE product analyst of energy branch of business club thinks: MTBE just needs to be stable, and the overall shipment of manufacturers is relatively smooth. Short term demand in the domestic gasoline market has boosted market prices, and MTBE market prices are expected to rise steadily in the short term.

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The price of fertilizer has generally declined, and the market of ammonium phosphate has been “closed” (11.1-11.27)

I. price trend

 

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium on November 1 was 1966 yuan / ton, and that on November 27 was 1950 yuan / ton, down 0.85% in the month. On November 27, the monoammonium phosphate commodity index was 65.27, unchanged from yesterday, down 35.27% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.84 (2011-09-13), and up 5.12% from the lowest point of 62.09 on September 19, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

 

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on November 1 was 2366 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on November 27 was 2285 yuan / ton, down 3.45% in the month. On November 27, DAP commodity index was 68.16, down 1.49 points from yesterday, a record low in the cycle, down 33.81% from 102.98, the highest on October 8, 2011. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

II. Market analysis

 

Monoammonium: in November, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market continued to be weak, and the enterprise operating rate was about 40%. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Anhui Province is 1850-2000 yuan / ton, and the commencement is stable. In Hubei Province, the factory price of 55% powdered ammonium is 1850-1950 yuan / ton, and that of 60% powdered ammonium is 2000-2100 yuan / ton. The market in Henan Province has maintained stable operation, and 55% of ammonium powder has been quoted at about 1850 yuan / ton, with stable start-up. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1900-2050 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 1900 yuan / ton.

 

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Diammonium: in November, the domestic market of diammonium phosphate was in a downturn, and the enterprise’s operating rate was about 40%. At present, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Hubei Province offers 2200-2300 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Shandong Province 2250-2350 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou Province 2300-2500 yuan / ton, and 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Anhui Province 2300-2500 yuan / ton.

 

Industrial chain: at present, the domestic sulfur market demand is sluggish, the port inventory continues to increase, and the consumption is slow. The operators are obviously short of the future market, and the atmosphere of stalemate is strong. On the other hand, after the phosphate compound fertilizer meeting, there was no clear message guidance in the market, the external support was weak, the on-site negotiation atmosphere was cold, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was low. The domestic phosphorus ore market continued to operate in a downturn. At the beginning of the month, prices in some areas were slightly adjusted. The prices of some mining enterprises in Guizhou and other areas remained high. The prices of phosphorus mining enterprises in a small part of Kaiyang area were slightly lower due to the impact of demand, and the prices in the near future remained stable. Liquid ammonia market may continue to maintain weak, mainly due to weak demand in most regions, resulting in overstocking of inventory. The recent market does not rule out the possibility of continuing to explore low.

 

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 46th week of 2019 (11.18-11.22), there are 1 rising commodity, 3 falling commodities and 5 rising and falling commodities. The main commodities that rose were ammonium sulfate (0.30%); the main commodities that fell were ammonium chloride (- 2.63%), urea (- 2.35%), monoammonium phosphate (- 0.85%). This week’s average was – 0.61%. In the 46th week of 2019 (11.18-11.22), there are 1 rising commodity, 2 falling commodities and 2 rising and falling commodities in the price list of phosphorus chemical industry. The main commodities that rose were yellow phosphorus (0.53%); the main commodities that fell were monoammonium phosphate (- 0.85%), phosphoric acid (- 0.62%). This week’s average was – 0.19%.

 

III. future forecast

 

Analysts of business association ammonium phosphate think that the market of ammonium phosphate keeps low. In some enterprises, the price of raw materials has fallen due to the maintenance of devices, the downstream procurement is cautious, the demand side has not improved, and the winter storage market is worrying. No favorable policies have been issued after the conference. It is expected that the market of ammonium phosphate will continue to be weak in the later stage. It is suggested to pay attention to the headlines of phosphorus chemical industry to learn more about the market.

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The power coal market will maintain a weak balance in the short term (11.18-11.22)

I. price trend

 

According to the monitoring of business association, the price of power coal continued to remain weak last week (11.18-11.22). At the beginning of the week, the price of power coal was around 559 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, it was around 558 yuan / ton, with a slight decline of 0.18% overall.

 

II. Analysis of influencing factors

 

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With the arrival of domestic winter heating season, the domestic demand for power coal has improved, which has certain support for the price of power coal. According to the business agency, as of November 21, the inventory of six coastal power plants was 16.7227 million tons, with a daily consumption of 640500 tons and a usable life of 26.1 days.

 

The number of imported coal in China has decreased from a month on month basis. In the short term, power coal will be supported from the supply side. According to the latest data released by the General Administration of customs, in October 2019, China imported 11.53 million tons of power coal (including bituminous coal and sub bituminous coal, but excluding lignite, the same below), an increase of 2.47 million tons year on year, an increase of 27.26%, a decrease of 2.02 million tons month on month, a decrease of 14.91%. From January to October 2019, the total import of power coal was 107.05 million tons, an increase of 5.24 million tons, or 5.15%.

 

III. future forecast

 

Business analysts believe that: on the one hand, the supply of power coal is still sufficient, on the other hand, with the arrival of winter heating season demand has improved, overall, the price of power coal will maintain a weak balance in the short term.

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Last week, polysilicon prices slightly weakened, and trading volume was relatively low (11.18-22)

I. price trend

 

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, last week (11.18-22) domestic polysilicon did not maintain a strong market in the first ten days, the price fell slightly, the market gradually cooled down, and the pressure of supply and demand increased. As of November 22, according to the business club’s monitoring, the overall decline of domestic polysilicon solar energy level was 0.54%. The average external quotation of enterprises was 60000-62000 yuan / ton, and the current price fell 25% year on year About%. At present, the domestic single crystal is still stable, the price range of compact material is 70000-730 million yuan / ton, and the price difference of single polycrystal is not much different from that of the first ten days.

 

II. Market analysis

 

First of all, from the perspective of market supply, it is still dominated by oversupply. In the middle of the year, the domestic polysilicon supply performance is sufficient. By the end of the week, the domestic polysilicon enterprises have reached the peak of operation rate, and the early-stage maintenance devices have basically started, but some enterprises have not yet recovered to full production operation, but the overall market supply is still slightly greater than the demand, especially the high proportion of polysilicon materials Silicon material factory. At present, there are 15 polysilicon producing enterprises in China, with an actual capacity of 396000 tons / year. Although some of them produce single crystals, the production of polysilicon materials is still close to 50% of the production. At present, the price of polysilicon is loose, but there is not much reduction. This is mainly because the inventory of polysilicon materials in silicon factories has not been greatly increased, and the enterprises do not have the intention to reduce the inventory. Even though the downstream ingot enterprises cut the operating rate or even shut down, this week’s price has not been significantly reduced.

 

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Let’s take a look at the demand situation: since November, the demand for polysilicon has gradually cooled, and the market price drop in the middle of the year has not been significantly expanded, mainly because the downstream demand is rigid, but the downstream polysilicon chips present the same situation of unstable supply and demand as the upstream. The operating rate of downstream silicon chip manufacturers is only about 40%, because the downstream ingots, battery chips and other enterprises are open Because of the sharp decline in the production rate, the demand for polysilicon has been reduced. Most polysilicon manufacturers also execute early orders, and the new single rate is lower than that in October, so the price naturally declines to a certain extent.

 

III. future forecast

 

In the future, business analysts believe that the polysilicon market is loose, which is mainly due to the lack of timely follow-up of demand. From the current high operating rate of enterprises, the inventory pressure of enterprises is still under control, which also confirms the relative rigidity of market demand. However, there are also some variables in the medium term of the supply side, because there are some newly put into operation devices that release part of the production capacity. Moreover, there are still a few enterprises that start with load reduction. If the start-up load of enterprises in the later stage is further increased, there will be periodic excess supply. In particular, in the current situation that market demand has peaked, we cannot be overly optimistic about polysilicon market. It is expected that the market will be weak and stable in the near future, and we cannot rule out the possibility of continuing to explore in a small scale.

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