1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of February 24, the average price of domestic ethanol market was 5760 yuan / ton, which was 4.35% higher than that of the same period last month and 9.37% higher than that of the same period last year. The domestic ethanol market continued to decline.
2、 Market analysis
Product: weak operation of domestic ethanol market. After the price in Henan has been lowered for many times, the downstream demand is still weak, the inventory of enterprises has increased, some enterprises have been shut down, and the shipping price of enterprises has been continuously reduced; the price in East China has been lowered again, and the price continues to weaken under the support of shipping mentality; the stock of large factories in Northeast China is not high at present, and the order delivery price remains stable; the supply of goods in South China has increased significantly, which is bad for South China Regional market prices continued to be weak.
Industry chain: corn: corn price fluctuates in a narrow range. The state has issued various policies to guarantee the supply of corn in the market. The market volume has increased steadily. The shortage of local corn supply has been alleviated, and the overall price rise has slowed down. At present, the surplus grain inventory at the grass-roots level is still on the high side, and the pressure of centralized grain sales still exists. However, due to the long period of resumption of pig production and the resurgence of avian influenza, the market is generally pessimistic about the demand expectation. It is expected that in late February and March, with the improvement of the epidemic prevention and control situation, the transportation link will gradually resume smooth, the supply of corn will gradually recover in the later period, and the space for corn price to continue to rise will be gradually limited, and it is expected that the price will continue to be strong and bullish in the short term.
Ethyl acetate: domestic ethyl acetate market fell. After the support of ethanol surge in the early stage, the quotation price of ethyl acetate continued to be high, followed by the increase of spot supply in the market, and the market competition intensified on the basis of the continued weak demand in the downstream. In addition, the recent consecutive decline of raw material acetic acid has given the cost side of ethyl acetate a benefit, and the market has been passively declining under the negative situation in all aspects.
3、 Future forecast
Business alcohol analysts expect that some areas of the short-term ethanol market are likely to decline. Although the inventory of large factories in Northeast China is not high, but the current price has increased compared with that of before. With the price of Henan continues to weaken, some traders have not high desire to take goods from Northeast China, which will cause a decrease in the volume of goods shipped from Northeast China, and enterprises may reduce their quotations to stimulate the shipment. In East China, the profits of production enterprises are still good, but with the inflow of low-cost goods, there is no rule out that there is a holding It is possible to continue the downward trend; at present, there is still a small profit in the price of Henan market, and it is unlikely that enterprises will continue to reduce prices substantially under the support of costs. It is expected that the short-term Henan market will be slightly weaker; due to the obvious increase in the supply of goods in South China, and the current stable situation of downstream demand, it is expected that the short-term South China market will continue to decline.