Acrylonitrile market slightly declined

Recently (2.1-2.7), the acrylonitrile market has slightly declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of February 7th, the bulk water price of acrylonitrile in the market was 9225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.67% from 9287 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At present, the mainstream price for self extraction of acrylonitrile from tanks in the market is between 9050 to 9400 yuan/ton. The price of raw material propylene has slightly increased, and the cost supports acrylonitrile; Approaching the end of the lunar calendar, the main downstream ABS started at a low level, with a small amount of inquiries about acrylonitrile; The overall supply of acrylonitrile units is loose, and the acrylonitrile market is mainly weak before the holiday.

 

Recently (from 2.1 to 2.7), domestic acrylonitrile units have been operating steadily with sufficient supply.

 

Recently (2.1-2.7), the propylene market for raw materials has slightly increased, supported by the cost of acrylonitrile. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of February 7th, the domestic propylene price was 6933 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.32% from 6843 yuan/ton on the 1st.

It is understood that the downstream ABS production is at a low level of 6.2% near the Spring Festival, and the demand for acrylonitrile is significantly weakening; At present, acrylic fiber factories are frequently receiving purchase orders from yarn factories at the beginning of the month, with overall low production and weak demand for acrylonitrile; The nitrile rubber plant is operating normally, with slight support for the demand for acrylonitrile; The acrylamide industry is operating at a low rate of 4.2%, and demand for acrylonitrile is weakening. Overall, the demand for acrylonitrile before the holiday was weak, and the supply of acrylonitrile was loose, resulting in a weak market consolidation.

 

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Market forecast: Business Society’s acrylonitrile analyst believes that although the price of raw material propylene for acrylonitrile has slightly increased, the supply is still sufficient; In addition, with weak demand support, it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to maintain a narrow consolidation trend before the holiday.

Narrow volatility in the antimony ingot market near the holiday (January 29th to February 5th)

From January 29 to February 5, 2024, the antimony ingot market in East China slightly increased, with prices reaching 91500 yuan/ton this week, up 0.83%.

 

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K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has been continuously rising in recent times.

 

This week, the price of European strategic small metal antimony rose, reaching $12750/ton as of February 5th, unchanged. Currently, supply is tight and the market atmosphere is strong.

 

The antimony ingot market has been continuously rising since mid December, reaching 91500 yuan/ton this week, and gradually slowing down after breaking through the 90000 yuan/ton mark. From the perspective of supply and demand, due to the increasing difficulty of importing antimony ore from overseas, the domestic mining supply is still tight. As the Spring Festival approaches, the comprehensive operating rate is low, and the reluctance of smelters to sell is further strengthened. The price support mentality is strong, and with the high overseas prices, the overall price support sentiment in the domestic spot market is also strong. In terms of downstream demand, as the holiday approaches, the pre holiday stocking demand has basically ended, and the current market holiday atmosphere is relatively strong. In the future, Business Society predicts that the antimony ingot market will remain temporarily stable in the short term due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, and will continue until the end of January. With the increase in production by antimony ingot manufacturers, there may be room for market prices to fall.

 

The upward trend of the antimony oxide market has slowed down this week. With the approaching Spring Festival holiday and a stronger festive atmosphere in the market, downstream replenishment has basically ended, and the antimony oxide market is temporarily stable.

 

Related data:

 

On February 4th, the base metal index was 1160 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 28.22% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 80.69% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

 

On February 4th, the non-ferrous index was 1092 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.00% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 79.90% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

 

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 5th week of 2024 (1.29-2.2), there were a total of 4 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were sponge titanium (0.97%), antimony (0.83%), and gold (0.79%). There are a total of 7 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with the largest decline are zinc (-3.03%), tin (-2.96%), and nickel (-1.76%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.3%.

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Reduced inquiries and slight fluctuations in the ammonium sulfate market (1.29-2.4)

1、 Price trend

 

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate market was 883 yuan/ton on January 29th, and 880 yuan/ton on February 4th. This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market price fell by 0.38%.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market prices have remained stable with minor fluctuations. As the Spring Festival approaches, the ammonium sulfate market has seen a decrease in inquiries and average trading on the market. Affected by snowfall in some parts of China, transportation is not smooth. As of February 4th, the mainstream market price for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Hebei Province is around 810 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation for ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 890-920 yuan/ton.

 

3、 Future Market Forecast

 

According to analysts from Business Society, the price of ammonium sulfate has been stabilizing recently. The pre holiday market transaction atmosphere weakened, and downstream procurement enthusiasm weakened. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market will remain stable and operate steadily in the short term.

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Nickel prices fell weakly this week (1.29-2.2)

1、 Trend analysis

 

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According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Business Society, nickel prices have slightly declined this week. As of February 2nd, the spot nickel quotation was 128516.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.76% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 43.88%.

 

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, nickel prices have fallen by 7 and risen by 5 in the past 12 weeks, with a slight decline in nickel prices recently.

 

On the macro level, the macro atmosphere has clearly turned bearish. The unexpectedly strong growth rate of US retail data in December has put pressure on expectations of early interest rate cuts, and the US dollar index has soared to a one month high.

 

Supply side: Capacity expansion and clearance cycle. In December 2023, the national refined nickel production reached a total of 24500 tons, a month on month increase of about 6% and a year-on-year increase of 40.57%; It is expected that the national refined nickel production will reach 23700 tons in January 2024. Major overseas nickel companies resumed production in the third quarter, with good profits and weak willingness to proactively reduce production.

 

In terms of demand: Some terminal industries have high prosperity, but the growth rate of demand is not as fast as supply. Alloy is the main downstream of pure nickel, and there is a very good demand for alloys in military and shipping industries. Enterprises “replenish inventory at low prices, but do not purchase at high prices.”. The demand for electroplating is relatively stable. Stainless steel inventory returned to neutral levels, and steel mills reduced production in January. The space for nickel beans used in new energy has been squeezed out. Last week, nickel prices rebounded, suppressing demand.

 

In summary, weak cost support and downstream buying on dips, coupled with policy uncertainty factors in the subsequent Indonesian election, have led to a more pronounced attitude of downstream buying on dips and not buying at high prices. Nickel prices have accumulated inventory for three consecutive weeks after rebounding. It is expected that nickel prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level.

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The price of formaldehyde in Shandong’s market is rising

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong has recently risen. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1203.33 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1210.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.55%. The current price has dropped by 2.94% year-on-year.

 

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formaldehyde

 

Recently, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region has slightly increased. From the above chart, it can be seen that the formaldehyde market has been mainly fluctuating slightly, with an increase this week. As of February 1st, the mainstream market price in Shandong region is 1150-1280 yuan/ton. This week, the price of raw material methanol has shown an upward trend, but downstream panel factories have poor demand, and market trading sentiment is average. Formaldehyde manufacturers are shipping normally, and the market is slightly rising with costs.

 

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market is operating with a narrow upward trend. During the week, there were relatively few socially available spot goods, coupled with the impact of weather and other factors on unloading speed. At the same time, the transportation cost from the northwest production area to the sales area market increased, leading to a significant increase in domestic methanol prices. As supply gradually recovers, downstream receiving sentiment is average, and the market is mainly wait-and-see.

 

Recently, the price of raw material methanol has risen, with good cost support. However, due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, the demand for on-site consumer terminals has continued to be poor, and the transaction volume in the formaldehyde market is average. Therefore, the formaldehyde analyst of the Chemical Branch of Shengyishe predicts that the formaldehyde price in Shandong will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the near future.

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The high price of precious metals fluctuated horizontally in January, and is expected to continue in February

In January, precious metal prices first fell and then rose, reaching a high level horizontally

 

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 31, 2024, the spot market price of gold was 481.10 yuan/gram, an increase of 0.17% compared to the spot market price of gold at the beginning of this month (January 1), which was 480.29 yuan/gram. During the month, the gold price first fell and then rose, and the overall high level fluctuated widely.

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the average silver market price on January 31, 2024 was 5952.33 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.25% compared to the average silver market price of 5967.33 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (January 1).

 

From November 2022 to early February 2023, precious metal prices significantly increased. From March to the end of April, due to the impact of the US banking crisis, precious metal prices once again entered a period of skyrocketing. Silver prices began to fall in May, while gold remained relatively strong. In June, gold prices hit a high level and silver prices began to rise. After July, gold prices became stronger. In mid to late September, precious metal prices were affected by news from the Federal Reserve, leading to a high level correction. In October, due to geopolitical factors, the risk aversion sentiment rose and continued to rise. In early November, the high range was weak and fluctuated horizontally. At the end of the month, precious metal prices resumed, and silver saw a stronger monthly increase than gold. Silver prices slightly declined in December, while gold prices remained relatively strong. In January, precious metal gold and silver fluctuated horizontally at high levels.

 

Macro fundamentals for January

 

Overseas macro:

 

1. Markit’s manufacturing PMI unexpectedly expanded in January, and the service industry also rebounded.

 

2. The manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone rebounded beyond expectations in January, reaching a nine month high.

 

Domestic macro:

 

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on January 31st, the domestic comprehensive PMI output index in January was 50.9%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, continuing to exceed the critical point, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises continue to expand. In January, the non manufacturing business activity index was 50.7%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, above the critical point, indicating that the non manufacturing industry continues to expand steadily. In January, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the manufacturing industry was 49.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a rebound in the level of manufacturing prosperity.

 

Logic of Precious Metals Market in January

 

Factors affecting the fluctuation of precious metal prices in January:

 

1. The policy factors of the Federal Reserve and the dynamic changes in market expectations of when the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates.

 

2. Geopolitical factors have intensified the geopolitical tension in the Middle East region.

 

3. Due to financial attributes, the willingness of speculative funds to take profits has increased after the price of precious metals reached a new high.

 

In January, we analyzed the reasons for the high level horizontal fluctuations in precious metal prices, as follows:

 

Negative:

 

The price of precious metals is already at a relatively high level, and there is a profit taking motive in the capital market.

 

favourable:

1. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike cycle is gradually coming to an end and entering a rate cut cycle, which logically favors interest free assets such as precious metals. According to CME’s “Federal Reserve Observation”, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in the range of 5.25% to 5.50% in February is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2.6%. The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged by March is 33.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 65.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 1.7%. But debt reduction has become one of the tightening policies.

 

2. Geopolitical factors such as the Red Sea incident provide an expectation of hedging demand on an emotional level.

 

In February, we believe that there is a high probability of sideways fluctuations in precious metal prices.

 

Geopolitical factors have led to sustained high demand for central bank purchases worldwide. It is reported that the net purchase volume of global central banks in 2023 was 1037 tons, only a decrease of 45 tons from the record breaking 1082 tons in the previous year. Geopolitical factors such as the Red Sea incident may lead to uncertainty in inflation data, and also make the future monetary policy path of European and American central banks uncertain. We preliminarily believe that the policy path may still remain ambiguous in the short term and gradually become clear after March. It is expected that there will be a high probability of sideways fluctuations in February.

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The market price of isopropanol increased in January

1、 Price trend

 

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According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the market price of isopropanol increased in January. On January 1st, the average price of isopropanol in China was 7890 yuan/ton, and on January 30th, it was 8170 yuan/ton. The price increased by 3.55% during the month.

 

The market price of isopropanol increased in January. In the first ten days, the market price of acetone rose rapidly, confidence in isopropanol increased, the market improved, and inquiries from enterprises increased. The manufacturer’s quotation was relatively firm and upward. In mid month, market trading slowed down, and the isopropanol market temporarily stabilized and consolidated. In the latter half of the year, the isopropanol market remained strong and upward, with downstream restocking at the end of the year and immediate orders. As of now, the majority of isopropanol market quotations in Shandong region are around 7900-8100 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 8300-8500 yuan/ton.

 

In terms of raw material acetone, overall in January, the domestic acetone market price first rose and then fell, and overall, the price increased. On January 1st, the average price of acetone was 7062.5 yuan/ton, and on January 30th, the average price was 7225 yuan/ton. The price increased by 2.3% during the month. At present, the intention of terminal factories to restock has slowed down, and the trading atmosphere in the market has slightly declined with the market downturn. Transactions are limited, and it is expected that acetone will maintain a strong adjustment state.

 

In terms of propylene, the market average in early January was 6868 yuan/ton, with an average price of 6930.75 yuan/ton on January 30th, a monthly increase of 0.91%. In January, the upstream of propylene showed mixed ups and downs, with average cost support, while downstream derivatives showed mixed ups and downs. The main downstream of polypropylene slightly increased, but production was not high, suppressing demand for propylene. The propylene analyst from the Chemical Branch of Shengyishe believes that the current wait-and-see atmosphere in the propylene market is becoming stronger, and downstream entry into the market is cautious. It is expected that the price center in the short term will be unstable and there is a possibility of a downward trend.

 

3、 Future Market Forecast

 

An isopropanol analyst from the Chemical Branch of Shengyishe believes that in January, raw materials acetone and propylene rose one after another, providing strong cost support. As the end of the year approaches, downstream and traders are restocking more at the end of the year, and the market trading situation is good. It is expected that the isopropanol market will temporarily stabilize, consolidate and operate in the short term by the end of the year.

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Viscose short fibers remain stable and strong, with a slight increase in price

Last week (January 22-28, 2024), the market for viscose short fibers remained stable and strong, with manufacturers mainly shipping and prices showing signs of upward adjustment. The overall stability of downstream cotton yarn is relatively strong, with an overall increase in sales. The prices quoted by yarn factories have slightly increased, and discounts have been slightly reduced. The operating load has slightly decreased to around 66%, and inventory has been basically maintained.

 

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, last week (January 22-28, 2024), the overall price of viscose short fibers remained stable and increased. As of January 28th, the domestic factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13060 yuan/ton, an increase of 220 yuan/ton or 1.71% compared to last week.

 

Cost wise: Last week (January 22-28, 2024), the price of raw material dissolved pulp slightly decreased, but cost support remains strong. The price of imported broad-leaved dissolved pulp is around 880 US dollars per ton, and the price of coniferous dissolved pulp is around 910 US dollars per ton. At present, the production of dissolved slurry in Hunan and Shandong facilities in China is priced at around 7400 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease in price. Actual orders are being negotiated.

 

Supply and demand: Last week (January 22-28, 2024), the operating rate of the adhesive short fiber industry was basically maintained, and the overall industry load is currently around 82.8%. Downstream procurement enthusiasm has improved, actively replenishing goods, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers has slightly decreased. The human cotton yarn factory mainly consumes inventory, and the enthusiasm for replenishment has increased. The human cotton yarn is stable and relatively strong, resulting in an overall increase in demand. The supply of low-priced goods in the market has slightly decreased, but the overall improvement is still limited, and market confidence is still insufficient.

 

Downstream cotton yarn market

 

Last week (January 22-28, 2024), the overall market for human cotton yarn remained stable and strong, with yarn mills offering higher prices and slightly reduced discounts. Overall shipments were average, and the operating load of human cotton yarn slightly decreased to around 66%, while inventory remained basically maintained. Most cases of slight losses maintain production, and the market lacks confidence in the later stage. As of January 28th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first-class) was 17325 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton or 0.87% compared to last week.

 

Future Market Forecast

 

The price center of raw material dissolution pulp is strong, with strong cost support. Downstream cotton yarn factories are approaching the holiday period, and their enthusiasm for replenishment is not high. The trading atmosphere in the viscose short fiber market will be light. The market lacks confidence in the later stage and is bearish on the market before the Spring Festival. After last week’s price adjustment, analysts from Business Society predict that the market for viscose short fibers and artificial cotton yarn will continue to stabilize and operate in the short term.

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The price of ethylene oxide slightly rebounded this week, rising by 1.54% within the week

This week, the price of ethylene oxide slightly increased, with a 1.54% increase during the week. According to data from Business Society, as of January 26th, the average market price of ethylene oxide in China was 6600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week; From a regional perspective, the epoxy ethane market in East China is priced at 6600 yuan/ton externally; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the South China market is 6600 yuan/ton; The listed price of epoxy ethane in North China is 6600 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the central China market is 6600 yuan/ton.

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Overview of the ethylene oxide industry chain

 

The main downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer enterprises have low inventory, relatively stable production, and relatively stable demand for ethylene oxide. The rest of the downstream enterprises mainly operate steadily; From the recent upstream and downstream product prices, it can be seen that downstream prices have started to rise, increasing profit margins and strengthening support for the price of raw material ethylene oxide in the short term.

 

Since mid to late December 2023, the price of ethylene glycol has remained strong, and some factories have begun to operate the appropriate conversion of ethylene glycol.

 

Short term supply may slightly increase, but prices are unlikely to improve in January

 

The demand for downstream products of ethylene oxide remains stable, and recently, ethylene oxide has been operating steadily. The supply side is affected by factors related to production conversion, resulting in an improvement in supply expectations. The main downstream industries are starting construction, and it is expected that the price of ethylene oxide will fluctuate strongly in the short term.

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Low demand, calcium carbide prices remain stable this week

Recent price trends of calcium carbide

 

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region is temporarily stable this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China was 3000 yuan/ton, and the weekend price decreased by 22.08% year-on-year.

 

Insufficient upstream support and weakened downstream demand

 

From the supply side perspective, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have remained stable this week, with manufacturers operating at a low level and average inventory levels.

 

The upstream blue charcoal market has slightly declined, while the downstream PVC market prices continue to weaken. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal was around 1060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week, indicating insufficient cost support. The PVC market price fluctuated and fell this week, dropping from 5550 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5538 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.22%. Weekend prices fell by 10.92% year-on-year. The PVC spot market is still in good condition, and the trading situation is average. The manufacturer’s quotation is mainly stable. Considering that the end of the year is approaching, some small processing plants are considering holiday issues, downstream demand is slowing down, enterprise inventory is high, and actual transactions are cautious.

 

Calcium carbide may experience a volatile decline in the future market

 

In late January, the calcium carbide market may experience narrow fluctuations and mainly decline. The downstream PVC market has slightly declined, downstream demand has weakened, raw material blue charcoal prices have slightly declined, and cost support is insufficient. In the future, it is expected that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will fluctuate and fall narrowly in late January, with consolidation being the main trend.

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