In May 2026, the domestic mixed xylene market fluctuated, showing an overall trend of initial decline, slight rebound in the middle, and another decline at the end of the month. The market center of gravity shifted downward throughout the month, and the overall market closed down. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from May 1st to 28th, the domestic mixed xylene market price decreased from 6813.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6704.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a cumulative price decrease of 1.6% during the period.
Cost aspect:
The overall cost support for mixed xylene in May was weak, and the market trend was closely linked to international crude oil and naphtha. International crude oil fluctuates frequently within the month, and there is a lack of sustained upward momentum overall. The periodic weakening of prices has led to synchronous pressure on the naphtha market. The decline in raw material prices for refining directly lowers the comprehensive production costs of refineries, making it difficult to form a strong bottom line for mixed xylene. Even if crude oil experiences a brief rebound during this period, driving up raw material prices slightly, the upward cycle is short and the magnitude is limited, resulting in insufficient transmission of cost benefits. Overall, the cost side has always been weak, which has become an important factor in the overall decline of mixed xylene prices this month.
Supply side:
In May, the overall supply of mixed xylene in the domestic market was loose. The operation of mainstream refinery facilities in China remains stable and the overall operating status is good, with only a few facilities undergoing short-term maintenance, which has a weak impact on the overall supply output. The stable release of export goods from refineries in the region, coupled with the normal arrival and storage of imported goods at the port, further supplements domestic circulation resources. The overall circulation of goods in the market is sufficient, and the inventory on the trading side remains at a regular level, indicating some competitive pressure on shipments. Affected by the overall weakening of the market, some merchants have voluntarily offered discounts to accelerate the circulation of goods, and the loose supply pattern continues to suppress the market price rebound space.
Demand side:
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price trend of PX in the domestic market remained stable from May 1st to 28th. As of May 28th, the executed price in the four major regions of East China, North China, Central China, and South China was 9900 yuan/ton, unchanged from May 1st. The main equipment operated stably, and the product sales situation was normal.
International market: In May, the price of para xylene (PX) in the Asian region fluctuated downward. As of May 26th, the closing price of the para xylene market in Asia was 1068-1070 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 1089-1091 US dollars/ton CFR China. The price has decreased by $198 per ton compared to April 29th.
The downstream demand performance in May was flat, and the follow-up efforts for essential needs were insufficient, making it difficult to drive the market to strengthen. The mainstream downstream of mixed xylene includes aromatic solvents, isomerization units, polyesters, coatings, and other fields. The overall production pace of various industries is slow, and the production enthusiasm is not high. The release of demand in the terminal consumer market is limited, downstream enterprises have poor finished product shipments, and inventory turnover is slow. As a result, downstream procurement tends to be cautious and mostly adheres to the on-demand procurement model, with few occurrences of centralized inventory replenishment. At the same time, there is a certain intention to lower raw material prices. Although there has been a slight rebound in temporary local demand, the coverage is relatively narrow and cannot reverse the overall weak demand situation. The demand side has always failed to provide effective support for the market.

Market forecast:
Based on the current market fundamentals, the domestic mixed xylene market will continue to operate mainly in a range of fluctuations in the short term. The cost side will be affected by the uncertainty of international crude oil, and the support strength will fluctuate. The loose supply pattern is also difficult to tighten significantly in the short term. Coupled with the slow recovery of downstream demand, the driving force for a significant increase in market prices is insufficient. However, as some refining units enter the maintenance cycle, the market supply of goods is expected to gradually tighten. At the same time, if the international crude oil market gradually stabilizes and recovers, cost side benefits will gradually emerge. In addition, with the gradual recovery of traditional demand in downstream industries, the willingness of terminal procurement is expected to slowly increase. Under the influence of multiple factors, the subsequent decline of the mixed xylene market will gradually slow down, and there is a possibility of the market stabilizing and recovering slightly. Focus on international crude oil price fluctuations, refinery equipment maintenance progress, port inventory changes, and downstream industry start-up and procurement trends in the future.

In the second half of May, there was a shift in the formaldehyde market pattern, showing a trend of bottoming out and rebounding, completely reversing the continuous downward trend since April. As of May 26th, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province was reported at 1377 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.75% from the beginning of the month.

Driving factor analysis
1. Supply side: Proactive production reduction under continuous losses is the core support for price rebound
In mid May, the entire formaldehyde industry suffered serious losses, and manufacturers voluntarily reduced their operating rates. The national formaldehyde operating rate fell from around 50% in early April to 25% -30% in late May. The supply side contracted significantly, and the supply-demand pattern shifted from loose to tight balance, providing the most core underlying support for price rebound.
2. Demand side: The marginal improvement at the end of the off-season is the core catalyst for price rebound
In late May, the traditional off-season in the sheet metal industry came to an end, and some southern sheet metal manufacturers began stocking up in advance for the decoration peak season in late June, resulting in a clear marginal improvement in demand; At the same time, formaldehyde prices fell to a low level throughout the entire cycle, and downstream adhesive and coating manufacturers concentrated on replenishing inventory at low prices, releasing essential needs in a concentrated manner, directly driving a rapid rebound in prices.
3. Cost side: Methanol stabilizes at a low level, and manufacturers’ willingness to raise prices has significantly increased
In late May, methanol prices fluctuated at a low level without a significant downward trend, and cost support remained stable. Formaldehyde manufacturers no longer needed to hedge against cost declines by lowering prices, and their willingness to raise prices significantly increased. At the same time, the rebound in formaldehyde prices has driven processing profits to gradually recover from severe losses to near breakeven, and manufacturers have further strengthened their price push, forming a positive cycle of price rebound.
Market forecast:
It is expected that the formaldehyde market will experience strong fluctuations, with room for rebound and clear resistance above.
Fundamentals: The pattern of supply contraction will not change in the short term, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to raise prices; The traditional decoration peak season is approaching, and the marginal improvement on the demand side will be further enhanced; Supported by the decrease in port inventory and maintenance of some facilities, methanol still has a slight upward potential in the short term, with stable cost support.
Technical aspect: The short-term downward trend has been completely reversed, with the 10 day moving average turning upwards and prices above all short-term moving averages. A bullish trend has formed, and upward momentum still exists; Around 1420 yuan/ton above is the high point in mid April, which is also the pressure level of the 60 day moving average, with certain resistance and limited rebound height.

As of May 24th, the average market price of acetic acid was 3093.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton or 0.32% compared to the price of 3083.33 yuan/ton on May 18th.

Recently, the domestic acetic acid market has been mainly consolidating. The raw material methanol is still at a high level during the same period, and the cost pressure of acetic acid still exists; On the supply side, the recovery of acetic acid plants is slow, enterprise inventory is low, market sentiment is supportive, and acetic acid quotations are stabilizing; The demand in the terminal market is weak, downstream transactions are average, and there is urgent need to follow up on market purchases. The market fundamentals are poor, and the price of acetic acid fluctuated narrowly within the week.
Recently, the raw material methanol market has fluctuated and declined. As of May 24th, the average price in the domestic market was 3163 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.77% compared to the price of 3220 yuan/ton on May 18th. The arrival volume of methanol at the port is low, inventory continues to deplete, and the price focus is relatively strong; Domestic methanol plant maintenance, low inventory provides good support for market mentality; Downstream parents are following up as needed, and the market is limited in its pursuit of high prices, with methanol fluctuating at high levels during the week.
The downstream acetic anhydride market is running weakly, with the average ex factory price of acetic anhydride dropping from 5800 yuan/ton to 5625 yuan/ton from May 18th to 24th, a decrease of 3.02%. The raw material acetic acid is being processed and operated, with average cost support and insufficient downstream purchasing on the demand side. The market trading atmosphere has weakened, and the acetic anhydride market has a bearish sentiment, resulting in a weak downward adjustment in prices during the week.
Market forecast: Currently, the operating rate of acetic acid is not high, and the supply side support is still acceptable. The price of raw material methanol is high, and cost pressure still exists. However, downstream demand is weak, and the transaction volume in the acetic acid market is average. There is a game of internal dynamics in the market. It is expected that the acetic acid market will stabilize and operate in the short term, and the market supply situation will be closely monitored in the future.

LLDPE (7042) had an average price of 8441 yuan/ton on May 15th and 8386 yuan/ton on May 22nd, a decrease of 0.65%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 11300 yuan/ton on May 15th and 11116 yuan/ton on May 22nd, a decrease of 1.62%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on May 15th was 10320 yuan/ton, and on May 22nd it was 10237 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.80%.

Supply side: Maintenance support weakened, overall marginal looseness. Although there is still some support for the loss of equipment maintenance during the week, the early maintenance equipment has been restarted one after another, and the industry’s operating rate has continued to rise from a low level, gradually showing pressure on the overall supply side. The overall social inventory is at a neutral to high level, with some varieties showing signs of accumulation. Coupled with the replenishment of imported goods, the trend of loose market supply has not changed, which continues to suppress prices.
On the demand side: The off-season characteristics are obvious, with rigid procurement being the main focus. The traditional peak season for agricultural film has basically come to an end, and the terminal operating rate continues to operate at a low level, causing the core driving force for polyethylene to disappear. The demand in other downstream fields such as packaging, injection molding, and pipe materials is also flat, with most orders being short-term essential needs. Downstream enterprises can purchase as needed, and market transactions are sluggish.
Cost aspect: High oil prices, strong bottom support. Crude oil has been repeatedly affected by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, with prices fluctuating at high levels, providing strong bottom support for the market and limiting the potential for significant price declines.
If there are no unexpected changes in crude oil or downstream demand, polyethylene prices are likely to maintain their current weak and volatile pattern. The rebound height is limited by demand, and the downward space is limited by cost support. Pay attention to changes in crude oil trends, downstream transactions, and equipment dynamics.

1、 This week’s core price performance

This week, the propylene market showed a pattern of rising, falling, and weak consolidation. As of May 19th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 9214.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.95% compared to the beginning of this month (9494.33 yuan/ton). The highest daily price during the week reached 9297.67 yuan/ton, and the lowest fell to 9214.33 yuan/ton, with an overall weekly fluctuation of 1%.
Core driving factors:
1. Supply side: The most critical bearish factor in the propylene market this week comes from the continuous increase in supply side: refineries and PDH units that were previously under centralized maintenance have been restarted one after another, and the overall operating rate of the industry has steadily rebounded. The supply of market goods has gradually increased, directly suppressing the upward space of prices.
2. Demand side: The profit margins of downstream major products such as polypropylene, epichlorohydrin, and butanol are limited, and the procurement of propylene raw materials is mainly based on essential needs, lacking sustained stocking and chasing after price increases.
During this week’s propylene price correction, the downstream willingness to receive goods did not significantly increase, and market transactions were mainly based on small orders for essential needs, lacking large-scale buying support, which made it difficult for prices to form an effective rebound and could only maintain a weak consolidation pattern.
4、 Future outlook:
In the short term, the pattern of weak consolidation in the propylene market will continue:
On a technical level, the downward signal of the 10 day moving average crossing the 20 day moving average has been confirmed, and the short-term moving average is bearish, indicating further downward momentum in prices; Fundamentally, the logic of incremental growth on the supply side is still ongoing, and it is difficult for the demand side to have an unexpected explosion. The market lacks strong support, and the price center of gravity is likely to continue to slowly shift downwards, testing the support level around 9000 yuan/ton.
In the medium to long term, the fundamentals of the propylene market have not completely deteriorated:
The price is still in the high range of one year, and the overall profitability of the industry is still acceptable; If the subsequent supply side increment falls short of expectations or there is a seasonal rebound in downstream demand, there is still a possibility for the market to recover and rebound.

According to the data from Shengyishe Spot News, the domestic PP market recovered after a decline in the first half of May, and the price fluctuations of various brand products were relatively narrow. As of May 15th, the benchmark price for PP drawing offered by Shengyi Society was 9556.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.07% from the beginning of the month.
price trend
In terms of raw materials:
At the beginning of May, high-level officials from both the United States and Iran in the Middle East released positive signals, indicating that the long-term gap in crude oil supply will gradually narrow. However, in the short term, there are differences in the market’s judgment on the Middle East conflict. After the holiday, the international crude oil market experienced a severe sell-off, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil futures both falling sharply, hitting a two-week low. This week, the geopolitical premium of crude oil rebounded, and the market fluctuated in the first half of the month. The demand for propylene in the market is stable, but some companies have recently restarted their facilities. The expected increase in supply suppressed some of the gains and led to a pullback from the current high level. Overall, the PP raw material market is fluctuating, and recently it has provided sufficient support for PP costs.
Supply side:
During the first half of May, the production capacity of domestic PP enterprises stopped and returned, and the overall operating rate remained in the historical low range. As of the deadline for publication, the overall load of the domestic industry is around 50%, and the weekly output has fallen below 680000 tons. The current inventory position is around 730000 tons, and the overall supply performance is tight. Overall, the supply side has strong support for spot prices.
In terms of demand:
Affected by the rising market trend at the end of the first quarter, the current PP price is still at a mid to high level, and the downstream market in the industry remains resistant to high prices. The overall trading atmosphere is cautious. The current buyer camp is picking up goods on demand, with average warehouse building operations, and often seeing scattered small orders that can be picked up as needed. Meanwhile, due to the high cost pressure, the improvement in operating rates of small and micro end enterprises is limited, while large and medium-sized enterprises continue to stabilize and acquire goods. The demand side is generally in a wait-and-see situation, with average support for PP.
Future forecast
The domestic PP market prices fluctuated narrowly in the first half of May. Fundamentally speaking, maintenance in May maintained a concentrated trend, industry load levels bottomed out, port imports remained low, and spot resources in the market turned tight. However, with the expectation of weakened costs and weak demand, analysts from Business Society PP believe that the current PP market is weak in both supply and demand, and there is a lack of action in the future market, which may maintain the consolidation trend.

The domestic formic acid market as a whole has shown a continuous sideways consolidation trend, with stable prices and no significant fluctuations. The market supply and demand are in a weak balance state. As of May 11th, the benchmark price of 85% industrial grade formic acid in China was 2400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20% month on month and 14.29% year-on-year.
At this stage, the price of formic acid remains stable, but the inherent supply-demand contradiction in the market has gradually emerged. The main influencing factors are concentrated in three aspects: supply, inventory, and downstream demand
On the supply side, overall stability has been maintained, with no significant reduction in production capacity. The market supply is sufficient, providing basic support for price stability, and there has been no price action caused by supply shortages.
At the inventory level, due to the concentrated shipment of low-priced orders before the May Day holiday, some manufacturers have experienced a decrease in inventory during the holiday period compared to the previous period, which has to some extent alleviated inventory pressure. However, from the overall industry perspective, inventory is still in the upper middle range and has not formed a situation of inventory shortage, which has limited support for prices.
The demand side is the core weakness of the current market, and downstream manufacturers generally hold a bearish attitude, with low purchasing willingness. They mainly purchase for essential needs and replenish a small amount of inventory, without centralized stocking behavior, resulting in insufficient market transaction activity. Due to the lack of favorable market support during this stage, effective demand pull cannot be formed, resulting in the overall market being in a weak equilibrium state, making it difficult to promote price increases.
Outlook for the future: Short term stability is difficult to change, and downside risks still exist

1、 Market Review
This week, the imported 62% white potassium market showed an overall pattern of “high-level stalemate and narrow range consolidation”. The benchmark price of Shengyi Society remained stable at 3550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month, with a daily increase or decrease of 0%. From the trend of the past three months, after experiencing a surge and decline in early March and a sideways consolidation from mid March to mid April, the price once again came under pressure and fell back in late April. As of May 8th, it has fallen to 3550 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 4.1% from the high point of 3700 yuan/ton this year. Currently, it is in the mid to high range of the past year, slightly higher than the annual average of 3496.08 yuan/ton, and there is still 300 yuan/ton of support space from the low point of 3250 yuan/ton this year.
The market price shows a clear differentiation trend: the mainstream price of 62% white potassium at the port is concentrated at 3150-3550 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 30-50 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; The on-site price of domestically produced 60% crystals has increased by 30 yuan/ton simultaneously, reported at 3300-3330 yuan/ton. Part of the scarce supply is driven by traders’ reluctance to sell, and prices continue to decline, with a significant “price but no market” characteristic in the market.
Fundamental influencing factors
1. Supply side: Port inventory has dropped to a historical low of 1.94 million tons, and traders’ available sources of goods remain tight, with some scarce sources experiencing supply disruptions, providing strong support for the market. The pace of supplementing imported new goods is relatively slow. Although the overall import supply is loose, the short-term arrival volume is insufficient, and there is a lack of incremental supply to impact the market. Traders have a strong willingness to raise prices.
2. Demand side: Spring plowing is entering its final stage, and agricultural essential procurement is gradually declining. Terminal procurement is mainly based on on-demand procurement, and market trading activity is limited. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprises are restrained by high raw material prices, and their procurement strategies tend to be cautious. New orders are light, and industrial demand is difficult to effectively drive prices.
Price forecast:
Short term: It is expected that the price will fluctuate within the range of 3500-3650 yuan/ton, with core support at 3500 yuan/ton and pressure at 3650 yuan/ton.
In the short term, supported by low port inventory and high prices from traders, prices are difficult to fall significantly. However, the weak demand side also limits the upward space, and it is likely to maintain a high and narrow range oscillation pattern, making it difficult to see a unilateral trend market. If the port inventory continues to decline, there may be a slight increase in the shortage of goods, but the overall magnitude is limited.
In summary, the current imported potassium chloride market is in a game of supply support and weak demand, and the high-level stalemate pattern is difficult to break in the short term. The subsequent market trend will mainly depend on the pace of imported goods replenishment and the recovery of downstream demand. It is recommended to maintain a cautious and wait-and-see attitude and closely monitor changes in core variables.

As of April 29th, the DOP price was 10050.83 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased by 2.03% compared to the April 1st DOP price of 10259.17 yuan/ton. In April, the domestic DOP market as a whole showed a high volatility and slight decline trend, with prices remaining at the high level of the year. However, due to cost adjustments and weak demand, the upward momentum was insufficient, resulting in a slight weakening during the month.
The crude oil market is transmitted downstream

The crude oil price fluctuated and fell due to the impact of the US Iran ceasefire agreement, leading to a correction in propylene prices, which in turn transmitted to the isooctanol market. In April, the isooctanol price fell from 9582 yuan/ton to 8933 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 6.77%, resulting in weakened cost support for DOP and becoming the main driving force for price correction.
The price of raw material isooctanol fluctuated and fell in April
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 29th, the price of isooctanol was 8866.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.32% compared to the price of 9266.67 yuan/ton on April 1st. Driven by the linkage between crude oil and propylene, as well as changes in supply and demand patterns, coupled with the downward trend of the business and social price moving averages, the isooctanol market has shown a clear downward trend. In April, the isooctanol market presented an overall pattern of “high volatility, first strong and then weak”.
Phthalic anhydride market fluctuates and falls
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 29th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 8966.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.78% compared to the price of 9416.67 yuan/ton on April 1st. The ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Iran have eased the transmission of geopolitical risks downstream, coupled with insufficient demand follow-up, resulting in a significant shift in the focus of phthalic anhydride prices. However, there are many shutdowns and maintenance of raw material benzene enterprises, and the supply of benzene has been severely reduced. The support for the rise in benzene prices still exists, and the space for the decline in phthalic anhydride prices is limited due to cost support.
Supply and demand analysis of DOP market in April
The supply and demand pattern of the DOP market in April showed the characteristics of “supply exceeding demand, weak balance of rigid demand”: supply side production fell but the total amount was sufficient, inventory was high, and exports were limited. Stable demand on the demand side but insufficient new additions, cautious procurement, and weak terminal strength. Overall supply is loose, demand is weak, supply exceeds demand, prices are under pressure at high levels, and are prone to decline but difficult to rise, relying solely on cost and export support.
Supply side: loose supply, inventory pressure
The operating load of DOP equipment in plasticizer enterprises showed a trend of “stabilizing first and then decreasing, with a slight rebound at the end of the month” in April. At the beginning of the month, the industry operating rate was 65% -69%, with mainstream large factories operating at full capacity and stable supply of goods; Mid month profit contraction, weak demand, some enterprises reducing load/maintenance, and operating rate dropping to around 55%; At the end of the month, some devices were restarted, and the operating rate slightly increased to 60%, but still lower than the level at the beginning of the month. Although the construction started to decline in April, the accumulation of inventory in the early stage combined with effective supply resulted in a loose overall supply of goods, and there was no regional shortage. In addition, downstream procurement has slowed down, manufacturers’ inventory continues to rise, and manufacturers’ willingness to lower prices and sell goods has increased, suppressing price rebounds.

Demand side: Stable demand, insufficient new additions, overall weakness
In April, downstream demand was mainly driven by rigid demand, lacking support from new orders. The demand for basic fields such as wire and cable, packaging film, etc. remains stable, and enterprises maintain low replenishment; However, due to the sluggish real estate industry, the demand for PVC pipes, profiles and other end products has shrunk, and some small and medium-sized enterprises in North and East China have experienced parking and holiday situations, further suppressing the demand for DOP; Downstream enterprises have a cautious purchasing mentality and generally adopt a strategy of “not chasing high prices, not hoarding goods, and purchasing as needed”. The market transactions are light, making it difficult to support price increases.
Market Overview and Future Expectations
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in early April, the market was strongly bullish due to the residual momentum of the March surge, with manufacturers raising prices and traders being reluctant to sell; At the end of the month, prices tended to stabilize, and the market entered a wait-and-see state. Downstream restocking was carried out on demand, and overall cautious sentiment dominated the market.
In the future, on the cost side: affected by the aftermath of the Middle East geopolitical situation, crude oil and propylene prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate widely, isooctanol prices may rebound slightly, phthalic anhydride prices are expected to continue, and cost support remains, limiting the downward space for DOP prices. On the supply side, some DOP devices will undergo maintenance and restart in May, and the operating rate is expected to rise to 65%, further easing supply; On the demand side, the downstream PVC industry is still in the maintenance season, and the PVC operating rate is expected to decrease to around 77%. There is no significant improvement in terminal demand, and downstream demand is still dominated by rigid procurement, with a pattern of oversupply continuing. Short term bearish sentiment continues, with traders mainly reducing their holdings at high prices, manufacturers’ willingness to raise prices weakening, and downstream procurement being dominated by overall cautious sentiment, making it difficult to form upward momentum. It is expected that DOP prices will experience a slight fluctuation and decline in the future.

Aluminum prices fluctuated widely in April, with a slight decline. At the beginning of the month, the price fell, but in the middle of the month, it surged sharply due to sudden factors, and then quickly fell back. The closing price at the end of the month fell by about 0.87% compared to the beginning of the month. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 30, 2026, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market was 24403.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.87% from the market average price of 24616.33 yuan/ton on April 1; Compared to the high point of the month (4.19), the market average price was 25173.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.06%
The general logic of aluminum price operation in April is as follows:
At the beginning of the month, there was a downward fluctuation (from April 1st to April 14th):
Weak supply and demand expectations dominate domestic demand, leading to a sluggish peak season and lower than expected destocking. The operating rate of terminal processing enterprises remains low, traditional downstream orders such as real estate and automobiles are weak, and there is a shortage of essential procurement; At the same time, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity continues to be released, and the social inventory shows a trend of accumulating inventory, suppressing spot prices.
The weak US dollar and macroeconomic sentiment have been suppressed. At the beginning of the month, the US dollar index rebounded in stages, coupled with market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates for a longer period of time, putting pressure on the valuation of aluminum products denominated in US dollars. The weak linkage between domestic and foreign markets dragged down domestic spot prices.
Mid month rapid rise (April 15th to April 19th):
The overseas supply shock triggered the market, and the geopolitical disturbance in the Middle East brought about a hard supply gap. Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, and there has been a large-scale shutdown of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the Middle East (accounting for about 55% of the region’s production capacity). LME inventories continue to deplete, overseas spot premiums soar, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets rapidly expands, driving up domestic aluminum prices passively.
The export arbitrage window is open, and domestic goods are flowing out. The structural shortage overseas has pushed up the price of London aluminum, expanding the price difference between domestic and foreign markets to the arbitrage zone. Domestic aluminum ingot export orders have surged, and the spot supply in East China has tightened, supporting a significant increase in prices.
The resonance of financial emotions amplifies the increase. The overseas supply black swan event triggered the influx of speculative funds, and the long positions in the futures market increased, driving the spot market to make up for the rise, forming a “futures cash linkage” upward trend.
3、 Late period surge and fall (April 20th to April 30th):
Concerns about overseas supply have eased marginally, and emotions have receded. The market’s panic over the situation in the Middle East is gradually dissipating, and expectations for the resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz are heating up. London Aluminum has fallen from its high position, the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has narrowed, the export arbitrage window has closed, and pressure for domestic goods to return has emerged.
Re pricing of domestic high inventory and weak demand fundamentals. The domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory is still at a high level, and there has been no substantial improvement in terminal demand. The previous rise lacked fundamental support, and bullish profit taking triggered a price correction.
The strengthening of the US dollar combined with pre holiday fund hedging. The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve has driven the rebound of the US dollar index, putting overall pressure on commodities; Combined with the risk aversion and exit of funds before the May Day holiday, the pace of spot purchases slowed down, and market trading was light. The end of month price fell back to 24403.33 yuan/ton.