According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of styrene in Shandong was 9550 yuan/ton on April 16th, and 9690.00 yuan/ton on April 23rd, an increase of 1.47%. The current price has increased by 15.24% year-on-year.

styrene

The market price of styrene continued to rise this week. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has continued to rise in the past three months, and the recent market trend has been good. The pure benzene market is strong at a high level, with good cost support, domestic supply, and a decrease in mainstream warehouse inventory. Downstream terminal demand is mainly in demand, and the styrene market continues to rise.

Cost side

Recently, the overall increase in pure benzene in China has been good. The price difference between Shandong and East China is still relatively wide, with some sources of goods heading south for arbitrage. The demand side in the East China market is actively stocking up, and spot traders are buying up and entering the market. Most refineries in Shandong continue to raise their prices. After the price increase, market buying continued and transactions were better.

Supply side

In April, there were many inspections of the styrene unit. On the 18th, Shandong Lihuayi’s 80000 ton/year styrene unit produced 160 tons per day, and a new 720000 ton/year unit was shut down for maintenance. Styrene inventory remained low, and domestic supply remained at a relatively low level, which was beneficial for the styrene market.

Demand side

Recently, all three downstream markets of styrene have risen. The PS market has seen a slight increase, driven by the demand for home appliance packaging. The fast material circulation speed in East and South China has accelerated, and the overall transaction atmosphere has accelerated. The market is expected to rise. Recently, the domestic ABS market has seen a high rise. The domestic ABS industry has taken on the pattern of load reduction and adjustment in the early stage, with an average weekly operating rate of around 56%. Although there has been a resumption of work in Dagu, Tianjin recently, there will be varying degrees of load reduction in Haijiang, Shandong, and Lihuayi in the future, and the supply of goods on site will still be reduced. The supply side has strong support for ABS spot goods. EPS is supported by the cost side, and the terminal air conditioning industry is entering a peak season. EPS is rising in the market under dual positive conditions.

Technical analysis

There is a high possibility of an increase in the future market of styrene, and spot prices may continue to rise. According to the prediction model of the Business Society Commodity Analysis System, since December 17, 2023, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started an upward trend. Currently, the two moving averages continue to rise in the same direction. On April 21, 2024, it is estimated that the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. a 7-day moving average crossing the 30 day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is 38.11%.

Historical price monitoring [low to medium]: Since the beginning of 2024, the price of styrene has been continuously in an upward trend. The current monitoring positions are 1-year high, 2-year medium high, and 3-year medium high. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of styrene in the past three years is 8577.09 yuan/ton, with a median value of 8465 yuan/ton, a minimum value of 7163.33 yuan/ton, and a maximum value of 9766.67 yuan/ton. The low price difference (compared to the lowest price difference in the past three years) is 2526.67 yuan/ton, and the top price difference (compared to the highest price difference in the past three years) is -76.67 yuan/ton.

According to the styrene data analyst from Business Society, the recent decline in crude oil prices has led to poor cost support, and some of the previously repaired styrene units have restarted. There is an expectation of an increase in domestic styrene industry production, while analysts from Business Society predict a slight decline in the styrene market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic price of chloroacetic acid has decreased this month. As of April 22, the price of chloroacetic acid was 3175 yuan/ton, and on April 1, the price of chloroacetic acid was 3200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.77%.

Upstream aspect:

Upstream acetic acid: In April, the acetic acid market continued to be strong. In the early stage, the failure and shutdown of the Jiangsu Sopu unit, as well as the decrease in the load of the Tianjing unit, led to a significant decrease in the utilization rate of on-site production capacity, a decrease in manufacturer inventory, and a sustained increase in the strong acetic acid quotation. As downstream restocking continues, the demand for purchasing in the market gradually stabilizes, and the trading atmosphere in the market weakens. The acetic acid price runs steadily, and the overall on-site market is on the high side of observation.

Upstream liquid chlorine: The liquid chlorine market continued to decline in April. The market supply and demand in central China are running steadily, and some chlor alkali enterprises in Dongying have stopped exporting liquid chlorine. However, the demand side has poor purchasing sentiment, and prices continue to decline.

Downstream aspect:

In April, the price of indigo dye remained stable, and external demand in the clothing market was better than domestic demand. The operating rate remained above 90%. However, there was significant pressure from the domestic demand market, and dye enterprises actively reduced their inventory.

Business Society Chloroacetic Acid Analyst believes that in the cost composition of chloroacetic acid, liquid chlorine is not suitable for storage and transportation, which has a significant impact on the cost price of chloroacetic acid. In the future, attention should also be paid to the trend of liquid chlorine and downstream demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic PTA spot market showed a trend of first rising and then falling this week (April 15-19). As of April 19, the average market price in East China was 5948 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.18% compared to the beginning of the week.

This week was mainly affected by cost factors. In the early stage, the geopolitical situation was tense, and European and American crude oil futures rose to a new six month high. In addition, multiple sets of PX devices were shut down unexpectedly, and the cost side trend was strong, pushing up the PTA market. However, as the geopolitical situation eased, crude oil prices fell. At the same time, PTA devices restarted, and new production capacity produced qualified products, making PTA supply sufficient, and PTA spot prices fell.

Looking at the future market, the current environment for crude oil is relatively complex, and the performance of oil prices is also relatively stagnant and anxious. As of April 18th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was reported at $82.10 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was reported at $87.11 per barrel. Macro and demand are suppressing oil prices in the short term, and the space for further upward movement of oil prices is being suppressed. In addition, given that the current geopolitical tensions have not escalated, crude oil has the potential to mitigate risk premiums and reshape valuation expectations. But the risk has not been lifted, coupled with the start of the North American driving season, gasoline demand is expected to rise, which will provide support for oil prices. Overall, the supply and demand game in the oil market will intensify in the short term, and there is a greater possibility of oil prices maintaining high volatility.

There are still some maintenance plans for PX devices in Asia, but Zhejiang Petrochemical and Hengli Petrochemical, with a total of 4.5 million tons of devices, will resume operation. Therefore, the overall supply of PX is gradually recovering, and the demand side is performing well due to the expected restart and load increase of PTA factories. It is necessary to be cautious of the announcement of subsequent maintenance arrangements for some PTA factories. The high inventory situation of domestic PX continues, and prices are expected to fall and consolidate.

PTA’s own supply will also increase. Jiatong Energy may restart a 2.5 million ton PTA unit on April 23, while Yisheng Dalian’s 2.25 million ton PTA unit is currently operating at around 80%, with plans to increase load starting next week. In addition, there are currently no other planned large-scale PTA device maintenance or restarts, and attention still needs to be paid to unplanned maintenance.

At present, the operating load of the downstream polyester industry is stable around 90%, and the order performance is average. Some weaving and texturing factories may purchase goods appropriately, but their willingness to accept high priced raw materials is low, and they still have a wait-and-see attitude. The polyester filament factory has a strong Poly Run mentality, with a weak trading atmosphere and a stable to weak market transaction focus. Cotton mills still have a strong demand for polyester staple fibers, but weak terminal demand is dragging down market sentiment, with small purchases being the main focus.

Business Society analysts believe that the focus of cost support is weakening, high PTA inventory makes spot supply sufficient, and downstream demand is average. Therefore, in the short term, PTA fundamentals are difficult to be optimistic, and prices may continue to adjust weakly.

Recently, the market price of isooctyl acrylate has fluctuated and declined. As of April 17th, the benchmark price of isooctyl acrylate in Shengyishe was 12625.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.81% compared to the beginning of this month (13125.00 yuan/ton). This week, the average ex factory price in East China is around 12500 yuan/ton, in North China it is around 12600 yuan/ton, and in South China it is around 12700 yuan/ton.

Cost side:

Recently, the price of isooctanol has fallen and stabilized. As of April 16th, the quoted price of isooctanol was 9620 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.48% compared to the fluctuation of isooctanol price of 9480 yuan/ton on April 7th; Compared to April 1st, the price of isooctanol at 10060 yuan/ton fluctuated and decreased by 4.37%. After a sharp drop in April, the price of isooctanol stabilized at a low level, and there was a rebound trend in the price of isooctanol after the Qingming Festival. In late March, the market price of isooctanol plummeted sharply, with the lowest transaction center in East China dropping to 9195 yuan/ton. After the price fell to a low level, the enthusiasm for buying and replenishing increased. At the end of the month, the market ended with a oversold rebound, but there was a lack of obvious positive news to boost confidence in the market. After the market rebounded, the sustainability of high price transactions was not strong.

Supply and demand side:

At present, the production capacity utilization rate of acrylic acid isooctyl ester enterprises remains low, the on-site spot supply has decreased, and the pressure on enterprise shipments is relatively small; From a demand perspective, there has been an increase in downstream terminal demand, with actual orders mainly negotiated.

Overall:

It is expected that the market for isooctyl acrylate will stabilize next week, and some manufacturers are still in the equipment maintenance season. The impact of raw materials on isooctyl acrylate will strengthen, and downstream weak demand may deepen. Meanwhile, the inventory of isooctyl acrylate enterprises is relatively low, and the quotation may remain high, indicating a stable overall market operation.

This week, domestic butyl acrylate is currently in a stable and upward trend. As of April 16th, the benchmark price of butyl acrylate in Shengyishe was 9500.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.21% compared to last week (9480.00 yuan/ton). The average price in the East China market is 9500 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price in the North China market is 9600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price in the South China market is 9500 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous working day.

From a demand side perspective:

The delivery pressure of acrylic lotion enterprises is low, and the atmosphere in the field is mainly wait-and-see. 4 Acrylic lotion started or increased by a narrow margin compared with 3. The price of raw material MMA was high and firm, but the infrastructure construction of the terminal market was insufficient. The terminal coating factory was in the off-season, and the support for the demand of lotion was insufficient. The demand for the emulsion remained just in demand. Although the weather turned warmer, the market was generally boosted.

From a supply perspective:

At present, the production capacity utilization rate of domestic butyl acrylate enterprises has decreased, and the on-site supply of goods is tight. The pressure on enterprise shipments is relatively small, and the overall market fundamentals have performed well; The maintenance of main factory equipment has led to a tightening of the overall supply and demand pattern in the market, supporting a rise in prices. Shandong region: At the end of March, some facilities resumed operation, but enterprises mainly executed pre orders in the early stage, with tight spot prices and no pressure on the supply side to raise prices.

Overall:

The rise of butyl acrylate this week is mainly supported by favorable factors such as supply side maintenance and tight spot prices. Analysts from Business Society predict that some facilities will resume work near the end of the month, with a significant increase in on-site supply and difficulty in improving the downstream market atmosphere. The subsequent rise in butyl acrylate may be difficult to maintain.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the CPP market prices have remained stable with some increases this week. As of April 15th, domestic producers and traders have reached 25% μ The mainstream quoted price for m’s CPP film is around 10191.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 0.58% from last week’s average price.

quotations analysis

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of raw material PP has fluctuated and increased this month. The mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7814.29 yuan/ton, which is 0.92% higher than the beginning of this month (7742.86 yuan/ton).

The price of raw material PP first decreases and then increases, and the raw material is operating stronger, with increased cost support. Film companies have low interest rates, and there is not much room for negative profit margins. The operating load rate is at a normal level and the supply is stable.

In terms of demand: Enterprise demand is in the off-season, and downstream enterprises just need to restock. Weak demand.

Future Market Forecast

Negative and bullish are intertwined, and it is expected that CPP prices will weaken and consolidate in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the auction price of crude benzene increased during the period from April 7th to April 12th, 2024, with a price increase of 7308.75 yuan/ton last week and 7488.75 yuan/ton this week, up 2.46%.

In terms of crude oil: Although US crude oil inventories have increased and the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts, concerns about the Middle East situation have not dissipated, and international oil prices have rebounded after falling. On April 11th, international crude oil futures closed lower. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $85.02 per barrel, a decrease of $1.19 or 1.7%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $89.74 per barrel, a decrease of $0.74 or 0.8%.

On April 7, 2024, Sinopec’s listed price for pure benzene was increased by 150 yuan/ton, with a current implementation of 8800 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 8680 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 8800 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 8493 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 8680 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 8800 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly decreased this week. On April 8th, the price of pure benzene was 8723 yuan/ton, and on Friday (April 12th), the price of pure benzene was 8712 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.02% from last week and 16.54% from the same period last year..

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

In terms of the industrial chain, this week’s geopolitical warming has driven up crude oil prices. After the holiday, the pure benzene market followed suit, while the hydrogenated benzene market briefly followed suit. In the later part of the week, crude oil prices declined, and with news of maintenance of downstream devices within the week, the market is expected to have weak demand in the future. The hydrogenated benzene market has given up its gains, and the ex factory price has retreated to pre holiday levels. Currently, most of them remain at 8600 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply, the eighth round of increase in the coke market has quickly landed, with a cumulative decrease of 800-880 yuan/ton. Affected by the profits of coke enterprises, the current production restriction is still relatively high, and the operating rate of coking enterprises continues to decline, currently around 60%. Most coke enterprises still suffer losses. Due to the weak overall demand in the coal, coke, and steel industry chain, coke enterprises have low expectations for production increase in the short term, and will maintain a low operating rate in the near future. The overall supply of crude benzene is tight. In terms of demand, downstream hydrogenation benzene enterprises are still able to start construction this week, and crude benzene will be replenished as needed. Under the boost of tight supply, the auction price of crude benzene continued to rise this week, with a price increase of 130-200 yuan/ton in the Shanxi region of 7300-7380 yuan/ton. Shandong region implemented a price of 7550 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton compared to the previous auction round. In the future, as the May Day holiday approaches, there is a demand for stocking in the downstream market. The supply of crude benzene is tight, and it is expected that there will still be a slight upward trend in the crude benzene market in the near future, boosted by favorable supply and demand.

In the first quarter of 2024, the price center of the domestic adhesive short fiber market shifted upwards. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the overall price of adhesive short fiber increased significantly in the first quarter of 2024. As of March 31st, the domestic factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13540 yuan/ton, an increase of 640 yuan/ton from the beginning of the quarter, with a quarterly increase of 4.96%.

In January 2024, the market price of upstream raw material and main material dissolved slurry remained stable and increased, while the market price of auxiliary material liquid alkali skyrocketed. The sulfuric acid market reversed, and the cost side was well supported; The transaction atmosphere in the downstream cotton yarn market is gradually improving, and the inventory of yarn factories has significantly decreased. The demand for raw materials has increased, and favorable support from the demand side is gradually emerging; Supported by multiple positive news, the inventory of adhesive short fiber manufacturers is tight, and the sentiment of price support is strong. The market price of adhesive short fiber is steadily rising, and by the return of the Spring Festival holiday, the market price of adhesive short fiber has risen to the highest point of 13560 yuan/ton this year. At the end of the season, downstream market demand did not recover as expected, and the new round of signing was not ideal. The actual transaction prices in the market declined, and the market price of adhesive short fibers declined narrowly. As of March 31, the domestic ex factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fibers was 13540 yuan/ton.

Supply analysis

In the first quarter of 2024, the overall supply of adhesive short fibers decreased narrowly compared to the previous quarter. During the season, the equipment of adhesive short fiber manufacturers in Xinjiang region was shut down for maintenance, and the restart time is uncertain; The equipment of the adhesive short fiber manufacturer in Jiangxi region has undergone load reduction maintenance and has now resumed full load operation; The equipment of the adhesive short fiber manufacturer in Shandong region has been partially shut down for maintenance and has not been restarted yet. The overall operating rate of the market has declined, with the industry’s daily operating rate at around 80.23%.

requirement analysis

In the first quarter of 2024, the demand for adhesive short fibers in the market turned from strong to weak. At the beginning of the season, the trading atmosphere in the human cotton yarn market gradually improved, and inventory decreased by about average. In addition, as the Spring Festival approached, manufacturers had a good enthusiasm for stocking up before the holiday, and the demand side support was strong. On site orders were mostly signed until mid March; With the return of the Spring Festival, downstream yarn factories have resumed work slowly. In addition, the high prices of raw materials have increased, and manufacturers have insufficient acceptance of high priced raw materials. They mainly consume early inventory, and the demand side has recovered less than expected. In mid March, a new round of contract signing ended, and downstream factories have maintained on-demand procurement. On site orders have only been maintained for about a month.

Cost profit analysis

In the first quarter of 2024, the average production cost and profit of viscose staple fibers increased narrowly compared to the previous quarter. In the first quarter, the market price of domestically produced dissolved pulp rose from a low point, with an average price of 7450 yuan/ton; The liquid alkali market first fell and then rose, with an average price of 853 yuan/ton; The average price of sulfuric acid is 193 yuan/ton. Overall, the average production cost of viscose staple fiber has increased narrowly, and the price of viscose staple fiber has increased significantly. The profit of the viscose staple fiber industry has turned from loss to profit.

market forecast

Cost side: Currently, the upstream raw material prices are showing a strong trend, providing some positive support for the market. It is expected that the cost side prices of viscose short fibers will not fluctuate significantly in the next quarter, which will have limited impact on market prices.

Supply side: Currently, the overall production of adhesive short fibers in the market remains at a high level, with low inventory from manufacturers. The supply side is performing well, and the industry’s parking and maintenance equipment may restart in the next quarter. It is expected that the market supply will slightly increase in the next quarter.

On the demand side: Currently, there is a shortage of orders in the downstream market, manufacturers are not shipping smoothly, inventory has accumulated, and there is a weak intention to replenish raw materials. More purchases are made on demand, and it is expected that there will be no significant improvement in the demand side in the next quarter.

Overall, the current downstream market demand is weak, and the signing of orders by adhesive short fiber manufacturers is not ideal. In order to promote downstream stocking, manufacturers may lower their prices. However, adhesive short fiber manufacturers have low inventory, coupled with high raw material cost prices, the market price decline is limited. Therefore, analysts from Business Society predict that the market price of adhesive short fiber will decline narrowly in the future.

From April 1st to April 8th, 2024, the antimony ingot market in East China slightly increased, with prices this week at 91250 yuan/ton, up 0.27%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has not fluctuated much recently.

This week, the price of European strategic small metal antimony has remained stable, with a price of $12850/ton as of April 8th, unchanged. Currently, the market is on a wait-and-see basis.

Since the Spring Festival, the antimony ingot market has remained temporarily stable and stable, with a slight decline in the market after January. Recently, the market has returned to stability, and prices have slightly rebounded near the Qingming Festival. The overall market trend in the first quarter remained narrow and fluctuating. From the perspective of supply, smelting enterprises are currently maintaining normal production, and the supply of antimony ingots is relatively stable. However, the mining end still maintains a tight pattern, which has affected the strong mentality of smelters to raise prices and the tight market supply. In terms of demand, downstream industries such as antimony oxide have shown a relatively stable trend in recent times. Enterprises are replenishing their inventory as needed to maintain essential procurement. During this cycle, some downstream enterprises have replenished their inventory due to the impact of the Qingming Festival, which has led to a slight recovery in the market. As the 51 hour holiday approaches, there will be replenishing demand downstream, which will slightly increase market sentiment. In the future, Business Society believes that the demand for downstream holiday restocking will drive a brief rise in the market, and the market will maintain a stable, medium to strong trend in the near future. In the future, the focus will be on the consumption situation of the photovoltaic industry and the impact of environmental policies on the market.

This week, the antimony oxide market remained temporarily stable, while the spot market was weak. Downstream demand replenishment was maintained, and market prices were affected by the stability of the antimony ingot market, with most remaining temporarily stable.

Industry data:

On April 7th, the base metal index was 1208 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 25.25% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 88.16% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On April 7th, the non-ferrous index was 1133 points, an increase of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 26.33% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 86.66% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 14th week of 2024 (4.1-4.5), there were a total of 17 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. Among them, there were 3 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 12% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase are praseodymium neodymium alloy (5.71%), metallic praseodymium (5.70%), and praseodymium oxide (5.59%). There are four products that have experienced a month on month decline, with the top three products experiencing a decline being silicon metal (-0.93%), lead (-0.64%), and cobalt (-0.22%). The average increase and decrease this week was 1.71%.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of stearic acid has slightly declined this week. As of April 7th, the mainstream price of domestic stearic acid (1840) was 8560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.47% from last week, an increase of 1.78% from March 1st, and an increase of 4.14% from January.

2、 Market analysis

Cost side: Malaysian palm oil inventories are low in the external market, exports have improved, and the Malaysian palm oil futures market is rising. Supported by bullish sentiment, the domestic palm oil spot market has risen significantly, with an average market price of around 8660 yuan/ton, up 12.06% from early March. In April, the import volume of soybeans to Hong Kong gradually increased, and South American soybeans were listed one after another. The supply was loose, and the price of soybean oil palm oil rose under pressure.

Demand side: On March 1st, the average domestic PVC price was 5608 yuan/ton, and on April 7th, the average price was 5530 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.39%. The operating load of PVC equipment has slightly increased this week; Downstream demand is still dominated by rigid demand, and there are no obvious positive factors in the market. It is expected that PVC spot prices will continue to be weak and consolidate in the short term.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society believe that as the palm oil market slows down in April, the support for the cost of stearic acid will gradually weaken. There is ample supply on the market, and purchasing enthusiasm will decrease. Downstream markets are more wait-and-see, and transactions tend to be cautious. It is expected that the overall operation of the stearic acid market will remain stable without significant fluctuations next week.