According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market first fell and then rose in November 2024, with an overall downward trend. From November 1st to 29th, the domestic toluene market price fell from 5860 yuan/ton to 5800 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.02% during the period.

In the first half of the month, the overall focus of the toluene market was relatively low, with the disproportionation industry being the main industry in Shandong. The purchasing enthusiasm of other industries was not high, and the overall downstream demand was more rigid. Overall, the toluene market had a strong supply-demand game mentality, with narrow fluctuations in the market trend.

In the second half of the month, the trend of the toluene market slightly increased this week, with an increase in demand for disproportionation and gasoline in Shandong region, supporting the price increase of local refineries. The futures market strengthened, boosting the mentality of the toluene market. Recently, there have been fewer goods arriving at the port, and the port inventory is running at a low level. Overall, the toluene market has slightly rebounded this week, and market sentiment is still positive.

On the cost side: International crude oil maintained a range bound fluctuation trend this cycle, with a wide decline in oil prices by the end of the month. On November 25th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $68.94 per barrel, a decrease of $2.30 or 3.2%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $73.01 per barrel, a decrease of $2.16 or 2.9% The crude oil analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the significant drop in oil prices this time is due to the short-term geopolitical risk reduction caused by the ceasefire news. In the later stage, the trend may still return to the supply and demand fundamentals, as the turmoil in the Middle East has not had a greater impact on crude oil supply than expected by the market. In addition, OPEC’s production control policy will continue to play a regulatory role in oil prices. Considering the current low level of oil prices, it is expected that crude oil will not have a significant downward momentum in the short term, but the market should also be cautious about the risks brought by short-term adjustments.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene quotation first fell and then rose during the cycle, with little fluctuation. Currently, the company is operating normally, with stable plant production and mostly self use products, resulting in stable production and sales. As of November 29th, East China Company quoted 5800 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5800 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 58700-5850 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5750 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and the demand support for toluene is relatively weak

On November 29th, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with the current execution price of 7300 yuan/ton. This price is being implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities are operating stably, with normal sales, and the price is unchanged from October 31st. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of November 28th, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were 779-781 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 804-806 US dollars/ton CFR China, a decrease of 25 US dollars/ton compared to 829-831 US dollars/ton at the end of October.

Market forecast: In the near future, the toluene market will be less affected by crude oil and mainly affected by supply and demand. As the end of the year approaches, negotiations for a new long-term agreement in the market will begin. Currently, there is a strong supply-demand game mentality, and downstream shipments are actively being made. Overall, there is still support on the demand side. It is expected that the toluene market will remain stable in the short term, with slight fluctuations being the main trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate fluctuated weakly in early December. As of December 3, the domestic price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 78400 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.08% from the same period last month at 76800 yuan/ton; The domestic price of battery grade lithium carbonate is 81000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.02% compared to the same period last month at 79400 yuan/ton.

The supply side production continues to recover. Due to a slight rebound in lithium carbonate prices during November, companies have good profits from lithium carbonate after hedging, and manufacturers have begun to release production.

The demand side is seasonally weak, with demand exceeding expectations from the end of October to November. December is the traditional off-season, but due to local subsidies for new energy vehicles and policies such as trade in, orders from car companies are expected to smooth out and there will be no cliff like decline in production scheduling.

The pace of destocking has slowed down, with spot inventory of 108300 tons this week, including 33900 tons of smelter inventory, 29300 tons of downstream inventory, and 45100 tons of other inventory. The destocking pace has slowed down, and the destocking process is mainly concentrated in traders. At the end of the year, there is a demand for capital recovery, and most traders choose to reduce inventory and sell spot goods at discounted prices starting from the end of the year.

Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that it is expected that the supply will be strong and demand weak in December, and the domestic lithium carbonate market will still mainly operate in a range of fluctuations, making it difficult to have breakthrough performance. Specific market information still needs to be monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has mainly fluctuated within a range since November. As of November 29th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 17027 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.02% from 16855 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The high point during the cycle was 17221 yuan/ton, and the low point was 16535 yuan/ton.

The weather in the main production areas of natural rubber continued to improve in early November, and the supply of raw materials from domestic and foreign production areas gradually increased. The price of natural rubber raw materials fell, and the heavy rain in Thailand at the end of the month affected the rubber cutting process. The international price of natural rubber raw materials has rebounded. As of November 29th, the price of Thai glue was 69.00 Thai baht/kg, fluctuating within the month range; The purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production areas in China is 17300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.35% from 17900 yuan/ton at the end of October.

The slight increase in natural rubber inventory in November has a bearish impact on the natural rubber market. As of November 24, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 423500 tons, an increase of 15300 tons from the end of October.

Since November, downstream tire production has remained stable with slight fluctuations, and demand is facing the urgent support of the natural rubber market. As of November 29th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.9%.

Market forecast: Currently, the main focus is on consolidating the range of domestic and international raw material supply improvement; Under the policy of promoting consumption, all tire enterprises are operating steadily, which provides certain support for natural rubber; But the slight increase in Tianjian inventory has brought certain pressure to the market mentality. Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will experience range fluctuations in the short term, with upstream and downstream games being the main focus.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 28th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 1981 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.74% from the reference average price of 2195 yuan/ton on November 1st.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

This month, the domestic urea market prices have weakened and fallen. In the first half of this month, domestic urea prices slightly adjusted. The supply of urea in the market has decreased, and some enterprises have undergone equipment maintenance, resulting in a large number of pending orders. In mid month, the domestic urea market prices fell. The market has strong supply and weak demand, and the supply of urea in the market has increased. Downstream purchases are mainly for essential needs, and procurement is relatively cautious, resulting in a decrease in new order volume in the market. At the end of this month, domestic urea prices were narrowly adjusted, and market trading remained stable. As of November 28th, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1780-1810 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1820-1840 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1800 yuan/ton, and in Liaoning region it is around 1900 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart from September 2, 2024 to November 18, 2024, it can be seen that the domestic urea cycle is characterized by ups and downs. The largest decline in November was -0.23% during the week of November 11th,

Supply and demand situation

In terms of supply, the urea market has ample supply this month. In terms of demand, agricultural demand maintains essential procurement, market trading is average, and transactions are limited. At present, the supply and demand are relatively balanced.

3、 Future forecast

The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the urea market has been slightly consolidating and operating recently. At present, there is no positive news in the market, and there is no significant fluctuation in the market. Terminal demand needs to be released. It is expected that the domestic urea market will mainly experience price consolidation in the short term.

The market price of epichlorohydrin continues to rise this month. The market in Shandong has increased by over 500 yuan/ton, with prices reaching around 9000 yuan/ton. The main reason is the limited availability of spot goods in the market and tight supply. After the price increase, low-priced spot goods are difficult to find, and there has been a decrease in trading orders in the market, with a focus on purchasing small orders for essential needs. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of November 27th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 9062.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.07% compared to the beginning of this month (8625 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors: The price of liquid chloropropene on the raw material side fluctuates. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 27th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6825.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.59% compared to the beginning of this month (6785.75 yuan/ton).

Equipment situation: In early October, the 130000 tons/year propylene method epoxy chloropropane unit of the leading enterprise of epoxy chloropropane was shut down for maintenance. Other manufacturers’ devices are expected to restart by the end of November and further follow-up is needed.

Downstream demand side: With the cold weather in December and the downstream entering the off-season, the demand for epichlorohydrin gradually decreases, and the purchasing sentiment is not positive. The main focus is on purchasing small orders for essential needs.

Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the prices of raw materials on the cost side have fluctuated, downstream demand sentiment is low, and there is a focus on first-time purchases. There is a lack of follow-up on new orders, so raw material purchases should be cautious. With the restart of equipment by major manufacturers, the tight supply situation in the market may be alleviated to some extent. Overall, there may be an increase in the situation of oversupply next month, and the market price of epichlorohydrin may experience a slight decline. More attention still needs to be paid to changes in market prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the 25th, the price of ethyl acetate was 5806.67 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 0.99% compared to the price of 5750.00 yuan/ton on November 18th. Due to the continuous rise in upstream market conditions, favorable cost support, and improved demand, the market sentiment is good, and the ethyl acetate market is running strongly.

This week, the domestic price trend of ethyl acetate is relatively strong and consolidating. At the beginning of the week, downstream follow-up was average, and the raw material market remained stable. Ethyl ester manufacturers slightly lowered their quotations to stimulate shipments. Later, with the continuous rise of upstream acetic acid prices and favorable cost support, ethyl ester prices also increased. At the same time, some on-site equipment loads were reduced, and market supply was reduced. The industry’s mentality was optimistic, and the ethyl acetate market remained strong.

Looking at the future market, there is currently little fluctuation in the ethyl acetate plant, with stable enterprise quotations and downstream purchases following up as needed. There is not much sales pressure on manufacturers, and the raw material market is relatively strong, providing good support for downstream. It is expected that the price of ethyl acetate will remain stable and wait for further developments in the upstream market and downstream follow-up.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market fluctuated and rose from November 18 to 25, 2024. On November 18th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5660 yuan/ton, and on November 25th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5720 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.06% during the cycle. This week, the trend of the toluene market has slightly increased, with an increase in demand for disproportionation and gasoline in Shandong region, supporting the price increase of local refineries. The futures market has strengthened, boosting the mentality of the toluene market. Recently, there have been fewer goods arriving at the port, and the port inventory is running at a low level. Overall, the toluene market has slightly rebounded this week, and market sentiment is still positive.

Cost wise: As of November 21st, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.10 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $74.23 per barrel. This week, international oil prices fluctuated and rose. As of the 19th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.39 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $73.31 per barrel. During this cycle, crude oil prices have fluctuated widely, with little overall change. On the one hand, OPEC’s production reduction plan of 2.2 million barrels per day has been extended until the end of December, which is good news for international oil prices. On the other hand, weak demand in China, India, and other regions has led to continued concerns in the market about demand, which is bearish for the oil market. The recent geopolitical situation remains one of the important factors affecting the crude oil market.

Supply side: Sinopec toluene quotation situation: Currently, the enterprise is operating normally, the production of the equipment is stable, the products are mostly self used, and the production and sales are stable. As of November 25th, East China Company quoted 5800 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5700 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5700-5750 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5750 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and demand support is weak

On November 25th, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with the current execution price of 7300 yuan/ton. This price is being implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities are operating stably, with normal sales, and the price is unchanged from November 18th. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of the closing of the Asian xylene market on November 22, the closing prices were 786-788 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 811-813 US dollars/ton CFR China, a decrease of 16 US dollars/ton compared to the same period last week.

Market forecast: The recent crude oil market trend is volatile, with mixed negative and positive factors, and insufficient guidance for the toluene market. On the supply side, the port is expected to accumulate inventory in the future, but the supply is unfortunately empty. Although there are some positive factors on the demand side, the support is limited. Overall, the supply and demand sides are mixed with negative and positive factors, and it is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate in the short term due to the supply-demand game.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on November 22nd, the domestic cyclohexanone market price reference was 8525 yuan/ton. On November 17th, the domestic cyclohexanone market price reference was 8400 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 125 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.49%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week (11.17-11.22), the domestic cyclohexanone market has experienced a slight recovery. At the beginning of the week, the cyclohexanone market was in a state of consolidation and operation, with little fluctuation in the market. As the weekend approaches, the focus of negotiations in the cyclohexanone market has begun a slight upward adjustment. Cyclohexanone factories and suppliers in Shandong, East China, and Inner Mongolia have raised the shipment price of cyclohexanone by about 100 yuan/ton. As of November 22, the reference market price for cyclohexanone in Shandong region is around 8550-8700 yuan/ton, in East China region it is around 8800-8900 yuan/ton, and in South China region it is around 8900 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply cost: Recently, the market situation for pure benzene, the raw material for cyclohexanone, has shown an upward trend. The cost side has gradually strengthened the support for cyclohexanone, and the cyclohexanone market has risen along with the trend.

In terms of supply and demand: Currently, the supply side of cyclohexanone remains stable, and downstream users of cyclohexanone mainly continue to purchase on demand, with little overall change in the demand side.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market is quiet and mild, and the mentality of the industry is normal. The transmission between supply and demand is still acceptable. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly adjust its range slightly, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, since November 11th, the domestic adipic acid market has experienced a weak decline, with a drop of over 2%. On November 11th, the average market price of adipic acid was 8600 yuan/ton. On November 19th, the average market price of adipic acid was 8400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.33%.

The supply of adipic acid is loose, and the market is weak and declining

Since November 11th, the domestic adipic acid market has continued to decline weakly. The main reason is that the upstream raw material pure benzene market has improved, the cyclohexanone market is weak and stable, the cost support effect is limited, and the terminal demand for adipic acid procurement is average. The main reason for the loose supply of adipic acid is the combination of multiple negative factors. The adipic acid market continues to bottom out and operate weakly. The mainstream market price is 8400-8600 yuan/ton, and the market is mainly weak and stable.

An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the rise of the raw material pure benzene market is supported by positive factors, and the adipic acid market is expected to rebound, with a promising upward trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 18th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8555 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.33% compared to the beginning of this month (8670 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors:

Supply side: Lianyungang major factory releases maintenance news, market atmosphere is tense. In late October, Satellite Chemical released the news of a shutdown at the end of October, with a production capacity of 400000 tons per year. In addition, Shangnong Ruiheng’s 400000 tons per year epoxy propane plant maintained low load operation. At the same time, after the start-up of Shandong Jinling, the load increased slowly, and there was no inventory while limited sales. The market supply was tight, and the price of epoxy propane rose sharply at the beginning of the month.

Raw material side: The prices of raw materials propylene and liquid chlorine have fluctuated. Although the manufacturer has sufficient inventory, downstream demand is weak, and the company reduces profits by selling at low prices, resulting in a decrease in actual trading volume. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 15th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6770.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.22% compared to the beginning of this month (6785.75 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: The downstream demand for polyether polyols is relatively short, with weak sustainability, and export orders are still acceptable. According to customs data statistics from January to September 2024 and market research in October, the total export volume of polyether polyols in 2024 is significantly higher than that in 2023. Overall, downstream new orders are mainly for urgent procurement, with smooth factory scheduling and no pressure on shipments.

Market forecast:

An epoxy propane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that although there is some support for raw material prices, the downstream has a strong wait-and-see attitude, mainly focusing on on-demand procurement, and the transmission of supply and demand is not smooth, resulting in mixed ups and downs of epoxy propane. It is expected that the short-term epoxy propane market will be mainly volatile, and more attention should be paid to market information guidance.