1、 This week’s core price performance

This week, the propylene market showed a pattern of rising, falling, and weak consolidation. As of May 19th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 9214.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.95% compared to the beginning of this month (9494.33 yuan/ton). The highest daily price during the week reached 9297.67 yuan/ton, and the lowest fell to 9214.33 yuan/ton, with an overall weekly fluctuation of 1%.
Core driving factors:
1. Supply side: The most critical bearish factor in the propylene market this week comes from the continuous increase in supply side: refineries and PDH units that were previously under centralized maintenance have been restarted one after another, and the overall operating rate of the industry has steadily rebounded. The supply of market goods has gradually increased, directly suppressing the upward space of prices.
2. Demand side: The profit margins of downstream major products such as polypropylene, epichlorohydrin, and butanol are limited, and the procurement of propylene raw materials is mainly based on essential needs, lacking sustained stocking and chasing after price increases.
During this week’s propylene price correction, the downstream willingness to receive goods did not significantly increase, and market transactions were mainly based on small orders for essential needs, lacking large-scale buying support, which made it difficult for prices to form an effective rebound and could only maintain a weak consolidation pattern.
4、 Future outlook:
In the short term, the pattern of weak consolidation in the propylene market will continue:
On a technical level, the downward signal of the 10 day moving average crossing the 20 day moving average has been confirmed, and the short-term moving average is bearish, indicating further downward momentum in prices; Fundamentally, the logic of incremental growth on the supply side is still ongoing, and it is difficult for the demand side to have an unexpected explosion. The market lacks strong support, and the price center of gravity is likely to continue to slowly shift downwards, testing the support level around 9000 yuan/ton.
In the medium to long term, the fundamentals of the propylene market have not completely deteriorated:
The price is still in the high range of one year, and the overall profitability of the industry is still acceptable; If the subsequent supply side increment falls short of expectations or there is a seasonal rebound in downstream demand, there is still a possibility for the market to recover and rebound.

According to the data from Shengyishe Spot News, the domestic PP market recovered after a decline in the first half of May, and the price fluctuations of various brand products were relatively narrow. As of May 15th, the benchmark price for PP drawing offered by Shengyi Society was 9556.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.07% from the beginning of the month.
price trend
In terms of raw materials:
At the beginning of May, high-level officials from both the United States and Iran in the Middle East released positive signals, indicating that the long-term gap in crude oil supply will gradually narrow. However, in the short term, there are differences in the market’s judgment on the Middle East conflict. After the holiday, the international crude oil market experienced a severe sell-off, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil futures both falling sharply, hitting a two-week low. This week, the geopolitical premium of crude oil rebounded, and the market fluctuated in the first half of the month. The demand for propylene in the market is stable, but some companies have recently restarted their facilities. The expected increase in supply suppressed some of the gains and led to a pullback from the current high level. Overall, the PP raw material market is fluctuating, and recently it has provided sufficient support for PP costs.
Supply side:
During the first half of May, the production capacity of domestic PP enterprises stopped and returned, and the overall operating rate remained in the historical low range. As of the deadline for publication, the overall load of the domestic industry is around 50%, and the weekly output has fallen below 680000 tons. The current inventory position is around 730000 tons, and the overall supply performance is tight. Overall, the supply side has strong support for spot prices.
In terms of demand:
Affected by the rising market trend at the end of the first quarter, the current PP price is still at a mid to high level, and the downstream market in the industry remains resistant to high prices. The overall trading atmosphere is cautious. The current buyer camp is picking up goods on demand, with average warehouse building operations, and often seeing scattered small orders that can be picked up as needed. Meanwhile, due to the high cost pressure, the improvement in operating rates of small and micro end enterprises is limited, while large and medium-sized enterprises continue to stabilize and acquire goods. The demand side is generally in a wait-and-see situation, with average support for PP.
Future forecast
The domestic PP market prices fluctuated narrowly in the first half of May. Fundamentally speaking, maintenance in May maintained a concentrated trend, industry load levels bottomed out, port imports remained low, and spot resources in the market turned tight. However, with the expectation of weakened costs and weak demand, analysts from Business Society PP believe that the current PP market is weak in both supply and demand, and there is a lack of action in the future market, which may maintain the consolidation trend.

The domestic formic acid market as a whole has shown a continuous sideways consolidation trend, with stable prices and no significant fluctuations. The market supply and demand are in a weak balance state. As of May 11th, the benchmark price of 85% industrial grade formic acid in China was 2400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20% month on month and 14.29% year-on-year.
At this stage, the price of formic acid remains stable, but the inherent supply-demand contradiction in the market has gradually emerged. The main influencing factors are concentrated in three aspects: supply, inventory, and downstream demand
On the supply side, overall stability has been maintained, with no significant reduction in production capacity. The market supply is sufficient, providing basic support for price stability, and there has been no price action caused by supply shortages.
At the inventory level, due to the concentrated shipment of low-priced orders before the May Day holiday, some manufacturers have experienced a decrease in inventory during the holiday period compared to the previous period, which has to some extent alleviated inventory pressure. However, from the overall industry perspective, inventory is still in the upper middle range and has not formed a situation of inventory shortage, which has limited support for prices.
The demand side is the core weakness of the current market, and downstream manufacturers generally hold a bearish attitude, with low purchasing willingness. They mainly purchase for essential needs and replenish a small amount of inventory, without centralized stocking behavior, resulting in insufficient market transaction activity. Due to the lack of favorable market support during this stage, effective demand pull cannot be formed, resulting in the overall market being in a weak equilibrium state, making it difficult to promote price increases.
Outlook for the future: Short term stability is difficult to change, and downside risks still exist

1、 Market Review
This week, the imported 62% white potassium market showed an overall pattern of “high-level stalemate and narrow range consolidation”. The benchmark price of Shengyi Society remained stable at 3550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month, with a daily increase or decrease of 0%. From the trend of the past three months, after experiencing a surge and decline in early March and a sideways consolidation from mid March to mid April, the price once again came under pressure and fell back in late April. As of May 8th, it has fallen to 3550 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 4.1% from the high point of 3700 yuan/ton this year. Currently, it is in the mid to high range of the past year, slightly higher than the annual average of 3496.08 yuan/ton, and there is still 300 yuan/ton of support space from the low point of 3250 yuan/ton this year.
The market price shows a clear differentiation trend: the mainstream price of 62% white potassium at the port is concentrated at 3150-3550 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 30-50 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; The on-site price of domestically produced 60% crystals has increased by 30 yuan/ton simultaneously, reported at 3300-3330 yuan/ton. Part of the scarce supply is driven by traders’ reluctance to sell, and prices continue to decline, with a significant “price but no market” characteristic in the market.
Fundamental influencing factors
1. Supply side: Port inventory has dropped to a historical low of 1.94 million tons, and traders’ available sources of goods remain tight, with some scarce sources experiencing supply disruptions, providing strong support for the market. The pace of supplementing imported new goods is relatively slow. Although the overall import supply is loose, the short-term arrival volume is insufficient, and there is a lack of incremental supply to impact the market. Traders have a strong willingness to raise prices.
2. Demand side: Spring plowing is entering its final stage, and agricultural essential procurement is gradually declining. Terminal procurement is mainly based on on-demand procurement, and market trading activity is limited. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprises are restrained by high raw material prices, and their procurement strategies tend to be cautious. New orders are light, and industrial demand is difficult to effectively drive prices.
Price forecast:
Short term: It is expected that the price will fluctuate within the range of 3500-3650 yuan/ton, with core support at 3500 yuan/ton and pressure at 3650 yuan/ton.
In the short term, supported by low port inventory and high prices from traders, prices are difficult to fall significantly. However, the weak demand side also limits the upward space, and it is likely to maintain a high and narrow range oscillation pattern, making it difficult to see a unilateral trend market. If the port inventory continues to decline, there may be a slight increase in the shortage of goods, but the overall magnitude is limited.
In summary, the current imported potassium chloride market is in a game of supply support and weak demand, and the high-level stalemate pattern is difficult to break in the short term. The subsequent market trend will mainly depend on the pace of imported goods replenishment and the recovery of downstream demand. It is recommended to maintain a cautious and wait-and-see attitude and closely monitor changes in core variables.

As of April 29th, the DOP price was 10050.83 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased by 2.03% compared to the April 1st DOP price of 10259.17 yuan/ton. In April, the domestic DOP market as a whole showed a high volatility and slight decline trend, with prices remaining at the high level of the year. However, due to cost adjustments and weak demand, the upward momentum was insufficient, resulting in a slight weakening during the month.
The crude oil market is transmitted downstream

The crude oil price fluctuated and fell due to the impact of the US Iran ceasefire agreement, leading to a correction in propylene prices, which in turn transmitted to the isooctanol market. In April, the isooctanol price fell from 9582 yuan/ton to 8933 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 6.77%, resulting in weakened cost support for DOP and becoming the main driving force for price correction.
The price of raw material isooctanol fluctuated and fell in April
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 29th, the price of isooctanol was 8866.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.32% compared to the price of 9266.67 yuan/ton on April 1st. Driven by the linkage between crude oil and propylene, as well as changes in supply and demand patterns, coupled with the downward trend of the business and social price moving averages, the isooctanol market has shown a clear downward trend. In April, the isooctanol market presented an overall pattern of “high volatility, first strong and then weak”.
Phthalic anhydride market fluctuates and falls
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 29th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 8966.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.78% compared to the price of 9416.67 yuan/ton on April 1st. The ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Iran have eased the transmission of geopolitical risks downstream, coupled with insufficient demand follow-up, resulting in a significant shift in the focus of phthalic anhydride prices. However, there are many shutdowns and maintenance of raw material benzene enterprises, and the supply of benzene has been severely reduced. The support for the rise in benzene prices still exists, and the space for the decline in phthalic anhydride prices is limited due to cost support.
Supply and demand analysis of DOP market in April
The supply and demand pattern of the DOP market in April showed the characteristics of “supply exceeding demand, weak balance of rigid demand”: supply side production fell but the total amount was sufficient, inventory was high, and exports were limited. Stable demand on the demand side but insufficient new additions, cautious procurement, and weak terminal strength. Overall supply is loose, demand is weak, supply exceeds demand, prices are under pressure at high levels, and are prone to decline but difficult to rise, relying solely on cost and export support.
Supply side: loose supply, inventory pressure
The operating load of DOP equipment in plasticizer enterprises showed a trend of “stabilizing first and then decreasing, with a slight rebound at the end of the month” in April. At the beginning of the month, the industry operating rate was 65% -69%, with mainstream large factories operating at full capacity and stable supply of goods; Mid month profit contraction, weak demand, some enterprises reducing load/maintenance, and operating rate dropping to around 55%; At the end of the month, some devices were restarted, and the operating rate slightly increased to 60%, but still lower than the level at the beginning of the month. Although the construction started to decline in April, the accumulation of inventory in the early stage combined with effective supply resulted in a loose overall supply of goods, and there was no regional shortage. In addition, downstream procurement has slowed down, manufacturers’ inventory continues to rise, and manufacturers’ willingness to lower prices and sell goods has increased, suppressing price rebounds.

Demand side: Stable demand, insufficient new additions, overall weakness
In April, downstream demand was mainly driven by rigid demand, lacking support from new orders. The demand for basic fields such as wire and cable, packaging film, etc. remains stable, and enterprises maintain low replenishment; However, due to the sluggish real estate industry, the demand for PVC pipes, profiles and other end products has shrunk, and some small and medium-sized enterprises in North and East China have experienced parking and holiday situations, further suppressing the demand for DOP; Downstream enterprises have a cautious purchasing mentality and generally adopt a strategy of “not chasing high prices, not hoarding goods, and purchasing as needed”. The market transactions are light, making it difficult to support price increases.
Market Overview and Future Expectations
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in early April, the market was strongly bullish due to the residual momentum of the March surge, with manufacturers raising prices and traders being reluctant to sell; At the end of the month, prices tended to stabilize, and the market entered a wait-and-see state. Downstream restocking was carried out on demand, and overall cautious sentiment dominated the market.
In the future, on the cost side: affected by the aftermath of the Middle East geopolitical situation, crude oil and propylene prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate widely, isooctanol prices may rebound slightly, phthalic anhydride prices are expected to continue, and cost support remains, limiting the downward space for DOP prices. On the supply side, some DOP devices will undergo maintenance and restart in May, and the operating rate is expected to rise to 65%, further easing supply; On the demand side, the downstream PVC industry is still in the maintenance season, and the PVC operating rate is expected to decrease to around 77%. There is no significant improvement in terminal demand, and downstream demand is still dominated by rigid procurement, with a pattern of oversupply continuing. Short term bearish sentiment continues, with traders mainly reducing their holdings at high prices, manufacturers’ willingness to raise prices weakening, and downstream procurement being dominated by overall cautious sentiment, making it difficult to form upward momentum. It is expected that DOP prices will experience a slight fluctuation and decline in the future.

Aluminum prices fluctuated widely in April, with a slight decline. At the beginning of the month, the price fell, but in the middle of the month, it surged sharply due to sudden factors, and then quickly fell back. The closing price at the end of the month fell by about 0.87% compared to the beginning of the month. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 30, 2026, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market was 24403.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.87% from the market average price of 24616.33 yuan/ton on April 1; Compared to the high point of the month (4.19), the market average price was 25173.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.06%
The general logic of aluminum price operation in April is as follows:
At the beginning of the month, there was a downward fluctuation (from April 1st to April 14th):
Weak supply and demand expectations dominate domestic demand, leading to a sluggish peak season and lower than expected destocking. The operating rate of terminal processing enterprises remains low, traditional downstream orders such as real estate and automobiles are weak, and there is a shortage of essential procurement; At the same time, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity continues to be released, and the social inventory shows a trend of accumulating inventory, suppressing spot prices.
The weak US dollar and macroeconomic sentiment have been suppressed. At the beginning of the month, the US dollar index rebounded in stages, coupled with market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates for a longer period of time, putting pressure on the valuation of aluminum products denominated in US dollars. The weak linkage between domestic and foreign markets dragged down domestic spot prices.
Mid month rapid rise (April 15th to April 19th):
The overseas supply shock triggered the market, and the geopolitical disturbance in the Middle East brought about a hard supply gap. Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, and there has been a large-scale shutdown of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the Middle East (accounting for about 55% of the region’s production capacity). LME inventories continue to deplete, overseas spot premiums soar, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets rapidly expands, driving up domestic aluminum prices passively.
The export arbitrage window is open, and domestic goods are flowing out. The structural shortage overseas has pushed up the price of London aluminum, expanding the price difference between domestic and foreign markets to the arbitrage zone. Domestic aluminum ingot export orders have surged, and the spot supply in East China has tightened, supporting a significant increase in prices.
The resonance of financial emotions amplifies the increase. The overseas supply black swan event triggered the influx of speculative funds, and the long positions in the futures market increased, driving the spot market to make up for the rise, forming a “futures cash linkage” upward trend.
3、 Late period surge and fall (April 20th to April 30th):
Concerns about overseas supply have eased marginally, and emotions have receded. The market’s panic over the situation in the Middle East is gradually dissipating, and expectations for the resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz are heating up. London Aluminum has fallen from its high position, the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has narrowed, the export arbitrage window has closed, and pressure for domestic goods to return has emerged.
Re pricing of domestic high inventory and weak demand fundamentals. The domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory is still at a high level, and there has been no substantial improvement in terminal demand. The previous rise lacked fundamental support, and bullish profit taking triggered a price correction.
The strengthening of the US dollar combined with pre holiday fund hedging. The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve has driven the rebound of the US dollar index, putting overall pressure on commodities; Combined with the risk aversion and exit of funds before the May Day holiday, the pace of spot purchases slowed down, and market trading was light. The end of month price fell back to 24403.33 yuan/ton.

According to Shengyishe Spot News, as of April 27th, the price of acetic anhydride was 5537.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 662.50 yuan/ton or 10.69% compared to the price of 6200 yuan/ton on April 20th. This week (4.20-4.27), the price of acetic anhydride continued to decrease. The acetic anhydride enterprise’s equipment is running smoothly, and the market supply has increased; Downstream consumers still have resistance towards high priced goods, with a focus on purchasing essential needs and a weak market trading atmosphere; On the raw material side, the price of acetic acid has fallen, and cost support is weak, driving a bearish attitude towards acetic anhydride. Manufacturers have shifted their focus of negotiations downwards, and the acetic anhydride market continues to decline.
Acetic acid market continues to decline
From April 20th to 27th, the price of acetic acid dropped from 4166.67 yuan/ton to 3250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.00%. The operating rate of the acetic acid plant has increased, the supply of market goods has increased, downstream demand continues to be weak, and the enthusiasm for entering the market to purchase is not high. The demand side has suppressed the price of acetic acid, and the fundamentals of acetic acid are bearish. The price market continues to decline, and the cost side has a negative impact on the acetic anhydride market.
Future prospects
The price of raw material acetic acid is weak and weak, the cost of acetic anhydride is bearish, downstream demand support is insufficient, and there is a lack of positive news in the acetic anhydride market. It is expected that the acetic anhydride market will continue to consolidate weakly in the later stage, and specific attention should be paid to changes in the upstream market.

In April, the domestic PX market prices slightly decreased, with an average price of 9700 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 9600 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.03% and a year-on-year increase of 41.18%.
The decline in the crude oil market has led to a collapse in cost support

Due to the ceasefire talks between the United States and Iran, the price trend of crude oil in the middle of the month has declined, resulting in a decline in the trend of naphtha market. The center of gravity of PX raw material costs has shifted downwards, and PX has lost its core support. In addition, the narrowing of the PX stone brain oil price difference and the intensification of corporate losses have further suppressed the willingness to quote, leading to a decline in the PX market trend.
PTA and polyester weaken, with significant negative feedback
Multiple PTA units underwent maintenance in April, leading to a decline in domestic operating rates and a decrease in PX essential procurement. Terminal textile and clothing exports have been impacted by tariffs, with insufficient export orders and high domestic inventory. Weaving production has declined, and polyester factories have maintained essential procurement and are afraid to stockpile goods. The negative feedback transmission from the terminal to PX has weakened the market mentality.
Stable domestic production, concentrated import arrivals, and rising inventory pressure
In April, there were not many domestic PX plant maintenance, and the industry’s operating rate remained at around 80%, with stable supply. The import volume of PX increased month on month in March, and concentrated at the port in early April. Port inventory rebounded, and loose spot prices suppressed prices. The overall operating rate of PX in Asia is not low, with smooth flow of goods within the region and intensified competition for spot goods.
Market forecast: In the short term, the PX market is mainly characterized by strong fluctuations, intensified volatility, and easy to rise but difficult to fall. The core depends on whether the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has eased and the recovery of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz; Progress of load reduction/maintenance and restoration of raw material supply in Asian refineries.

Since April, the domestic trichloromethane market has shown a high level with a slight decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 23, the price of trichloromethane water in Shandong Province was 2800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.45% from 2900 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Maintain a pattern of strong demand driven and cost supported overall.
At the beginning of the month, major factories such as Luxi Chemical quoted 3100 yuan/ton; In the middle of the month, as the market weakened, the mainstream transaction price gradually fell back to 2900 yuan/ton; The mainstream ex factory price has been lowered to 2800 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of 2.33% for the month. At the end of the month, the market remained stable at 2800 yuan/ton (for bulk water ex factory), with high-end negotiations in the range of 2800-2900 yuan/ton.
After the April holiday, the operating rate of methane chloride slightly decreased to around 7.9%, and the supply side was slightly reduced. Some companies conducted routine maintenance, but it did not affect the overall supply.
The raw material methanol remains at a high level of 2100-2300 yuan/ton. As of April 23, the spot price of methanol was 3256 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.38% from 3120 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Due to the strong maintenance of chlor alkali, the price of liquid chlorine is between 400-450 yuan/ton, with a clear cost bottom, which provides strong support for the price.
The demand side is weak, and the core downstream refrigerant R22 is affected by quota reduction, resulting in a year-on-year decrease of 3% -5% in demand. Procurement is mainly based on small orders for essential needs; The demand in the fields of medicine and electronics is stable, but the volume is limited, making it difficult to drive the market.
Analysts of methane chloride data believe that the market weakened slightly in April due to weak demand and loose supply, but the cost bottom is obvious and prices are difficult to fall deeply. As the cooling peak season approaches in May, downstream stocking may gradually start. If raw materials remain at a high level and there is no significant increase in supply, the market is expected to rebound slightly.

This week, the domestic fluorite price trend has slightly declined. As of the 17th, the average price of fluorite in China was 3550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.70% from the early week price of 3575 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 4.86%.

Supply side: Multiple factors affecting loose spot availability of fluorite
1. The mines are continuously resuming production, and the operating rate in the main production areas is increasing
Recently, the resumption of work in domestic fluorite mines and beneficiation plants has accelerated, and the core production areas in the north have gradually increased their operating load due to the warming weather; The safety and environmental protection inspections in major production areas such as Zhejiang and Inner Mongolia have slowed down, the operating rate has increased, and the supply of spot goods has increased. Newly discovered fluorite mines in Sichuan and Gansu have strengthened expectations of loose supply in the medium to long term, leading to a slight decline in the fluorite market.
2. Normalization of industry regulation makes it difficult to add new mines
As a national strategic scarce mineral, fluorite has been continuously upgraded in safety and environmental control in recent years, with increased efforts to control the total amount of mining and accelerated elimination of backward small and medium-sized mines, leading to a continuous increase in industry concentration. The approval process for new mines is strict, and mineral exploration is difficult. The effective production capacity growth of domestic fluorite is weak, and high-grade raw ore is becoming increasingly scarce. At the same time, the normalization of mining rectification and production restrictions measures has further compressed the market circulation of goods and suppressed the decline of fluorite raw materials.
3. Increase in import volume to alleviate the domestic supply-demand gap
The domestic dependence on foreign fluorite exceeds 30%. In January and February 2026, imports will continue to increase, with concentrated arrival at ports and prices generally 300-500 yuan/ton lower than domestic ones. In addition, low arsenic fluorite (≤ 0.0005%) in China has zero tariffs, further reducing import costs. Mongolia’s fluorite imports remain at a high level, driving down the domestic fluorite market prices.
Demand side: Traditional demand is weak, while rigid demand is the main source of procurement
The operating rate of hydrofluoric acid enterprises is only over 50%, and most of them are operating at a loss. The procurement of essential needs is the main focus, which significantly reduces the price of upstream fluorite. Downstream refrigerants (R22/R32, etc.) are affected by quota and flat demand for household appliances, and the operating rate is difficult to exceed 50%. The purchase of hydrofluoric acid is weak, and the fluorite market has declined. However, the demand for fluorine chemical products in the fields of new energy and new materials continues to grow, and the growth rate of demand for products such as lithium hexafluorophosphate and fluorine-containing polymers is impressive, indirectly driving the demand for fluorite. The resilience of medium and long-term demand is highlighted, providing support for fluorite prices and limiting the decline of fluorite market.
Market forecast: Due to the warming weather in northern production areas and the accelerated resumption of mining production, some manufacturers in the domestic fluorite market have high inventory; The operating rate of downstream fluorine chemical industry has not changed much, and downstream procurement is mainly based on demand. It is expected that the price of fluorite may slightly decrease, but the cost inversion is obvious, and the decline of fluorite is limited.