This week, the price of potassium nitrate has slightly fallen. As of August 7th, the benchmark price of potassium nitrate is 5162.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.24% compared to 5175.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month. The spot market is weakly consolidating at a high level, and there are price differences in actual negotiations between different regions, industrial and agricultural grades. The market supply is sufficient, demand is in the off-season, and the turning point of the market is waiting for the start of autumn fertilizer stocking.
supply side
Domestic integrated potassium nitrate enterprise facilities maintain normal operation, the industry as a whole operates stably, the supply of goods is abundant, port inventory remains loose, and there is currently no news of centralized maintenance or production reduction; The overall market for upstream raw materials such as potassium chloride and nitric acid is stable, and the support for raw material costs is average. Changes in the market for by-product hydrochloric acid have caused a slight disturbance to the comprehensive production costs of enterprises.
Demand side
It is currently in a seasonal off-season. In the field of agriculture, the stage of topdressing for economic crops has come to an end, and water-soluble fertilizer enterprises are not operating at a high rate. Procurement is mainly based on immediate demand, and the market is waiting for the subsequent autumn fertilizer stocking window; On the industrial side, the glass, civil explosives, and electronic materials industries have stable orders with limited incremental growth, making it difficult to drive centralized replenishment. In terms of exports, overseas buyers have a cautious attitude, with India and Brazil mainly focusing on essential orders for procurement. Exporters often strive for orders through flexible pricing, and the external market pull effect is relatively weak.
Overall, the current potassium nitrate market has loose supply and downstream demand is under pressure during the off-season. The short-term market may continue to fluctuate narrowly and weakly. The turning point of the market mainly depends on the pace of domestic autumn fertilizer stocking, upstream raw material fluctuations, and changes in overseas order increments.

1、 Price trend
According to data, as of July 31st, the average market price of light soda ash was 1060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton compared to the price of 1120 yuan/ton on July 24th, a decrease of 5.36%. The soda ash market fell during the week.
2、 Market analysis
This week, the soda ash market is weak and declining. The operating rate of the supply side has increased compared to last week, and market inventory pressure has increased. Some companies have continuously lowered their quotations to promote shipment; In terms of demand, downstream glass production capacity is overcapacity, and there is a strong demand for soda ash procurement, resulting in overall weak performance. The soda ash market is highly pessimistic, and companies have a bearish attitude, leading to a wide downward shift in soda ash prices.
According to data, the glass market has declined this week, with an average market price of 12.38 yuan/square meter as of July 31, a decrease of 1.98% compared to the price of 12.63 yuan/ton on July 24. Some production lines in the glass market have undergone cold repairs, resulting in a decrease in operating rates. However, downstream demand during the off-season is poor, and the total inventory of glass society is still high. The pressure on enterprises to ship still exists, and glass prices are weakly lowered.
Future forecast: Currently, there is sufficient supply of soda ash in China, but downstream demand is weak. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand in fundamentals is difficult to improve, and there is a bearish atmosphere surrounding the market. It is expected that the soda ash market will operate weakly in the short term, and specific attention should be paid to the market shipment situation.

At the beginning of this month, the average price of nitric acid was 1360 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of nitric acid was 1326 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.45% in price.

In July, the overall concentrated nitric acid market was in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The mainstream negotiated average price of 98% concentrated nitric acid nationwide was between 1300-1450 yuan/ton, with Anhui about 1100-1200 yuan/ton, Sichuan about 1900 yuan/ton, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang about 1400 yuan/ton. The regional price difference was significant, mainly affected by regional supply and demand and transportation costs. The mainstream negotiation price for 68% dilute nitric acid nationwide is between 500-800 yuan/ton.
During the period of 7.01-7.31, the upstream liquid ammonia price decreased by 0.88%, the downstream potassium nitrate price decreased by 0.45%, and the ammonium nitrate price decreased by 4.16%. The largest downstream source of nitric acid is fertilizer, which is affected by the off-season in agriculture and the decline in the prosperity of some traditional chemical industries (such as aniline). Some downstream demand is not well followed up, and overall demand replenishment is mainly based on essential needs, which has limited impact on price driving.

In July, the domestic acetone market experienced a strong reversal and upward trend, completely reversing the deep decline in June. The market rhythm in July was clear, with a steady increase in the first half of the year, accelerated growth in the middle, and stabilization at a high level in the second half. The price center continued to shift upwards, and market trading activity rebounded significantly. The growth performance in the chemical sector was impressive, showing an overall trend of strengthening. At the beginning of the month, mainstream manufacturers raised prices, driving market bullish sentiment, and the market situation significantly repaired the previous decline within the month,
1. Supply side contraction lays the foundation for price increases: In July, domestic phenol ketone plants entered a centralized maintenance cycle, and the industry’s operating rate dropped below 70%, hitting a nearly one-year low, with a monthly production loss of 85900 tons. At the same time, port supply and social inventory remain low, and the market’s spot circulation is tight. Holders are reluctant to sell at high prices, and the shortage of spot supply directly drives prices steadily upward.
2. The demand side has rebounded, effectively absorbing the increase: acetone prices fell to the bottom in June, providing a low-priced stocking window for downstream industries. In July, downstream essential needs such as coatings, solvents, and chemical intermediates were released in a concentrated manner, and enterprises concentrated on buying bottom and replenishing inventory. The market transaction heat continued to rise, and the purchasing power of essential needs fully digested spot inventory, forming a positive cycle of “transaction recovery and price rise”, supporting the market to continue to rise.
3. Supported by costs and emotions, the market elasticity is amplified: the upstream raw material pure benzene increased by 8.12% in July, significantly raising the cost of phenol ketone production enterprises and laying a solid bottom support for acetone prices. At the same time, the overall atmosphere of bulk commodities is relatively strong, and the industrial chain is recovering across the board. Coupled with the concentration of top enterprises raising prices and adjusting prices, the pessimistic market sentiment in the early stage has been completely reversed. The bullish and hoarding sentiment on the trade side has further amplified the monthly increase.
From the perspective of short-term technical indicators, the difference between the 10 day moving average and the 20 day moving average of acetone spot prices in July continues to widen, fully confirming the effectiveness and sustainability of this upward trend. After hitting bottom and rebounding in early July, the 10 day moving average quickly turned upwards. In mid to late July, the 10 day moving average remained stable above the 20 day moving average with a steady upward trend. The moving average difference maintained a positive expansion trend, and the overall 10/20 day moving average difference continued to expand positively, becoming the core technical support for the upward trend of the acetone market in July.
The current short-term strong pattern of the acetone market has not changed, with a stable 10/20 day moving average structure and technical support for high price operation. However, there is a marginal risk of weakening in the subsequent market situation. With the resumption of production of maintenance equipment in the early stage, market supply will gradually recover, and the tight supply-demand situation will be alleviated to some extent; At the same time, after the high price, downstream purchasing intentions may cool down, and the support from the demand side will weaken. The acetone market in the future will end its unilateral upward trend and is likely to enter a high-level oscillation and supply-demand game stage. The technical double moving average difference may gradually narrow, and the market volatility will intensify. The overall trend is mainly stable, and the upward trend will slow down.

In July, the domestic epoxy propane market showed a trend of first suppressing, then rising, and then rebounding, but there were signs of high-level loosening at the end of the month. At the beginning of the month, the price of epichlorohydrin hovered around the low point of the year (reference price of 7800 yuan/ton on July 1st); Subsequently, influenced by multiple favorable factors, the market rose strongly from July 9th onwards; As of July 27th, the spot price of epichlorohydrin has risen to 10000 yuan/ton. But by the end of the month, there were signs of high-level loosening in the market. According to the monitoring system, as of July 28th, the benchmark price of epichlorohydrin was 9400.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.51% compared to the beginning of this month.
Raw material side: In the first half of the month, the price of raw material propylene rose at a high level. Against the backdrop of high prices of raw material propylene and energy, all process routes of epoxy propane have entered a loss zone. The cost inversion forces production enterprises to lose their profit margins, and raising prices to support the market has become an industry consensus. In the second half of the month, as the price of propylene fell, the cost support for epoxy propane weakened. However, at that time, the epoxy propane industry was undergoing large-scale factory maintenance, shutdown, or load reduction, and the tight supply pattern made the epoxy propane price show a certain resistance to decline. After a brief decline, it immediately rose and surged. According to the monitoring system, as of July 28th, the benchmark price of propylene was 7767.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.81% compared to the beginning of this month (7411.00 yuan/ton).
Supply side: In July, multiple sets of epoxy propane units in China were shut down or operated at reduced load. The daily production of the industry has been compressed to around 16000 tons, and the capacity utilization rate has dropped to 57.48%. The circulation of spot goods is tight, factories are controlling their export volume, and social inventory continues to decline to a low level.
On the demand side: In early July, there was a period of concentrated replenishment of epoxy propane downstream, but overall it still showed a slightly weak trend. From the perspective of the main downstream polyether polyols, July and August are the traditional off-season for demand, and downstream industries such as building insulation, soft furniture, and automotive interior have relatively average demand. The construction insulation industry is affected by the construction period and maintains a low season; Soft furniture is affected by the slowdown of the real estate completion cycle and high temperature weather, which hinders the foaming operation of sponge factories and weakens overall production; Some car companies in the automotive interior industry are experiencing high temperatures and holidays, resulting in reduced demand. In terms of other downstream aspects, the propylene glycol market has followed suit with multi-dimensional holding of essential needs, resulting in mediocre trading performance; The capacity utilization rate of unsaturated resin factories remains at a relatively low level of around 34%, showing an overall stable to weak trend. The overall downstream operating rate of epichlorohydrin is relatively low, while the operating rates of polyether and unsaturated resin are both at a low level.
Comprehensive forecast: Analysts believe that in the short term, geopolitics remains the biggest uncertain factor, and prices are prone to rise but difficult to fall under the pattern of cost support and tight supply. In the medium to long term, it is expected that 900000 tons/year of new facilities will be added or gradually put into operation in the second half of the year, and the market will return to the dominance of supply and demand fundamentals. The fluctuation range of prices is expected to narrow, and the overall situation may show a narrow range oscillation. More attention should be paid to the trend of propylene prices on the raw material side, the dynamics of plant start-up and shutdown, and the follow-up of downstream new orders.

As of the 26th, the price of ethyl acetate was 5860 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.67 yuan/ton or 0.29% compared to the price of 5843.33 yuan/ton on July 20th. The maintenance of the ethyl acetate unit and the follow-up of downstream market demand have led to an upward trend in the price of ethyl acetate due to the supply-demand game.
On the supply side, some units of ethyl acetate have been shut down for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in operating rates and an increase in the willingness of enterprises to raise prices; In terms of demand, the terminal market is in a traditional off-season, with downstream procurement mainly based on demand, and demand side support is average; At the same time, upstream acetic acid prices have loosened, cost support has weakened, and downstream and cost markets have suppressed the rise of ethyl ester prices. Under the psychological game, the center of gravity of ethyl acetate prices has narrowly shifted upward.
Looking at the future market, the operating rate of the ethyl acetate market is not high, with enterprises mainly pushing prices and downstream parties following up as needed. The market is limited, and there is an expected increase in supply in the later stage. The market mentality is cautious, and it is expected that ethyl acetate will be observed and consolidated in the short term, with narrow fluctuations in prices. Specific attention should be paid to the raw material market and downstream follow-up situation in the future.

In the second half of July, the domestic PS market showed a positive trend, with most grades experiencing significant increases in spot prices. As of July 24th, the benchmark price of PS is 10000 yuan/ton, with a price level increase of 11.73% compared to the beginning of the month.
Fundamental analysis
Cost factors: Recently, there have been fluctuations in the ceasefire talks between the United States and Iran in the Middle East, increasing shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz, and market concerns about international crude oil supply, leading to a rapid return of geopolitical premiums in oil prices. The rise in cost provides upward momentum for petroleum and pure benzene, which in turn boosts the price of styrene. However, the supply and demand expectations are still relatively loose, and the upward space for prices may be limited. It is expected that the styrene market will fluctuate weakly in the short term.
Supply and demand level: Recently, the domestic PS industry has experienced significant stability and small fluctuations. The domestic operating rate has been consistently low for a long time, and some facilities are still undergoing scheduled maintenance, resulting in an overall domestic load of around 50%. The inventory location is controllable, but the supply in some areas is tight. At the same time, with the addition of some inventory replenishment orders, the manufacturer has a strong willingness to raise prices, and the merchant is trying to overcharge. But currently, it is the traditional off-season market, and downstream product factories such as electrical appliances and packaging are digesting slowly. In addition, the high temperature weather continues, and terminal enterprises still have expectations of reduced production, resulting in low operating rates and weak demand for goods in the market. Currently, PS is still in a phase of weak supply and demand.
Future forecast
The domestic PS market rose strongly in the second half of July. The production load of the aggregation plant is maintained at a low level, and consumer demand is at a low season level. Analysts believe that remote raw material crude oil has surged, and upstream raw materials in the industry chain have generally surged due to its boost. The cost value has quickly rebounded, and PS spot prices are operating relatively strongly under the guidance of favorable costs. However, downstream demand for goods remains resistant to high priced sources, and it is expected that the PS market may enter a stalemate in the short term.

On July 21st, the number of expected arrivals at ports increased, and there were expectations of accumulated inventory at the main port, leading to a weakening of the market price center. The mainstream spot price in East China closed at 9100 yuan/ton, -60 yuan/ton; South China’s spot market remains tight and the price center is strengthening, with the market closing at 8200 yuan/ton,+50 yuan/ton.
Fundamentals:
Supply: Domestic facilities, Shenghong and Hengli have implemented maintenance plans for one set of facilities, while CNOOC Shell and Gulei Petrochemical have restarted; Imported from abroad, there is a shortage of short-term arrivals, and the Strait of Hormuz has been reopened. As of July 20th, the inventory of diethylene glycol ports in East China was 3600 tons, a decrease of 700 tons from the previous statistical cycle. This week (July 21-27), Zhangjiagang’s diethylene glycol is scheduled to arrive at the port with 9600 tons. The downstream demand side has shown lukewarm performance, and combined with the recent shipment situation at the main port, there is a certain expectation of inventory accumulation at the main port in East China.
Demand: The overall load of downstream polyester and unsaturated resin is stable, and there is a significant discount from the southern region to the eastern region. The supply will be supplemented by the southern region. According to statistics, as of July 16th, the average operating rate of unsaturated resin factories in China was 34%, an increase of 2% compared to the previous period. In terms of dock shipments, from July 13th to July 19th, the total amount of shipments from the main ports in East China, Changjiang International and Fubao Warehouse, was 1684 tons, with an average daily shipment of 241 tons. On July 20th, a total of 284 tons were shipped from the two storage areas in Zhangjiagang, an increase of 92 tons compared to the previous day.
On the cost side: The market is concerned that the US Iran conflict may escalate further, supply risk concerns are increasing, and international oil prices are rising. The price of gasoline in the United States has once again surpassed the $4 mark after a month. If the Strait of Hormuz continues to be volatile, Brent crude oil prices may exceed $120 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Market expectations: In the short term, for the supply side of diethylene glycol, domestic units Shenghong and Hengli have implemented maintenance plans, CNOOC Shell and Gulei Petrochemical have restarted, and foreign imports will arrive at the port around the weekend to alleviate short-term shortages. Attention will be paid to the impact of the re closure of the Strait of Hormuz on imported cargo in the later stage; In terms of downstream demand, the overall load of polyester and unsaturated resin is stable, and attention should be paid to the replenishment situation in the downstream. In the short term, due to the high price and low inventory of diethylene glycol in the upstream and downstream, the price is easily affected by centralized procurement of essential needs, and the price may fluctuate widely at high levels. The later supply will have a significant impact on price expectations, and the focus will be on downstream demand, near foreign goods, and sustained supply of imports from the Middle East.

This week (7.13-17), the domestic trend of liquid ammonia was weak, with prices mainly falling. The weekly decline of liquid ammonia in Shandong region was 2.55%. The market operation logic is that high downstream urea inventory dragged down demand, coal prices slightly bottomed out, and regional supply differentiation brought about local price differences. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is between 2100-2300 yuan/ton.
Supply side: Overall loose, regional differentiation, local production reduction provides bottom support
Firstly, the overall operating rate of liquid ammonia in the country is relatively high, with less maintenance of coal production facilities and concentrated resumption of production of pre shutdown facilities. The overall supply of commercial ammonia is sufficient; However, the proportion of self use ammonia in integrated urea enterprises has increased, resulting in a decrease in the export of liquid ammonia and a contraction in market circulation.
Secondly, there is significant regional differentiation: some ammonia companies in Hebei and Shandong have reduced production to maintain prices due to fluctuating cost lines, and their export sources have tightened over the weekend. Manufacturers have proactively raised their prices, but the intensity is not significant, within a hundred yuan; The independent ammonia plants in Shanxi and Henan have sufficient export sources, and their quotations continue to weaken at low levels, leading to a widening regional price difference.

Thirdly, the cost advantage of gas head is limited: domestic natural gas prices are stable, and the cost of gas head ammonia is 1500-1600 yuan/ton, but the proportion of gas head production capacity is low, making it difficult to reverse the overall loose pattern.
Demand side: Continuous high inventory of downstream urea, sluggish terminal procurement
From the demand side, the urea industry continues to operate at high loads, with a production rate of nearly 90%, and the market has entered a period of accumulation. Weak agricultural demand: sporadic procurement of fertilizers downstream, and the impact of rainy weather in the south on fertilizer supplementation and use; The operating rate of downstream industrial compound fertilizers is less than 30%, and the purchase of liquid ammonia raw materials is done in small quantities according to demand, without centralized replenishment. Industrial chain transmission effect: Urea spot prices have continued to decline this week. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 17th, Shandong urea has fallen to the range of 1770 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.73%. The profit of urea factories is compressed, and they actively reduce the purchase of ammonia products from external sources, prioritizing the consumption of self-produced liquid ammonia. The demand for the circulation of ammonia products is significantly reduced, suppressing the upward space for ammonia prices..
Market forecast:
Analysts believe that liquid ammonia may remain stagnant in the short term, and the market is prone to decline but difficult to rise. On the one hand, there has been little change in equipment recently, and the supply pattern remains relatively abundant. On the other hand, there is not much positive news on the demand side, with weak agricultural demand and limited replenishment. On the other hand, high urea inventory has forced ammonia companies to switch to high levels of ammonia. The market purchases according to demand, with industrial essential needs being the main focus. The supply and demand of materials continue to be weak, which restricts the ammonia market from moving towards a positive trend.

On July 14th, due to the impact of a typhoon on domestic loading and unloading in both coastal and Zhejiang provinces, the East China market experienced a shortage of spot goods. The inventory at the main ports in East China once again hit a new historical low, and the liquidity of spot goods in the region tightened. The pricing of diethylene glycol was dominated by the sellers, and the market price center continued to strengthen. The mainstream spot price in East China closed at 9330 yuan/ton,+130 yuan/ton, breaking the price high of the past decade; The South China market is limited by the supply and demand structure within the region, coupled with the background of local equipment restart, and the price discount has reached a new high of nearly 1500 yuan/ton. Cross regional arbitrage has been strongly opened up, and the market closed at 7900 yuan/ton and -100 yuan/ton; CFR China closed at $1103/ton and $-23/ton.
Fundamental analysis:
Supply: Domestic facilities, Shenghong and Hengli have implemented maintenance plans for one set of facilities, while CNOOC Shell and Gulei Petrochemical have restarted; Imported from abroad, there is a shortage of short-term arrivals, and some ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz; Due to the impact of the typhoon, the supply of goods from Jinyang and Zhejiang Petrochemical has been delayed. As of July 13th, the inventory of diethylene glycol ports in East China was 4300 tons, a decrease of 2300 tons from the previous statistical cycle. This week (July 14-20), Zhangjiagang’s diethylene glycol is scheduled to arrive at the port with 7050 tons. The downstream demand side has shown lukewarm performance, and combined with the recent shipment situation at the main port, there is a certain expectation of inventory accumulation at the main port in East China.
Demand: The overall load of downstream polyester and unsaturated resin is stable, and there is a significant discount from the southern region to the eastern region. The supply will be supplemented by the southern region. According to statistics, as of July 9th, the average operating rate of unsaturated resin factories in China was 32%, a decrease of 1% from the previous period. Manufacturers purchase raw materials on demand. According to statistics, from July 10th to July 12th, a total of 903 tons were shipped from the two storage areas in Zhangjiagang, with an average daily shipment of about 301 tons. On July 13th, a total of 232 tons were shipped from the two storage areas in Zhangjiagang, a decrease of 71 tons from the previous day.
Market expectation: Looking ahead, in terms of imports, due to the impact of Typhoon Bawei, the loading and unloading of nearshore cargo has been delayed. July and August are a period of high typhoon weather, which may drag down the pace of import recovery. Pay attention to changes in shipping schedules. In terms of domestic production, Shenghong Petrochemical and Hengli Refining will gradually carry out maintenance within July, while CNOOC Shell and Gulei Petrochemical will restart one after another; The demand is basically stable; Under the background of tight pressure in the main port during the week, the expected price of diethylene glycol remains strong. However, with the gradual replenishment of cargo, the expectation of a high price drop has not changed. However, considering the situation between the United States and Iran, there may be difficulties in connecting supply in the future, and it is difficult to anchor a low price. In the current price background, we are currently considering a cautious bearish trend and focusing on the sustainability of subsequent supply repair.