According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market fluctuated and fell this week. From June 30th to July 7th, the domestic butadiene market price decreased from 9066.67 yuan/ton to 8600 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 5.15% during the cycle. The butadiene market has fluctuated downward this cycle, dragged down by insufficient demand, and the ex factory prices of main refineries have been lowered one after another in the later part of the week. The spot market supply on the supply side has been relatively sufficient recently, and the main production areas are actively exporting. There have been some unsold transactions in the market, and market transactions are slightly weak. As of July 7th, the delivery price in the Shandong market is around 8800-8850 yuan/ton.

Cost wise: The international crude oil market has fluctuated and risen this cycle. As of July 4th, the US WTI crude oil futures were closed for the Independence Day holiday, and the September Brent crude oil futures contract settlement price was $68.30 per barrel.
Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 8900 yuan/ton, which will be lowered by 500 yuan/ton this week.
On the demand side: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the recent butadiene rubber market has been weak and declining, while the futures market for butadiene rubber has been weak and volatile. The supply price of butadiene rubber is temporarily stable, and there has been a slight adjustment in merchant offers. As of July 4th, the mainstream reports for Daqing, Yangtze, and Qilu Shunding are 11650-12000 yuan/ton; Some private brands are priced around 11450-11700 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: The recent crude oil trend has been volatile, with insufficient guidance for the butadiene market and minimal impact. This week’s trend will mainly return to the impact of supply and demand. From the supply side perspective, refineries in major domestic production areas are actively shipping, and the market supply is relatively sufficient. On the demand side, the overall downstream demand tends to be rigid. Under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, it is expected that the overall trend of the butadiene market will be weak and volatile.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on July 4th was 1223 yuan/ton, which is 2.13% lower than the average price of 1250 yuan/ton on June 30th.
2、 Market analysis
Supply and demand situation
This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market prices continued to decline. This week, there was a slight adjustment in the operating rate of ammonium sulfate enterprises, a decrease in the operating rate of coking enterprises, and an increase in the operating rate of domestic enterprises. At present, there is still support for the export of ammonium sulfate, but the release of demand is limited. Recently, the price of urea has been adjusted and running, and the ammonium sulfate market is mainly observing. Downstream urgent procurement has led to resistance to high prices, resulting in a decline in the transaction price of ammonium sulfate in the market.
market conditions
As of July 4th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 1120 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 1165-1200 yuan/ton.
3、 Future forecast
An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the recent trend of the ammonium sulfate market is mainly downward. At present, the transactions in the ammonium sulfate market are limited, and many are adopting a cautious and wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market price will be weak and stable in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on July 3rd, the reference price of cyclohexanone in the domestic Shandong region was 7187 yuan/ton. Compared with June 29th (reference price of cyclohexanone was 7425 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 238 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.20%.
From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong Province, China, experienced a cold and declining trend. The focus of the cyclohexanone market has been adjusted downwards, and negotiations have shifted downwards, with a reduction of 150-300 yuan/ton. As of July 3rd, the reference price for cyclohexanone in Shandong region is around 7000-7250 yuan/ton.
Fundamental situation
In terms of cost: During the week, the pure benzene market on the cost side fluctuated and fell, providing weaker support for cyclohexanone.
In terms of supply and demand: Currently, the overall supply performance of cyclohexanone in the market is relatively loose, and the supply side provides poor support for the cyclohexanone market. In addition, downstream demand for cyclohexanone is slightly weak, and demand is cautiously continuing to be mainly driven by rigid procurement, resulting in weak overall transmission between supply and demand.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the cyclohexanone market is mainly weak in consolidation and operation, with a light trading atmosphere and a general mentality among industry players. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market in Shandong will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and more attention needs to be paid to the changes in supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 30th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 1823 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.65% from the reference average price of 1892 yuan/ton on June 1st.
2、 Market analysis
Supply and demand situation
The domestic urea market has been fluctuating after a continuous decline this month. In the first half of this month, the domestic urea market prices were weak and fell. The urea market is oversupplied, with downstream buyers purchasing at low prices and a bearish sentiment in the market. In the second half of this month, the domestic urea market prices fluctuated. The supply of urea in the market remains loose, with downstream demand for essential fertilizers being the main focus, and industrial demand maintaining essential replenishment. Market demand still needs to be released.
market conditions
As of June 30th, the urea market prices in Shandong are around 1770-1850 yuan/ton, Hebei is around 1770-1810 yuan/ton, Henan is around 1780-1800 yuan/ton, and Liaoning is around 1890 yuan/ton.
According to the weekly K-bar chart from March 31, 2024 to June 23, 2025, it can be seen that the domestic urea cycle is characterized by ups and downs. The maximum increase in domestic urea in June was 1.66% in the week of June 16th, and the maximum decrease was -2.22% in the week of June 2nd.
3、 Future forecast
Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the urea market has been fluctuating slightly in recent days. At present, the urea market is still oversupplied, with insufficient upward momentum and limited new orders from factories. It is expected that the domestic urea market price will weaken and consolidate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from June 23 to 27, the domestic ethanol price rose to 5512 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.63% during the period, a month on month increase of 5.40%, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.70%. The price of raw corn has risen, and production enterprises have shown a clear willingness to raise prices. They are reluctant to sell at low prices, and ethanol prices have continued to rise. Traders’ shipping prices have also increased synchronously.

In terms of cost, corn prices in the main production areas continue to show a strong trend. Recently, there has been more rainy weather in North China, and the arrival volume of deep processing goods in Shandong has remained low. There are less than 100 vehicles arriving in the morning, and the price of corn for enterprises has generally increased by 10-20 yuan/ton. The cost of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

Supply side, market supply side has declined, Hongzhan Jixian has stopped production, and Zhongke Green has resumed production, but the output is limited. Guangxi COFCO has a shutdown plan but the timing has not been determined. The supply of ethanol is affected by favorable factors.
On the demand side, from the demand side, the downstream Baijiu and chemical industry are entering the traditional off-season, the consumer side is expected to reduce slightly, and the downstream chemical industry delivery price will rise. The short-term demand for ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.
In the future forecast, favorable costs will continue to support the high operation of ethanol prices. Business Society’s ethanol analyst predicts that the domestic ethanol market will continue to operate at a high level in the short term.

Aluminum prices fluctuate horizontally

Aluminum prices remained relatively firm this week (6.23-6.30). According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 30, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20786.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.38% from the market average price of 20303.33 yuan/ton on June 1.
Overview of Macro Factors
1. International geopolitical changes, easing of the situation in the Middle East, diminishing risk aversion, and a shift in capital risk appetite have to some extent suppressed international commodity prices.
Recently, the latest statements from the Federal Reserve and Trump’s related remarks on the Fed have raised expectations of interest rate cuts, and with the help of financial markets, commodities have stopped falling and rebounded.
Fundamental Overview
On the supply side, the operational capacity of electrolytic aluminum has slightly increased, resulting in a slight increase in output. As of June 26th, the weekly production of mainstream domestic manufacturers remained around 844000 tons.
On the demand side, during the off-season of traditional consumption, the demand for building profiles, home appliances, and other products is relatively weak. Although new energy vehicles can drive some of the demand, the photovoltaic market has experienced a decline in production and overall demand growth is weak. At present, the arrival of goods in consumer areas is generally average, and the inventory of finished products as terminal raw materials is relatively high. The order volume is relatively low, and the processing cost has slightly decreased. Demand has weak support for aluminum prices.
On the cost side, the price of alumina has stopped falling and stabilized, while the cost side of electrolytic aluminum has provided some support for aluminum prices this week.
Low level sideways trend in social inventory: Currently, the social inventory of aluminum ingots is relatively low and is in a sideways trend this week. As of June 30th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in mainstream consumption areas in China was 462000 tons, a decrease of 46000 tons from June 5th.
Future expectations
At present, the market trading logic tends to be macro oriented, and may later shift to fundamentals. With the expectation of a subsequent consumption off-season, the upward space for aluminum prices will narrow.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic adipic acid market experienced ups and downs in June, with mixed ups and downs, and a slight overall decline as the main trend. On June 1st, the average price of adipic acid in the domestic market was 7433 yuan/ton. On June 25th, the average price of adipic acid in the domestic market was 7366 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.9% in price.

Negative sentiment still persists in June, with mixed ups and downs in the adipic acid market
Since June, the market for pure benzene and cyclohexanone raw materials for adipic acid has weakened, leading to a decrease in demand in the end plastic industry and a decrease in prices for adipic acid manufacturers. The market transactions are average and the market is sluggish. The price of adipic acid has mainly decreased. As of June 9th, the average market price of adipic acid has fallen to around 7066 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of 4.93%.
Starting from June 10th, the prices of pure benzene and cyclohexanone raw materials for adipic acid have risen, and the demand in the end plastic industry has improved, causing prices for adipic acid manufacturers to rise one after another. Market transactions have increased, and the market for adipic acid has improved. As of June 17th, the average market price of adipic acid has risen to around 7466 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 5.66%.
At the end of the month, the favorable factors in the raw material market were exhausted, and the demand in the terminal plastic industry weakened. The prices of adipic acid manufacturers gradually decreased, and the market transactions were average. The average market price of adipic acid fell to 7366 yuan/ton, an overall decrease of 100 yuan/ton.
An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in July, terminal demand weakened and the support of the raw material market was limited, resulting in a continued weakening of the domestic adipic acid market.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, since June, the hydrogen peroxide market has fluctuated narrowly and risen, and the market has rebounded. On June 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 696 yuan/ton, and on June 24th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 723 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.83%.
Supply tightens, hydrogen peroxide market rises in June
In early June, the terminal demand in the printing and papermaking industry improved, and some manufacturers of hydrogen peroxide stopped for maintenance, resulting in tight supply and price increases. The average price in the domestic market rose to around 700 yuan/ton, with a price increase of around 10-20 yuan/ton.
In mid month, the upward momentum of the hydrogen peroxide market was insufficient, and the market gradually stabilized. The market transactions were still acceptable, and the overall market was consolidating. The average price of hydrogen peroxide market continued to hover around 700 yuan.
At the end of the month, the hydrogen peroxide market saw an upward trend, with prices rising to 720 yuan/ton, nearly 4% higher than the beginning of the month. As of June 24th, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market is 723 yuan/ton.
The hydrogen peroxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in July, there were many shutdowns of hydrogen peroxide manufacturers, with tight supply and demand support, and the market is expected to continue to recover.

This week, the market price of epoxy propane first rose and then stabilized. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of June 20th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 7543.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.72% compared to the beginning of the month.

Price influencing factors:
Raw material side: The market price of raw material propylene has risen, with strong support from the cost side. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of June 20th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6613.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.15% compared to the beginning of this month (6538.25 yuan/ton).
Supply side: The tight supply of epoxy propane market this week has provided strong support for the rise in epoxy propane prices. As of the 18th, only the 200000 tons/year PO/SM unit of Shenghong Petrochemical has resumed normal operation at 70-80% load, while the remaining Wanhua Phase III, Satellite Petrochemical, and Sinopec Changling units are planned to resume gradually from the weekend to the end of the month. The expected increase in volume during the month is limited, and the initial inventory during start-up is expected to be low.
Demand side: The downstream market for epoxy propane is in urgent need of procurement, with limited new inquiries and cold terminal demand. Therefore, it is mainly a wait-and-see approach. Downstream demand for polyether is not fluctuating significantly, with rigid procurement being the main focus and some incremental procurement. The demand for propylene glycol is generally followed up, but some factories may resume production in the later stage, and there may be an increase in demand. Overall, there is still some support from the demand side for the epoxy propane market, and the market may experience narrow consolidation in the later stage.
Market forecast:
Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that the supply of epoxy propane is tight, with a slight increase in market prices. Downstream market demand is weak during the off-season, and there is passive follow-up. New inquiries are limited, so it is mainly a wait-and-see approach. It is expected that the epoxy propane market will mainly experience narrow consolidation in the later stage, and more attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices and downstream supply and demand.

The domestic fluorite price trend has declined this week, with an average price of 3250 yuan/ton as of the weekend, a decrease of 0.76% from the initial price of 3275 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 14.33%.
Supply side: The mine is operating normally, and the supply of fluorite is normal
The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has increased. Upstream mining is tense, and backward mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. However, with the rise of temperature, northern enterprises are gradually starting production, and the supply of fluorite enterprises on site has increased. The lack of active procurement has led to sufficient spot goods on site, and some fluorite manufacturers have a strong sentiment of destocking, resulting in a continuous decline in the fluori.

Demand side: Low price of hydrofluoric acid, acceptable refrigerant market
This week, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid remained low, with mainstream prices ranging from 10900 to 11400 yuan/ton negotiated in various regions of China. Some downstream hydrofluoric acid units are still shut down, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid remains at more than 50%. Fluorine enterprises maintain essential orders, and hydrofluoric acid enterprises are in a loss making state. They are not active in purchasing raw fluorite, and downstream merchants have a strong wait-and-see attitude. Both buyers and sellers have weak expectations for the future due to poor demand digestion. Recently, some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers have seen prices decline, and the fluorite price market continues to decline due to this news.
The downstream refrigerant market in the terminal industry is still promising, and the terminal policy of the refrigerant industry is being strengthened. Demand is expected to achieve substantial improvement. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in raising prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the pace of high price procurement is relatively slow, but the industry inventory is transmitting in a positive and orderly manner. Due to high prices, the enthusiasm for stocking up in the terminal industry is low, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The trend of refrigerant market is average, while the fluorite market is sluggish.
In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF、 Graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc., have received certain support in the application of fluorite due to the demand for new energy and semiconductors.
Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production and undergone safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a positive support for the fluorite market. However, in some areas, the lack of active fluorite procurement has led to an increase in inventory. In addition, downstream resistance to high prices is severe, and hydrofluoric acid enterprises mainly purchase on demand, with no actual increase in demand. In addition, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is low. Overall, the fluorite market price is prone to decline but difficult to rise in the short term.