The business monitoring company’s offer has been lowered. At present, enterprises in Shandong and East China are down by 500 yuan/ton, which is basically balanced with the market. Up to now, the market price in Shandong has been 5,400 yuan/ton, the price around Yanshan is 5,350 yuan/ton, the price in East China is 5,200 yuan/ton, and the price in South China is 5,700 yuan/ton. Overall, the market has a downward trend.

Tianjin Zhongsha Petrochemical’s 350,000 tons/year phenolic ketone plant stopped on September 3 and resumed its resumption today. It is expected to be discharged tomorrow. During the holiday period, the market was weak, and the port inventory in East China was relatively high. After the holiday, the manufacturers concentrated their adjustments and concentrated shipments at the end of the month. The market may still have a slight downward trend.

According to the data monitoring of business organizations, on September 17, the average price of acetic anhydride enterprises was 7312.50 yuan / ton, up 0.26% from the previous trading day, up 46.49%.

On September 16th, the acetic anhydride commodity index was 144.55, which was the same as yesterday. It was 12.78% lower than the highest point of 165.73 points (2018-06-19) in the cycle, which was 75.04% higher than the lowest point of 82.58 points on September 20, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

On September 17, the domestic vinegar anhydride factory price rose, and the market transaction price rose. In most areas, the factory price is 6800-7400 yuan / ton, the actual transaction price is 50 yuan / ton -100 yuan / ton, the actual transaction price is about 6800-7000 yuan / ton, the market price is the reference price, the actual transaction price is actually Negotiation shall prevail.

Recently, the price of raw material acetic acid has risen, the price of raw material methanol has risen, and the overall cost of acetic anhydride manufacturers has risen, which has formed a positive effect on the price of acetic anhydride. The operating rate of downstream customers has rebounded, but the overall start-up is still low. The demand for acetic anhydride is good, but the upward momentum is limited. The downstream procurement enthusiasm is generally limited, and the support for the price increase of acetic anhydride is limited. However, the operating rate of acetic anhydride equipment is at a high level recently, the supply of acetic anhydride is increasing, and the demand for acetic anhydride is slow to recover. It is difficult to support the price of acetic anhydride to continue to rise, and the price of raw materials is rising. The cost of acetic anhydride has risen, and the price of acetic anhydride has a strong upward momentum. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fluctuate and adjust, and the overall domestic price of acetic anhydride will rise slightly.

According to the data monitoring of business organizations, on September 13, the average price of acetic anhydride enterprises was 729.375 yuan/ton, up 0.86% from the previous trading day and up 48.35% year-on-year.

The commodity index of acetic anhydride on September 12 was 143.31, which was the same as yesterday, which was 13.53% lower than the highest point of 165.73 points (2018-06-19) in the cycle, which was 73.54% higher than the lowest point of 82.58 points on September 20, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

On September 13, the domestic vinegar anhydride factory price rose, and the market transaction price rose slightly. In most areas, the factory price is 6800-7200 yuan / ton, the actual transaction price is about 100 yuan / ton, the actual transaction price is about 6600-6900 yuan / ton, the market price is the reference price, the actual transaction price is subject to actual negotiation.

Recently, the price of raw material acetic acid has risen, the price of raw material methanol has risen, and the overall cost of acetic anhydride manufacturers has risen, which has formed a positive effect on the price of acetic anhydride. The operating rate of downstream customers has rebounded, but the overall start-up is still low. The demand for acetic anhydride is good, but the upward momentum is limited. The downstream procurement enthusiasm is generally limited, and the support for the price increase of acetic anhydride is limited. However, the operating rate of acetic anhydride equipment is at a high level recently, the supply of acetic anhydride is increasing, and the demand for acetic anhydride is slow to recover. It is difficult to support the price of acetic anhydride to continue to rise, and the price of raw materials is rising. The cost of acetic anhydride has risen, and the price of acetic anhydride has a strong upward momentum. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fluctuate and adjust, and the overall domestic price of acetic anhydride will rise slightly.

1. Price trend
According to the price monitoring of the business community, this week’s TDI offer closed at 28,340 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2,360 yuan / ton, a decrease of 7.69% compared with the beginning of the week, the price fell sharply.

2. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: The domestic TDI market fell sharply this month. Shanghai Xingrong Chemical Co., Ltd. reported dow28500 yuan / ton; Nanjing Carbon Green Chemicals Co., Ltd. reported that Zhangzhou Dahua 28,000 yuan / ton; Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone Pan Asia International Trade Co., Ltd. reported BASF 28,200 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: The market continued to fall sharply this week. The traditional peak season of TDI is coming, and the industry has different views. Some holders said that this year is not necessarily the same, the downstream environmental inspection is strict, each year is different. According to the previous trend, many people will stock up before the peak season, which directly leads to the peak season, and the supply and demand shutdown is such a dynamic change. It can only be said that the first two years are the peak period of TDI. At the same time, many goods dealers also said that there is no stockpile plan, TDI does not dare to pick up the goods, the current profit margin of the manufacturers is still very large, so the space for falling will be great. At the same time, Yantai Juli and Wanhua Chemical will each have their own production capacity of 150,000 tons/year and 300,000 tons/year. The production capacity will increase and the supply gap will be improved. The early expectations were too high, but the price did not rise as expected, causing prices to fall, and demand was bleak.

Industry: Two consecutive TDI prices such a roller coaster-like market shows that there is indeed a problem in the TDI market. At present, TDI is a high-margin product in the polyurethane industry, and it has been a high price in the recent collapse to 24,500. Long-term high product prices are not conducive to sustainable development. Domestic and foreign manufacturers are researching ways to reduce or replace the use of TDI. If the price does not return to a healthy level at an early date, the follow-up situation is worrying.

III. Conclusions and prospects

According to the analysis of the data analysts of the business community: TDI will continue to decline in a short period of time. If the market is stimulated, it will delay the decline. Mainly depends on economic and environmental factors.

After the listing of RMB crude oil in March this year, the volume of trading continued to rise. In September, oil and gas giants including PetroChina and Sinopec participated in the first delivery of the contract.

Reuters energy analyst Henning Gloystein wrote on August 31 that the presence of renminbi crude oil is rising and threatening the market position of New York oil and Brent oil.

According to the article, the presence of RMB crude oil futures (ISCC1), which the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) began trading in March, continued to rise in the international market. Although this variety has become an indicator for Asian countries, China, as the world’s largest crude oil importer, will continue to promote the trading of RMB crude oil in the future, British North Sea Brent Oil (OIL) and New York West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI). The market position will therefore be shaken.

At the beginning of the trading of RMB crude oil in the previous period, the trading volume exceeded the other futures varieties such as Oman crude oil (the third in the world) that began trading in 2007, occupying the market share of the original Brent oil and New York oil. In July, the total transaction volume increased to 2.8 million hands (1 lot 1,000 barrels), reaching 14.4% of global trading volume.

The article said that the “crust change” of this crude oil futures market will also affect other markets such as foreign exchange.

Richard Innis, head of the Internet currency trading company Oanda Asia Pacific, predicted that “taking into account the prominent situation in China’s oil market, the share of Shanghai oil is expected to increase further.” In addition, the foreign exchange market is also “focusing on the renminbi.”

Zhang Huiyao of Huatai Futures said, “Shanghai crude oil has a higher price and better liquidity, and it has a rapid linkage with other foreign crude oil futures. For speculators, it has become a very good trading variety.”

Considering that China is the world’s largest importer of crude oil, more and more analysts believe that Shanghai Oil will be an important reference indicator. At the same time, the US sanctions against Iran are also one of the reasons for the rapid rise in the significance of its indicators.

As the US government decided in May to impose sanctions on Iran again, it threatened to reduce Iranian crude oil exports to zero as of November 3. All foreign companies and governments that continue to purchase will be sanctioned by the US. China is the biggest buyer of Iranian crude oil and is not expected to ignore the US request.

China has changed part of its crude oil futures trading from the price of the dollar to the yuan.

Innis said, “The continued trading of Iranian crude oil linked to the renminbi on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is expected to be one of China’s current trade frictions.”

He also said that Russia is also interested in clearing crude oil in RMB.

Therefore, Shanghai oil may eventually change the pattern of the world crude oil market.

Barry White of the US international asset holding company (INTL FCStone) said that China’s major oil companies have replaced some of their futures positions with Shanghai crude oil. Shanghai crude oil futures contract was first delivered in September, and giants such as PetroChina and Sinopec participated in it.

According to industry insiders, many companies and banks in the West are also trying to trade Shanghai crude oil futures and plan to expand the transaction volume. Although the Oman crude oil of the Dubai Exchange of the United Arab Emirates has achieved certain success, its influence in the financial market is limited.

The pricing power of the international crude oil market has been dominated by Brent oil and New York oil for decades, which has undoubtedly made China’s promotion of RMB crude oil trading more natural.

Innis said: “As China’s domestic market increases openness and transparency, and the internationalization of the RMB accelerates, Shanghai Oil has begun to take a big step toward this trend.”

First, the price trend:

According to data from business organizations, the price of ortho-benzene is stable in the near future. On August 27, the price of o-xylene was 7,837.50 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with the price of o-xylene (OX) of 7,837.50 yuan/ton on August 17, up 31.72% year-on-year.

Second, the market analysis:

Product:

This week, the inventory of phthalene in the East China Port remained at a low level. As of August 27, the inventory of Huadong Port was about 30,000 tons. The price of phthalate external disk rose. On August 27th, the European market for o-xylene market was quoted at US$1000.00/ton FOB Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp, which was up by US$30/ton over the previous week. The price of phthalate external disk rose, the cost of imported benzene increased, and the price of imported benzene increased. The price of imported ortho-benzene increased, and the domestic price of o-xylene increased under pressure. However, the demand for ortho-benzene did not increase substantially, and the growth potential of o-benzene was limited.

Industry chain:

The mixed xylene market fell first and then rose, and the cost of o-xylene decreased. On August 25, the price of mixed xylene was 6,595.45 yuan/ton, which was priced at 660.09 yuan/ton from the beginning of August (August 20). The price fell by 0.21%. The price of mixed xylene dropped, the cost of o-xylene decreased, and the momentum of rising benzene market weakened.

Third, the market outlook:

Baijiaxin, an analyst of the o-xylene data of the business community, believes that the price of phthalate external disk has risen, the price of phthalate in the port has remained high, and the stock of benzene in the port has been low, which has played a positive role in maintaining the domestic benzene high market. At the same time, the price of mixed xylene in domestic benzene raw materials decreased, the cost of ortho-benzene decreased, and the price increase of ortho-benzene was negative. The stock of benzene in the port is at a low level, and the sound of the market is soaring. The price of the adjacent benzene is hard to decline in the short term. The neighboring benzene is better. The benzene growth is stronger, but the demand for benzene is less. And because the price of ortho-benzene raw materials has decreased, the possibility of rising phthalene is reduced. It is expected that the price of phthalic acid in the market will not rise, and the market for benzene in the market will remain stable.

First, the price trend

According to the data of the business community, the average price of liquefied natural gas at the beginning of the week was 3981.25 yuan/ton. As of August 17, the average price of liquefied natural gas was 37.7.50 yuan/ton, and the overall price of LNG fell 5.12%, up 25.02% year-on-year.

Second, the analysis of influencing factors

Products: According to the data of business organizations, as of August 17, the LNG price of Hangjinqi Xinsheng Natural Gas Co., Ltd. in Erdos City, Inner Mongolia is 3900 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang Guanghui LNG Development Co., Ltd. is about 2850 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia. The LNG price of Ordos Star Energy Co., Ltd. is 3,770 yuan / ton, the LNG price of Renqiu Development Zone Huagang Gas Co., Ltd. is 4,000 yuan / ton, and the LNG price of Shaanxi Luyuan Natural Gas Co., Ltd. Zizhou LNG Factory is 3,800 yuan / ton.

Market Analysis: At present, environmental protection requirements are more stringent, and actively build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient modern energy system, fully promote the elimination of clean energy, environmental protection pressure, “coal to gas” stimulates the rapid growth of natural gas demand, not weak in the off-season, liquefaction Natural gas plants are selling well, and the liquid level is gradually decreasing. In addition, the recent restrictions on gas in the northwest region are relatively strong, and LNG prices are at a high level. Due to the high price of LNG, the demand is reduced, the market mentality is not good, the downstream receiving goods are relatively weak, and the contradiction between supply and demand causes prices to start to fall.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business companies, in the 33rd week of 2018 (8.13-8.17), there were 8 commodities in the energy sector that rose in the energy sector. The top 3 commodities were coke (4.37%) and fuel oil. (2.57%), liquefied gas (1.50%). There were 6 kinds of commodities with a decrease in the chain, and 1 product with a drop of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored products in the sector; the top 3 products were LNG (-5.12%) and dimethyl ether (- 4.03%), WTI crude oil (-3.21%). This week’s average price increase was -0.29%.

Third, the market outlook

LNG analysts in the business community believe that the high price of LNG makes the downstream receiving goods weak, and the market demand is insufficient. It is expected that the LNG price will stabilize in the short term.