According to the data monitoring of the business community, the acrylonitrile market rose and fell in November. As of November 28, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 10760 yuan/ton, 1.91% lower than 10970 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; The monthly peak is 11590 yuan/ton, with a monthly amplitude of 7.71%. In November, the listing price of acrylonitrile enterprises rose sharply in the early stage, and fell back in the late stage as the downstream construction started and the acrylonitrile enterprises resisted the high price of acrylonitrile; The market offer follows the trend of the market. As of November 28, the mainstream offer of acrylonitrile market in East China was 10200~11000 yuan/ton.

Although the Kruer acrylonitrile unit stopped for a short time in this month, the acrylonitrile industry has both new units put into production and multiple plants increased their load. In November, the supply of acrylonitrile continued to be loose.

In November, the raw propylene market rose significantly, and the cost of acrylonitrile rose. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 28, the domestic propylene price was 7436 yuan/ton, up 5.68% from 7036 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At the beginning of November, Shandong market was affected by domestic public health events, which led to blocked enterprise shipments, poor on-site transportation, and low end prices falling below 7000 yuan/ton. In the second week of November, the market hit the bottom and rebounded. On the one hand, logistics recovered gradually, and propylene enterprises moved smoothly. On the other hand, low prices stimulated the enthusiasm of downstream procurement to improve. Proper replenishment and restart of downstream devices led to a rapid rise in the price of propylene in Shandong to 7300 yuan/ton. From the middle of the month to the end of the month, due to the price rise and the lack of downstream purchasing stamina, the propylene market began to fluctuate and stabilize, and the market supply and demand did not change much. As of November 25, the mainstream price of propylene in Shandong was 7300 yuan/up and down.

The golden nine and silver ten peak seasons have passed, and COVID-19 has distributed in many places. In November, the downstream ABS, acrylamide/polyacrylamide and other industries of acrylonitrile started to decline; Acrylic fiber and nitrile rubber industry started to maintain stability, and the demand for acrylonitrile was weaker than in the early stage.

Future forecast: Acrylonitrile analysts from the business community believe that, on the one hand, there is still pressure for new production of acrylonitrile in the later stage, and on the other hand, the current demand is weak; It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to fall in the later period.

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, as of November 25, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 8783.33 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from Monday.

Epichlorohydrin market rose slightly this week. From the perspective of supply and demand: the industry’s capacity utilization rate has decreased compared with the previous period. Jiangsu’s large factories have raised the ex factory price, which has boosted the manufacturers’ price mentality. In addition, some enterprises have moderate purchasing enthusiasm, and the market quotation has a tentative small increase. However, the downstream market has insufficient mentality. Procurement is mainly based on small orders, and the market transaction atmosphere is flat.

From the upstream and downstream perspective: in the near future, the raw material propylene is mainly stable, the raw material glycerin is stable, and the cost is still supported by epichlorohydrin. The reference price of downstream epoxy resin was 16733.33 on November 25, a decrease of 9.22% compared with November 1 (18433.33), which was insufficient to support the epichlorohydrin market.

The epichlorohydrin analysts of the business community believe that the current cost impact is limited, and the supply side is expected to shrink, but the demand side is not following up enough. The demand side is mainly cautious, and the demand side temporarily dominates the market. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will stabilize in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

The price of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and stabilized this week

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 24, the DBP price was 9800 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with 9800 yuan/ton on November 18. Raw material support remains, and DBP prices are strong and stable this week.

The price of DBP raw materials fluctuated and stabilized

According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of November 24, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8887.50 yuan/ton, down 2.87% from 9150 yuan/ton on November 18. This week, the phthalic anhydride plant was restarted, with sufficient supply and weak demand. The phthalic anhydride price fell, and the downward pressure on DBP remained.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of November 24, the price of n-butanol was 7566.67 yuan/ton, up 2.25% from 7400 yuan/ton on November 18. The trading atmosphere of n-butanol in the market was stable, the industry remained strong, the price of n-butanol rose in shock, and the support of DBP cost rise remained.

Future market expectation

According to the DBP data analysts of the business community, the price of raw material phthalic anhydride fell in shock, while the price of n-butanol rose in shock. The overall cost of DBP raw materials stabilized, and the DBP cost support remained. It is expected that the DBP price will stabilize in shock in the future.

The domestic methanol market fluctuated slightly, mainly due to supply and demand. The supply is abundant, but the existing demand has not been significantly boosted, and the short-term domestic methanol market is mainly weak.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of East China ports in the domestic methanol market fell from 2799 yuan/ton to 2793 yuan/ton from November 14 to 21 (as of 10:00 a.m.). During the cycle, the price dropped by 0.31%, 3.48% month on month and 1.64% year on year.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises fell from 2833 yuan/ton to 2793 yuan/ton from November 14 to 20. During the cycle, the price fell by 1.41%, 3.12% month on month and 1.64% year on year.

As of the closing of November 18, the methanol futures of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange had fluctuated at a high level. The MA2301 contract was opened at 2535 yuan/ton, the highest price was 2616 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 2500 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2598 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan/ton from the closing of the previous trading day. As of the closing, the position of the MA2301 contract was 1.1163 million hands, down 3400 hands from the previous trading day.

Summary of methanol market prices by regions by 11.18:

Region,. Price

Shanxi,. 2480-2490 yuan/ton

Liaoning, about 2670 yuan/ton

In Anhui, about 2740-2800 yuan/ton

Henan Province,. 2550 yuan/ton

The price of products in the methanol industry chain is up and down, the price of products in the methanol industry chain is up and down, the price of natural gas in the upstream product of methanol is stable, the price of coal is down, and the support for methanol cost is weaker; The price of downstream product East China glacial acetic acid dropped the most; The price of urea in Shandong Province rose the most among related products.

In terms of external market, as of November 18, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was USD 364.50-365.50/ton. US Gulf Methanol Market closed at 93.75-94.75 cents/gallon; FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 317.75-318.75 euros/ton, down 0.5 euros/ton.

Region../Country./Closing Price./Up and Down

Asia./CFR Southeast Asia./364.50-365.50 USD/ton./- 2 USD/ton

Europe and America./American Gulf./93.75-94.75 cents/gallon./- 1 minute/gallon

Europe./FOB Rotterdam./317.75-318.75 EUR/ton./-0.5 EUR/ton

There is abundant supply and little change in demand. The transportation in some areas is not smooth. Methanol analysts of the business community predict that the domestic methanol market may be dominated by weak ones.

Price trend

PP market is relatively negative in the second half of 2022. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the price of domestic PP wire drawing materials was 8608.33 yuan/ton on July 1, which is also the highest point in the second half of 2022. Since then, the price has fluctuated and fell. By November 22, it had fallen below the 8000 mark. The price was 7883.33 yuan/ton, a half year decline of 8.42%, 5.31% lower than the price in the same period last year.

Cause analysis

Macro aspect: the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase, the weakening of international crude oil, and other multiple factors have deepened the pattern of high inflation in the global economy. The macro negative economic environment has long weighed on the PP industry chain.

In terms of raw materials, far upstream international crude oil fell in the second half of the year, and the cost end support of oil based PP and propylene based polypropylene gradually weakened. The adjustment of domestic propane market was weak in the second half of the year, and the amplitude gradually narrowed. The methanol market rose sharply after finishing and running, and the cost support of PDH and FMTP was weak and strong within half a year. In the second half of the year, the polypropylene raw material side rose and fell, and the overall support for the PP cost side was weak.

Supply: China’s PP industry has expanded rapidly in recent years. Since 2018, the average annual capacity growth rate in China has been 10.27%. As of October this year, 2.8 million tons of new production has been put into production, and the total PP production capacity has reached 34.87 million tons. In the long run, the supply is expected to remain loose. In the second half of 2022, the average monthly unit load of the industry is 78.05%, and the average monthly output is stable at about 55.73 tons. In terms of inventory, except for rapid inventory removal during the peak consumption season of “Jinjiu”, the inventory in other months is mainly accumulated, and the effect of inventory removal this month is fair. In the second half of the year, the supply side was under great pressure, which dragged down the spot price.

Demand: In the second half of 2022, the PP terminal factory will generally maintain production in terms of goods, and the weak and strong need to follow up. Although the demand in the peak season of September this year arrived as expected, the horizontal comparison of consumption over the years was slightly inferior. The confidence of downstream operators is not strong, and the stocking operation is cautious and conservative. The raw material inventory level of downstream plastic knitting enterprises and BOPP enterprises, the main force of wire drawing materials, is gradually reduced.

The load of non-woven fabric enterprises downstream of fiber material and melt blown PP was stable at more than 45% within half a year, the digestion speed of end products was stable, and the profit of enterprises fluctuated in a narrow range. In the second half of the year, the situation of international health events in various countries is still not optimistic, and the epidemic situation in China and neighboring countries has rebounded recently. However, it has limited pulling effect on medical melt blown fabric materials and strong market competition. The market of fiber materials and melt blown materials is consistent with the overall market of polypropylene.

Future market forecast

In the second half of 2022, the macro inflationary economic environment will not change, and the profits of petrochemical enterprises will shrink due to its impact. As a whole, the upstream raw materials have weakened their support for PP. In the past six months, most of the market prices have been guided by the fundamentals of the supply and demand game. At present, the PP industry chain is full of empty space, and the mentality of practitioners is not strong. Downstream activities tend to be conservative, and the market momentum is average. It is expected that the PP price will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term, mainly for consolidation and operation.

This week, DOTP prices rose in shock

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 21, the average price of DOTP was 9900 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the average price of 9862.50 yuan/ton on November 13. The price of raw materials rose in shock, while the DOTP rose in shock.

The price of raw materials fluctuated and rose

According to the data of the business association; The price of isooctanol rose sharply this week. As of November 21, the price of isooctanol was 9366.67 yuan/ton, up 2.18% from 9166.67 yuan/ton on November 13. The inventory of isooctanol was low, and the cost rose. The market was supported by a certain amount of good news, and the price of isooctanol rose in shock.

According to the data of the business community, as of November 21, the PTA price was 5713.33 yuan/ton, down 1.38% from the price of 5793.33 yuan/ton on November 13. The low level of international crude oil prices was adjusted by shocks, PTA costs decreased, PTA supply and demand were relatively balanced, PTA prices fell by shocks, and the upward momentum of DOTP was weakened.

Future market expectation

Analysts of DOTP data from the business agency believed that the raw material isooctanol rose in shock this week, PTA prices fell slightly in shock, and the cost of plasticizer DOTP raw materials rebounded in shock. DOTP cost support still exists, and it is expected that DOTP will become stable in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business community, the PVC calcium carbide method SG5 operated in shock this week. On the whole, the price decreased slightly. The average domestic PVC price at the beginning of the week was 6028.57 yuan/ton, the average weekend price was 6022.86 yuan/ton, and the price decreased 0.09% within the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the PVC calcium carbide method SG5 was put into operation in shock, and the overall price decreased slightly. At present, the overall trading and investment situation of the market is relatively light, the actual transaction situation of the spot market is general, the enthusiasm of downstream customers is weak, the market confidence is insufficient, the actual transaction is more cautious, and the demand is strong. Up to now, the quotation range of domestic PVC5 carbide is mostly around 5550-6450 yuan/ton.

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures fell sharply on November 17. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 81.64 dollars/barrel, down 3.95 dollars or 4.6%. WTI fell to the lowest point since October 3. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 89.87 dollars/barrel, down 3.08 dollars or 3.3%.

In terms of calcium carbide, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China fell from 3700 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3683.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 0.45%. The upstream carbon price was consolidated at a high level, with good cost support. The downstream PVC market fell slightly, and the demand for calcium carbide weakened.

3、 Future market forecast

PVC analysts from the business agency believe that PVC fluctuated slightly this week, with a slight decline. The upstream carbide decreased slightly. The downstream demand is general, and the purchase is mainly based on demand, and the new order transaction is cautious. It is expected that in the short term, the PVC market price will fluctuate and consolidate. Pay close attention to the changes in the message.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the hydrogen peroxide market recovered in the middle of November, and the price rose by more than 4% compared with the beginning of the month. On November 4, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market was 823 yuan/ton, and on November 17, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market was 860 yuan/ton, up 4.45%.

The demand for hydrogen peroxide rose sharply

After November 4, the decline of terminal caprolactam market slowed down, and the enthusiasm for purchasing hydrogen peroxide increased, supporting the rise of hydrogen peroxide price. Among them, orders from some manufacturers increased and prices rose steadily. The hydrogen peroxide market of other manufacturers is mainly stable. The overall fluctuation of domestic hydrogen peroxide market is relatively strong. The mainstream quotation in Shandong is about 780 yuan/ton, and that in Anhui is about 950 yuan/ton.

Future outlook

Hydrogen peroxide analysts from the business community believe that the terminal paper industry is in a downturn, and hydrogen peroxide is still under pressure after rising.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of November 16, 2022, the market price reference of domestic industrial dimethyl carbonate was 5933 yuan/ton, which was down 50 yuan/ton, or 0.56%, compared with November 9, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 5983 yuan/ton). On November 16, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate was around 5700-6100 yuan/ton.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that in the near future (11.9-11.16), the overall domestic dimethyl carbonate market is weak and running downward. The trading atmosphere in the market is light, and downstream demand is cautious. Some factories have slightly reduced the price of dimethyl carbonate by 100-200 yuan/ton.

In terms of demand, at present, the downstream of dimethyl carbonate mainly continues to purchase just in need, the overall trading atmosphere in the market is light, the turnover of new orders is low, and the demand side gives insufficient support to the dimethyl carbonate market.

In terms of supply, in the fourth quarter, the domestic supply side of dimethyl carbonate had sufficient capacity. With more supply side growth, the pressure from the supply side also increased. Therefore, the market support for dimethyl carbonate from the supply side was also weak.

Future trend analysis

At present, the overall trading and investment of dimethyl carbonate in the plant is cold, and the support from both sides of supply and demand is ordinary. According to the dimethyl carbonate data engineer of the business community, in the short term, the domestic market of dimethyl carbonate is mainly weak, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes of information on the supply and demand side.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of November 15, the price of lithium iron phosphate, an excellent power product, was 170000 yuan/ton, up 3.03% compared with the same period last week. The overall market was stable and strong. At present, the operating rate is stable, the procurement atmosphere is general, and the mainstream price range is about 170000 yuan/ton. The main target is contract customers, and new customers do not take orders.

The price of lithium iron phosphate, an excellent power product, is 170000 yuan/ton. The price of lithium iron phosphate is stable and strong, and the price range is maintained at 170000 yuan/ton. At present, the downstream just needs procurement, and the operating rate is stable. The overall market of lithium iron phosphate is stable and strong. The manufacturer supplies only old customers, but the number of new customers is limited. As of November 15, the price of lithium carbonate in the upstream has been lowered, and the operation is weak. The industrial market price is 585000 yuan/ton, The battery level market price is 595000 yuan/ton.

Chemical commodity index: On November 14, the chemical index was 943 points, down 2 points from yesterday, down 32.64% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and up 57.69% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)

Analysts of LiFePO4 from the business community believe that the LiFePO4 market will operate stably in the short term.