1、 Price trend

In March 2026, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong Province showed a significant upward trend in a stepped manner, with a monthly increase of up to 66.67%. The price of n-propanol climbed from 5100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8500 yuan/ton at the end of the month.
In early March (March 1st to March 7th), the Shandong n-propanol market saw an upward trend starting from the beginning of the month, with a 23.53% increase within 7 days. At this stage, the main factors are cost and post holiday replenishment, resulting in a wide range of stable price increases.
In mid March (March 8th to March 13th), the Shandong n-propanol market experienced a “pulse like” surge, with prices rapidly rising from 6300 yuan/ton to 8300 yuan/ton, with an increase of over 30% in just six trading days, making it the core stage of the month’s rise. Under the dual driving force of tight supply and rising costs, the market has experienced a surge in prices.
At the end of mid March (March 14th to March 22nd), the Shandong n-propanol market experienced a slight correction, with prices briefly falling from 8300 yuan/ton to 7700 yuan/ton. The market entered a phase of observation, and downstream purchases showed fear due to high prices.
In late March (March 23 to March 31), the Shandong n-propanol market surged and stabilized again, with market prices rising again to 8500 yuan/ton. The sustained support on the cost side and market concerns about subsequent supply have pushed prices back into an upward trend, with prices stabilizing at a high level at the end of the month.
2、 Analysis of Factors Influencing Market Trends
Macro and cost aspects: Geopolitical conflicts ignite the cost of the entire industry chain
The underlying logic behind the current price increase of n-propanol is the full chain cost transmission of crude oil → naphtha → ethylene → n-propanol. Geopolitical conflicts have escalated the situation in the Middle East, causing Brent crude oil prices to skyrocket from $73/barrel at the end of February to $101/barrel in mid March, an increase of over 38%. As the fundamental energy source of the chemical industry, the surge in crude oil prices is the “source flood” of chemical products. Its price increase directly pushes up the cost of ethylene raw materials such as naphtha and ethane, becoming the “source driving force” for the sharp rise in n-propanol prices.
Supply chain disruption: from rising costs to supply concerns
International crude oil is operating at a high level due to macroeconomic disturbances, driving up the cost of ethylene, a raw material for n-propanol. The current cost support is strong, and the profit margin of enterprises is significantly driven by raw material prices, becoming the core driving force for this round of price increases.
Supply and demand side: low inventory+rigid demand, amplifying the price increase effect
Supply side: Low inventory in the industry coupled with limited operating rates. After the Spring Festival in 2026, n-propanol companies generally maintained low inventory operations, and industry inventory was at a low level before the March price increase. Affected by a significant increase in costs, some small and medium-sized n-propanol enterprises have been forced to reduce or shut down due to cost inversion, leading to further contraction of the supply side and forming a feedback of “increasing prices, decreasing prices, and increasing prices”.
Demand side: There is a certain amount of downstream demand support, and the downstream application of n-propanol is concentrated in the fields of coatings, inks, pharmaceutical intermediates, etc. March coincides with the traditional production peak season, and the downstream operating rate is gradually released, which supports the price of essential procurement. Due to concerns about potential supply disruptions in the future, some downstream enterprises have stocked up and made purchases in advance, further driving up market prices.

3、 Future prospects
Analysis from the perspective of supply cost
Supporting factors: High prices of raw materials, uncertainty in supply side maintenance, and the continuation of traditional downstream demand peak seasons continue to provide support for prices.
Risk factors: High prices may suppress downstream purchasing intentions. If the raw material prices fall or the supply side recovers, there may be downward pressure on prices; The wait-and-see sentiment may exacerbate market volatility.
Analysis based on the Business Society Spot Market Analysis System
From the spot market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that on March 6th at the beginning of the month, the 10 day moving average of n-propanol began to cross the 20 day moving average, and during the month, all short-term (10 day) moving averages were higher than the long-term (20 day) moving average. Until the end of the month, the 10 day moving average of n-propanol remained above the 20 day moving average. Therefore, it is predicted that the price of n-propanol in the short term will have an upward trend.
However, auxiliary indicators show that the current price of n-propanol is already at a high level among the five levels. Therefore, the actual driving force for the continued surge in n-propanol prices in the future is limited, and the market is mainly adjusted in the high range. We still need to pay close attention to fluctuations in crude oil prices, equipment operation, and changes in downstream orders.

Recently, the price of acetic anhydride continues to rise
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 31st, the price of acetic anhydride was 6162.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 557.50 yuan/ton or 9.95% compared to the price of 5605.00 yuan/ton on March 25th. Recently (3.25-3.31), the price of acetic anhydride has continued to rise. The acetic anhydride plant operates stably with little change in operating rate. Downstream market entry follows suit, and the market trading atmosphere is still acceptable. The raw material side has strong support, and the price of acetic anhydride has risen sharply. The cost pressure of acetic anhydride has increased, and the manufacturer’s quotation continues to rise, resulting in a continued increase in acetic anhydride prices.
Acetic acid market rises sharply
According to the Business Society Acetic Acid Commodity Market Analysis System, from March 25th to 31st, the price of acetic acid rose from 3476.67 yuan/ton to 4140.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 19.08%. The operating rate of the acetic acid plant has decreased, resulting in a decrease in enterprise inventory and a clear intention of manufacturers to raise prices; The price of raw material methanol is high, and cost support still exists. The acetic acid market is positively optimistic, with a wide range of price trends rising. The cost side provides favorable support for the acetic anhydride market.
Future prospects
The acetic acid analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the price trend of raw material acetic acid is strong, and the cost of acetic anhydride continues to be under pressure. There is not much pressure on the inventory of acetic anhydride on the supply side, and downstream demand purchases follow suit. Acetic anhydride enterprises have a strong upward trend, and it is expected that the acetic anhydride market will consolidate and operate at a high level in the later stage. Specific attention should be paid to changes in the upward trend.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine has increased this month. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 41300 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was 69800 yuan/ton, an increase of 69.01%, which is 140.69% higher than the same period last year. On March 30th, the Business Society Bromine Index was 231.93, up 5.26 points from yesterday, down 5.40% from the highest point of 245.18 points during the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 293.64% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
This month’s market trend: Bromine prices have remained strong and continue to rise. The price of bromine in the Shandong market has risen, with reference prices for manufacturers ranging from 60000 to 72000 yuan/ton. The quotes from manufacturers are firm, and there is a strong bullish atmosphere. The operating rate of the supply industry is steadily increasing, and spot inventory is slowly being replenished. But the overseas situation is tense, and many manufacturers are reluctant to sell. On the demand side: Downstream enterprises have average purchasing enthusiasm and are resistant to the rising demand for bromine, often continuing to purchase for essential needs.
In terms of raw materials, the overall price of domestic sulfur has risen this month, with an average market price of 3910 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 5943.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price has increased by 52%, which is 144.15% higher than the same period last year. Downstream purchases should be made as needed.
Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain strong in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to remain strong. Bromine supply is slowly recovering, but downstream buyers tend to purchase on demand and have resistance to bromine price increases. The overall supply-demand game predicts that bromine prices will continue to remain strong in the later stages, depending on the overseas situation and downstream market demand.

In the second half of March, the price of dimethyl carbonate continued to rise and then fluctuated at a high level. At the end of the month, it quickly fell back, forming a two-way pull between cost support and demand drag.
3.16-3.23: Prices slowly rise, maintaining narrow consolidation, and the market is in a high wait-and-see state. On the 23rd, it quickly surged to a monthly peak of 4866 yuan/ton, an increase of 29.33% from the beginning of the month. Supported by equipment maintenance and strong raw materials, the willingness of enterprises to raise prices reached its peak.
3.23-3.30: Prices enter a high volatility range, downstream purchases are cautious, and transactions are weak. At the end of the month, there was a significant drop, and the effect of high prices suppressing demand was concentrated.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 30th, the average price of industrial grade dimethyl carbonate in China was 4633 yuan/ton, a cumulative decrease of 2.47% in half a month, and an increase of 23.56% compared to early March.
driving factors
Cost increase is the core driving force
The prices of raw materials methanol and epichlorohydrin increased significantly in March, with methanol rising by over 55% and epichlorohydrin rising by over 58%, according to data from Shengyi Society. The rigid bottom support of costs drove up prices. However, in late March, the price of dimethyl carbonate remained weak and fluctuated at a high level, reflecting that companies are still raising prices under cost pressure, but downstream demand has limited ability to bear high prices.
Demand side differentiation restricts the transmission of price increases
Downstream industries such as electrolytes and polycarbonate have low operating loads, and high prices suppress procurement enthusiasm. Enterprises generally adopt a strategy of “purchasing based on sales and following up on small orders”, and the replenishment of essential inventory has been basically completed. Market transactions continue to be sluggish. Resulting in a significantly lower increase in dimethyl carbonate compared to the raw material side, presenting a game pattern of “strong cost push and weak demand connection”.
Tighten the supply end first and then loosen it
In the early stage, multiple major domestic equipment underwent continuous maintenance, resulting in a tight supply of goods in the market and a strong willingness of enterprises to raise prices. Part of the maintenance equipment is scheduled to restart in the latter half of the year, and market expectations for increased supply in the later period are heating up, suppressing price trends.
Future prospects
The dimethyl carbonate market maintains a high volatility under cost support, but weak demand restricts the room for price increases. In the short term, the market is mainly characterized by “high-level stalemate and narrow fluctuations”, with two core concerns: first, whether the prices of upstream methanol and epichlorohydrin will rebound. If the raw materials weaken, the downward space for dimethyl carbonate will be further opened up; The second is the resumption progress of maintenance equipment. If the supply is quickly restored, the price may continue to decline. If there is still no significant improvement in downstream demand, the price center of dimethyl carbonate may shift downwards, and the short-term rebound momentum will be insufficient.

The price of ethylene oxide will increase significantly in March 2026. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of March 27th, the average market price of epoxyethane in China was 8400 yuan/ton, an increase of 52.73% from the market average price of 5500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Reasons for skyrocketing
The main reasons for the sharp rise in the price of ethylene oxide (EO) in March 2026 are cost surge, supply contraction, demand resonance, and leading control.
1. Cost side: Geopolitical conflict triggers upstream, leading to soaring ethylene/ethane prices (core cause)
The skyrocketing prices of crude oil and ethylene: Affected by the escalation of the Middle East situation and the obstruction of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, international crude oil prices have exceeded $100 per barrel, directly driving the price of ethylene to rise sharply. Among them, the external price of ethylene in Northeast Asia rose from about 800 US dollars/ton in early March to 1050 US dollars/ton at the end of the month, and the domestic spot price of ethylene simultaneously exceeded 7700 yuan/ton. According to estimates, for every $10 increase in crude oil prices, the cost per ton of ethylene oxide (EO) will rise by approximately 600-800 yuan.
The soaring cost of imported ethane: Most domestic ethylene oxide (EO) production facilities rely on imported ethane as raw material. Due to the significant increase in international shipping costs and import tariffs, the single ton cost of ethane imports has increased by about 2000 yuan, causing small and medium-sized production enterprises to fall into a cost inversion dilemma and be forced to reduce production to avoid losses.
The rigidity of cost transmission is highlighted: Ethylene oxide (EO) accounts for more than 70% of the cost of core products such as downstream polyether monomers and battery solvents (EC). The cost pressure caused by upstream raw material price increases can be directly and quickly transmitted to the terminal pricing of ethylene oxide (EO), further supporting price increases.
2. Supply side: Device maintenance+cost inversion, significant contraction in market commodity volume
The combination of centralized maintenance and unplanned shutdowns of equipment: In March, China entered the regular maintenance season for ethylene oxide (EO) equipment, and multiple sets of equipment from multiple companies were shut down for maintenance. At the same time, some equipment experienced sudden unplanned shutdowns, resulting in a significant decline in the overall operating rate of the industry and a decrease in effective supply capacity.
Cost inversion leads to reduced production/parking of small and medium-sized factories: For production enterprises without the ability to self supply ethylene oxide (EO) and requiring external procurement of raw materials, the sharp rise in upstream raw material prices has completely eroded their profits, resulting in large-scale load reduction and even parking, further reducing the supply of goods in the market.
Leading enterprises are closing down and collectively raising prices: Leading enterprises in industries such as Sinopec and PetroChina have simultaneously made efforts to significantly increase the listing price of ethylene oxide (EO), with a cumulative increase of over 2600 yuan/ton in March; At the same time, measures such as suspending external quotations, limiting orders, and prioritizing the supply of old customers have been taken to artificially exacerbate the tight supply situation in the market, creating a panic atmosphere of “not being able to buy goods” and promoting price increases.
Insufficient supply elasticity of market commodity volume: Although the total domestic production capacity of ethylene oxide (EO) has exceeded 10 million tons, the newly added capacity is mostly matched with the downstream production demand of enterprises, and the growth of commodity volume released to the outside world is limited. In the face of sudden demand growth, the supply side is difficult to respond quickly, further amplifying the tight supply situation.

3. Demand side: Spring peak season+outbreak of new energy, concentrated release of essential needs
The peak season of “gold, three silver and four” of traditional infrastructure construction: from March to April, the domestic infrastructure and real estate industry resumed production and accelerated, and the policy of superposition of trillions of treasury bond and special debt was put into effect, which led to the centralized release of demand for polycarboxylic acid water reducer (core downstream application of polyether monomer), and the purchase volume of downstream enterprises increased significantly, forming a rigid demand support for ethylene oxide (EO).
Explosive growth in demand for new energy: The rapid expansion of demand in the lithium-ion electrolyte solvent (EC/DMC) industry has become a new engine for the growth of demand for ethylene oxide (EO); Combined with downstream enterprises predicting that prices will continue to rise, they have initiated panic buying operations to further increase demand and drive up the price of ethylene oxide (EO).
The low inventory of the industrial chain forms a positive feedback: the ethylene oxide (EO) market has been operating at a low price for a long time in the early stage, and the overall inventory of various links in the industrial chain remains low; After the price starts to rise, downstream enterprises have a strong willingness to replenish inventory, forming a virtuous cycle of “price increase → grabbing goods → inventory replenishment → further price increase”, accelerating the trend of price increase.
4. Market sentiment and pricing power: led by leaders and supported by funds, amplifying the effect of price increases
Leading enterprises dominate pricing power: The concentration of ethylene oxide (EO) industry is relatively high, and leading enterprises such as Sinopec and PetroChina hold the dominant pricing power in the industry. Against the dual background of rising costs and tight supply and demand, they collectively raise prices significantly to guide the overall upward trend of market prices and further consolidate the upward trend.
Market panic and capital speculation: Under the expectation of tight supply and high costs in the market, traders are hoarding and reluctant to sell, while downstream enterprises panic and grab goods. The market sentiment remains optimistic; At the same time, some funds were involved in speculation, further amplifying price fluctuations and accelerating the rise of ethylene oxide (EO) prices, ultimately resulting in a significant monthly surge.
Future expectations
The mainstream quotation for ethylene oxide (EO) in April is expected to remain at 7500-8200 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the month, due to the inertia of high prices in March and incomplete supply recovery, the price may remain at 7900-8200 yuan/ton; In the middle of the month, as the equipment gradually resumes work and supply increases, the price may slightly drop to 7500-7800 yuan/ton; At the end of the month, supply further recovered and prices tended to stabilize, with a high probability of stabilizing at 7700-7900 yuan/ton. The expected monthly fluctuation range is 5% -8%, far lower than the nearly 50% increase in March.
The main basis is that the core driving logic has shifted from “supply-demand gap+cost surge” in March to “cost support+supply-demand balance”. Short term fluctuations are significantly affected by the resumption of plant work, raw material prices, and downstream demand rhythm, and there is no basis for sustained price surges or drops. In the future, as extreme events subside and the supply side gradually recovers, the supply-demand gap continues to narrow; However, the cost side still has rigidity and there is no significant room for short-term decline.

Overall trend: first skyrocketing, then falling, and then moderately recovering
In March, the domestic dichloromethane market presented a typical “roller coaster” trend, which can be divided into three stages:
Early March: Rapid growth period. Affected by the surge in methanol and liquid chlorine raw materials, the cost side has been strongly driven, and the dichloromethane market has rapidly risen, with prices pushing up to 3265 yuan/ton, a stage increase of 86.04%, becoming the core surge stage of this month’s market.
Mid March: High level decline period. After the price rose to a high level, downstream and traders were cautious about accepting orders from high priced sources, resulting in a significant increase in inventory pressure for enterprises. Due to the decline in liquid chlorine prices and the weakening of methanol, cost support has loosened, forcing companies to lower prices and reduce inventory. As of March 20th, the price has fallen to 2175 yuan/ton, with a drop of about 33.38% from the high point.
Late March: Mild recovery period. With the wide rise of methanol and liquid chlorine, cost support has once again strengthened, and enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices. The price of dichloromethane has slightly rebounded after hitting bottom.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 24th, the mixed price of dichloromethane in Shandong region was 2385 yuan/ton. Driven by the continuous cost side, the market surged 35.9% compared to the beginning of the month, but due to the imbalance between supply and demand, the market fell 7.38% year-on-year, reflecting the core contradiction of “strong cost support and obvious demand drag” in the current market.
Cost aspect: The fluctuation of raw materials is severe, leading the market trend
Liquid chlorine: The liquid chlorine market in Shandong region surged in the first half of the year, fluctuated at a high level in the middle, fell back and gradually stabilized in the second half, showing a violent wave dynamic trend. Its trend is highly synchronized with the dichloromethane market and is the key cost variable that triggered the “roller coaster” trend of dichloromethane this month.
Methanol: Affected by the Middle East conflict, Iran’s import expectations have tightened, and the domestic methanol market has fluctuated upwards, pushing up production costs. According to data from Shengyi Society, the price of methanol on March 24th was 3170 yuan/ton, a sharp increase of 44.09% compared to early March, providing strong cost support for the recovery market of dichloromethane in the latter half of the month.
Supply and demand side: coexistence of loose supply and weak demand
Export obstruction and inventory pressure: Due to shipping disruptions, delays in shipping schedules, and other issues, export orders from the Middle East have significantly decreased, causing the return of goods originally intended for export to the domestic market, resulting in an increase in domestic supply. At the same time, the inventory of production enterprises continues to accumulate, leading to a decrease in market trading enthusiasm.
Supply is stable with an increase: Some enterprises in the region have both reduced and increased their equipment load, and the overall operating rate remains at around 80%. At present, with the gradual resumption of production of the equipment, the market supply is showing a stable and upward trend.
Demand recovery falls short of expectations: downstream industries such as refrigerants, pharmaceuticals, and solvents have not seen a significant increase in demand, which has not met previous market expectations. Terminal enterprises generally adopt a cautious strategy of “purchasing as needed and buying as needed”, resulting in a sluggish overall market transaction performance.

Future outlook:
Looking ahead to April, the dichloromethane market is expected to continue a wide range of volatile patterns, with mixed long and short factors:
Cost support still exists but there is a high risk of fluctuation: methanol prices remain high under the expectation of import volume reduction, forming bottom support for the market; However, as a key variable, if the subsequent supply recovery leads to a price drop, liquid chlorine will directly weaken the cost driving force of dichloromethane.
The supply-demand contradiction needs to be alleviated: on the supply side, with the resumption of equipment production, the market supply is sufficient; On the demand side, it is necessary to focus on the stocking pace of downstream industries. If there is insufficient follow-up on demand, high inventory pressure may force companies to make concessions again.
Market mentality cautious: After experiencing significant fluctuations this month, traders and downstream users have a strong risk aversion and less speculative demand. In the short term, the market will repeatedly play a game between cost support and weak demand, and it is expected that prices will show a periodic rebound followed by a volatile consolidation trend. It is recommended to closely monitor changes in raw material prices and downstream procurement rhythms.

In mid to late March, the domestic epoxy propane market showed an upward trend, characterized by a rapid and significant increase, mainly driven by factors such as cost push and supply contraction. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of March 23, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 11466.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 43.33% compared to March 1.
Raw material side: Propylene is the most essential direct raw material for epichlorohydrin. Affected by supply chain disruptions caused by geopolitical conflicts and supported by crude oil costs, propylene prices remain high and firm. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of March 23, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 8574.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 33.74% compared to the beginning of this month (6411.00 yuan/ton).
Supply side: Since mid March, some epoxy propane units in northern regions have experienced fluctuations; Expected maintenance of some PDH devices; The above factors have led to a reduction in the spot circulation of epichlorohydrin and a tightening of market supply. Faced with the dual pressure of cost and supply, epoxy propane production enterprises actively raise their ex factory prices. Taking Binhua Group as an example, on March 23rd, there was a significant increase of 1100 yuan/ton, and the final quotation reached 11600 yuan/ton.
On the demand side: In the second half of March, the soft foam and hard foam polyether markets passively rose with raw materials. As of March 20th, the price of hard foam polyether in North China reached 10000-11000 yuan/ton, but there was little change in the operation of polyether factories, mainly focusing on delivering early orders. With the rapid rise in epoxy propane prices, downstream enterprises have shown obvious resistance to high priced raw materials, resulting in a stalemate in on-site negotiations, limited follow-up on new orders, and increased pressure on some merchants to ship, leading to frequent occurrences of low-priced sources.
Market forecast: Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that the price of propylene on the raw material side will rise, coupled with sudden shutdowns and low load operations of the equipment, exacerbating the shortage of spot goods, and the cost side will still maintain strong support. However, downstream demand has insufficient acceptance of high priced raw materials, weak willingness to chase after high prices, and limited follow-up on new orders. It is expected that the domestic epoxy propane market will remain stable with a moderate to strong consolidation and operation in the near future. The future market trend requires close attention to the restart progress of large-scale facilities such as Sinochem Quanzhou, as well as the actual sustainability of the “rush to export” of polyether.

This week, the domestic fluorite price trend has slightly increased. As of the weekend, the average price of fluorite in China was 3481.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.36% from the beginning of the week price of 3468.75 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.78%.
Supply side: Multiple factors affecting the tightness of fluorite spot prices
1. The resumption of mining production falls short of expectations, and the operating rate in the main production areas is sluggish
Recently, the overall resumption progress of domestic fluorite mines and beneficiation plants has been slow, and the core production areas in the north are constrained by both weather and policies, resulting in a much lower operating load than the same period in previous years. As the main production area of fluorite in China, Inner Mongolia was still affected by low temperature weather in early March, which hindered mining and transportation. In addition, during the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, safety and environmental protection inspections were intensified, and some small and medium-sized mines were shut down for rectification, resulting in limited release of compliant production capacity; Although production areas such as Jiangxi, Zhejiang, and Fujian in the south are gradually resuming work, they are constrained by tight raw ore supply and slow improvement in the operating rate of beneficiation plants, making it difficult to make up for the supply gap in the north. The overall operating rate of fluorite in the country remains low, and the spot output is lower than market expectations.
2. Normalization of industry regulation and continuous clearance of existing production capacity
As a national strategic scarce mineral, fluorite has been continuously upgraded in safety and environmental control in recent years, with increased efforts to control the total amount of mining and accelerated elimination of backward small and medium-sized mines, leading to a continuous increase in industry concentration. The approval process for new mines is strict, and mineral exploration is difficult. The effective production capacity growth of domestic fluorite is weak, and high-grade raw ore is becoming increasingly scarce. At the same time, the normalization of mining rectification and production restrictions has further compressed the market circulation of goods. Manufacturers’ inventories are generally at a low level, and traders have limited stock reserves and extremely low willingness to sell at low prices, forming a market pattern of “less goods, higher prices”.
3. Limited import supplementation makes it difficult to alleviate the domestic supply-demand gap
Although the domestic dependence on foreign fluorite exceeds 30%, the supply of overseas sources has also been tight recently, and there has been no significant increase in import volume. Due to transportation and production capacity limitations, major import sources such as Mongolia have received less fluorite than expected, and import costs remain high, making it difficult to effectively supplement the domestic spot shortage, further exacerbating the domestic supply shortage and supporting the strengthening of domestic trade prices.
Demand side: downstream fluorine chemical industry recovery requires urgent support gradually emerging
1. Hydrofluoric acid market rebounds, driving demand for raw material procurement
The downstream anhydrous hydrofluoric acid market is strengthening synchronously, with mainstream delivery prices rising to 12500-13000 yuan/ton. Some enterprises have restarted their facilities and their operating rates have rebounded, leading to an increase in the demand for fluorite raw materials. Although hydrofluoric acid enterprises have been affected by the price increase of sulfuric acid and other auxiliary materials, their profit margins have been compressed, and they tend to purchase high priced fluorite rationally. However, the demand for stocking during peak seasons is gradually released, and the trading center of fluorite is steadily shifting upwards under the support of essential needs. Downstream price increases are further transmitted to the upstream raw material end.

2. The implementation of refrigerant quotas and the expected increase in stocking during peak seasons
The refrigerant quota policy will be officially implemented in 2026, further increasing industry concentration and orderly release of production capacity by top enterprises. Coupled with the approaching summer air conditioning refrigeration peak season, refrigerant products will increase in price comprehensively. Downstream refrigerant companies will stock up in advance, driving the demand for hydrofluoric acid and fluorite in the upstream to warm up. At the same time, the demand for fluorine chemical products in the fields of new energy and new materials continues to grow. The growth rate of demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate, fluorine-containing polymers and other products is impressive, indirectly driving the demand for fluorite. The resilience of medium and long-term demand is highlighted, providing support for fluorite prices.
Market forecast: The tight supply-demand balance in the domestic fluorite market is difficult to change, and prices still have upward momentum. On the supply side, weather and policy controls in northern production areas will continue, making it difficult to accelerate the resumption of mining production in the short term, and the low inventory pattern will continue; On the demand side, with the rise in temperature, the downstream fluorine chemical production rate will further increase, and the demand for stocking during peak season will continue to be released. Cost and emotional support are still present, and it is expected that the price of fluorite will maintain a strong oscillation trend, and some high-grade source quotations are expected to further rise.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate has shown a fluctuating trend recently. As of March 17th, the benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate in Shengyi Society was 155000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.12% compared to the same period last week (March 10th), a month on month increase of 6.9%, and a year-on-year increase of 10.3%.
Inventory side: Low inventory supports firm prices
The industry’s inventory remains low and the trend of destocking is clear. Statistics show that spot inventory of lithium carbonate has dropped to a temporary low, with smelter inventory reaching a nearly three-year low and downstream stocking also at a low level. The low inventory pattern significantly narrows the downward space for prices, providing strong support for lithium prices.
Supply side: Frequent disturbances both domestically and internationally
The impact of the Spring Festival holiday is gradually subsiding, and domestic lithium salt enterprises have generally resumed production, resulting in a significant rebound in the overall production schedule of the industry.
However, the supply elasticity of the industry is still constrained by multiple factors: on the one hand, the progress of domestic core lithium resource resumption is not as expected; On the other hand, there has been a sudden change in the policies of key lithium resource countries overseas, which has caused significant disruptions to the supply chain. The country recently announced a suspension of all lithium concentrate exports to promote localized processing of lithium resources. Although other major exporting countries have increased their exports of lithium concentrate to China on a month on month basis, to some extent filling the supply gap, the fragility of the global lithium supply chain has been further highlighted.
Demand side: Energy storage becomes the core growth engine of demand
The downstream has entered the traditional production peak season, and the production scheduling data has shown impressive performance. On March 16th, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the operation of the national economy in January and February 2026. At the meeting, it was stated that the production of lithium-ion batteries for energy storage increased by 84% from January to February. The demand for energy storage is growing rapidly. Although the sales of new energy vehicles have fluctuated due to seasonal factors in the early stage, the production of power batteries has shown a significant seasonal recovery, providing solid support for overall demand.
Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that the explosive growth of energy storage demand has become a deterministic trend, while global lithium resource supply continues to be constrained by multiple factors such as geopolitics, environmental protection, and industrial policies. The lithium carbonate market is gradually shifting from a loose pattern in the early stage to a tight balance in the medium to long term, and the price center is receiving strong support. Specific attention still needs to be paid to changes in market supply and demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 6th to 13th (as of 15:00), the domestic methanol market in East China port prices rose from 2595 yuan/ton to around 2832 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 9.15% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 28.65%, and a year-on-year increase of 7.77%. The domestic methanol market trading is still mainly influenced by geopolitics, and the rising sentiment on the futures side is gradually transmitted to the spot market; Supported by the continuous destocking of enterprises, the increasing demand for locally sourced olefins, and the gradual recovery of downstream demand, methanol prices have shown a significant surge.

As of the close on March 13th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2605, opened at 2754 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2887 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2723 yuan/ton. It closed at 2805 yuan/ton in the closing session, up 32 yuan/ton or 1.15% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 2171545, the position is 584205, and the daily increase is 13631.
On the cost side, downstream coal enterprises have resumed work and production one after another, and demand expectations have increased. Market prices are mainly stable. The cost impact is mixed.
On the demand side, the downstream end is affected by the sharp rise in raw material methanol, and the prices of various downstream products are rising accordingly. Currently, the profitability is quite considerable, MTO、 The profit growth of the acetic acid and methane chloride industries is the most significant. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards favorable factors.
Supply side, extended device maintenance; Some devices have been restored; The overall loss exceeds the recovery, resulting in a decrease in production and a decrease in capacity utilization. Recently, there has been an increase in methanol recovery facilities and a decrease in maintenance and production reduction facilities, resulting in an overall increase in market supply. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on March 12th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $494-496 per ton, up $39.5 per ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 106-108 cents/gallon, up 2 cents/gallon; The European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 380-382 euros/ton, up 13 euros/ton.
The future forecast shows that the expected import volume will decrease in the near future, and the performance of upstream destocking will be affected, but the overall destocking intensity is weaker than expected. Overall, the methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will be mainly dominated by strong consolidation.