Aluminum market trend

 

According to the data of business agency, as of May 29, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots was 13476.67 yuan / ton, up 5.18% compared with the average market price of 12813.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (May 1), and up 16.92% compared with the average market price of 11526.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of April (April 1).

 

Aluminum price in May led the basic metal plate

 

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in May 2020, there are 17 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the nonferrous sector, including 5 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 22.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities rising are silver (15.57%), dysprosium oxide (8.68%) and dysprosium ferroalloy (7.04%). Among the basic metal plates, aluminum ranked first in terms of growth, followed by aluminum (5.18%), tin (3.20%), lead (2.91%), copper (2.63%), zinc (0.26%), and nickel (0.43%).

 

Aluminum price in May led the basic metal plate. On the one hand, aluminum price fell deeply in the early panic decline process of non-ferrous plate, ranking second in the basic metal plate, second only to copper. The vacancy hit by the fall is deep, and there is a large space for retaliatory rebound. The increase in April is relatively low, and the aluminum price rebounded rapidly in May. As of May 29, the relative range of aluminum price rebound ranked third in the basic metal plate, lagging behind tin and lead.

 

According to the data of the business association, the deepest decline order of the year beginning (January 1) is copper (- 24.93%), aluminum (- 22.79%), zinc (- 20.36%), nickel (- 18.66%), tin (- 15.09%) and lead (- 13.09%). As of May 29, the order of the closest benchmark price is Sn (- 1.80%), Pb (- 4.67%), Al (- 7.40%), Zn (- 9.09%), Cu (- 9.60%) and Ni (- 11.40%).

 

The price recovery of non-ferrous plate reflects the gradual recovery of manufacturing economy with the full expansion of domestic resumption of production from April to May. According to BCI data, in May 2020, BCI was 0.37, with an average increase of 4.45%. The increase of BCI shows that the manufacturing economy is expanding compared with last month.

 

The domestic supply and demand data of electrolytic aluminum also confirmed the above views.

 

***Production is obvious without subtracting inventory***

 

In April 2020, China’s electrolytic aluminum production reached 2.958 million tons, an increase of 2.4% year on year. From January to April, the cumulative production of electrolytic aluminum in China was 11.934 million tons, up 3.6% year on year. According to relevant data, the domestic aluminum consumption in April was 3.3-3.35 million tons, an increase of about 580000 tons compared with March.

 

In the middle and late May, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory (including SHFE warehouse receipt) was below 1 million tons for the first time. On May 22, the total inventory of aluminum ingots for consumption in domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory (including SHFE warehouse receipt) was 964000 tons, a decrease of 472000 tons on a month on month basis. In May, under the background of increasing supply, domestic aluminum ingot inventory realized continuous high-speed de stocking, mainly based on the demand exceeding expectations and the increase of aluminum water supply.

 

Among them, the terminal product demand industry exceeded the expected performance, driving the industry chain to better expectations. For example, in the automobile industry, the automobile output in April was 2.012 million, up 2.26% year on year. In April, the automobile sales volume was 2.069 million, up 4.41% year on year, continuing the recovery momentum in March. In April, the real estate development prosperity index was 98.86, 0.67 points higher than that in March.

 

Note: orders for building profiles are concentrated in the fields of doors and windows, curtain walls and formworks, and the expected demand for old transformation and new infrastructure construction is strengthening. The demand for instant noodles for automobile, household appliances and mechanical equipment continues to recover.

 

Can aluminum price fill the “epidemic pit” in June

 

At present, in the futures market, the recent contract price is higher than the forward contract, and the futures market is expected to be short, mainly based on the consideration of import and export factors.

 

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***Poor overseas demand, export pressure***

 

Under the influence of the overseas epidemic, China’s export orders have a greater impact. China exported 441177.1 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in April, according to the General Administration of customs. In the first four months of 2020, the total export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 1628923.2 tons, down 15.9% from 1936337.8 tons in the same period of last year.

 

In April 2020, 72000 tons of waste aluminum will be imported, a year-on-year decrease of 53.3% and a month on month decrease of 6.7%. From January to April, 270000 tons of waste aluminum were imported, a year-on-year decrease of 64.7%.

 

***Strong uncertainty of production capacity after profit recovery***

 

Rough weighted estimation shows that 1.93 tons of alumina, 0.48 tons of anode carbon block, 0.02 tons of aluminum fluoride, 0.01 tons of cryolite and 13500 degrees of electric power are consumed per ton of aluminum, and the weighted cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum production is about 11800-12000 yuan / ton. The profit of aluminum plant will gradually go out from the market of pit bottom explosion loss, and the subsequent domestic production capacity may be released. (the new capacity in 2020 is estimated by quarter, as follows)

 

***Export pressure of internal and external aluminum price differentiation increases***

 

With the recovery of domestic aluminum price, foreign aluminum price is suppressed by the epidemic situation, and the market lags behind obviously. At present, the profit window of aluminum ingot import is gradually opened. As of June 1, the price of lemd is around 11000 yuan / ton, and the main price of Shanghai aluminum is around 13100 yuan / ton.

 
The supply and demand fundamentals of the domestic market have improved effectively, social inventory has continued to move down, domestic demand is expected to turn warm in the second quarter, and the price has risen significantly. The supply and demand of foreign market is relatively weak, and the price difference between domestic and foreign market is large, which is bad for export.

 

Based on domestic demand, aluminum price in June may enter a period of shock

 

The current price trend is: spot price of domestic aluminum ingots > recent contract price of Shanghai aluminum > forward contract price of Shanghai aluminum within the year > contract price of lunwai aluminum.

 

From April to may, the price of aluminum rose, and the influence factor of spot was large. It can also be confirmed from the domestic aluminum production in April:

Monthly production of aluminum in each region in March and April (unit: 10000 tons)

 

Domestic terminal consumption has recovered, and the inventory of aluminum ingots has continued to move down. At present, the consumption of downstream consumer profiles and aluminum foil plates is better, while the consumption of aluminum strip and recycled aluminum and aluminum cable tends to be weaker, taking into account 7 and 8 The month is the traditional off-season of aluminum consumption (although in the historical price trend, the off-season has no obvious impact on the price). In the environment of difficult export and based on domestic demand, ye Jianjun, an analyst of the business club, predicted that the aluminum price in June was weak. With the gradual convergence of the overseas market, the probability of a sharp jump in domestic aluminum price was not large, and it is expected to run in a volatile way within the 12800-13800 yuan / ton range Lord.

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According to the monitoring and statistics of the business agency, the price of domestic fluorite fell in May. The price at the end of the month was 2655.56 yuan / ton, down 4.02% compared with 2766.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The price of fluorite first decreased and then increased in the whole may, but the overall price still fell.

 

In May, the price trend fell first and then rose. At the beginning of May, due to the increase of domestic fluorite price supply and the Limited procurement of downstream hydrofluoric acid enterprises, the market price of fluorite declined significantly. In the middle of the year, fluorite price remained low and fluctuated. Some fluorite manufacturers reported that the price was near the cost line, and fluorite price trend was stable. However, at the end of the month, domestic enquiries increased. Some manufacturers reported that their orders for fluorspar had increased recently. Stimulated by the increase of enquiries, domestic fluorspar manufacturers had strong rising sentiment. The price of fluorspar was ready to be issued, and the price in the market bottomed out and rebounded. The operation of domestic fluorite manufacturers is stable, the operation of mines and flotation units in the site is normal, the delivery of fluorite in the site is improved, and the market price of fluorite is slightly higher. As of the end of the month, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2500-2700 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 2600-2800 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2600-2800 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2600-2800 yuan / ton. In recent years, domestic fluorite merchants are bullish, and the trading market of domestic fluorite market is warmer, but the overall price in May Georgia is still down.

 

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In May, the market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite declined. As of the end of the month, the market price of hydrofluoric acid in China was 8630 yuan / ton, with an overall decline of 10.66%. The decline of the market price of hydrofluoric acid had a certain negative impact on the upstream fluorite market, and the overall price of fluorite fell. Affected by public health events, domestic refrigerant industry demand is not good. On the one hand, the domestic demand is not good, the refrigerant industry starts to maintain less than 30%, which is not good for the upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand. On the other hand, the export of refrigerants in the past two months has been limited to a certain extent, and the domestic safety and health time is serious. The economy of overseas enterprises has just started to resume work, and the export of refrigerants has declined sharply, resulting in the low price of domestic refrigerants industry. In May, the price of refrigerant products fell. As of the end of the month, the price of domestic R22 products was 14833.33 yuan / ton, down 10.10% in two months; the price of R134a was 18833.33 yuan / ton, down 15.67%. In recent years, the sales of automobile industry is in a downturn, the market price of refrigerant downstream of the terminal is significantly lower, foreign special events are serious, the export of refrigerant terminal is not smooth, in addition to the low start of domestic air conditioning industry, and the demand for maintenance and after-sales is weak. Overall, domestic and foreign demand are not as expected. The price of refrigerant products continued to decline. In addition, the procurement of downstream industries was not active, and the demand situation was poor. The price of refrigerant products was low, and the downstream demand did not improve significantly. The price of fluorite market still fell in May.

 

On the whole, fluorite prices fell in May. In recent years, fluorite market reflected the increase of inquiry list, the shortage of spot supply of fluorite, and the reluctance of merchants to sell. However, the market of downstream refrigerant industry did not improve significantly. Chen Ling, an analyst of business agency, thinks that fluorite prices will maintain an upward trend in June, but the demand of refrigerant industry has not improved significantly, and fluorite market growth will be affected to a certain extent Limitations.

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Commodity index: on May 29, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 98.78, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.38% from 109.01 (2019-08-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 1.52% from 97.30, the lowest point on April 23, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

 

Business agency (100 ppi.com ）According to the monitoring data, after the reduction of polyaluminium chloride (solid, content ≥ 28%) in April 2020, the overall quotation range of the whole country did not change much in May, the quotation of quotation enterprises monitored by the business association was stable, and the prices of some other manufacturers were slightly reduced, about 20-50 yuan / ton. Main quotation: industrial grade, liquid and alumina content 10%-12% including tax 350-400 yuan / ton; solid content, 20-21% quoted price 860 yuan / ton; content 24% quoted price 1100-1200 yuan / ton; content 26% price 1280-1400 yuan / ton; solid content, 28% or more, price 1580-2000 yuan / ton; spray type content is more than 30% 30% yuan 1600-1850 yuan / ton; drinking water level, content is more than 28% 28% price quoted yuan yuan / ton, food grade quoted price About 0 yuan / ton.

 

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According to the data of business agency, in the upstream products of polyaluminium chloride, the factory price of hydrochloric acid in North China increased slightly in May, 196 yuan / ton on May 1, 209 yuan / ton on May 29, with a range of 6.64%, and the monthly variation frequency was not high. The actual transaction price of the manufacturer shall be subject to negotiation. The upstream liquid chlorine market is generally weak in support of hydrochloric acid, while the downstream dyes, calcium chloride and chloroethane are still mainly purchased according to early demand. Hydrochloric acid market as a whole seems to be declining, and by-product acid is still hitting the market. The pressure of hydrochloric acid delivery is relatively high, and the quality of by-product hydrochloric acid produced by TDI, chloropropene, propylene oxide and methane chloride is relatively good. On the whole, the difficulty of hydrochloric acid delivery is still a big problem. Downstream: the current market demand is still the biggest factor affecting the price of products, while the downstream demand is still relatively low.

 

As far as the whole industry is concerned, from 2020 to now, during the Spring Festival holiday to February 20, the relevant enterprises in the main production area have stopped production and delayed to return to work; after February 20, the manufacturers in the main production area have resumed production in succession; in March, the logistics has gradually recovered, and the transportation cost has returned to normal; in April, the overall production is normal, due to the difficulty of delivery, some enterprises still have high inventory, and the production is affected; in May, polyaluminium chloride The overall demand has not recovered, the market situation is poor, the shipment is average, and the transaction continues to be weak.

 

With regard to the future market, the analysis of the business agency shows that the price of raw materials fluctuated slightly in the upstream in May, the downstream demand did not get better, the transaction atmosphere was general, the future market of polyaluminium chloride will remain stable, and the enterprises with higher inventory will reduce the price.

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US gasoline cracking price gap continues to fall, API inventory growth higher than expected

 

Yesterday morning we suggested that the adjustment of crude oil is not over and there may be a significant correction. WTI fell 6.07% yesterday. API inventory growth was higher than expected, adding to the decline in crude oil. Yesterday’s API inventory report showed an increase of 8.73 million barrels in crude oil, 1.12 million barrels in gasoline, 6.91 million barrels in heating oil and 3.37 million barrels in Cushing. With the recovery of oil prices, crude oil production is expected to pick up. The price of more than $30 per barrel will enable some shale oil companies to survive. For prices above $40, the discipline of OPEC + production reduction will be reduced.

 

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Us fuel seasonal peak demand started flat. Memorial Day usually marks the beginning of the summer driving season in the United States. From last Thursday to Monday, the demand for gasoline in the United States decreased by 1.34% compared with the previous week, and the consumption on Monday decreased by 0.5% compared with the previous week. The consumption of gasoline on this long weekend decreased by 25% to 35% compared with the previous week. Despite the open beaches and the impact of the epidemic, people drive locally, whereas in previous years they travel far away. The price difference of gasoline cracking in the United States continues to fall, while gasoline keeps up with crude oil. In the near future, the price difference of gasoline cracking in the United States continues to fall, indicating that the gasoline price is weak with the rising crude oil price.

 

The limited boost in gasoline demand after the resumption of work in the United States may be related to the trend of home office. The follow-up crude oil needs to be shaken and consolidated, waiting for the global resumption of work to further strengthen, so as to promote the consumption of gasoline and diesel oil and boost the cracking profit, so that crude oil can have a new impetus to a new level. Short term attention Brent 08 contract support around 34-35, SC due to the relatively strong depreciation of RMB. The crude oil monthly spread weakened. In the middle of May, Brent’s monthly difference between January and February strengthened to – 0.24, the highest since the middle of March this year. The recent high volatility of crude oil, Brent’s monthly difference between January and February weakened to – 0.71 again yesterday. Middle East to Far East freight rose 0.17 to 1.81. EFS-0.69。

 

Industry highlights: 1. Some organizations predict that the global oil market may realize the balance of supply and demand in June;

 

① Compared with Russia’s news on the recovery of supply and demand balance of oil market in July, some analysts and banks predict that the global crude oil market may achieve supply and demand balance as early as June, with the easing of the epidemic blockade, the reduction of production by top producers and the recovery of demand.

 

② JBC Energy said: “as we approach June, the market sentiment will further strengthen, and the global net short crude oil position will reach 1.5 million barrels / day, the lowest level since August 2019.”

 

③ Traffic congestion data from some of the world’s capitals show that gasoline demand has returned to its level a year ago.

 

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④ The IEA expects the pressure on global storage to ease significantly in the second half of the year. Neil Atkinson, head of IEA’s oil industry and markets division, said: “as we fall into supply shortages in the second half of the year, the trend of inventory filling will begin to reverse.”

 

⑤ Goldman Sachs said this month that the global oil market would be in short supply in June, adding that the biggest improvement in demand was the use of gasoline for road transport in China, the US and Germany.

 

⑥ But Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank International is expected to reach a balance by the end of August or mid September, saying that the rise in liquidity so far “will not offset the collapse of demand.”.

 

⑦ Bank of America’s global research department is cautious about any forecast, saying: “we cannot rule out the second spread of the epidemic and further blockade. Any surplus in the oil market may quickly break this delicate balance.”

 

2. Wood McKenzie: China’s gasoline and diesel demand is expected to achieve year-on-year growth in the third quarter;

 

① China’s gasoline and diesel demand is expected to grow year-on-year in the third quarter of this year as the economy restarts on a larger scale, and China’s oil demand is expected to grow 2.3% year-on-year in the second half of this year, wood McKenzie, an international energy consultancy, said Tuesday.

 

② Wood McKenzie predicted that China’s oil demand will pick up to 13 million barrels per day in the second quarter of this year, up 16.3% on month, but still down 2.5% year on year.

 

③ Wood Mackenzie said that private cars are favored due to safety under the impact of the epidemic, China is also relaxing the epidemic restrictions on social, commercial and tourism activities, and gasoline demand is rapidly recovering, which is likely to pick up to the same level last year in June.

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1、 Price trend

 

This week (5.18-22), the domestic polysilicon market continued the decline in the first ten days of May, and the price continued to explore the bottom. The prices of polycrystalline compact materials and polycrystalline non washable materials declined to varying degrees, mainly because the prices of manufacturers continued to decline, and the price of imported silicon materials successively hit the domestic market with a new low. However, the root cause is still at the demand side. In the context of the epidemic, the downstream purchase demand further shrank, and the export orders of components significantly shrank. Therefore, the market price of polysilicon continued to decline this week, and the price of new orders in the market dropped a lot. According to the monitoring of the business agency, this week’s polycrystalline silicon solar grade I material decline is 4.49%. At present, the price of polycrystalline silicon has maintained a downward trend for six consecutive weeks. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of polycrystalline silicon has reached a new low.

 

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2、 Market analysis

 

In terms of market supply, at present, polysilicon supply is still abundant. Affected by inventory pressure and sluggish downstream procurement, the number of maintenance manufacturers is also increasing. As of May 22, the number of domestic polysilicon maintenance and load reduction manufacturers increased from 2 in April to 5. In addition, from the perspective of polysilicon import end, polysilicon import price continued to decline this week, down about 5000 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month, and cheap silicon materials continued to impact the domestic market. At present, manufacturers mainly execute orders in the early stage, most of which are signed in June, and some of them have signed orders in June. In addition, affected by the increase of transportation cost caused by high-speed charges, the profits of manufacturers are further squeezed, and the delivery speed of manufacturers is further reduced. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the main domestic transaction price of polysilicon with the model of primary solar material is 38000-42000 yuan / ton.

 

From the perspective of demand, the terminal demand is still weak, especially the external demand continues to decline, the global terminal installation is blocked, and the overseas orders of domestic component end are delayed or cancelled, resulting in the operation rate of domestic component manufacturers to be reduced, which is transmitted to the silicon material part of the upstream industrial chain, especially at present, the epidemic situation in India is becoming increasingly serious, the demand temperature is delayed, and the polycrystalline demand is significantly reduced The mouth is greatly affected. The production time of new single crystal production capacity can only be delayed, and domestic production remains stable. At present, there is no release of new production capacity, which also alleviates the pressure brought by the supply side to some extent. On the other hand, the downstream components are affected by the decline of overseas demand, and the reduction of orders causes the price to drop again and again, which is transmitted to the upstream silicon material industry, forcing enterprises to reduce the price for shipment..

 

3、 Future prospects

 

In the future, the business community believes that the supply pressure of polysilicon is still obvious at present, but in the later stage, with more and more enterprise maintenance, it is currently 5 enterprise maintenance, which is expected to increase to 7 by the end of the month, and the supply pressure in the later stage may be resolved. However, the demand side problem is expected to be difficult to solve in the short term, mainly due to the fact that the overseas epidemic trend has not been effectively controlled, especially in India, where the demand for photovoltaic products in China has shrunk, the price of orders has fallen, and the overseas anti-dumping efforts against photovoltaic products in China have increased, the export situation in the short term is still not optimistic, and the recent price of silicon materials is still under pressure.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in North China this week was temporarily stable, with an offer of 203.33 yuan / ton. On the whole, hydrochloric acid market is stable this week, with the hydrochloric acid commodity index of 53.51 on May 22.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

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（1） Products:

 

This week, the quotation of hydrochloric acid market manufacturers is temporarily stable, and the overall market is average. The quotation of Taiyuan kunshengda hydrochloric acid is 420 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; the quotation of Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid is 300 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; the weekend quotation of Wenshui synthetic hydrochloric acid is 260 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the weekend quotation of Jinan Yuanfei hydrochloric acid is 450 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the weekend quotation of Dezhou Meihua hydrochloric acid is 150 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

 

（2） Industrial chain:

 

The upstream liquid chlorine market is generally weak in support of hydrochloric acid, while the downstream dyes, calcium chloride and chloroethane are still mainly purchased according to early demand. Hydrochloric acid market as a whole seems to be declining, and by-product acid is still hitting the market. The pressure of hydrochloric acid delivery is relatively high, and the quality of by-product hydrochloric acid produced by TDI, chloropropene, propylene oxide and methane chloride is relatively good. On the whole, the difficulty of hydrochloric acid delivery is still a big problem.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

The upstream liquid chlorine market is generally in the near future, while the downstream rare earth and fuel demand is weak. Business analysts believe that the recent low consolidation of hydrochloric acid mainly.

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According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride rose this week. As of the end of the week, the price of phthalic anhydride by ortho phthalic method was 5012.5 yuan / ton, 2.56% higher than the price of 4887.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 20.14% year on year. In the near future, the market price of phthalic anhydride has recovered.

 

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In recent years, the price of domestic phthalic anhydride market rebounded and rose. Supported by the rising crude oil price, the price of some downstream petrochemical products rebounded and rose. The market price of phthalic anhydride is no exception. In recent years, the market price of phthalic anhydride is slightly higher. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers is normal, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride in the site is more than 60%, the spot supply of domestic phthalic anhydride is normal, the procurement of downstream plasticizer industry is better than before, the delivery market of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is better, and the market price of phthalic anhydride rebounds. As of the 22nd day, the market price of phthalic anhydride in East China increased slightly, but the high-end transactions in the market were blocked. The main flow of negotiation of neighboring France’s source of goods in East China was 4900-5200 yuan / ton, and that of naphthalene’s source of goods was 4500-4700 yuan / ton; the main flow of negotiation of phthalic anhydride market in North China was 4900-5100 yuan / ton, and the wait-and-see mentality in phthalic anhydride market was still strong, the market was slightly improved, and the price of phthalic anhydride was small rise.

 

In terms of the industrial chain, the price trend of o-benzene and DOP monitored by the business association is as follows:

 

It can be seen from the above trend chart that the price trend of upstream orthobenzene is fluctuating. In the near future, the price of CNPC’s orthobenzene is maintained at 4000 yuan / ton. The price of imported orthobenzene in port area is fluctuating and rising, and the price is stable. In the near future, the price of port orthobenzene is general, and the price of external orthobenzene is rising. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation. The detailed negotiation shows that the price of imported orthobenzene in port area is getting warmer, and the transaction on site is rare , the price of o-benzene slightly increased, the upstream raw material price volatility brought some good support, the market price of phthalic anhydride was affected higher.

 

By the end of the week, the average price of domestic DOP market was 7033.33 yuan / ton. DOP enterprises operated at low load and DOP manufacturers sold stocks. DOP prices rose, PVC enterprises started normal equipment, customer procurement enthusiasm increased. The price of plasticizer has increased. The market price of DOP is about 6900-7200 yuan / ton. The transaction enthusiasm of market plasticizer is general, the high-speed charges increase, and the logistics and transportation costs increase. Influenced by the increase of crude oil price, the market price trend of phthalic anhydride has increased.

 

On the whole, crude oil price will maintain good support in the short term, with price shocks as the main factor. The price of domestic petrochemical products will rise slightly affected by this. Business analysts believe that the market price of phthalic anhydride will still rise slightly in the short term.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the domestic xylene market price fluctuated slightly this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3430 yuan / ton, down 3.65% on last week.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

1. Product: as Europe and the United States gradually liberalize the restrictions on the epidemic blockade, global demand is expected to improve, but the overall demand is still insufficient. Affected by this, the domestic xylene price is adjusted by shocks this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3570 yuan / ton.

 

2. Industrial chain:

 

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Upstream, in terms of crude oil, supported by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait taking the lead in reducing production, the three major crude oil market reports show that the current oversupply situation has eased. At the same time, with the gradual release of restrictions on the epidemic blockade in Europe and the United States, global crude oil demand is expected to improve. Affected by this, this week’s oil price rebound. However, the market is still worried about the risk of a second outbreak, and the weak economic outlook of the United States still limits the rise of oil prices. Generally speaking, early signs of gradual recovery of oil market balance can be seen, but uncertainty in the oil industry still exists. As of early Friday morning, Brent futures rose 29.62%, Brent futures 17.68%, WTI futures 17.41% and Dubai futures 25.12%.

 

Downstream, in PX market, the price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises this week is about 4000 yuan / ton, and the latest price on the outside market is about 467 US dollars / ton for FOB South Korea and 485 US dollars / ton for CFR China. It is expected that the market price of PX will maintain a stable trend in the short term. In terms of PTA market, the price of domestic PTA spot market is about 3450 yuan / ton, and the price of external market is about 417 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that PTA price trend will be stable next week. In the ox market, Sinopec’s offer of o-benzene is stable, with the price of 4000 yuan / ton. The external price of o-benzene is about 455 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will be stable next week.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to xylene analysts from the chemical branch of business society, in the short term, we can see the supply cost end, OPEC + production reduction, crude oil futures delivery trend in June, and the situation in the US and Iraq. In the medium term, we can see the demand side, the progress of economic restart in Europe and the United States, and the progress of industrial chain recovery. Next week, we will focus on the impact of the delivery trend of crude oil futures in June. Comprehensively, it is expected that the xylene price in the domestic market next week will depend on the trend of crude oil, with great uncertainty.

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1、 Price trend:

 

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of ethylene in the external market has been on the rise recently. The average price of ethylene on the 17th was 420.75 US dollars / ton, and on the 19th was 513.25 US dollars / ton, up 21.98%. The current price is down 51.20% year on year.

 

2、 Market analysis:

 

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Product: ethylene is on the rise in the near future. Asian ethylene market prices rose, as of the 19th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at $575-585 / T, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at $530-540 / T. The price of European ethylene market rose sharply. As of the 19th, the price of European ethylene market was FD, northwest Europe closed at US $487-496 / ton, and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $442-450 / ton. The price of ethylene in the U.S. region is stable. As of the 19th, the price is US $229-247 / ton. Generally speaking, the market of ethylene in Europe and America is in an upward trend in the near future, especially in Europe. The trading atmosphere of the whole ethylene market is active and the market continues to rise. The industry pays more attention to the supply and demand after the festival.

 

Industry chain: International: on May 18, WTI crude oil futures market price in the United States rose, and the settlement price of main contracts was 31.65 yuan / barrel, up 2.13 US dollars or 7.2%. Brent crude oil futures market price rose, the settlement price of main contract was 34.81 US dollars / barrel, up 2.31 US dollars or 7.1%. The crude oil market rose, which supported the cost of ethylene. The price of ethylene continued to rise. The demand of the whole industry in Europe increased. The price of ethylene rose accordingly. The price of styrene in the downstream temporarily remained stable, and the price of ethanol continued to stay high. The price of ethylene continued to rise all the way.

 

3、 Future forecast:

 

According to the ethylene analyst of business Chemical Branch, the global oil supply has decreased recently, the demand has recovered, and the oil price has been rising for three days, forming a cost support for ethylene. Therefore, the data analyst of business news expects that the ethylene price will be mainly consolidated and upward next.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the market of plasticizer DOP rebounded in May and the price of DOP rebounded in May. As of May 18, the price of DOP in East China was 6766.67 yuan / ton, up 7.98% from 6266.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and down 11.40% from the same period last year.

 

2、 Industrial chain Market

 

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It can be seen from the trend chart of DOP raw materials that the prices of phthalic anhydride and octanol of DOP raw materials rose in May. In May, the domestic economy continued to recover, the demand for phthalic anhydride and octanol rose, and the price of DOP raw materials gradually recovered. In general, the cost of DOP rose in May, and the downward pressure of DOP still had a strong momentum to rise, and the DOP market was good.

 

In May, PVC market recovered in shock, and PVC price rose in shock. With the increase of domestic enterprises returning to work, the production of PVC enterprises is increasing, the procurement of plasticizers by PVC enterprises is increasing, the demand for DOP is picking up, and the DOP market is gradually picking up, but the overall positive increase is still negative.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of DOP of business agency, in May, the price of raw materials phthalic anhydride and octanol of DOP rose in shock, and the cost of DOP rose; in the downstream, PVC enterprises started to increase, and the demand for plasticizers increased, which was good for DOP market. After the May 1st movement, the logistics cost increased, which has a great driving force for DOP price increase. Generally speaking, DOP market is still under great downward pressure, and the future DOP market is stable.

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