On the third day of the year, there was not much good news in the fertilizer market. Potassium sulfate continued to cool down the previous year.

The quotation of enterprises is basically the same as that of the previous year. According to the introduction of relevant enterprises, the market turnover after the year is cold, and then depends on the specific situation of the market.

Potassium sulfate is in sufficient stock after one year, so the future market expectation is still not satisfactory. Business analysts believe that the potassium sulfate Market will not fluctuate significantly in the short term, and the market will continue to be stable.

Price Trend

The propane market continued to fall in January. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of propane was 4500 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 4087.5 yuan/ton. The price dropped by 9.17% in the month and 16.07% compared with the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Propane prices have fallen continuously this month, with a large margin, and the market climate has weakened. As of January 31, propane from Dongming Petrochemical Company and Zhonghai Fine Chemical Company of Shandong Province were not quoted for the time being. The ex-factory price of propane in Tianjin Bohai Chemical Industry Group is 4200 yuan/ton, that in Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group is 4150 yuan/ton, that in Shandong Huifeng Petrochemical Company is 4100 yuan/ton, that in Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Company is 4150 yuan/ton, and that in Shandong Binzhou Dayou Group is 4100 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: In January, the price of domestic liquefied gas market rose first and then fell. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic liquefied gas market was 3900 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month it was 3900 yuan/ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the month. The price was 12.85% lower than that of the same period last year. Domestic propylene (East China) prices fluctuated and fell in January. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic enterprises was 8010 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of domestic enterprises was 7880 yuan/ton. In the month, the price fell by 1.62%, which was 5.56% lower than that of the same period last year. In February, Saudi Arabia Americans CP: Propane 440 US dollars/ton, up 10% from last month. Butane is $470 per ton, up 50% from last month. Spot conversion cost is 3522 yuan/ton for propane and 3745 yuan/ton for butane.

The propane market did not perform well in January and prices continued to fall. In the first half of the month, the price of the main refinery dropped sharply, affecting the mindset of the operators. The downstream bearish market atmosphere is strong, the enthusiasm for entering the market is not high, and more on-demand replenishment is needed. The manufacturers’shipments continue to be poor, and inventory is gradually depressed. In the second half of the month, the liquefied petroleum gas market continued to fall, the short market and the price continued to fall. However, with the Spring Festival approaching, the demand for downstream stocks, the market turnover improved, the inventory situation of manufacturers improved, and the introduction of a small increase in CP in February, the price stabilized.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in January 2019, there were 27 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 14 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 19.7% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were sulfuric acid (26.53%), phosphate ore (19.12%) and n-butanol (industrial grade) (14.52%). There are 41 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 21.1% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are TDI (-23.96%), ethylene oxide (-19.35%) and acetic acid (-9.91%). This month’s average rise and fall was -0.13%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propane analysts of business associations believe that the introduction of CPs in February, a slight rise, good market mentality. However, when the downstream replenishment is over and inventory is depleted one after another, and the Spring Festival holidays are approaching, manufacturers are facing more holidays. It is expected that the future market will be stable.

Price Trend

The domestic butadiene market has been on the sidelines recently. As of January 29, the price of butadiene was 10,223 yuan per ton, according to business association monitoring.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: The domestic butadiene market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, the price of butadiene from northern manufacturers has fallen, dragging down the market, the industry’s initiative to offer is limited, downstream work has been shut down for holidays, the market demand is weak, weak turnover, it is expected that the short-term domestic butadiene market will continue to be weak, pay attention to market turnover. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the butadiene market in Shandong, and there is no supply pressure on the site for the time being, but downstream traders are more cautious about receiving goods. Eastern China butadiene market atmosphere is general, lack of information guidance, downstream inquiries are limited, and market offers are maintained. Asian closing price of butadiene, FOB Korea average offer of $1125-1133 per ton; CFR China average offer of $1145-1153 per ton.

Industry Chain: Styrene-butadiene rubber: Domestic market of Styrene-butadiene rubber shows a stable trend, business offer is not much, sporadic business offer is stable, inquiry atmosphere is weak, lack of real trading. Cis-butadiene rubber: The domestic cis-butadiene rubber market is stable. On-site vendors offer little, market inquiries are scarce, and spot turnover is limited. SBS: Domestic SBS market oil glue low finishing, dry rubber road smooth operation. In the short term, the oil-rubber and dry-rubber pipelines will maintain smooth operation.

3. Future Market Forecast

On the positive side, the external price is firm; the supply side of butadiene is tight; on the negative side, the downstream synthetic rubber market is insufficient to follow up. Business Association butadiene analysts predict that the domestic butadiene market or the stock market may decline, focusing on market turnover.

Price Trend
According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic acetic acid market rose slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of acetic acid in eastern China was around 3100 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it rose to about 3166 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.15%. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2850/ton; in Shandong is about 3050-3250 yuan/ton; in Hebei is about 3150 yuan/ton; in Shaanxi is about 2600 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu is about 3050-3150 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang is about 3250-3300 yuan/ton; in South China, the quotation is about 3200-3300 yuan/ton, which is 33.33% lower than that in the same period last year.

II. Cause Analysis

Product: This week, due to tight supply and low inventory, combined with pre-holiday stock and other factors, the on-site quotation continued to rise, but the on-site negotiations were flat, and many small orders were concluded. In terms of start-up, the 400,000 tons/year plant in Longyu, Henan Province has been shut down for a short time, and the 400,000 tons/year plant in Yangtze, Nanjing, has been overhauled since the beginning of the month. The overall start-up rate is about 85%. Due to the restriction of pre-festival logistics transportation, downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing.

Industry chain: Upstream, affected by factors such as weakening demand side, depot drainage in production area and accumulation in port reservoir area, methanol market is weaker and tidy. At present, the price of methanol is 2214 yuan/ton, up 0.18% in a week, down 28.2% compared with the same period last year. This week, acetate industry in downstream acetic acid is affected by the rising price of acetic acid, up slightly as a whole, but the trade is still relatively light and traders are cautious in buying. Be cautious and wait-and-see attitude. PTA spot market is affected by enterprise overhaul and futures upstream, and prices are gradually rising.

International: This week, the acetic acid Market in North America was affected by demand, slightly weakened in the week, now 625 U.S. dollars/ton; Asian acetic acid market was affected by the Chinese market, slightly warmed in the week, currently quoted 380-440 U.S. dollars/ton; European acetic acid market fell sharply in the week, at around 725 euros/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

At present, domestic acetic acid enterprises have low inventory and normal start-up of production. However, due to the approaching Spring Festival, the market gradually enters the shutdown period, and the intentions of reserve before the Festival are strong, but the actual turnover is flat.

Acetic acid analysts from business associations predict that the acetic acid market will be mainly stable in the near future.

Pavlodar, International Telegraph Agency, Jan. 23, Hapavlodar Electrolytic Aluminum Plant announced that in 2018, the company exported 240,000 tons of raw aluminium, an increase of 7.1% over the previous year, and planned to export 223,000 tons in 2019. At present, Kazakhstan’s main exporters include Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Poland, Turkey, Italy, Bulgaria, Croatia and Slovenia. In 2018, the company produced 258,400 tons of raw aluminium.

The Rotterdam phenol market closed stable on January 23, with CIF prices ranging from $1059.5 to $1064.5 per ton.

On January 21, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 114.56, down 0.38 points from yesterday, down 18.42% from the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and up 113.77% from the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market has been lower recently. The price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is 12625 yuan/ton as of 22 days, and the starting rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid is about 60%. Enterprises reflect that the supply of hydrofluoric acid on the spot is sufficient, the situation of goods on the spot has been worse recently, some enterprises have increased their hydrofluoric acid inventory, and the ex-factory price has been slightly lowered, but due to the high expenditure of raw material market. The market price of hydrofluoric acid has fallen by a very limited margin. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 12,000-12,500 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 12,000-13,000 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market price trend is slightly lower, spot supply is sufficient, due to the recent high prices of raw materials market, fluorite prices are in a high state, but the price of raw materials fluorite slightly declined, the market price of hydrofluoric acid slightly lower.

Recent downstream refrigerant product maintenance devices are more, the demand for upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid has weakened, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market has declined, and the price of hydrofluoric acid products has slightly decreased. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 70%, R22 refrigerant facility start-up rate declines, the main production enterprise bulk water out-of-factory offer price drops to 17500-18500 yuan/ton, but the production enterprise does not have bulk water spot, mainly with a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has declined, and the shipment market trend is poor. The domestic market price of R134a is slightly lower, the start-up rate of production enterprises is lower, the market demand for refrigerants is weakened, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much, and the merchants purchase on demand. Recently, due to the impact of equipment maintenance, the upstream market demand for hydrofluoric acid has weakened.

Refrigerant on-site transaction prices slightly lower, refrigerant industry equipment overhaul increased, the upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand weakened, coupled with the upstream refrigerant industry to resist high prices of raw materials, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may continue to decline, hydrofluoric acid prices will be around 12,500 yuan/ton.

According to data released Monday by the International Aluminum Industry Association (IAI), global raw aluminium production increased by 73,000 tons to 2.208 million tons in December, 17,000 tons less than in December 2017.

China’s primary aluminium production in December is expected to be 3.143 million tons, higher than the revised 30.42 million tons in November.

Price Trend

According to the business community urea price monitoring, this week the domestic urea market quotation slightly rebounded, the market purchases on demand. At the beginning of the week, the mainstream ex-factory quotation in the domestic urea market was 1900 yuan/ton. At the weekend, the mainstream ex-factory quotation in the domestic urea market rose to 1907 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.39%.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the domestic urea market prices rose slightly, and the plant was partly overhauled. At present, the mainstream of Shandong has begun to rise slightly, with some manufacturers quoting 1870-1920 yuan/ton and Anhui manufacturers quoting 1920-1940 yuan/ton. The overall trading atmosphere of the market has been reduced. Recently, the domestic environment protection inspection atmosphere has eased, coal shortage after heating, many urea enterprises are limited by gas, high price gas and so on, which results in high cost pressure. Some enterprises are forced to limit or stop production, which also results in the decline of start-up and poor performance in demand. The overall industry start-up rate of domestic compound fertilizer enterprises remains low, and the price of raw material urea is unstable. In some enterprises, production reduction or overhaul remains unchanged, and the equipment load is still acceptable.

Market demand: At present, the domestic industrial urea market demand is low. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, it is expected that the downstream industrial factories will further decline in the start-up rate. Most plywood factories will stop for vacation around the Spring Festival. As for agricultural demand, with urea prices declining and the approaching of the Spring Festival, distributors begin to purchase in appropriate quantities. It is expected that the domestic urea market will remain stable in the short term, with partial fine-tuning.

Industry chain: Anthracite market supply in the upstream is still tight, coal prices are still rising in recent days, the supply of urea raw materials and natural gas is tight, the price of liquid ammonia market has slightly declined, and urea cost support is strong. Compound fertilizer started at a low level, and raw materials trading was limited.

3. Future Market Forecast

In the short term, there is no fluctuation in the quotation and market turnover of enterprises, and the actual transaction is slightly cool. With the gradual reduction of business orders and increasing pressure, it is reported that last week the low price again exploded, but distributors are not in a hurry to get the goods, and have a strong wait-and-see mood. According to market understanding, the Indian bidding price is not optimistic, exporters are mostly operating for pre-order, this tender is not prepared, may be later to find the source of goods, but in the early part of the low-price transaction, and the number of bidding, because the price is low, the expected volume will not be too much. Domestic demand is still weak. If the support of labeling is limited, and the pressure of enterprises to take orders before the Spring Festival, the urea market is expected to rise slightly next week.

NEW YORK, Jan. 15 (Reuters) – The U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) said in its first 2020 forecast that daily crude oil production from the United States is expected to rise to a new record of more than 12 million barrels this year and to nearly 13 million barrels next year.

U.S. crude oil production is expected to climb 1.14 million barrels to 12.07 million barrels a day in 2019 and increase by 790,000 barrels to 12.86 million barrels by 2020, the Department of Energy Statistics said in a monthly report.

Driven by shale production, the United States has become the world’s largest producer of crude oil, producing nearly 11 million barrels a day in 2018, breaking the annual record set in 1970.

“The steady growth of crude oil production in non-OPEC countries, including the United States, has become the top predictor of global crude oil production,” EIA Administrator Linda Capuano said in a commentary after the forecast. We expect the United States to remain the world’s largest producer of crude oil.

The forecast shows that the United States will become a net exporter of crude oil by the end of 2020.

EIA said daily demand for diesel and other distillate fuels in the United States is expected to increase by 20,000 barrels this year to 4.15 million barrels, and by 2020 to 4.19 million barrels.

Gasoline demand in the United States is expected to reach 9.29 million barrels a day this year, down from the 9.31 million barrels previously predicted. EIA said daily demand for light oil in the United States will rise to 9.35 million barrels this year and remain at that level by 2020.