1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business society, the average price of domestic hips on October 18 was 12900.00 yuan / ton, up 166.67 yuan / ton compared with 12733.33 at the beginning of the week, up 1.31% during the week and 4.31% compared with the beginning of the month

2、 Market analysis

After the National Day holiday, the hiips market continued to rise. The increase last week was not large, while the increase in the benzene market was more obvious. The main raw materials for this round of price rise are due to the first rise and then fall of styrene market price and narrow range shock. In addition, the market supply is slightly tightened, and the cargo holders increase their offer in line with the trend. At the beginning of the week, hips held steady after rising, but the driving force for continuous rise is insufficient. There are signs of decline at the weekend. The industry has a strong wait-and-see mood, and the actual trading is tepid. Up to now, the mainstream price of hips is mostly about 12500-15000 yuan / ton, and the price of benzene is mostly 11600-12000 yuan / ton. The overall market of PS is rising steadily.

In the international crude oil market, on October 15, the international oil price rose. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $82.28/barrel, an increase of US $0.97 or 1.19%, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was US $84.86/barrel, an increase of US $0.86 or 1.02%. Boosted by the expectation of market supply shortage, the relaxation of epidemic related restrictions stimulated demand growth, and the oil price continued to rise moderately.

In terms of raw materials, the market price of styrene first rose and then fell this week. At present, it fluctuates in a narrow range. On October 8, the quotation of styrene in Shandong was around 9400-9450 yuan / ton, and on October 14, it was around 9800-10200 yuan / ton, up 400-650 yuan / ton. During the week, the price of styrene continued to rise, driven by the continuous rise of crude oil, the general rise of bulk commodities and the rise of pure benzene, which slightly repaired the profit of styrene production.

3、 Future forecast

The business society believes that the current price of raw material styrene fluctuates, the industry has a strong wait-and-see mood, and the trading atmosphere is tepid. Hips is expected to adjust narrowly with the price trend of raw materials in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 9583.33 yuan / ton on October 10 and 9983.33 yuan / ton on October 15, with an increase of 4.17% during the week and 21.01% compared with September 1.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) in East China was 13450.00 yuan / ton on October 10 and 13662.50 yuan / ton on October 15, with an increase of 1.58% during the week and 20.51% compared with September 1.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 9866.67 yuan / ton on October 10 and 9866.67 yuan / ton on October 15. The price was flat during the period, up 12.76% compared with September 1.

This week, the overall focus of the domestic polyethylene spot market shifted upward. During the week, LDPE and HDPE in East China continued to rise in the early part of the week and fell at the weekend. LLDPE showed a shock upward trend. The prices of the three PE spot varieties mainly increased, with a fluctuation range of 150-1500 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of petrochemical enterprises rose first and then fell this week. It was mainly raised in the early part of the week. The price fell at the weekend, and the cost support was general. Liansu futures fell more than rose in the week, bringing some bad news to the spot market. The terminal currently needs to enter the market, and the overall transaction atmosphere of the market is not good. Business offers follow the market, follow the increase at the beginning of the week, the quotation is loose at the weekend, and the firm price focuses on a single discussion.

Liansu futures fell as a whole this week, bringing some bad news to the spot market. On October 15, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2201 was 9555, the highest price was 9685, the lowest price was 9370, the closing price was 9600, the former settlement price was 9520, the settlement price was 9485, up 80, or 0.84%, the trading volume was 588538, the position was 310945, and the daily position was increased by – 505. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, the atmosphere of adult trading in the market is poor, and the overall trend of the three PE spot varieties is in the doldrums. On the 15th, the ex factory prices of most petrochemical enterprises remained stable, and some regions still fell. The downstream mentality is cautious and multidimensional holds to replenish on demand. Merchants’ quotations follow the market, and the firm offer focuses on a single discussion. In the future, the polyethylene market lacks obvious benefits, and it is expected that the PE spot market may still decline in the short term.

Zinc prices soared after the festival

According to the data monitoring of business society, the zinc price continued to rise after the festival, and the zinc price soared on the 14th. As of October 14, the zinc price was 25086.00 yuan / ton, up 5.25% from 23835 yuan / ton on the previous trading day; Compared with the zinc price of 22686 yuan / ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month, an increase of 10.58%. The power shortage increased the market’s concern about the commencement of zinc smelters, stimulated the rise of zinc price, and the domestic spot zinc price went straight to the highest price in 17 years.

LME zinc price hit a record high

According to the trend chart of LME zinc price, LME zinc price opened at US $3421.00/t on October 14 and closed at US $3503.60/t, an increase of 2.41%; The highest price is US $3637.50/ton, up 6.33% from the opening price and about 30% from the beginning of this year. Today’s zinc price is a new high since 2007.

Strong trading limit of Shanghai zinc

According to the trend chart of zinc price in Shanghai futures market, on October 14, the main contract of Shanghai zinc touched the daily limit, up 7.98%, and now it is reported as 25700 yuan / ton, a new high since March 2018.

Power rationing in zinc City

In late September, Guangdong, Shandong, Qinghai, Ningxia, Yunnan, Guangxi, Hunan, Anhui, Sichuan, Henan, Chongqing, Inner Mongolia and other places successively issued power rationing or staggered peak power consumption notices. Most provinces in China have encountered power rationing. Zinc smelting, as one of the main power consuming industries, has a great impact on the zinc smelting industry and the output of zinc smelting has decreased. In October, Guangxi, Yunnan and Hunan provinces with severe power rationing in September did not ease. After the dry season in Yunnan, the output of some smelters was expected to be lowered, and the power rationing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased. Some enterprises were notified to start four-day off and three-day off, and the output of zinc City decreased.

Electricity bills soar in Europe

According to the data of European Intercontinental Exchange, compared with the price of about 6 euros in the middle of last year, the price of natural gas has soared more than 10 times recently, reaching an all-time high. As energy prices soared, electricity prices in Europe also soared. At present, the electricity price per megawatt hour in the UK has risen to 285 pounds, an increase of 700% over the same period, the highest since 1999. Electricity prices in Spain have tripled since December and in Germany have risen by 50%. The European power crisis has further affected relevant industries. As a high power consumption industry, zinc smelting is bound to reduce its production capacity due to the soaring electricity price.

Reduction of zinc production by 50% in three European smelters

According to foreign news on October 13, nyrstar said that with the significant increase in power costs and carbon emission related costs, it is no longer economically feasible to operate the plant at full capacity. It will cut zinc production at its three European smelters by 50% from Wednesday to cope with soaring electricity costs. Nyrstar belongs to Trafigura group and is one of the largest zinc metal producers in the world. It is understood that the total output of its three smelters is 700000 tons, accounting for more than 5% of the world. A 50% reduction in production is equivalent to affecting the global zinc production by 2.5%. The news of sharply reducing the output of zinc smelters was too stimulating, and the supply expectation of zinc market fell sharply, stimulating the sharp rise of zinc price.

India’s power crisis intensifies and zinc supply is expected to shrink

Due to the shortage of coal supply, India has become the latest country facing a serious power crisis. According to the data of India’s power sector, as of the beginning of October, the average coal inventory of 135 thermal power plants in India was only 4 days, lower than the 13 days in early August. In the factories monitored every day, more than half of the inventory is less than three days. The zinc smelting capacity in India accounts for 5% of the global zinc smelting capacity. The power crisis in India is bound to affect the large power consumer of zinc smelting, and the expectation of zinc supply reduction in the zinc market is intensified.

The fourth national dumping

According to Announcement No. 2 of 2021 of the State Food and material reserve bureau, it is decided to put the fourth batch of national reserve zinc in 2021 on October 9, with a total sales volume of 50000 tons. The fourth batch of reserve zinc was put into the market, which alleviated the short-term supply of zinc market and increased the short-term supply of zinc market.

Market Overview

Analysts of business society believe that: affected by the soaring global energy prices, power shortages have occurred all over the world and power rationing has continued all over the world. As a large power consumer, the risk of production restriction and shutdown of zinc smelting has intensified. The soaring electricity price in Europe has led to a surge in the cost of zinc smelting enterprises, and the production of European zinc smelting enterprises has been reduced by 50%, which has further exacerbated the market’s concern about the reduction of output of zinc smelting enterprises, and the driving force for the rise of zinc market has increased, The short-term zinc market is still strong. In the medium and long term, global inflation makes the downstream start-up expectation drop, the demand expectation of zinc market drops, the medium and long-term rise support of zinc market is insufficient, and the state has repeatedly thrown reserves to stabilize the zinc market, and the space for zinc price surge is limited. It is expected that the short-term zinc price will rise strongly, and the medium and long-term zinc price will rise slightly.

On October 13, the domestic cobalt price fell

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the domestic cobalt price fell on October 13. After the sharp rise of cobalt price for three consecutive trading days after the festival, the cobalt price fell on October 13. On October 13, the cobalt price was 394200 yuan / ton, down 1.00% from the cobalt price of 398200 yuan / ton on October 12 of the previous trading day; Compared with the price of 381600 yuan / ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month, the price of cobalt increased by 3.30%. Cobalt prices broke the 400000 mark and were blocked.

The rise of international cobalt price slowed down

According to the trend chart of LME cobalt price, the cobalt price in LME market was stable in October, the high level of international cobalt price was stable in October, the high level support of domestic cobalt market still existed, and the rising power of cobalt price was insufficient.

As can be seen from the trend chart of MB cobalt price, during the national day, the cobalt price in the international market continued to rise. In October, the international cobalt price rose for seven consecutive trading days, and the international cobalt price rose continuously, stimulating the rise of domestic cobalt price; After October 8, the rising trend of MB cobalt price slowed down, the cobalt price was stable on October 11 and 12, the rising trend of international cobalt price was no longer, the rising support of domestic cobalt market was insufficient, and the domestic cobalt price fell slightly.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst of business society, believes that affected by the continuous rise of international cobalt prices, the domestic cobalt market rose after the festival, and once the domestic cobalt price wanted to break the 400000 yuan mark. However, with the stability of international cobalt prices, the rise of domestic cobalt market lost support, the cobalt price fell slightly, and the cobalt price broke the 40 mark was blocked. In the long run, the demand of new energy vehicle industry is increasing vigorously, the demand of cobalt market is still growing, and the rising power of cobalt market still exists. It is expected that the long-term fluctuation and rise of cobalt price in the future will be dominated by the stability of cobalt price in the short term.

Trade name: epichlorohydrin

Latest price (October 12): 21000 yuan / ton

On October 12, the market price of epichlorohydrin was mainly stable, up 0.32% compared with the previous trading day, 32.35% compared with the price on September 12, and 49.29% year-on-year in a three-month cycle. At present, the price of raw material propylene is high, the price of glycerol is running at a high price, and the cost support is relatively strong. Affected by the news of the planned restart of the plant of a large plant in East China, the purchase mentality of the industry is cautious, the inquiry atmosphere is weakened, and the market atmosphere is general.

It is expected that in the short term, the epichlorohydrin market may be dominated by stalemate.

Fluctuation trend:

Analysis and comments:

In terms of crude oil, near winter, the demand for fuel is increasing, superimposed with the shortage of natural gas supply, the supply expectation of crude oil market is tight, and the international oil price is high.

Crude oil and external market rose, giving positive support to the mixed xylene market; The prices of related aromatic products continued to rise, the downstream terminal gasoline followed the rise of crude oil, and the price of Sinopec continued to rise, resulting in a strong rise in the mixed xylene market.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of October 9, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 22600 yuan / ton. Compared with October 1 (the reference price of propylene glycol was 21100 yuan / ton), the average price was increased by 1500 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.11%; Compared with September 1 (propylene glycol reference price 17066 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 5533 yuan / ton, an increase of 32.42%.

In September, the domestic propylene glycol market rose sharply. In October, during the National Day holiday, the propylene glycol market performed at a high level and operated stably. On the first day after the holiday, the domestic propylene glycol market opened and rose sharply on the 8th, resulting in tight on-site supply and basically no pressure on inventory. At present, the price of propylene glycol has reached a new high in recent years. Downstream users are more cautious in taking goods and have a strong wait-and-see mood for high prices. However, due to varying degrees of shutdown plans for propylene glycol units in Shandong and Anhui from early October to mid November, the market supply will continue to be tight in the short term. Therefore, although there is no large-scale demand after the festival, the factory has a strong willingness to support prices, Market prices rose broadly. On the 9th, the ex factory price of propylene glycol in Shandong rose to around 22300-23000 yuan / ton, up 1000-1500 yuan / ton compared with the price before the festival. At present, the average price of propylene glycol in China is 22600 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.11% after the national day.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, during the National Day holiday, the domestic propylene oxide market fell broadly. On the first day after the festival, the propylene oxide market continued to fall. On the 9th, the market price stopped falling and rebounded slightly. At present, the downstream terminals have followed better, and the atmosphere in the venue has warmed up. As of October 9, The average price of propylene oxide production in Shandong is 16666 yuan / ton. Compared with October 1 (17333 yuan / ton), the average price is reduced by 667 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.85%.

Future trend analysis

Affected by the shutdown and overhaul of propylene glycol unit in October, the supply in propylene glycol plant will continue to be at a low level. Under the condition of small sales pressure, propylene glycol analysts of business society believe that the supply side can still support the domestic propylene glycol market in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (October 8): 20000 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of the business society, on October 8, the phosphoric acid market was generally stable, some were slightly reduced, and the quotation was mostly adjusted according to their own inventory status. On the first day after the festival, there were not many market quotation enterprises, but the raw material yellow phosphorus was temporarily stable, many closed offers were not reported, and there was a certain replenishment demand in the downstream, so the supporting phosphoric acid price was still high.

It is expected that the market price of phosphoric acid may be expected to callback.

In September, affected by the dual control policy of energy consumption, the domestic supply of chloroform was tight and the market price rose sharply. In the middle of the month, the market speculation mentality was strong, and the market price of chloroform rose sharply to around 5000 yuan / ton. Later, with the follow-up of downstream demand and the end of the market speculation mentality, the market price of chloroform gradually returned to around 4100 ~ 4300 yuan / ton. Overall, due to tight supply, the price at the end of the month still increased by about 1000 yuan / ton compared with the end of the month.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of chloroform in Shandong was 3150 yuan / ton at the beginning of September and 4187 yuan / ton at the end of September, an increase of 32.94% compared with the beginning of the month.

The price of raw methanol rose and the cost side was supported. According to the business agency, as of September 30, the price of methanol was 3605 yuan / ton, up 37.86% from 2615 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; The mainstream ex factory price of liquid chlorine of tank car in Shandong is about 1600 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: the chloroform analyst of business society believes that the “double control” policy will continue to be implemented in the short term, the start-up of methane chloride plant will remain low, and the supply of chloroform will remain relatively tight. However, affected by weak demand, the profit giving sales price of enterprises will return to some extent; Overall, the price of chloroform will remain around 4000 yuan / ton in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, pure benzene showed a volatile upward trend in the first half of September, rising from 7590 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (September 1) to the highest price of 8480 yuan / ton on September 16; In the second half of the month, the shock fell to 7760 yuan / ton on September 26, and rebounded slightly to 7880 yuan / ton at the end of the month. On September 1, the price of pure benzene was 7500-7700 yuan / ton (average price 7590 yuan / ton), and on September 30, the price was 7650-8200 yuan / ton (average price 7880 yuan / ton), an increase of 3.82% this month, an increase of 133.14% over the same period last year, and the difference between the highest and lowest price in the month was 1100 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and review

The first half of September: affected by the public health incident, the arrival cargo of East China port was delayed, the deliverable pure benzene was insufficient, the port inventory decreased sharply, the spot supply in East China was tight, and the market speculation was strong. Pure benzene drives styrene, and styrene boosts pure benzene. In the first half of the month, pure benzene and styrene rose together.

The second half of the month: under the “double control” policy, some provinces and cities issued a notice on strengthening the management of “two high” projects, strengthening the management of high energy consumption and high emission projects, and strictly controlling the approval of new “two high” projects. In case of “dual control” policy in the downstream, the downstream styrene and aniline production capacity in Jiangsu Province has suffered serious losses; In addition, the downstream follow-up to the continuous rise of pure benzene is weakened, the demand for pure benzene has fallen sharply, the market mentality has dropped, and the shipment and inventory are arranged at a reduced price.

The price of Sinopec’s pure benzene has been adjusted frequently this month. In the first half of the month, it has been increased for seven consecutive times, with a total increase of 1050-1200 yuan / ton, up to 8600-8700 yuan / ton in the month; In the second half of the month, it was lowered for four consecutive times, reaching 7650-7700 yuan / ton at the end of the month.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil fluctuated higher in September and prices rose broadly. U.S. crude oil inventories have declined continuously, the recovery of oil and gas production in the U.S. Gulf affected by the hurricane is slow, and the epidemic has eased, the market is worried that crude oil supply may be tight. As of September 29, Brent rose $5.65 / barrel, or 7.74%; WTI rose US $6.33/barrel, or 9.24%.

In terms of external market, as of September 29, the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was US $951 / ton, down US $16 / ton or 1.65% from August 31; The reference price of pure benzene imported from East China was US $987.5/t, down US $7.5/t or 0.75% from August 31.

Downstream, styrene: styrene fluctuated up and down this month, which was basically consistent with the trend of pure benzene. On September 1, the production price in Shandong was 8787.5 yuan / ton, and on September 30, the price was 9170 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 4.35%, an increase of 68.62% over the same period last year.

Aniline: the price of aniline rebounded after falling this month, and then fell again. On September 1, the price in Shandong was 10700-10900 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 11100-11200 yuan / ton; On September 30, the price in Shandong was 11100-11320 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 11300-11500 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.76% over the beginning of the month and 110.69% over the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of raw materials, the tight supply of crude oil is expected to remain unchanged, the global epidemic has eased, and the demand is expected to be better in the fourth quarter. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of crude oil and refined oil in the United States, and the global economic situation on crude oil prices.

Trends of pure benzene plant in October: Kenli petrochemical plant is expected to restart in mid October. CNOOC shell plans to overhaul in October and Guangzhou Petrochemical plans to shut down for overhaul in October 11. Downstream shutdown devices have been restarted one after another, and the demand for pure benzene has rebounded, which may be a good support for the price. Continue to pay attention to the dynamic market of downstream, the dynamics of domestic pure benzene units, and the impact of the trend of crude oil and external disk on the price of pure benzene.