Aluminum market trend
According to the data of business agency, as of May 29, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots was 13476.67 yuan / ton, up 5.18% compared with the average market price of 12813.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (May 1), and up 16.92% compared with the average market price of 11526.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of April (April 1).
Aluminum price in May led the basic metal plate
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in May 2020, there are 17 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the nonferrous sector, including 5 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 22.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities rising are silver (15.57%), dysprosium oxide (8.68%) and dysprosium ferroalloy (7.04%). Among the basic metal plates, aluminum ranked first in terms of growth, followed by aluminum (5.18%), tin (3.20%), lead (2.91%), copper (2.63%), zinc (0.26%), and nickel (0.43%).
Aluminum price in May led the basic metal plate. On the one hand, aluminum price fell deeply in the early panic decline process of non-ferrous plate, ranking second in the basic metal plate, second only to copper. The vacancy hit by the fall is deep, and there is a large space for retaliatory rebound. The increase in April is relatively low, and the aluminum price rebounded rapidly in May. As of May 29, the relative range of aluminum price rebound ranked third in the basic metal plate, lagging behind tin and lead.
According to the data of the business association, the deepest decline order of the year beginning (January 1) is copper (- 24.93%), aluminum (- 22.79%), zinc (- 20.36%), nickel (- 18.66%), tin (- 15.09%) and lead (- 13.09%). As of May 29, the order of the closest benchmark price is Sn (- 1.80%), Pb (- 4.67%), Al (- 7.40%), Zn (- 9.09%), Cu (- 9.60%) and Ni (- 11.40%).
The price recovery of non-ferrous plate reflects the gradual recovery of manufacturing economy with the full expansion of domestic resumption of production from April to May. According to BCI data, in May 2020, BCI was 0.37, with an average increase of 4.45%. The increase of BCI shows that the manufacturing economy is expanding compared with last month.
The domestic supply and demand data of electrolytic aluminum also confirmed the above views.
***Production is obvious without subtracting inventory***
In April 2020, China’s electrolytic aluminum production reached 2.958 million tons, an increase of 2.4% year on year. From January to April, the cumulative production of electrolytic aluminum in China was 11.934 million tons, up 3.6% year on year. According to relevant data, the domestic aluminum consumption in April was 3.3-3.35 million tons, an increase of about 580000 tons compared with March.
In the middle and late May, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory (including SHFE warehouse receipt) was below 1 million tons for the first time. On May 22, the total inventory of aluminum ingots for consumption in domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory (including SHFE warehouse receipt) was 964000 tons, a decrease of 472000 tons on a month on month basis. In May, under the background of increasing supply, domestic aluminum ingot inventory realized continuous high-speed de stocking, mainly based on the demand exceeding expectations and the increase of aluminum water supply.
Among them, the terminal product demand industry exceeded the expected performance, driving the industry chain to better expectations. For example, in the automobile industry, the automobile output in April was 2.012 million, up 2.26% year on year. In April, the automobile sales volume was 2.069 million, up 4.41% year on year, continuing the recovery momentum in March. In April, the real estate development prosperity index was 98.86, 0.67 points higher than that in March.
Note: orders for building profiles are concentrated in the fields of doors and windows, curtain walls and formworks, and the expected demand for old transformation and new infrastructure construction is strengthening. The demand for instant noodles for automobile, household appliances and mechanical equipment continues to recover.
Can aluminum price fill the “epidemic pit” in June
At present, in the futures market, the recent contract price is higher than the forward contract, and the futures market is expected to be short, mainly based on the consideration of import and export factors.
***Poor overseas demand, export pressure***
Under the influence of the overseas epidemic, China’s export orders have a greater impact. China exported 441177.1 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in April, according to the General Administration of customs. In the first four months of 2020, the total export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 1628923.2 tons, down 15.9% from 1936337.8 tons in the same period of last year.
In April 2020, 72000 tons of waste aluminum will be imported, a year-on-year decrease of 53.3% and a month on month decrease of 6.7%. From January to April, 270000 tons of waste aluminum were imported, a year-on-year decrease of 64.7%.
***Strong uncertainty of production capacity after profit recovery***
Rough weighted estimation shows that 1.93 tons of alumina, 0.48 tons of anode carbon block, 0.02 tons of aluminum fluoride, 0.01 tons of cryolite and 13500 degrees of electric power are consumed per ton of aluminum, and the weighted cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum production is about 11800-12000 yuan / ton. The profit of aluminum plant will gradually go out from the market of pit bottom explosion loss, and the subsequent domestic production capacity may be released. (the new capacity in 2020 is estimated by quarter, as follows)
***Export pressure of internal and external aluminum price differentiation increases***
With the recovery of domestic aluminum price, foreign aluminum price is suppressed by the epidemic situation, and the market lags behind obviously. At present, the profit window of aluminum ingot import is gradually opened. As of June 1, the price of lemd is around 11000 yuan / ton, and the main price of Shanghai aluminum is around 13100 yuan / ton.
The supply and demand fundamentals of the domestic market have improved effectively, social inventory has continued to move down, domestic demand is expected to turn warm in the second quarter, and the price has risen significantly. The supply and demand of foreign market is relatively weak, and the price difference between domestic and foreign market is large, which is bad for export.
Based on domestic demand, aluminum price in June may enter a period of shock
The current price trend is: spot price of domestic aluminum ingots > recent contract price of Shanghai aluminum > forward contract price of Shanghai aluminum within the year > contract price of lunwai aluminum.
From April to may, the price of aluminum rose, and the influence factor of spot was large. It can also be confirmed from the domestic aluminum production in April:
Monthly production of aluminum in each region in March and April (unit: 10000 tons)
Domestic terminal consumption has recovered, and the inventory of aluminum ingots has continued to move down. At present, the consumption of downstream consumer profiles and aluminum foil plates is better, while the consumption of aluminum strip and recycled aluminum and aluminum cable tends to be weaker, taking into account 7 and 8 The month is the traditional off-season of aluminum consumption (although in the historical price trend, the off-season has no obvious impact on the price). In the environment of difficult export and based on domestic demand, ye Jianjun, an analyst of the business club, predicted that the aluminum price in June was weak. With the gradual convergence of the overseas market, the probability of a sharp jump in domestic aluminum price was not large, and it is expected to run in a volatile way within the 12800-13800 yuan / ton range Lord.