The international crude oil market continues to be favorable, the domestic refined oil price adjustment “seven consecutive rises” have been implemented, the actual domestic gasoline demand during the Spring Festival holiday is far better than expected, the terminal replenishment demand is strong, and the crude oil and gasoline prices are rising. According to the data of business news agency, the price of MTBE on February 24 was 5166 yuan / ton, up 9.93% compared with that before the Spring Festival.

Recently, the price of international crude oil market continued to hit a high point in the year. As of press release, WTI oil price was at 62.5 US dollars / barrel. According to the monitoring of the business community, the prices of WTI and Brent crude oil have increased by more than 16% since February. The good news of the international crude oil market is spreading continuously, and the inventories of the United States and China are declining. In addition, OPEC + is still strictly implementing the production reduction agreement, and the effect of national oil production control is ideal, so it is necessary to increase the supply and lower the crude oil market price. At the same time, the cold wave in the United States limited the supply of shale oil and gas fields in the United States, and accidental factors helped to increase the price of crude oil. In terms of gasoline demand, the local new year was originally advocated, and the expectation of gasoline terminal demand was not good. However, the domestic epidemic control effect was very good, and the consumption situation in the terminal market was far better than expected. In addition, the international crude oil price rose sharply, and the “seven consecutive rises” of refined oil price adjustment was implemented. The market was bullish, and the demand for terminal replenishment increased. Gasoline prices are climbing.

At present, the international crude oil market is in a rising channel. After the Spring Festival, gasoline prices soared, MTBE market operators have a strong bullish mentality, and the demand for stock in stock is rising. In addition, since the Spring Festival, the overall inventory of MTBE manufacturers is in a low state, the pressure of refinery delivery is small, and the price of MTBE rises.

The MTBE product analyst of business society energy branch thinks: after the international crude oil price and gasoline price rise sharply, or maintain a high operating state, the price of MTBE and other intermediate materials will also rise to a high level. It is expected that the domestic MTBE market price will continue to rise to a high level in the short term, but the rise range is limited.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of bromine in Shandong was about 34277.78 yuan / ton on February 23, with a high price consolidation. On February 22, the bromine commodity index was 120.27, up 0.39 points from yesterday, down 2.20% from 122.98 points (February 18, 2019), the highest point in the cycle, and up 104.12% from 58.92 points, the lowest point on October 29, 2014. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

At present, the mainstream price of domestic bromine enterprises is about 34000-35000 yuan / ton. In the domestic bromine market, the negotiation atmosphere is general, the market production is expected to be limited, some enterprises’ shipping intention is not high, the intention of stock preparation is obvious, the downstream market demand turns weak, and there is a certain resistance to the high price of bromine. It is expected that the bromine market will consolidate in a high level in a short time.

Raw materials: on February 23, the domestic sulfur market rose broadly, with solid sulfur rising by 80-100 yuan / ton, and liquid sulfur in East China also rising by nearly 100 yuan / ton. At present, refineries in various regions of China are operating in low inventory, the supply of sulfur is tight, and the quotation of sulfur is rising. The export market of downstream phosphate fertilizer continues to improve. In addition, the domestic spring ploughing fertilizer is approaching, which is good for the sulfur market and the sulfur market in the future Market to maintain a high level of operation, attention to the downstream follow-up situation. The overall supply of caustic soda is sufficient, the overall ex factory price of caustic soda is stable and small, the cost side changes little, and the downstream purchase demand is general, which has a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda.

Business analysts believe that the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine are better than before the festival, but they are in conflict with the continuously high price of bromine, the trading atmosphere is general, the supply and demand sides are playing games, and it is expected that the price of bromine will be high in the short term.

Domestic BDO market continued to rise sharply. According to the sample data monitored by the business association, as of February 22, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 22175 yuan / ton, up 67.04% month on month and 122.86% year on year. The quotation of production enterprises continued to rise, and the market follow-up sentiment was high. In a short period of time, the BDO market remained high.

The domestic BDO market continues to rise. At present, the supply side of the market is still tight, manufacturers are reluctant to sell, and the offer is high-end. The mainstream negotiation focuses on 22000-23000 yuan / ton (bulk water), boosting the confidence of the industry and stimulating the mentality of chasing up in the middle and lower reaches. The market center of gravity rises sharply.

In terms of equipment, Xinye stopped for 5 days on February 15, and continued to pay attention to it; the load of Panjin Dalian reached 50%; Dongyuan stopped for maintenance from 20 to 26.

The current factory strong offer, tight supply situation continues. BDO business analysts expect that the domestic BDO market in the short term high volatility.

Recently, the domestic methanol market has recovered in a narrow range. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of February 20, the average price of methanol producers in Shandong was 2267 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 3.92% and a year-on-year increase of 14.09%. After the festival, the downstream enterprises replenish goods appropriately, the logistics is restored, and the freight is reduced. Domestic methanol market recovered slowly.

Summary of methanol market prices by Region as of February 20

Region, price

Qinghai Area/

Shanxi Province: 1800-1850 yuan / ton factory cash

Liaoning: 2050 yuan / ton

Fujian Province: 2500-2520 yuan / ton

In the two lakes area, the ex factory reference amount is 2085-2150 yuan / ton

Anhui area: 2270-2300 yuan / ton

The ex factory price of Henan Province is 2070-2080 yuan / ton

In terms of upstream and downstream, the market price of dimethyl ether rose steadily, and the market transaction continued to be moderate; the domestic acetic acid market rose as a whole, and the market gradually resumed normal trading.

In terms of external market, as of February 19, CFR China methanol closed at US $302.00-303.00 per ton, down 3 US dollars per ton; CFR Southeast Asia methanol closed at US $374.00-375.00 per ton, down 5.5 US dollars per ton. US Gulf methanol closed at 111.00-112.00 cents / gallon, up 1 cent / gallon; FOB Rotterdam methanol closed at 335.50-336.50 euros / ton, up 5.5 euros / ton.

In the future, traders’ willingness to hold goods is not strong, they have to ship goods at high prices one after another, market buying remains just in demand, and transaction is weak. Affected by the impact of domestic delivery sources, spot traders often say that it is difficult to conclude a deal. Business community methanol analysts expect that the domestic methanol market in the short term consolidation.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the price of plasticizer DOP rose sharply after the festival, and the DOP market rose. As of February 19, the DOP price was 11600.00 yuan / ton, up 15.42% from 10050.00 yuan / ton before the festival.

Upstream market of industrial chain

It can be seen from the price trend chart of isooctanol that the price of isooctanol rose sharply after the festival, and the price of isooctanol rose to about 13000 yuan / ton. Before the festival, the start-up of octanol equipment is low, the supply of octanol is insufficient, the supply of octanol is slightly tight, the price still has room to rise, and the DOP has a greater power to rise.

 
From the trend chart of phthalic anhydride, we can see that after the festival, the price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly, the market of phthalic anhydride rose, the cost of raw material phthalic anhydride of DOP rose, and the rising power of DOP increased.

Market summary and future expectation

Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business news agency, believes that after the festival, the prices of octanol and phthalic anhydride, DOP raw material costs, DOP rising pressure, DOP price rising after the festival is cost driven, DOP demand is limited, and the downstream rising support is insufficient. DOP manufacturers started construction around February 21, while most industrial chain customers started construction around February 26. DOP supply and demand are basically balanced. The lower reaches of high price DOP are more resistant, and the lower reaches of customers are less motivated to purchase. Generally speaking, DOP is affected by the rising prices of raw materials, and it may still rise sharply in the near future. However, the downstream customers’ purchasing enthusiasm is poor, and the transaction situation of DOP is not optimistic. After the 15th of the first month, with the industrial chain customers returning to work in succession, the demand for DOP rose, the enthusiasm of DOP transaction warmed up, and the price of DOP stabilized. However, it is still difficult to determine whether the high price DOP can be maintained.

1、 Price trend

According to the block data list of business news agency, on February 7, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid was 5050 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, up 0.66% month on month, and down 5.31% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The phosphoric acid market is weak and stable this week. The market price of raw material yellow phosphorus is basically stable, slightly higher than last week, but it is difficult to drive the phosphoric acid market. At present, the downstream demand is stagnant. Since the 8th, most phosphoric acid enterprises have stopped work for holidays, and the market as a whole is closed. Therefore, the price of phosphoric acid is mainly stable before the Spring Festival. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of February 7, the quotation in Sichuan was 4900-5500 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan was about 4900 yuan / ton, that in Beijing was about 4700 yuan / ton, that in Hubei was about 4900-5200 yuan / ton, that in Tianjin was about 5600 yuan / ton, and that in Guangxi was about 5400 yuan / ton.

Regional ﹣ product specification ﹣ date ﹣ price (yuan / ton)

Sichuan Province: 85% industrial grade – 4900-5500

Hubei Province: 85% industrial grade – 4900-5200

Yunnan Province: 85% industrial grade – 4800-4900

The content of ﹣ phosphoric acid in Guangxi: 85% industrial grade ﹣ 5000-5400

In Beijing and Tianjin area, the content of Pu is 85% industrial grade, 4700-5600

Yellow phosphorus, domestic yellow phosphorus market price is basically stable this week, slightly higher than last week. Up to now, the mainstream price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 16300-16600 yuan / ton; the mainstream price in Sichuan is about 17000 yuan / ton; the mainstream price in Guizhou is about 16500 yuan / ton. The price of upstream phosphate rock basically remained stable. Downstream years ago, the preparation of goods entered the closing stage, there was no significant change in the quotation of enterprises, and the phosphoric acid Market tended to be stable. Yellow phosphorus business analysts believe that the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, yellow phosphorus general market trading atmosphere, sporadic delivery enterprises. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be stable in the short term.

For phosphate rock, as of February 5, in Hubei Province, the price of 28% ammonium phosphate rock is around 370-390 yuan / ton, and the price is basically stable. Guizhou region: 30% grade phosphate ore car plate quotation reference 340-380 yuan / ton nearby; 28% grade phosphate ore car plate quotation reference 280-320 yuan / ton nearby. Guangxi region: 28% of the price of phosphate rock slab is around 290-320 yuan / ton, and 30% of the price of phosphate rock slab is 340-370 yuan / ton. Downstream enterprises in the domestic phosphorus ore market have suspended receiving orders one after another, and the mines are mainly supplying orders from old customers in the early stage. Phosphorus ore analysts from the business community believe that the phosphorus ore market is mainly stable on the eve of the Spring Festival.

3、 Future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analysts of Shangshe chemical branch, at present, the raw material price is relatively stable, the downstream demand is stagnant, and most phosphoric acid enterprises also shut down for holidays. The market as a whole is closed. It is expected that the phosphoric acid price will run smoothly before the Spring Festival.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of February 8, the average factory price of butanone in the domestic market was 7183 yuan / ton. Compared with the price at the beginning of the month (7116 yuan / ton on February 1), the price increased by 67 yuan / ton, or 0.94%. Compared with the price on January 25 (the reference price of butanone was 6666 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 516 yuan / ton, or 7.75%.

Since the end of January, the domestic butanone market has slightly recovered. In the first week of February, the domestic butanone market continued to rise steadily. At the beginning of the week, the overall inventory pressure of domestic factories was relatively low, and the factory quotation was firm, with an increase rate of 100-200 yuan / ton. However, there were not many new orders on the whole site. Most of the purchases were made by shippers before the festival, and then the market remained high and stable. At the end of the week, the trading atmosphere of butanone market was cold, and the downstream terminal was in a low level Factories have been parking for holidays. I heard that many secondary traders also said they were short of the market, with few new orders.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of February 8, the average factory price of butanone in the domestic market was 7183 yuan / ton. Compared with the price at the beginning of the month (7116 yuan / ton on February 1), the price increased by 67 yuan / ton, or 0.94%. Compared with the price on January 25 (the reference price of butanone was 6666 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 516 yuan / ton, or 7.75%.

In terms of raw materials, in February, after the raw material ether, the market of C4 began to weaken, the overall trend maintained stable operation, the downstream replenishment basically ended, the procurement mostly maintained daily consumption, coupled with the reduction of transport vehicles, the transport capacity decreased, resulting in the poor delivery of some C4 manufacturers, which was limited by the pressure of warehouse discharge. It is expected that the mainstream price of C4 will maintain stable operation before and after the festival.

Butanone high finishing before the festival and weak price rise after the festival

At present, Before the Spring Festival, the downstream procurement is basically over, and the fluctuation of price has little stimulation to the current market demand. Therefore, it is expected that there will not be a substantial price adjustment before the festival, and it is mainly to maintain a stable and high-level finishing operation. After the festival, the downstream butanone is expected to need to digest inventory in a short time, and there is not much support for new orders after the festival. Therefore, it is expected that the upward trend of butanone price after the festival is less likely.

On February 4, the commodity index of hydrobenzene was 50.38, up 3.1 points from yesterday, down 50.61% from 102.01 (2014-01-09), the highest point in the cycle, and up 67.99% from 29.99, the lowest point on April 7, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2013 to now).

This week (February 1-5), the market price of hydrobenzene in Shandong Province mainly fell, at 4075 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 5000 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 925 yuan / ton.

On February 4, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene was increased by 150 yuan / ton compared with the previous day, and 5150 yuan / ton was implemented after the adjustment. Among them, Qilu Petrochemical Company implemented 4950 yuan / ton. It’s only five days since the last price adjustment on January 30, with a continuous rise of 350 yuan / ton within five days.

On January 28, the restart of the pure benzene unit of Sinochem failed, and its 480000 ton annual production unit will not be restarted until the end of February, one month later than the expected start-up time. The whole February has a certain impact on the market supply, and the downstream purchasers of CICC are mainly long-term contract customers concentrated in East China. In the East China market, due to the expected decrease in supply, the market transactions have surged, and some customers have increased the stock volume, resulting in a large increase in demand in a short period of time, and the market price in East China has been rising one after another. Shandong followed the East China market and began to increase sharply around Wednesday. As a substitute for pure benzene, the trend of hydrogenated benzene is basically consistent with that of pure benzene. Driven by the price of pure benzene and the improvement of purchasing enthusiasm in East China, the market of hydrogenated benzene has been rising all the way. Although Shandong rose late, it rose more this week.

 
The recent start-up of hydrobenzene unit is good, and some enterprises that reduced the load in the early stage started to improve this week. There are still some enterprises that stopped work last year and have not started work yet.

The business association thinks that the current pure benzene market has reached a high level in nearly a year, but this time, the price has increased by a large margin and the time is relatively concentrated, which has basically digested the increase after the festival in advance. When the stock returns to rational, the price will eventually return to a reasonable level.

1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin

(Figure: p-value curve of epichlorohydrin product)

2、 Market analysis

The overall trend of epichlorohydrin market price fell in January. According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of January 31, the average quoted price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 10900 yuan / ton, down 12.80% compared with that on January 1, and up 0.93% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

In the first ten days of January, the market supply was relatively abundant, the manufacturers’ shipment was not smooth, the middle and lower reaches lacked confidence in the future market, the purchase intention of raw materials was not high, and the market was weak. In the middle of this year, the market continued its downward trend, the accumulated inventory increased, the follow-up of demand was insufficient, and the low price supply was frequent. In the latter half of the year, the lower reaches mainly need to prepare goods, so we should be more cautious and wait-and-see.

Upstream propylene, as of January 29, Shandong propylene market price has stabilized. According to the price chart of the business club, the propylene price fell all the way at the end of December, and began to rise on New Year’s day. It increased by about 100 yuan / ton on the 4th, and rose or stabilized in the later stage. It rose by about 250-300 yuan / ton this month. It began to decline continuously on the 21st, and dropped by 500-550 yuan / ton on the 28th. Today, it is generally stable. The market transaction is between 6900-7350 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is still between 6900-7350 yuan / ton 000 yuan / ton. Now the factory stock pressure is too big, the shipment situation is desolate

As for downstream epoxy resin, as of January 29, the liquid epoxy resin in East China has been running smoothly at a high level, the mainstream negotiation price is 25800-27000 yuan / ton, the factory mainly delivers orders, and the logistics transportation is limited near the end of the year.

3、 Future forecast

According to epichlorohydrin analysts of business news agency, the overall trend of epichlorohydrin in January was downward. In February, there was no pressure on manufacturers’ stock at present, and most of the downstream companies needed to follow up. With the end of pre Festival stock preparation in the downstream, it is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will be adjusted in a narrow range in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market information guidance.

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price trend of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid rose in January. By the end of the month, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 10270 yuan / ton, 7.76% higher than 9530 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 0.29% higher than the same period last year.

Domestic hydrofluoric acid prices rose sharply in January. So far, the mainstream price of domestic hydrofluoric acid is 10000-10800 yuan / ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid trading market is mainly higher. Recently, domestic hydrofluoric acid spot supply is tight, and the market price trend continues to rise.

The domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is slightly tight. Some hydrofluoric acid plants are overhauled in the hydrofluoric acid yard, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid continues to rise. Up to now, the mainstream negotiation of hydrofluoric acid in the southern region is 10000-10500 yuan / ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 10000-10800 yuan / ton. Recently, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is mainly rising, and the manufacturers reflect that they are bullish in the near future, and the price of hydrofluoric acid Market in the later period has a greater driving force.

The market price trend of fluorite, the raw material of hydrofluoric acid, rose. As of the end of the month, the domestic fluorite price was 2741.11 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 0.82% in January. Recently, the domestic fluorite spot supply is tight, and the temperature is low. Some manufacturers in the North are parking, and the supply in the yard is slightly tight. The domestic fluorite price trend rose slightly. Up to now, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiations is 2600-2800 yuan / ton. The high price of fluorite in the market is supported by the cost of hydrofluoric acid market. The domestic hydrofluoric acid market price is affected by the favorable support, and the trend is rising.

The domestic refrigerant market is on the rise. Recently, the automobile industry’s sales market has improved, and the refrigerant market has improved. The demand is mainly based on demand. The refrigerant industry is on the rise, and the market of various types of refrigerants has increased slightly. However, the manufacturers are under pressure to ship, the sales pressure is large, the price of raw material hydrofluoric acid is rising, which brings a certain cost support, and the export volume of refrigerants has little change The output of downstream air conditioning is low, the demand is scarce, the off-season effect of after-sales market continues, and the price of refrigerant increases little. On the whole, the positive factors support the refrigerant market generally, and the price increase is limited. At present, the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the market price remains at a low level. However, the downstream receiving capacity is limited, there is a lot of wait-and-see sentiment, the delivery of goods is not smooth, and the actual transaction focus rises slightly. Some businesses still have the phenomenon of cost inversion. The mainstream of on-site negotiations is 13500-16000 yuan / ton. Domestic R134a manufacturers reduced load operation, which supported R134a price rising. At present, the demand is not good, downstream enterprises stop work for holidays, traders withdraw from the market and wait-and-see, and logistics in some areas is out of service. At present, the market quotation of refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 19000-22000 yuan / ton, with high price, but the transaction atmosphere is general, the downstream refrigerant market is improving, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is rising slightly.

In general, due to the high price of raw material fluorite, the price of downstream refrigerants rose slightly, and the recent overhaul of some domestic hydrofluoric acid plants, the spot supply on the site was slightly tight. Supported by multiple positive factors, Chen Ling, hydrofluoric acid analyst of business community, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may continue to rise.