According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate in China has skyrocketed recently, reaching a new high for the year. As of November 20th, the benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate trading company was 95266 yuan/ton, up 11.16% during the week and 26.99% during the month. The benchmark price for domestic industrial grade lithium carbonate trading companies is 93433 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 11.32% and a monthly increase of 27.7%.

Ganfeng Lithium Industry Optimistic Forecast, Business Society Price Seek Price Increase Key Reminder
On the 16th, at the 10th International Summit on Power Battery Applications, Li Liangbin predicted that the demand for lithium carbonate would increase by 30% by 2026, reaching 1.9 million tons. At the same time, the supply capacity should increase by about 250000 tons after evaluation, and the supply and demand should be basically balanced. There is room for lithium carbonate prices to rise. If the demand growth rate exceeds 30% or even reaches 40% next year, the supply cannot be balanced in the short term, and the price may exceed 150000 yuan/ton or even 200000 yuan/ton.
The following day (17th), Price Seek from Shengyi Society emphasized that a score of+2 may lead to a surge in prices due to the large prediction range and high risk of supply-demand imbalance. On the same day, lithium carbonate futures hit the limit up, while spot prices rose sharply, with a daily increase of 4.16%.
Price increases are not groundless, strong demand provides solid support
According to data from the Ministry, from January to October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 13.015 million and 12.943 million respectively, an increase of 33.1% and 32.7% year-on-year. During the same period, the cumulative installed capacity of power batteries in China was 578 GWh, an increase of 42.4% year-on-year. In terms of energy storage batteries, due to global policy fluctuations, technological iterations, and other factors, there has even been a phenomenon of “one chip difficult to find” in the industry. From January to October, the newly installed capacity of new energy storage in China reached 94.81 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 46.31%; Chinese companies have added 267GWh of energy storage overseas orders, a year-on-year increase of 145.6%, far exceeding last year’s total.
The rise in raw material prices has driven the stock market to hit the limit up one after another
The data analyst of Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the demand for lithium carbonate will increase, and market sentiment will support the rise in lithium carbonate prices. In the long term, price increases may stimulate production and resumption, and the supply side will face pressure. Specific changes in market supply and demand still need to be monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of formic acid has been strengthening recently. As of around November 17th, the benchmark price of 85% industrial grade formic acid in China was 2910 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.83% compared to the same period last week (around November 10th), a month on month increase of 3.93%, and a year-on-year increase of 4.86%.
Core factor for price increase: maintenance plan transmitted from dual production areas
A leading production enterprise in Liaocheng is about to launch a 30 day maintenance plan, and another major manufacturer in Feicheng will implement equipment maintenance at the end of this month. The dual production area maintenance will lead to a phased contraction of market supply. The market sentiment has been dominated by three expected adjustments, from “upcoming maintenance” to “synchronous maintenance in dual production areas”, and then to “delayed maintenance until later this month”. Although the current supply remains abundant, the expectation of maintenance has provided substantial support for prices.
Downstream enterprises have always maintained a rigid procurement rhythm, with stable inventory consumption and no significant increase or contraction in demand. The main application industries such as pharmaceuticals, rubber, and leather purchase on demand, with limited acceptance of price increases, which to some extent suppresses significant price fluctuations.
The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the formic acid market price may continue to remain at a high level of around 2910 yuan/ton. If the maintenance is launched as scheduled in the latter half of the year, it may further exacerbate the expectation of tight supply. Specific attention still needs to be paid to the dynamics of the factory area.

The domestic fluorite price trend has slightly declined this week. As of the weekend, the average domestic fluorite price was 3493.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.53% from the beginning of the week price of 3512.5 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 4.77%.

Supply side: Fluorite spot normal inventory high
The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is still tight, and backward mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to reform fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased. However, the spot supply of fluorite in the market is normal, and social inventory continues to operate at a high level without obvious signs of depletion. The supply side maintains a stable production rhythm. In addition, there are few inquiries, and the shipment situation is poor. The fluorite market trend continues to decline.
Demand side: Low price of hydrofluoric acid, average refrigerant market
This week, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid remained low, and the mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China was negotiated at 11700-12200 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid equipment is still in shutdown, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid remains at more than 50%. Fluorine enterprises maintain essential orders, and hydrofluoric acid enterprises are in a loss making state. Recently, hydrofluoric acid merchants have not been actively purchasing, and the fluorite market is in a fierce game between supply and demand, falling into a “price but no market” deadlock, in the absence of strong demand support. The price of fluorite market continues to decline.
The downstream refrigerant market in the terminal is still promising, and the terminal policies of the refrigerant industry are being strengthened. Demand is expected to achieve substantial improvement, and fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in raising prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the pace of high price procurement is relatively slow, and although there has been no follow-up transaction in the circulation market, enterprises are actively controlling quantity and raising prices by sealing off inventory. The trend of refrigerant market has increased, but caution is still held towards upstream procurement, and the price of fluorite market has slightly decreased.
In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF、 Graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc., have received certain support in the application of fluorite due to the demand for new energy and semiconductors.
Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production and undergone safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a positive support for the fluorite market. In addition, the supply of fluorite in the north will become tighter in the later period. However, downstream hydrofluoric acid enterprises mainly purchase on demand, and demand has not actually improved. The fierce game between supply and demand, overall, the fluorite market price trend will slightly decline in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 10, 2025, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China is 5166 yuan/ton. Compared with November 1 (reference price of n-butanol is 5233 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.27%.

Fundamental weakness: Shandong n-butanol continues to decline
From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that the n-butanol market in Shandong Province, China, continues to decline this week. At the beginning of the week, major factories in Shandong once again offered discounts on shipments and lowered the price of n-butanol shipments by 50 yuan/ton. On November 10th, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong was referenced around 5150-5200 yuan/ton.
Analysis of Market Factors
On the demand side: Currently, the trading atmosphere in Shandong’s n-butanol market is light, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. Downstream users of n-butanol are cautious in their trading, and inquiries and purchases are mostly discussed at the low-end. High price transactions are rare, and overall demand is mainly focused on buying at low prices.
On the supply side: Currently, the supply of n-butanol in the market is still sufficient, with overall supply exceeding demand and increasing supply pressure.
In terms of cost: The propylene market on the raw material side has fluctuated, providing cost support for n-butanol to improve the overall situation. According to data from Shengyi Society, on November 10th, the benchmark price of propylene was 5890.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.76% compared to the beginning of this month (6058.25 yuan/ton).
Market outlook
At present, the wait-and-see sentiment towards n-butanol in Shandong still dominates, and the transmission between supply and demand is slow. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the n-butanol market in Shandong will mainly operate in a narrow range, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 3rd to 7th, the domestic aggregated MDI market remained stable, with an average price of 14300 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 22.28%. During the week, the MDI market was consolidating and running, and the news side was relatively calm. Downstream entry into the market on demand creates a sluggish trading atmosphere. The shipment situation of traders is average, waiting for guidance from the message end, and operating cautiously.

On the supply side, the 200000 ton/year MDI in Jinhu, South Korea will undergo maintenance in early September, with a duration of 20-30 days. It has now resumed operation. Wanhua Ningbo has a maintenance plan in November, and the rest of the equipment is running smoothly.
On the cost side, the pure benzene market has slightly improved this week, with insufficient downstream orders and continued losses. The enthusiasm for raw material procurement is still not high, but with the price of pure benzene reaching a new low, downstream companies have entered the market at a low price, and the market has rebounded slightly this week.
On the demand side, downstream demand remains weak, and the market has not shown significant improvement. Under the weak fundamentals, the aggregated MDI market is difficult to pick up.
Future forecast: The current aggregate MDI market has stable supply filling and loose supply. Major factories in the north and Ningbo have maintenance plans, which may boost the market. It is expected that the aggregate MDI market will consolidate and operate in the short term, and close attention will be paid to changes in market supply and demand.

On October 31st, the market price of epichlorohydrin remained stable temporarily. According to the monitoring and analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of October 31st, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 11900.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.46% compared to the beginning of this month.

Price influencing factors:
Raw material side: The high price of raw material glycerol provides rigid support for the market price of epichlorohydrin. The price of raw material propylene has fluctuated downward, with weak cost support. Overall, the raw material side has limited cost support for epichlorohydrin, and the market price of epichlorohydrin is currently stable. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of October 31st, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6095.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.84% compared to the beginning of this month (6543.25 yuan/ton).
Demand side: The downstream epoxy resin market has weak demand, and the trading atmosphere for actual orders is cold. Traders tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude and purchase cautiously, which further exacerbates the market downturn. Downstream terminal consumption of epichlorohydrin is not strong and lacks strong support. It is expected that the market price of epichlorohydrin will remain weak and stable in the later stage.
Market forecast: Business Society’s epoxy chloropropane analyst believes that the cost side has limited support for epoxy chloropropane. Downstream demand is weak, with urgent purchases and a cold trading atmosphere. It is expected that the market price of epichlorohydrin will remain weak and stable in the later stage, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in raw material prices and market supply and demand.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 7123 yuan/ton on October 27th, and the average price was 7088 yuan/ton on October 31st, a decrease of 0.49%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 9333 yuan/ton on October 27th and 9316 yuan/ton on October 31st, a decrease of 0.18%. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 7650 yuan/ton on October 27th and remained stable at 7650 yuan/ton on October 30th.

This week, polyethylene showed weak and narrow fluctuations. During this period (October 24-30), the domestic polyethylene plant suffered a maintenance loss of approximately 97400 tons, an increase of 1800 tons compared to the same period last week, indicating a slight easing of supply pressure. Market transactions are weakening towards the end of the month, downstream purchases are cautious, and essential needs are the main focus. The manufacturer’s quotation is firm, while the trader’s quotation fluctuates slightly.
Expected increase in supply pressure, new production capacity of Guangxi Petrochemical and restart of pre shutdown equipment; In November, agricultural film entered the off-season of demand; Crude oil is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and the cost side has limited support for polyethylene. It is expected that polyethylene may operate weakly, but the downward space is limited.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on October 30th, the ex factory price of cyclohexanone in Shandong Province, China was reference 6350 yuan/ton. Compared with October 1st (cyclohexanone price reference 6900 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.97%.
In October, the cyclohexanone market weakened and fell, with the focus of the market continuously moving towards lower levels
From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that since October, the domestic cyclohexanone market in Shandong has been showing a normal trend of weak and declining. In the first ten days of the holiday, the market situation remained calm with little change in fundamentals. After the holiday, the cyclohexanone market experienced a cold decline and the focus of on-site negotiations continued to decline, with a drop of 3.62% in the first half of the year. In the latter half of the year, the decline in the cyclohexanone market did not stop, and the market continued to decline narrowly. The inquiry atmosphere remained at the low end, with a 1.5% drop in the latter half of the year. As of October 30th, the ex factory price of cyclohexanone in Shandong region is around 6300-6400 yuan/ton.
Analysis of Factors Influencing Market Trends
In terms of supply and demand, the game of strong supply and weak demand is obvious
In October, the overall supply side of the cyclohexanone market was fully realized, but the supply side remained under pressure and the release of inventory pressure was slow. Downstream demand procurement is cautious, and demand transmission is insufficient, making it difficult for the demand side to effectively provide sufficient support to the market.
Cost aspect: Cost fluctuation, loose operational support
In October, the cost side pure benzene market fluctuated and fell, providing loose support for the cost of cyclohexanone. As of October 29th, according to data from Shengyi Society, the reference price of pure benzene was 5155.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.85% compared to October 1st (5848.67 yuan/ton).
Market analysis in the future
At present, the overall supply of cyclohexanone in the market is still relatively loose, and downstream new orders are more limited. The cost support is still weak, and the overall market support is still insufficient. The cyclohexanone data analyst of Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong will mainly operate in a range, and specific changes in supply and demand as well as cost information need to be paid more attention to.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 29th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 4000 yuan/ton. The DMF market was mainly weak in October, with prices falling narrowly. The overall price in October fell by 0.99%, with a decline of about 40 yuan/ton,
2、 Cause analysis
Market wise: In the first half of October, domestic DMF prices showed a stable to weak trend, with mainstream quotes ranging from 5500-6000 yuan/ton (in East China). Some companies slightly lowered prices due to inventory pressure. In late October, due to fluctuations in raw material methanol prices and weak downstream demand, prices were further pressured, with some manufacturers’ quotes falling to 5300-5800 yuan/ton, and high-end transactions were rare.
Supply and demand relationship: raw material costs, fluctuating methanol prices (with an average price of about 2400-2600 yuan/ton in October), limited support for DMF costs. On the demand side, downstream industries such as PU pulp and electronic chemicals have average operating rates, and procurement is mainly based on essential needs, lacking centralized replenishment power. On the supply side, some equipment maintenance has ended, market supply has increased, and inventory pressure has become apparent.
In terms of cost, domestic coal to methanol project approvals are becoming stricter, coke oven gas routes are affected by steel production cuts, Iran’s unstable natural gas supply is causing delays in new production capacity, green methanol has become a new demand highlight due to the International Maritime Organization’s zero emission policy, and MTO plant restarts and some downstream new production support demand.
3、 Future forecast
DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the DMF market is operating weakly, with insufficient price increases and weak downstream demand. It is expected that prices will maintain their current trend in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate is experiencing an unexpected price reversal. As of October 28th, the benchmark price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate spot trading society is 78400 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.51% from the beginning of the month, a month on month increase of 7.03%, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.76%; The benchmark price of domestic industrial grade lithium carbonate trading company is 76633 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.3% from the beginning of the month, a month on month increase of 7.13%, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.31%.

The core logic of price increase: the dual driving force of demand exceeding expectations and accelerated inventory depletion
The demand side is not weak in the off-season: the dual efforts of the two main markets of new energy vehicles and energy storage: in the first nine months, the sales of new energy vehicles increased by 35% year-on-year, far exceeding the expectations of 20% to 28% at the beginning of the year, and the annual growth rate of over 30% has become a certainty; The year-on-year growth rate of overseas orders for energy storage is close to 132%. Domestic first and second tier manufacturers’ overseas orders have been scheduled until next year.
De stocking boosts market confidence: Since August, the lithium carbonate market has been continuously destocking. As of the week of October 24th, the weekly inventory dropped to 130000 tons, a decrease of 2292 tons compared to the previous week. Although the 130000 ton inventory is still at a high level, downstream demand has increased and there is no substantial pressure on inventory.
There is favorable support on the supply side
The shutdown of Ningde Times, coupled with the delay in resuming production of some production capacity in Jiangxi due to the expiration of mining certificates, has provided favorable support for prices. With the arrival of winter, the production capacity of salt lakes such as Xizang in Qinghai will be seasonally limited, further limiting the supply increment.
Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that in the current market environment where inventory depletion is accelerating and demand growth exceeds expectations, lithium carbonate prices are rebounding strongly, and the short-term supply and demand pattern is improving. However, in the long run, there are still uncertain factors on both the demand and supply sides, and market changes still need to be monitored.