1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda at the beginning of the week was 1225 yuan/ton, and the average market price of baking soda at the end of the week was 1220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.41% in price and a decrease of 23.61% compared to the same period last year. On October 23, the Business Society Baking Soda Index was 80.97, unchanged from yesterday and hitting a historic low for the cycle, a decrease of 65.67% from the highest point of 235.84 on November 10, 2021. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running weakly, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is running weakly, with a factory price of 1080-1200 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1200-1300 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been consolidating this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week is currently 1186 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.6% compared to the same period last year. Downstream buyers tend to purchase on demand.
Analysts from Business Society believe that the price of baking soda has been weak in recent times, while the upstream raw material soda ash has been consolidating in recent times. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have been purchasing on demand for baking soda, and demand enthusiasm is still acceptable. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from October 20th to 24th, the domestic BDO price remained at 7465 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of 0.76% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.34%. The domestic BDO market is operating on a wait-and-see basis, with fluctuations still present in the equipment sector, low industry capacity utilization rates, and continued loss pressures. Supply side policies are tightening to support the market. Follow up on downstream contracts. Spot purchases are light and resistant to high prices, and the supply-demand game continues, making market fluctuations difficult.

In terms of supply and equipment, Junzheng and Xinye Phase I equipment have restarted, Shaanxi Black Cat equipment has slightly increased in negative operation, while Shuguang Green Hua equipment has been shut down for a short period of time. The industry’s capacity utilization rate is still low, and supply side support still exists. The supply side of BDO is expected to be affected by favorable factors.
In terms of cost, raw material calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market is operating steadily, but the overall supply in Inner Mongolia is still unstable due to the continuous impact of orderly electricity consumption. With the gradual resumption of maintenance in downstream areas such as Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Ningxia, there has been a significant increase in downstream demand. Raw material methanol: The domestic methanol market is mainly sorted out. As of 10:00 pm on October 23, the reference price for domestic methanol in Taicang is 2245 yuan/ton. Raw material calcium carbide remains stable, methanol is weakly consolidated, and the cost of BDO is affected by unfavorable factors.
On the demand side, downstream PTMEG production has slightly declined, while industries such as PBT, GBL-NMP, and PBAT have seen an increase in load, leading to an overall increase in downstream demand and a situation of supply shortage in the market. The demand for BDO is influenced by favorable factors.
In the future forecast, there will be no significant changes in fundamentals, and the supply-demand game will intensify. BDO analysts from Business Society predict that the BDO market will mainly focus on maintaining stability and consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average market price of light soda ash on October 22 was 1186 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price of 1186 yuan/ton on October 11. The price of soda ash remained stable in the middle of the month.
2、 Market analysis
Recently, the soda ash market has remained stable with a wait-and-see attitude. Downstream procurement follows up on demand, with low enthusiasm for entering the market and poor shipments from soda ash companies; On the supply side, some enterprises have stopped or reduced their production, which has supported the market mentality. However, the overall inventory of soda ash is high, and downstream follow-up is limited. In the on-site supply and demand game, most enterprises adopt a wait-and-see attitude, and the quotation runs smoothly.
On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the glass market has recently experienced a wide decline, with an average market price of 14.63 yuan/square meter as of October 22, a decrease of 6.82% compared to the price of 15.70 yuan/ton on October 11. The glass production is running smoothly, the market supply is increasing, downstream demand is average, manufacturer orders are decreasing, social inventory consumption is insufficient, enterprise inventory is accumulating, and glass prices are weakly declining.
Future forecast: Currently, the domestic soda ash spot market is running steadily, and the supply side maintenance equipment is recovering in the later stage. The soda ash mentality is expected to be bearish, and the downstream glass market is weak, providing insufficient support for soda ash. The market fundamentals are oversupplied, and it is expected that the soda ash market will operate weakly. Specific attention should be paid to the market shipment situation.

After the holiday, the domestic phenol market mainly declined. According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, from the perspective of the East China market, the domestic phenol market price was 6820 yuan/ton on October 8th, and 6516 yuan/ton on October 17th, a decrease of 4.45%. All major mainstream markets in China have experienced a similar degree of decline.

Sinopec’s listing price in East China has been lowered by 250 yuan/ton, with an execution of 6600 yuan/ton. The operating level of domestic phenol and ketone plants has remained basically stable. From the perspective of port supply, the East China cargo statistics show 21200 tons, with 3000 tons in transit in November.
From a demand perspective, downstream rigid demand is the main factor. Considering the high monthly average price and stable prices on weekends, but the short working days this month have led to a high willingness of traders to ship, resulting in insufficient trading volume in the current market.
In terms of equipment: Pay attention to the progress of Jilin Petrochemical’s new phenol ketone unit in the later stage.
Business Society predicts that the phenol market will operate narrowly in the near future, with little fluctuation in supply and tight spot prices at ports, resulting in a slight decrease in demand.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 12700 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 12666/ton, a decrease of 0.26% in price.

Domestic coconut shell activated carbon prices remained stable this week, with some manufacturers experiencing a decline in quotes. The ex factory price of coconut shell activated carbon for water purification in East China is between 9500-13000 yuan/ton, and the high price of coconut shell activated carbon limits downstream transaction enthusiasm, resulting in sluggish market sales. The focus is on market transactions.
The price fluctuations of wooden and bamboo activated carbon are relatively small, while physical method wooden and bamboo carbon are supported by costs, and factory quotations are mainly stable. From the supply side, the production of coconut in the main coconut producing areas of Southeast Asia has decreased, and the cost of domestic enterprises with high import dependence has increased, resulting in a reduction in the supply of coconut shell raw materials. The demand for coconut shell activated carbon in areas such as new energy batteries and gold extraction has increased, supporting high prices. ‌‌
Prediction: High prices in the domestic coconut shell activated carbon market limit transactions, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in the short term.

Product Name: Titanium Dioxide
Latest price on October 16th: 13860 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day.
Analysis points: On October 16th, the domestic titanium dioxide market price remained stable temporarily. At present, the price of raw material sulfuric acid has rebounded, and the cost of titanium dioxide enterprises is under pressure. The new order quotation is firm. However, due to the impact of the real estate industry, there is a shortage of production in the terminal market. Currently, downstream demand is average, and enterprises have low purchasing intentions, mostly adopting a wait-and-see approach and focusing on first-time purchases.
Prediction: It is expected that the price of titanium dioxide will remain stable in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be negotiable.

After the post holiday market downturn, it is expected to enter a period of consolidation this week. According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, from the perspective of the East China market, the domestic phenol market price was 6820 yuan/ton on October 8th, 6600 yuan/ton on October 12th, and 6543 yuan/ton on October 14th, a decrease of 4.06% after the holiday,.
At present, the fundamental fluctuations in market supply and demand are not significant. Considering the impact of spot supply and high monthly average prices, traders have little intention of excessively offering discounts. However, price manipulation lacks bullish support. From the perspective of raw materials, crude oil has shown a significant decline after the holiday, which has driven the price of pure benzene down again. Major manufacturers have lowered their listing prices twice in a row, and there is insufficient arbitrage space between regions. Traders are actively offering discounts and shipping.
Downstream terminal enterprises tend to purchase on demand, with average purchasing sentiment and low delivery rates. The downstream bisphenol A market has also shown a downward trend in focus.
As of October 14th, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country are as follows:
Region. Quotation on October 14th /Daily fluctuations
East China region./6520-6540/-20
Shandong region / 6550-6580./ -30
Surrounding areas of Yanshan Mountain / 6600./ 0
South China region / 6620./ -20
Business Society predicts that the fundamentals in the market are flat. Considering the high monthly average prices, traders have little intention of offering excessive discounts. Currently, it has entered a relatively stable trend, and downstream purchases are made according to demand. It is expected that the domestic phenol market will operate narrowly today, and attention will be paid to the cost and supply and demand fundamentals.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell in September
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 30th, the price of isooctanol was 6666.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 7.62% compared to the price of 7216.67 yuan/ton on September 1st. In September, the isooctanol enterprise plant remained stable at a high level, and the operating rate of isooctanol equipment remained stable at 96%. The production capacity of isooctanol increased, and the supply of isooctanol increased; Downstream plasticizer companies have seen a slight decrease in production, with limited demand support for isooctanol and limited demand due to increased supply. As a result, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen.
Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuate and fall
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 30th, the DOP price was 7367.50 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 2.92% compared to the DOP price of 7589.17 yuan/ton on September 1st. In September, DOP prices fluctuated and fell, leading to a consolidation in the operating load of DOP enterprises and a slight decrease in operating rates. The demand support for isooctanol weakened, resulting in a fluctuating decline in isooctanol prices.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product, on the supply side, the equipment operating load of isooctanol enterprises has been consolidating at a high level, coupled with the addition of new production capacity of isooctanol, the supply of isooctanol is sufficient. In terms of demand, DOP prices have fluctuated and fallen, while DOP companies have seen a slight decrease in production, and the support for isooctanol demand has weakened. In the future, as the supply of isooctanol increases and demand support weakens, it is expected that the price of isooctanol will remain weak and consolidate.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic PVC spot market continued the downward trend of last month in September, with prices continuing to fluctuate and decline, and the decline generally slowing down. As of September 30th, the average price of PVC in China was 4606 yuan/ton, with a monthly price drop of 0.80%.
2、 Market analysis
In the first half of this month, the PVC spot market maintained a range bound volatile trend. In the middle of the month, the spot price rebounded due to the short-term boost of the futures market. However, the good times did not last long. In the second half of the month, the supply and demand fundamentals returned to a negative impact, and PVC prices returned to the downward channel, but the decline slowed down significantly.
Overall, the market remained weak throughout September. Specifically, on the one hand, there is insufficient cost support, which is affected by weak upstream crude oil and ethylene. The futures market has been repeatedly suppressed by weak fluctuations, while spot prices have followed the market trend and fluctuated downwards. On the other hand, supply and demand pressure still shows certain pressure, and social inventory remains at a medium to high level. On the supply and demand side, the operating rate continues to be high, and production continues to increase. Although the contradiction of oversupply has slightly eased, the market is still in a stage of oversupply. At present, there is no signal of bottoming out and stabilizing in the market. Downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, with low enthusiasm for inquiry based procurement and a sluggish market atmosphere. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of September 30th, the mainstream price range of PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4680-4750 yuan/ton.
In terms of upstream calcium carbide, since September, the price of calcium carbide has generally rebounded, and the rebound force is strong. According to data monitored by Business Society, the increase in calcium carbide in September was 8.9%. However, although there are positive factors from the cost side, the PVC market has not improved due to the suppression of supply and demand. Instead, it has been pushed up by upstream costs, which has brought certain pressure to enterprise profits. Overall, the supporting effect of calcium carbide has not been apparent in the short term, but it may bring some positive signals to PVC in the later stage due to cost transmission.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there is not much uncertainty in the supply and demand of PVC in the short term, mainly due to the sustained high operating rate of manufacturers and the high inventory levels of both enterprises and the market. The market should enter the destocking stage in the future, as there may be some opportunities for future demand due to the traditional peak consumption season of “golden September and silver October”. It is expected that the amplitude of PVC prices will continue to narrow in October, and the market will gradually stabilize. The possibility of a temporary rebound in prices cannot be ruled out.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) on September 1st was 7428 yuan/ton, and the average price on September 28th was 7355 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.99%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 9683 yuan/ton on September 1st and 9596 yuan/ton on September 28th, a decrease of 0.89%. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 7982 yuan/ton on September 1st and 7912 yuan/ton on September 28th, a decrease of 0.88%.

Polyethylene fluctuated and fell mainly in September, with a weak trend. According to data statistics, the estimated overall operating rate of the polyethylene industry in September reached 80.38%, an increase from the previous month, indicating sufficient supply of polyethylene products. In September, polyethylene was in the traditional peak demand season, but the demand was lower than expected, and the follow-up of new orders in the greenhouse film market was slow; The demand for plastic film is generally low, with limited increase in production capacity. The demand side has limited support for polyethylene, and the market mainly relies on rigid procurement. Merchants actively reduce inventory, but downstream customers have limited willingness to receive goods, resulting in a weak downward trend in polyethylene prices. On the cost side, the recent peak season for traditional fuel consumption in the United States has ended, and supply side risks have not been eliminated. The situation in Russia and Ukraine is tense, and international oil prices are mainly strong in the short term. The cost side has provided support for polyethylene.
The supply of polyethylene is sufficient, but the demand side is not as expected, and the cost side has been supported in the near future; It is expected that polyethylene will mainly operate with weak oscillation.