Author Archives: lubon

The cyclohexane market remained stable this week (9.5-9.12)

1、 Price trend

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According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of September 12th, the average price of domestic industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane was 7266 yuan/ton. This week, the cyclohexane market remained stable, with prices dropping by 0.46% compared to the same period last week. Currently, downstream demand in the cyclohexane market is insufficient, and upstream cost support is average. It is expected that the cyclohexane market will remain stable in the short term, with prices fluctuating slightly.
2、 Market analysis
In terms of the market, the cyclohexane market has been operating weakly and narrowly this week, with prices experiencing a narrow decline. Currently, the focus of negotiations in the domestic cyclohexane market is stable, and the operation of equipment is normal, with sufficient spot supply and downstream essential procurement as the main focus. The purchasing atmosphere is average, and the positive support from the supply side is not obvious. The mentality in the market is stable, and operations are cautious with a wait-and-see attitude. The overall market negotiation focus is stable, with no pressure on factory shipments and considerable profits. The overall market is moving upwards.
Upstream: The pure benzene market has been operating steadily with a weak performance this week. Shenghong Petrochemical has a pure benzene production capacity of 1.37 million tons per year, and the equipment is currently operating stably. Today, the price of pure benzene is stable at 6000 yuan/ton. Jiangsu Xinhai Petrochemical has a stable price of pure benzene at 5875 yuan/ton, and Dongying Petrochemical has a stable price of 5900 yuan/ton for pure benzene today. The equipment with an annual output of about 30000 tons is currently operating normally.
Downstream: Zhejiang Juhua has a production capacity of 80000 tons of cyclohexanone, all of which is used for caprolactam. The plant was shut down on September 4th. Fujian Dongxin has an annual production capacity of 80000 tons of cyclohexanone, which is shut down without a quotation. Shandong Hualu Hengsheng’s cyclohexanone plant has a production capacity of 520000 tons, mainly for caprolactam, with a small amount for export. The quotation is 7050 yuan/ton. Currently, the supply of cyclohexane is normal, and the downstream procurement atmosphere is average, with smooth shipments. Shandong Haili has an annual production capacity of 480000 tons of cyclohexanone (including adipic acid), and Jiangsu Haili has an annual production capacity of 500000 tons of cyclohexanone (including adipic acid). The plant is shut down.
3、 Future forecast
The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current demand for cyclohexane in the market is average, with insufficient support from the upstream cost side and a quiet atmosphere for downstream procurement.

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Recently, the market price of epichlorohydrin has skyrocketed

Recently, the market price of epichlorohydrin has skyrocketed, and some manufacturers have closed their orders without reporting. Downstream demand is average, and procurement is mainly based on demand, with a general cautious and wait-and-see attitude. According to the monitoring and analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 9th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 12900 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.21% compared to early September.

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Price influencing factors:
Raw material side: The prices of raw materials propylene and glycerol have fluctuated this week. The latest reference price for 99.5% glycerol in East China is 9250 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from the previous week. The market price of propylene has slightly declined. Overall, the prices of raw materials are still at a high level, which is a positive support for the price of epichlorohydrin. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 8th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6605.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.86% compared to the beginning of this month (6663.25 yuan/ton).
Device situation:
The overall operating rate of the epichlorohydrin industry is 50-60%. Overall, the supply side of epichlorohydrin is tight, and it is expected that the market price will continue to rise in the near future.
Demand side: As the price of raw material epichlorohydrin rises in the downstream epoxy resin market, manufacturers are also experiencing price increases. However, most manufacturers are cautious and cautious, with weak demand for high priced raw material procurement. Due to insufficient follow-up of terminal demand, the actual order trading atmosphere is average, and overall, the demand side has limited support for the epoxy chloropropane market.
Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the high prices of glycerol and propylene on the cost side will support the market. In addition, unexpected events have led to a more positive sentiment among suppliers to push up prices, resulting in tight spot inventory in the market. Some manufacturers have closed their orders and are not reporting. It is expected that the market price of epichlorohydrin will continue to rise in the near future, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in raw material prices and market supply and demand.

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Weak demand and rising costs lead to expected rebound in phthalic anhydride prices in the market

The phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and fell in September

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 8th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 6133.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuation of 2.65% compared to the price of 6300 yuan/ton on September 1st. In September, the price of phthalic anhydride rebounded and rose, the price of industrial naphthalene stabilized, and the cost support of phthalic anhydride increased. The load of phthalic anhydride equipment stabilized in September, and the operating rate of phthalic anhydride enterprises was 60%. The supply of phthalic anhydride was stable, and the downstream plasticizer market fluctuated and stabilized. The operating load of equipment for plasticizer enterprises remained stable at a high level, and the demand support for phthalic anhydride was limited. Due to limited demand support, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell in September.
Rising cost of phthalic anhydride
On September 8th, Sinopec’s ortho benzene quotation was 6400 yuan/ton, rebounding and rising by 1.59% compared to the ortho benzene quotation of 6300 yuan/ton at the beginning of September. The price of industrial naphthalene is stabilizing, the price of ortho benzene is rising, and the cost of phthalic anhydride is increasing. In September, the operating load of phthalic anhydride equipment remained stable, with a 60% operating rate of phthalic anhydride enterprises and a stable supply of phthalic anhydride.
Demand side: Downstream production stabilizes, DOP prices fluctuate and fall
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 8th, the DOP price was 7517.50 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.94% compared to the DOP price of 7589.17 yuan/ton on September 1st. Cost reduction and increasing pressure for DOP decline; In September, the operating load of DOP enterprises stabilized, and the demand for phthalic anhydride temporarily stabilized, with weak support for phthalic anhydride price increases.
Future forecast
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of demand, plasticizer companies are stabilizing their production and output, while phthalic anhydride demand support is relatively weak. In terms of cost, the price of ortho benzene has rebounded and risen, the price of industrial naphthalene has fluctuated and stabilized, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has increased. In the future, the cost of phthalic anhydride will increase, and it is expected that the price of phthalic anhydride will rebound and rise.

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Supply and demand game: Aniline market consolidates

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from mid August to September 5th, the aniline market maintained a stable operation with an average price of 7550 yuan/ton. The raw material pure benzene oscillates narrowly, with average support for aniline. The production of aniline factory is stable, with occasional short shutdowns of equipment, which have little impact on the overall output. Downstream maintains essential demand, while intermediaries move in and out quickly. Under the game of supply and demand, the aniline market has remained stable in the past month.
Market forecast: Currently, there is not much change in market supply and demand, and the short-term market situation will remain stable.

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Strong support, in September, the price of ethylene glycol may fluctuate horizontally within the range

The overall focus of ethylene glycol prices shifted upward in August. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of August 31st, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4496.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.39% from the average price of 4435 yuan/ton on August 1st.

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In terms of port ethylene glycol, the average spot contract price of port ethylene glycol was around 4533 yuan/ton on August 29, 2025. This week’s spot contract basis range is+56 to+58 yuan/ton. As of the close, next week’s contract basis range is+67 to+69 yuan/ton, and in late September, the contract basis range is+70 to+72 yuan/ton.
The spot price of domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol (loose water, tax included, self pickup) per unit is 4050-4100 yuan/ton.
In terms of external ethylene glycol, recent ship cargo negotiations have resulted in transactions around 531-534 US dollars per ton.
September ethylene glycol price or range fluctuated sideways
The price or range of ethylene glycol fluctuated horizontally in September for the following reasons:
Overseas supply losses are significant, and the import volume may decrease from September to October; The arrival volume in early September is relatively low, and it is expected that the explicit inventory will drop below 450000 tons at the beginning of next week.
The domestic supply load has reached a high level, and attention should be paid to the restart of some facilities for new supply. The new facilities in Sichuan have been included in the production capacity base, and the production capacity base has been adjusted to 29.175 million tons. The total production capacity of synthesis gas to ethylene glycol is 10.96 million tons.
Downstream market situation: At the end of the month, the polyester load rebounded, and the processing gap of downstream products mostly widened, but some product prices fell. The inventory index of various polyester products has increased, indicating an increase in inventory pressure. The market expects the average polyester load to reach 91.5% in September, with improved demand support.
Overall, it is expected that the supply and demand of ethylene glycol will shift towards a tight balance in September.

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The domestic BDO market continued to decline in August

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic BDO market has fallen. From August 1st to 29th, BDO prices fell from 8400 yuan/ton to 7571 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 9.86% during the period and a year-on-year price drop of 7.34%.

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At the beginning of the month, domestic BDO prices fell significantly, leading to a decrease in supply, while the main downstream industries experienced a decline in production, resulting in a reduction in raw material digestion and a continued supply-demand imbalance. Holders actively offer discounts for shipments, causing the market center of gravity to fluctuate downward.
In the first half of the month, the supply decreased while the main downstream industries slightly increased their production, resulting in an increase in raw material digestion. However, the supply remained significantly higher than demand. Holders lack confidence in the future market and engage in negotiations to offer discounts on actual orders, resulting in a volatile downward trend in the domestic BDO market.
In the middle of the month, the supply increased while the main downstream industries experienced a decline in production, resulting in a reduction in demand for raw materials. The supply and demand in the BDO industry intensified, and the bearish mentality of industry players continued. The focus of the domestic BDO market continues to decline due to the negotiation and operation of actual order discounts by cargo holders.
Approaching the end of the month, during the transition period between the old and new cycles, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, with little news of contract order trading and actual spot order negotiations. However, the contradiction between supply and demand continues, and industry players are cautiously bearish. Holders are negotiating on the lower end of the market, and the market center is weakly oscillating.
Supply side: In terms of equipment, the second and third phases of the Lanshan Tunhe plant have restarted, while other plants are operating more stably, resulting in an increase in market supply. The overall load of downstream industries remains stable, with no significant increase in raw material digestion. The supply and demand side of the BDO industry is still under pressure, which is detrimental to the purchasing and sales mentality of industry players. The supply side of BDO is affected by negative factors.
On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: production enterprises have smooth shipments. Downstream maintenance has gradually resumed, external sales of calcium carbide have weakened, and market inventory has shifted downstream. Raw material methanol: The domestic methanol market continues to be weak. As of 10:00 am on August 29th, the reference price for domestic methanol in Taicang is 2230 yuan/ton. The fluctuation and consolidation of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol have a mixed impact on the cost of BDO.
On the demand side, as September approaches, with the arrival of the traditional peak demand season of gold, silver, and silver, downstream terminal production will increase. For example, the main downstream PTMEG industry, PBT industry, PBAT, GBL-NMP industry and other maintenance equipment will restart successively at the end of August and early September, increasing the amount of raw material digestion. And the price of raw material BDO has fallen to a low level, reducing cost pressures. Downstream industries have increased their enthusiasm for entering the market and stocking up or purchasing, which has to some extent eased the pressure on BDO factories to ship. The demand for BDO is expected to be influenced by favorable factors.
Future forecast: Currently, BDO factories are facing decent shipping pressure, and industry losses are intensifying. Suppliers are actively maintaining a stable market mentality. Downstream industries are in urgent need of procurement, and holders are concerned about settlement losses at the end of the month, which may weaken their willingness to offer discounts. The intensification of the supply-demand negotiation game, limited market fluctuations, and a double increase in supply and demand, Business Society BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will mainly consolidate at a low level.

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The polyester filament market turned from a decline to an increase in August

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall price of polyester filament in August showed a trend of recovery. The market is affected by factors such as cost and supply and demand. As of August 29th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province quoted POY (150D/48F) at 6800-6950 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 8000-8150 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 7000-7200 yuan/ton.

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The specific trend is as follows:
Rising in early August: The price of polyester filament increased slightly in early August. On August 12th, some polyester factories raised the price of FDY and other specifications by 50-100 yuan/ton. FDY production and sales significantly rebounded over the weekend, with local POY production and sales rates as high as 700%.
Mid month decline: Prices fell in mid August. As of August 15th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, POY (150D/48F), quoted at 6600-6900 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 7800-8050 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 7000-7200 yuan/ton. As of August 23rd, POY prices range from 7400-7600 yuan/ton, DTY prices range from 9000-9200 yuan/ton, and FDY prices range from 8000-8200 yuan/ton.
In late August, prices rose again. On August 26th, major polyester filament manufacturers raised their prices one after another, with DTY rising by 50 yuan, some specifications rising by 100 yuan, and some factories directly reporting a price increase of 200 yuan/ton.
Cost side: At the beginning of the month, due to lower than expected demand and US economic data, polyester raw materials were weak, PX hit a new low since its listing, PTA fell below the long-term support level of 5500 yuan/ton, and the cost side support was insufficient, leading to a decline in polyester filament prices. On August 15th, international crude oil futures rose, driving PX prices to rise synchronously, and the cost was transmitted to PTA, which gave a certain boost to the price of polyester filament. The expectation of the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the next ten days and the Russia-Ukraine conflict and other factors led to a sharp rise in crude oil and the rise in the cost of polyester raw materials, driving up the price of polyester filaments.
Supply side: Polyester factories maintain a high operating rate of over 90%, but leading enterprises regulate the market through centralized production cuts. Coupled with limited new production capacity in August, the supply pressure is temporarily relieved, which provides some support for prices.
On the demand side: Terminal textile orders have not yet substantially rebounded, and weaving enterprises have high inventory of raw fabrics. The traditional off-season ends in mid to late August, and procurement is mainly based on essential needs. However, as the “Golden September and Silver October” approaches, there is a certain demand for stockpiling downstream. Since late August, there has been an increase in domestic and foreign trade orders, and the operating rate of downstream weaving factories has gradually rebounded to around 60%, which has driven the price of polyester filament. Manufacturers, in order to repair their profit margins, create expectations of price increases through continuous price hikes, forcing downstream customers to passively purchase goods. Downstream and end customers have cautious expectations for the future, with a clear wait-and-see attitude. However, during the process of price increases, they may also buy at low prices, causing market prices to fluctuate.

Business Society believes that cost support is expected to remain strong, coupled with traditional peak season demand expectations and the willingness of enterprises to raise prices, these factors may continue to drive prices upward. It is expected that there is a high possibility of strong fluctuations in the price of polyester filament in the short term.

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The domestic urea market was weak and fell in August

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 28th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 1717 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.24% from the reference average price of 1812 yuan/ton on August 1st.
2、 Market analysis
Supply and demand situation
The domestic urea market has been weak and declining this month. In the first half of this month, the domestic urea market prices mainly declined. The urea futures market price has fallen, and the spot market has followed the weakening trend of the futures market. The urea market has sufficient supply but relatively weak demand. In mid month, the domestic urea market price slightly increased. Market inventory remains high, and futures prices are rising. At the end of this month, the domestic urea market prices rapidly declined. The futures market is not performing well, and the agricultural demand for urea in autumn has entered the off-season. The trading atmosphere in the urea market has weakened, with a small amount of downstream purchases and no significant improvement in demand.
market situation
As of August 28th, the urea market prices in Shandong are around 1680-1720 yuan/ton, Hebei is around 1690-1730 yuan/ton, Henan is around 1660-1720 yuan/ton, and Liaoning is around 1740 yuan/ton.
According to the weekly K-bar chart from June 2, 2024 to August 18, 2025, it can be seen that the domestic urea cycle is characterized by ups and downs. Domestic urea fell significantly in August, with the largest drop being -1.1% in the week of August 4th.
3、 Future forecast
Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the urea market has rebounded slightly after a continuous decline in recent days. At present, the supply of urea in the market is still at a high level, the demand for agriculture is weakening, and downstream demand is mainly replenished, resulting in low purchasing enthusiasm. It is expected that the domestic urea market will experience a weak consolidation and operation in the short term.

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The domestic ammonium sulfate market experienced a decline in August

1、 Price trend

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market was 1086 yuan/ton on August 27th, and 1140 yuan/ton on August 1st. This month, the market price of ammonium sulfate has dropped by 4.68%.
2、 Market analysis
The ammonium sulfate market has declined this month. This month, the supply of ammonium sulfate market is sufficient, downstream inquiries have decreased, procurement enthusiasm has weakened, and the market transaction atmosphere is light. The export market is not performing well, with pressure on enterprise shipments and a sluggish ammonium sulfate market. As of August 27th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 1000 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 1025-1080 yuan/ton.
According to the weekly K-bar chart from June 2, 2025 to August 18, 2025, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle is fluctuating. The domestic price of ammonium sulfate fell significantly in August, with the largest drop being 1.11% in the week of August 11th.
3、 Future forecast
An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the price of ammonium sulfate in China has been stable but declining recently. At present, the atmosphere of inquiries in the ammonium sulfate market has weakened, and market transactions are poor. There has been no improvement in domestic and international demand, and downstream wait-and-see sentiment has increased. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market will be weak in the short term, mainly due to consolidation and operation.

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Weak demand, ABS prices fell at a low level at the end of August

At the end of August, the overall ABS market continued to be weak, with some grades experiencing a decline in spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 26th, the average price of ABS sample products was 10150 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -1.58% compared to early August.

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Fundamental analysis
Supply level: Since August, the domestic ABS industry has seen an increase in load before leveling off. The Dalian plant restarted in the first half of the month, and the Tianjin equipment pipeline blowing task ended. At the end of the month, the equipment dynamics were limited, and the overall industry load level remained at 71% of mid month. The weekly average output was around 140000 tons, which remained stable. The inventory level of aggregation enterprises increased at a high level of 230000 tons, and the supply on site remained abundant. Overall, the long-term loose supply pattern in the ABS market remains unchanged, and the high inventory levels in the industry are relatively controllable. But Zhenjiang Qimei and Liaoning Jinfa have heard that there is a plan to increase the load, and the supply side is expected to continue to be loose. Therefore, the supply side has weak support for ABS spot prices.
Cost factor: At the end of August, the ABS upstream three material market had a relatively narrow change, which had limited impact on the cost side support of ABS. Acrylonitrile is operating in a stalemate within the interval, and Zhejiang Petrochemical has increased production, resulting in an increase in on-site supply. The main force in consumption lies in contract delivery, while spot market trading is sluggish, leading to increased pressure on local inventory. Combined with the decline in the raw material propylene market, it is expected that acrylonitrile may continue to remain weakly stable in the short term.
The domestic butadiene market fluctuated slightly at the end of August. In mid month, the Fushun petrochemical plant underwent maintenance, and at the same time, after a period of digestion of port cargo, low-priced spot goods in the market decreased, and the atmosphere of the spot market began to improve. On the other hand, the rise in downstream rubber futures has boosted the market, and positive news is transmitted upwards. The overall performance of the butadiene market is biased towards positive, with a narrow range of price increases.
Recently, there has been a narrow rebound in styrene. In terms of raw material pure benzene, downstream procurement is coming to an end at the end of the month, and the pressure on middlemen to ship has increased, resulting in a downward trend in transaction volume and average support for styrene. At present, the production profit of styrene is still acceptable, and the supply remains high due to high production. However, high port inventory limits the rise of styrene. Without significant changes on a macro level, it is expected that the styrene market will experience weak fluctuations in the short term.
On the demand side: In the medium to long term, the downstream factories of ABS have had average loads. The current market is in a period of transition between peak and off peak seasons, and terminal enterprises have not seen any improvement in procurement. The logic is still to maintain the demand for supplementary orders. In mid August, the production schedule of the electrical casing industry further decreased and consumption shrank. Without significant changes on a macro level, the cautious atmosphere in the external market remains unchanged, and the flow rate of goods is slow. Domestic inventory levels remain high and sideways, with continued loose supply and ample room for on-site turnover. Overall, there has been no improvement in the demand side’s support for the ABS market.
Future forecast
At the end of August, the domestic ABS market was weakly consolidating. The overall changes in the upstream three materials are not significant, while the production load of the ABS polymerization plant remains flat, and the demand side’s off-season level remains unchanged. Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the long-term drag on spot prices of ABS due to supply and demand contradictions makes it difficult for the market momentum to improve. It is expected that the ABS market will maintain a weak and stable consolidation trend in the short term.

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