After the post holiday market downturn, it is expected to enter a period of consolidation this week. According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, from the perspective of the East China market, the domestic phenol market price was 6820 yuan/ton on October 8th, 6600 yuan/ton on October 12th, and 6543 yuan/ton on October 14th, a decrease of 4.06% after the holiday,.
At present, the fundamental fluctuations in market supply and demand are not significant. Considering the impact of spot supply and high monthly average prices, traders have little intention of excessively offering discounts. However, price manipulation lacks bullish support. From the perspective of raw materials, crude oil has shown a significant decline after the holiday, which has driven the price of pure benzene down again. Major manufacturers have lowered their listing prices twice in a row, and there is insufficient arbitrage space between regions. Traders are actively offering discounts and shipping.
Downstream terminal enterprises tend to purchase on demand, with average purchasing sentiment and low delivery rates. The downstream bisphenol A market has also shown a downward trend in focus.
As of October 14th, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country are as follows:
Region. Quotation on October 14th /Daily fluctuations
East China region./6520-6540/-20
Shandong region / 6550-6580./ -30
Surrounding areas of Yanshan Mountain / 6600./ 0
South China region / 6620./ -20
Business Society predicts that the fundamentals in the market are flat. Considering the high monthly average prices, traders have little intention of offering excessive discounts. Currently, it has entered a relatively stable trend, and downstream purchases are made according to demand. It is expected that the domestic phenol market will operate narrowly today, and attention will be paid to the cost and supply and demand fundamentals.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell in September
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 30th, the price of isooctanol was 6666.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 7.62% compared to the price of 7216.67 yuan/ton on September 1st. In September, the isooctanol enterprise plant remained stable at a high level, and the operating rate of isooctanol equipment remained stable at 96%. The production capacity of isooctanol increased, and the supply of isooctanol increased; Downstream plasticizer companies have seen a slight decrease in production, with limited demand support for isooctanol and limited demand due to increased supply. As a result, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen.
Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuate and fall
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 30th, the DOP price was 7367.50 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 2.92% compared to the DOP price of 7589.17 yuan/ton on September 1st. In September, DOP prices fluctuated and fell, leading to a consolidation in the operating load of DOP enterprises and a slight decrease in operating rates. The demand support for isooctanol weakened, resulting in a fluctuating decline in isooctanol prices.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product, on the supply side, the equipment operating load of isooctanol enterprises has been consolidating at a high level, coupled with the addition of new production capacity of isooctanol, the supply of isooctanol is sufficient. In terms of demand, DOP prices have fluctuated and fallen, while DOP companies have seen a slight decrease in production, and the support for isooctanol demand has weakened. In the future, as the supply of isooctanol increases and demand support weakens, it is expected that the price of isooctanol will remain weak and consolidate.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic PVC spot market continued the downward trend of last month in September, with prices continuing to fluctuate and decline, and the decline generally slowing down. As of September 30th, the average price of PVC in China was 4606 yuan/ton, with a monthly price drop of 0.80%.
2、 Market analysis
In the first half of this month, the PVC spot market maintained a range bound volatile trend. In the middle of the month, the spot price rebounded due to the short-term boost of the futures market. However, the good times did not last long. In the second half of the month, the supply and demand fundamentals returned to a negative impact, and PVC prices returned to the downward channel, but the decline slowed down significantly.
Overall, the market remained weak throughout September. Specifically, on the one hand, there is insufficient cost support, which is affected by weak upstream crude oil and ethylene. The futures market has been repeatedly suppressed by weak fluctuations, while spot prices have followed the market trend and fluctuated downwards. On the other hand, supply and demand pressure still shows certain pressure, and social inventory remains at a medium to high level. On the supply and demand side, the operating rate continues to be high, and production continues to increase. Although the contradiction of oversupply has slightly eased, the market is still in a stage of oversupply. At present, there is no signal of bottoming out and stabilizing in the market. Downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, with low enthusiasm for inquiry based procurement and a sluggish market atmosphere. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of September 30th, the mainstream price range of PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4680-4750 yuan/ton.
In terms of upstream calcium carbide, since September, the price of calcium carbide has generally rebounded, and the rebound force is strong. According to data monitored by Business Society, the increase in calcium carbide in September was 8.9%. However, although there are positive factors from the cost side, the PVC market has not improved due to the suppression of supply and demand. Instead, it has been pushed up by upstream costs, which has brought certain pressure to enterprise profits. Overall, the supporting effect of calcium carbide has not been apparent in the short term, but it may bring some positive signals to PVC in the later stage due to cost transmission.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there is not much uncertainty in the supply and demand of PVC in the short term, mainly due to the sustained high operating rate of manufacturers and the high inventory levels of both enterprises and the market. The market should enter the destocking stage in the future, as there may be some opportunities for future demand due to the traditional peak consumption season of “golden September and silver October”. It is expected that the amplitude of PVC prices will continue to narrow in October, and the market will gradually stabilize. The possibility of a temporary rebound in prices cannot be ruled out.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) on September 1st was 7428 yuan/ton, and the average price on September 28th was 7355 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.99%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 9683 yuan/ton on September 1st and 9596 yuan/ton on September 28th, a decrease of 0.89%. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 7982 yuan/ton on September 1st and 7912 yuan/ton on September 28th, a decrease of 0.88%.

Polyethylene fluctuated and fell mainly in September, with a weak trend. According to data statistics, the estimated overall operating rate of the polyethylene industry in September reached 80.38%, an increase from the previous month, indicating sufficient supply of polyethylene products. In September, polyethylene was in the traditional peak demand season, but the demand was lower than expected, and the follow-up of new orders in the greenhouse film market was slow; The demand for plastic film is generally low, with limited increase in production capacity. The demand side has limited support for polyethylene, and the market mainly relies on rigid procurement. Merchants actively reduce inventory, but downstream customers have limited willingness to receive goods, resulting in a weak downward trend in polyethylene prices. On the cost side, the recent peak season for traditional fuel consumption in the United States has ended, and supply side risks have not been eliminated. The situation in Russia and Ukraine is tense, and international oil prices are mainly strong in the short term. The cost side has provided support for polyethylene.
The supply of polyethylene is sufficient, but the demand side is not as expected, and the cost side has been supported in the near future; It is expected that polyethylene will mainly operate with weak oscillation.

The domestic acetone market continues to be weak. From the perspective of the national acetone market, the daily quoted price was 4536 yuan/ton on September 21 to 4421 yuan/ton on September 27, a decrease of 2.53%. The acetone market in East China has once again hit a new low for the year.

The domestic acetone market continues to decline, and within the week, Sinopec’s listed price was lowered by 100 yuan/ton to 4600 yuan/ton. During the week, raw material products fell, and the losses of the phenol ketone factory eased. With the restart of Longjiang Chemical and Sinopec Mitsui facilities, the phenol ketone operating rate increased to nearly 80%. As of now, the statistics of acetone cargo in East China in September are 44000 tons, of which 35200 tons have arrived and there are still 8800 tons in transit.
From the perspective of Business Society, the cost of acetone is expected to decline narrowly next week, with little change in the supply side and a slight increase in demand. Spot prices will continue to fluctuate within the range. There will be little change in the operating load of domestic phenol ketone plants next week, and the port inventory will be around 30000 tons. The downstream demand for bisphenol A has slightly increased, while there has been no significant change in other downstream operations, and the overall demand remains stable; The narrow decline in raw material products and the decrease in cost have intensified the market’s wait-and-see sentiment.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 12866 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month it was 12900 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.26%.

Domestic manufacturers’ quotations for activated carbon have fallen this month, with the ex factory price of coconut shell water purification activated carbon (iodine value 1000) ranging from 11000 to 13500 yuan/ton. The demand for coconut shell activated carbon in traditional fields such as water treatment and air purification continues to grow, and high prices limit the enthusiasm for transactions, resulting in lower than expected market transactions.
The biomass substitute raw material technologies such as bamboo based charcoal and straw charcoal are gradually maturing, but it is difficult to completely replace coconut shell activated carbon in the short term, and the market is still dominated by coconut shell charcoal. With the implementation of production expansion plans in major producing countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines, as well as the popularization of alternative raw material technologies, prices may fall, but the market will still remain in a high volatility state in the short term.
Prediction: The domestic activated carbon market has light trading volume, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate and weaken in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 21st, the average market price of acetic acid was 2600 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton or 2.36% compared to the price of 2540 yuan/ton on September 15th. The domestic acetic acid market has continued to rise this week. Partial shutdown of supply side equipment, reduced utilization rate of acetic acid production capacity, and weakened market supply pressure; In terms of demand, downstream replenishment has increased, the market trading atmosphere is good, enterprises are actively shipping, inventory has decreased, and there is a combination of positive news on the market. Factories have a strong intention to rise, and the price of acetic acid continues to rise.

This week, the raw material methanol market is weak and declining. As of the 21st, the average price in the domestic market was 2262 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.44% compared to the price of 2295 yuan/ton on September 15th. The narrow accumulation of methanol inventory in ports has continued to suppress the market due to high inventory levels. The methanol futures market has fallen, while the spot market has been affected by downstream pre holiday replenishment and stable demand for olefins in mainland China. The main reason for the rise in methanol prices in mainland China is the differentiated operation of the methanol market.
The downstream acetic anhydride market has shown a strong upward trend. From September 15th to 21st, the average ex factory price of acetic anhydride increased from 4117.50 yuan/ton to 4205.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.13%. The upstream acetic acid market continues to rise, driving a bullish atmosphere in the acetic anhydride market. Downstream replenishment has increased, and companies have shipped well. Acetic anhydride prices have followed suit during the cycle.
Market forecast: Business Society’s acetic acid analyst believes that the utilization rate of domestic acetic acid production capacity has decreased, enterprise inventory is low, downstream procurement enthusiasm is high, and the intention of suppliers to rise is obvious. As the holiday approaches, downstream procurement expectations are optimistic, and it is expected that the acetic acid market will continue to operate strongly in the later stage. The market supply situation will be closely monitored in the future.

Price trend: (9.11-9.19) Strong oscillation, slight increase within the week

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 19th, spot electrolytic nickel was reported at 1222950 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.99% during the period and a year-on-year decrease of 2.14%. Since mid September, nickel prices have shown a fluctuating and strong trend, with macroeconomic sentiment and fundamental factors playing against each other, driving price fluctuations.
Macro level: intertwining long and short factors
The US economic data is mixed: in August, CPI rose 2.9% year-on-year and 0.4% month on month, both reaching new highs since January; But in early September, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits surged to 263000, and the job market may begin to cool down.
Although the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to the range of 4.00% -4.25%, it did not release a sustained easing signal, leading to a rebound of the US dollar above 97.2.
In terms of policy, Indonesia’s crackdown on illegal mining has not yet affected nickel supply; China has cancelled some subsidies for Russian nickel imports, but the actual impact is limited due to Russia’s increasing dependence on China.
Supply side: Abundant supply and high inventory suppress prices
The supply at the mining end remains loose, with a large amount of nickel mines in the Philippines and abundant supply, resulting in firm mine quotations; Indonesian mining regulation is tightening, with the domestic trade benchmark price rising by 0.2-0.3 US dollars in September (Phase II), but supply remains loose.
Global inventory continues to accumulate to new highs, with LME nickel inventory significantly increasing by 5292 tons during the cycle to 2282444 tons; The nickel inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange increased significantly by 3732 tons to 252843 tons during the trading cycle. The global total inventory level has reached a historical high, reflecting the current severe oversupply pattern, which continues to suppress price increases.
The latest data released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) shows that from January to July 2025, the global refined nickel production was 2.2376 million tons, with a consumption of 1.9934 million tons and an oversupply of 244300 tons
Demand side: Seasonal improvement but overall weakness
In the field of stainless steel, the traditional “golden nine and silver ten” peak season has led to an increase in steel mills’ production schedules, which has supported the demand for nickel iron. On September 19th, the benchmark price of stainless steel was reported at 13092.50 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.29% during the week. The overall demand for ternary batteries in the new energy sector is still weak, and the increasing proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries is suppressing the demand for nickel. The demand for nickel sulfate is showing a phased recovery. The demand in the field of alloy electroplating is relatively stable.
Market outlook: Nickel prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the upper space being significantly suppressed by high inventory and oversupply.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 12933 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 12933/ton, which is stable.

Domestic manufacturers’ prices of activated carbon remained stable this week, with the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China ranging from 9500 to 13000 yuan/ton. Currently, the supply of coconut shell raw materials remains tight, and the demand for porous carbon materials for new energy batteries is increasing. High prices limit downstream transaction enthusiasm, and the market is sluggish.
From the supply side, the main coconut producing areas in Southeast Asia have been affected by natural disasters, resulting in a decrease in production and an increase in costs for domestic enterprises with high import dependence. Coconut production in countries such as the Philippines and Indonesia has also been affected, leading to a decrease in coconut shell raw material supply and an increase in demand for coconut shell activated carbon in areas such as new energy batteries and gold extraction, supporting high prices. ‌‌
Prediction: The domestic market prices are high and transactions are lower than expected. It is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on September 16th, the ex factory price of cyclohexanone in Shandong Province, China was referenced to 7087 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as September 1st. Compared with August 1st (cyclohexanone price reference 7262 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.41%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in the first half of September, the domestic cyclohexanone market in Shandong Province was mainly consolidating, with relatively calm news on the market and limited overall fluctuations. As of September 16th, the reference market price for cyclohexanone in Shandong, China is around 7050-7150 yuan/ton.
Fundamental situation
In terms of supply and demand: Currently, the supply side of the cyclohexanone market is stable, and downstream users purchase according to their needs. The transmission between supply and demand is still acceptable.
In terms of cost: In early September, the market for cyclohexanone cost end pure benzene fluctuated at a high level, while cyclohexanol remained under cost pressure. On September 15th, the reference price for pure benzene was 5998.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.39% compared to September 1st (5975.33 yuan/ton).
Market analysis in the future
At present, the trading atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market is relatively mild, and the overall supply performance of the market is sufficient. The demand continues to be mainly based on stocking up for essential needs. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Business Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly be in a state of consolidation and operation, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.