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In September, cyclohexanone market stopped falling and recovered

In September, the domestic cyclohexanone market stopped falling and recovered. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone market at the beginning of the month was 9550 yuan/ton, and the average price of domestic cyclohexanone market at the end of the month was 9900 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 3.66% and a year-on-year decrease of 22.41%.

 

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In September, the cost of cyclohexanone, supply and demand both performed well, the price market stopped falling and recovered, and the ladder rose.

 

At the beginning of the month, the domestic market of cyclohexanone rose by a narrow margin, mainly due to the rising market of raw material pure benzene. Cost oriented good support. Downstream caprolactam rose steadily. Chemical fiber companies need to follow up. Driven by the good news of cyclohexanone, the low price decreased and the transaction focus increased.

 

In the middle of this month, the domestic cyclohexanone market was reorganized after rising, mainly in shock. The raw material pure benzene is slightly favorable. The downstream chemical fiber steel needs to be purchased. There is no obvious pressure on cyclohexanone for the time being. The manufacturer’s low price is reduced, and the transaction atmosphere is general.

 

In the last ten days of this month, the domestic market of cyclohexanone was in a strong shock, and the price of Hualu Hengsheng, the main manufacturer, rose from 9700 yuan/ton to 10100 yuan/ton, mainly because the cost was supported by the upstream and the downstream pre holiday replenishment and merchants pushed up, and the transaction focus rose.

 

Summary of domestic cyclohexanone market as of September 29:

 

Region, price

In East China, 10000-10100 yuan/ton will be sent to

In South China, 10100-10200 yuan/ton of spot exchange will be sent to

In Shandong, 9900-10000 yuan/ton of spot exchange is sent to

Raw material pure benzene: According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic pure benzene market has risen significantly. The price at the beginning of the month was 7617 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 7899 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.24%.

 

Downstream caprolactam: the business community monitored that the domestic caprolactam spot market rose first and then fell, with the price of 11816 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 11469 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a decline of 2.94% in the cycle.

 

Raw material pure benzene fluctuated at a high level, with stable cost support, and the intention of downstream goods preparation increased before the festival. The cyclohexanone analyst of the business community predicted that the short-term cyclohexanone market would be dominated by a strong consolidation.

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Domestic market trends of mixed xylene on September 28

1、 Summary of prices of mixed xylene on September 27:

 

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Qingdao Refining&Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 7950 yuan/ton, Shijiazhuang Refining&Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 7850 yuan/ton,

 

Jiujiang Petrochemical quoted 8150 yuan/ton, Yangba quoted 7950 yuan/ton,

 

Guangzhou Petrochemical quoted 8100 yuan/ton, Maoming Petrochemical quoted 7700 yuan/ton,

 

Changling Refining&Chemical offered 8200 yuan/ton,

 

Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 8050 yuan/ton.

 

2、 Fluctuation trend:

 
3、 Analysis and comments:

 

In terms of crude oil, the OPEC+meeting is coming, and the market expects that the meeting policy may be aimed at reducing supply; Before the arrival of Hurricane Ian, the supply in the US Gulf region was limited, and international oil prices rebounded yesterday.

 

Today, Sinopec’s mixed xylene in East China decreased by 150 yuan/ton, and Xinhai Petrochemical’s mixed xylene decreased by 50 yuan/ton.

 

Crude oil rebounded and gasoline slightly strengthened, boosting the mixed xylene market. However, the market negotiation was light, and Sinopec lowered the price of mixed xylene in East China, so the industry was cautious.

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The domestic PET market is narrowly weak (9.20-9.27)

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of September 27, the price of PET water bottle has been operating in a narrow range and weak. At present, the average price is 8310 yuan/ton, down 0.95% compared with the same period last week. The overall market is operating in a narrow range and weak. At present, the focus of negotiations is low, the market shipments are average, the logistics is smooth, and the operating rate is stable.

 

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The domestic PET price is narrow and weak. Compared with the same period last week, the price has decreased slightly. At present, the market operation rate is normal, the manufacturers mainly give up profits and take orders, the shipment is active, the logistics is smooth, the supply side is normal, the overall market transaction atmosphere is general, the negotiation atmosphere is fair, and the downstream readiness is general. At present, the mainstream price is about 8300 yuan/ton, and the small reduction is weak,

 

Upstream ethylene glycol: As of September 26, the average price of oil to ethylene glycol P value was 4366.67 yuan/ton, down 1.69% from the market average price of 4441.67 yuan/ton on September 16. Downstream demand was weak, mainly weak in the short term.

 

Rubber and plastic commodity index: On September 26, the rubber and plastic index was 705 points, up 3 points from yesterday, down 33.49% from the highest point in the cycle 1060 points (March 14, 2012), and up 33.52% from the lowest point 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

 

PET analysts from the business community believe that the PET market is expected to operate in a narrow and weak range in the short term, and the price fluctuation range is limited.

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Maleic anhydride market price fell this week (9.19-9.25)

According to the data from the business society, the domestic maleic anhydride market price fell this week. As of September 25, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 8620.00 yuan/ton, down 0.92% from the price of 8700.00 yuan/ton on September 19, and up 13.42% from the same period last month.

 

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On September 25, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 81.58, unchanged from yesterday, 50.98% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 166.43 (2021-12-15), and 59.40% higher than the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

The domestic benzene maleic anhydride market was shut down this week. The supply of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride has increased this week, and the downstream has entered the pre festival stocking cycle, but the resin purchasing mood is general, stocking is cautious, and the deal is limited. As of the 25th, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 8000 yuan/ton, that in Jiangsu was about 8000 yuan/ton, that in Shanxi was about 9500 yuan/ton, that in Hebei was about 9000 yuan/ton, and that in South China was about 8500 yuan/ton.

 

On the upstream side, the price of pure benzene rose this week. On September 19, the average price of pure benzene was 7850.50 yuan/ton, and on September 25, the average price of pure benzene was 7947.17 yuan/ton, up 1.23%. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China rose this week, at 7866.67 yuan/ton on September 19, and 7966.67 yuan/ton on September 25, up 1.27% weekly. As for n-butane, as of September 25, the price in Shandong was 5800 yuan/ton.

 

According to the maleic anhydride product analysts of the business community, the benzene oxidation process in the domestic maleic anhydride market has suffered a serious loss at present, the factory has been shut down for maintenance, and the market circulation supply is small; The supply of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride has increased this week, and the downstream has entered the pre festival stocking cycle, but the resin purchasing mood is general, stocking is cautious, and the deal is limited. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will continue to decline in the near future.

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Yellow phosphorus market price rose first and then fell this week (9.16-9.23)

1、 Price trend

 

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According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus rose this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus last Friday was 36250 yuan/ton, and the average price this Friday was 36500 yuan/ton. The price will rise within seven days by 0.69%.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

The yellow phosphorus market price rose first and then fell this week. At present, the market transaction is fair. Downstream stock has slowed down compared with last week, and inquiries have increased. The actual transaction is more cautious and more wait-and-see. Most manufacturers suspend the external quotation, and single discussion is preferred. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is about 36000-37000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Sichuan yellow phosphorus is about 37000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Guizhou yellow phosphorus is about 36000 yuan/ton.

 

In terms of phosphate rock, the domestic market for medium and high-end grade phosphate rock continued to operate steadily this week. Up to now, the reference price of phosphate rock is 1064.00. The domestic market of medium and high-end grade phosphate ore is mainly stable and consolidated. The market is generally quiet, and the information has not changed much. From the supply side, the supply side is still tight, and the supply side continues to support the market at a high level. From the demand side, the low commencement of downstream phosphate fertilizer has brought some concern to the market. After the festival, the phosphate ore market was light and stable.

 

In terms of coke, on September 23, the coke market price of Shandong Port was temporarily stable, with the quasi first level ex warehouse price of the port at about 2650-2680 yuan/ton, and the first level ex warehouse price at 2750-2780 yuan/ton. The port market was operating stably today, with the market sentiment recovering. After the rise was opened, the market mentality was boosted, the intention of gathering ports was restored, and the freight was in a reasonable range. On the 23rd, Xiaoyi arrived at Rizhao at 215 yuan/ton, and the rest arrived at Rizhao at 210 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable.

 

For phosphoric acid, the price of phosphoric acid fell this week. The average price of phosphoric acid last Friday was 10320 yuan/ton, and this Friday was 10130 yuan/ton. The price fell within the week, by 1.84%. The price of raw yellow phosphorus rose first and then fell, and the overall focus of the phosphoric acid market moved downward. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will operate weakly and stably in the short term.

 

3、 Future market forecast

 

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the Chemical Branch of Business Cooperative believe that the yellow phosphorus market price rose first and then fell this week. On the whole, the price of upstream phosphate rock settled at a high level, while the price of downstream phosphoric acid market fell. The price of yellow phosphorus rose first and then fell this week. The situation of taking goods was not as good as that of last week. It was mainly just in demand. The yellow phosphorus market is expected to operate weakly and stably in the short term.

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The price of raw materials dropped. The acetic anhydride market fell this week

Acetic anhydride prices fell this week

 

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According to the data monitoring of the business association, the price of acetic anhydride fell in a volatile manner this week, and the acetic anhydride market declined in a weak way. As of September 22, the price of acetic anhydride was 5700 yuan/ton, down 5% from 6000 yuan/ton at the end of last week; This week, the price of raw material acetic acid fell, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the acetic anhydride market fell.

 

The price of raw materials fell sharply this week

 
As can be seen from the trend chart of acetic acid price of the business community, the price of acetic acid fell sharply this week. As of September 22, the price of acetic acid was 3132.50 yuan/ton, down 1.65% from 3185 yuan/ton on September 15 last weekend. The demand remains weak, the transactions in the acetic acid market are light, the price of acetic acid drops in shock, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride increases.

 

Future outlook

 

According to the acetic anhydride data analysts of the business community, the acetic anhydride market is still flat this week, the supply of acetic anhydride is sufficient and the demand is weak, and the price of acetic anhydride is mainly supported by the cost of raw materials. The price of raw material acetic acid fell this week, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride increased. In the future, the demand for acetic anhydride is weak due to the decrease of its cost. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fall in a volatile way in the future.

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The market of polybutadiene rubber rose slightly (9.14-9.21)

The butadiene rubber market rose slightly this week (9.14-9.21). According to the monitoring of the business community, as of September 21, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in China was 13020 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from 12970 yuan/ton last Wednesday. The short-term maintenance of 150000 t/a cis-1,4-polybutadiene unit of Sichuan Petrochemical Corporation, the shutdown of Taixiang Yubu for maintenance, the load reduction operation of Haopu and Zhenhua units, the pressure on the short-term supply side is relieved, and the supply side forms a support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. However, at present, the construction of downstream tires in the traditional peak season of Jinjiuyinshi has not been greatly improved, mainly due to rigid demand, and the demand support is not ideal; Butadiene prices rose and cost continued to support. As of the 21st, the ex factory price of two barrels of oil was stable, and the ex factory price of Sinopec North China Sales Company Qilu Shunding was 12600 yuan/ton.

 

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The butadiene market rose this week (9.14-9.21), and the cost of cis polybutadiene rubber was supported. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of September 21, the price of butadiene was 9164 yuan/ton, up 1.75% from 9006 yuan/ton last Wednesday.

 

The natural rubber market rose slightly this week, but the price was lower than that of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber, which was insufficient to support cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of September 21, the price of natural rubber was 12120 yuan/ton, up 1.37% from 11956 yuan/ton last Wednesday.

 

Future market forecast: according to the analysts of the business community, the supply pressure of the polybutadiene rubber production chain has eased, the demand side just needs weak support, and the cost side is going up. It is expected that the price of polybutadiene rubber will continue to rise in the later period.

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Cost&supply and demand are favorable, and liquid ammonia rebounds by more than 15% in the first ten days of September

Since September, the domestic liquid ammonia market has ended the bottom consolidation of nearly two months, and a perfect rebound has emerged in the middle and early days. Shandong, Hebei, Lianghu and other major production areas saw an increase of 600-800 yuan/ton. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of September 20, the percentage increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong Province since September has reached 15.09%, and the current mainstream quotation range is 4200-4400 yuan/ton. The sharp increase in the market is mainly related to the tension between supply and demand, as well as the cost positive impact of the high upstream coal and natural gas prices.

 

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Supply side: tightening supply in main production areas

 

On the supply side, since the end of August, the operating rate of main liquid ammonia production areas has continued to decline. Fujian, Henan, Shanxi, Hebei and Shandong all have large factories that have entered the maintenance period or temporarily stopped due to faults, and enterprises that have stopped in the early stage, such as Hebei Kaiyue, Shandong Luzhou and Hubei Heyuan, have been unable to resume production. During this period, the superposition of “early shutdown” and “new shutdown” devices has led to a sharp reduction in market supply. In addition, many downstream devices of co production enterprises have resumed operation, increasing self consumption and reducing the supply of goods that can be circulated to the market. The continued contraction of supply is the main reason for this upward trend.

 

Cost: High coal and natural gas prices and ammonia enterprises face upward pressure

 

The high cost is also the driving force for the rise of liquid ammonia. Since the end of August, the coal market has continued to rise. As of September 20, the steam coal has risen by nearly 15% since September, which has continuously brought profit pressure to downstream ammonia enterprises. At the same time, with the help of the tight supply and demand of liquid ammonia, the ammonia enterprises’ motivation and willingness to increase prices have been supported. However, with the national regulation of coal prices, the rise of coal has been restrained to some extent, and the profits of downstream methanol, liquid ammonia and other products are still within a reasonable range. The price of natural gas also rose sharply in September, which also played a cost driven role for ammonia enterprises in Southwest China. According to the monitoring of the business community, LNG rose as high as 15.89% this month.

 

Demand side: demand boosts market confidence

 

In the end, the downstream demand of liquid ammonia continues to rise. The price of urea continued to rise, and the urea rose by 7.0% in September. The number of new orders sold by many manufacturers increased, and the price of new orders kept rising. The demand for downstream compound fertilizer in autumn was followed up, and the industrial demand also improved. In addition, the export and light storage promoted the market. As of September 20, the urea market price had reached 2550-2650 yuan/ton. Relative to the supply tension, the recovery of downstream demand also forms a strong support for the market.

 

From the above figure, we can see that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same. In September, the price difference between the two narrowed significantly, and the curve crossed at the near end. The strength of liquid ammonia compared with downstream urea also showed the tight situation at the supply side, as well as the continuous improvement of the profits of ammonia enterprises.

 

From the above figure and the liquid ammonia industry chain diagram, the current profits of the liquid ammonia industry chain are fair, and the price increase of natural gas upstream of the gas head is strong, which affects the profits of ammonia enterprises in the southwest gas head. However, the sharp rise of the liquid ammonia price has eased the pressure on the profits of ammonia enterprises. The pressure of downstream fertilizer enterprises is relatively high. The growth of urea, boric acid and other products was weaker than that of the upstream, while that of ammonium chloride (- 14.85%), ammonium nitrate (- 4.61%), diammonium phosphate (- 8.81%) and other products was weaker.

 

Future market forecast

 

The liquid ammonia analysts of the business community believe that since this week, the rising momentum of domestic ammonia enterprises has generally weakened, and the supply and demand side of the market has gradually moved towards easing. The expected resumption of production in the later period may bring some negative effects to the market, and the release of some new capacity has also increased the supply expectation. However, before the National Day holiday, the market procurement demand is still there, and the continuation of the downstream peak season effect will make ammonia enterprises continue to rise in price. Based on comprehensive consideration, it is estimated that liquid ammonia will still be subject to strong shock in the near future.

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The supply of hydrogen peroxide is tightening, and the market is stable, rising slightly

According to the monitoring data of the business community, after the Mid Autumn Festival, the market of hydrogen peroxide rose slightly. As of September 19, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market was 930 yuan/ton, 1.45% higher than that before the festival.

 

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The hydrogen peroxide market rose slightly due to tight supply

 

After the Mid Autumn Festival, the demand for hydrogen peroxide in terminal printing, paper industry and other industries was stable, and the hydrogen peroxide market continued to operate stably. As some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers shut down for maintenance, the supply of hydrogen peroxide is relatively tight. This week, the hydrogen peroxide market is rising, with the mainstream quotation of about 900 yuan/ton, up more than 1%.

 
Li Bing, hydrogen peroxide analyst of the business community, believes that the supply is tightening, and the hydrogen peroxide market is expected to rise in the future.

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The supply is sufficient, and the market of ammonium sulfate drops at a high level (9.13-9.16)

1、 Price trend

 

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According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1438 yuan/ton on September 13, and 1411 yuan/ton on September 16. The price of ammonium sulfate fell 1.85% this week.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

The market price of ammonium sulfate fell this week. Because the price of ammonium sulfate is at a high level, the downstream has a resistance to the high price of ammonium sulfate. In order to reduce inventory, enterprises have lowered prices slightly. The urea market rose this week, which was beneficial to the ammonium sulfate market. The downstream compound fertilizer market is heating up, the demand for raw materials is increasing, and the supply and demand of ammonium sulfate in the plant are stable. As of September 16, coking grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Shandong Province was 1450 yuan/ton, and the mainstream factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Hebei Province was about 1360 yuan/ton. Domestic ammonium sulfate, the mainstream factory quotation in Shandong is 1420-1580 yuan/ton.

 

This week, the downstream compound fertilizer market is warming up, the market turnover is good, and the purchase of ammonium sulfate is increasing. At present, wheat fertilizer is mainly sold in the compound fertilizer market. This week, the urea cost was supported well, and the agricultural demand was small, and the compound fertilizer plant actively followed up. It is expected that some regions will have limited production, and urea will rise slightly in the future.

 

3、 Future market forecast

 

Ammonium sulfate analysts from the business community believe that the current trend of ammonium sulfate market is high and falling, and the downstream price is depressed, but the market demand is stable. The supply of ammonium sulfate was sufficient, and the manufacturer lowered the price slightly to digest the inventory. It is expected that the market price of ammonium sulfate will fall slightly in the short term.

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