Aluminum prices fluctuate horizontally

Aluminum prices remained relatively firm this week (6.23-6.30). According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 30, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20786.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.38% from the market average price of 20303.33 yuan/ton on June 1.
Overview of Macro Factors
1. International geopolitical changes, easing of the situation in the Middle East, diminishing risk aversion, and a shift in capital risk appetite have to some extent suppressed international commodity prices.
Recently, the latest statements from the Federal Reserve and Trump’s related remarks on the Fed have raised expectations of interest rate cuts, and with the help of financial markets, commodities have stopped falling and rebounded.
Fundamental Overview
On the supply side, the operational capacity of electrolytic aluminum has slightly increased, resulting in a slight increase in output. As of June 26th, the weekly production of mainstream domestic manufacturers remained around 844000 tons.
On the demand side, during the off-season of traditional consumption, the demand for building profiles, home appliances, and other products is relatively weak. Although new energy vehicles can drive some of the demand, the photovoltaic market has experienced a decline in production and overall demand growth is weak. At present, the arrival of goods in consumer areas is generally average, and the inventory of finished products as terminal raw materials is relatively high. The order volume is relatively low, and the processing cost has slightly decreased. Demand has weak support for aluminum prices.
On the cost side, the price of alumina has stopped falling and stabilized, while the cost side of electrolytic aluminum has provided some support for aluminum prices this week.
Low level sideways trend in social inventory: Currently, the social inventory of aluminum ingots is relatively low and is in a sideways trend this week. As of June 30th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in mainstream consumption areas in China was 462000 tons, a decrease of 46000 tons from June 5th.
Future expectations
At present, the market trading logic tends to be macro oriented, and may later shift to fundamentals. With the expectation of a subsequent consumption off-season, the upward space for aluminum prices will narrow.