The price of ethylene glycol stopped falling and fluctuated in January
The price of ethylene glycol will stabilize and stop falling in January 2026. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of January 16th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 3808.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.45% from the average price of 3864.17 yuan/ton on January 1st.
In terms of port ethylene glycol, as of the 16th, the spot contract for port ethylene glycol (starting from 500 tons) is deeply discounted. In mid to early January, the basis of the spot contract has been maintained within the range of -120 to -160 this week. As of the close, the basis quotation for next week’s contract (before 12.25) is -130 to -125, the basis quotation for next week’s contract (before 1.30) is -125 to -125, the basis quotation for February’s contract (before 2.25) is -90 to -85, the basis quotation for March’s contract (before 3.25) is -40 to -35, and the basis quotation for April’s contract (before 4.25) is+5 to+10.
The spot price of domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol (loose water, tax included, self pickup) for whole vehicle manufacturers is 3240-3380 yuan/ton.
In terms of external ethylene glycol, as of January 16th, the recent negotiations and transactions for ship to land prices have been around 441-443 US dollars per ton.
Changes in Ethylene Glycol Port Inventory in January 2026:
On January 15, 2026, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 728000 tons, an increase of 68500 tons from the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China on December 29, which was 659500 tons.
The port inventory began to accumulate in early October 2025 and reached its peak for the year in mid to early December, rising from 355000 tons to 755000 tons. From mid December onwards, the inventory fell back to 628000 tons.
Analysis of the reasons for the fluctuation of the January ethylene glycol stabilization range:
In mid to early January 2026, the price of ethylene glycol stopped falling and fluctuated, with the core being a long short game of cost support, short-term supply disturbance and demand off-season, high inventory, and the release of new production capacity. The spot price fluctuated narrowly in the range of 3650-3850 yuan/ton, without any unilateral trend.
1. Cost side support and volatility form a bottom support for prices
Crude oil prices fluctuated: In January, international oil prices showed a fluctuating trend due to the influence of geopolitical situations such as the Middle East and South America. As an important source of cost for ethylene glycol, it provided temporary support for its price and suppressed its decline.
Coal prices are relatively stable: Coal to ethylene glycol accounts for a relatively high proportion of domestic production capacity, and although coal prices have fluctuated, there has not been a significant decline, providing some bottom support for ethylene glycol prices. However, coal to ethylene glycol is still in a loss making state, and the cost support is limited.
2. Supply side: The coexistence of short-term contraction and long-term easing intensifies the long short game
Overseas plant maintenance and disturbance: Two sets of 720000 tons/year plants in Taiwan and South Asia have been completely shut down, and some plants in the Middle East have undergone load reduction maintenance due to cost or geographical factors, resulting in a short-term reduction in import volume and easing supply pressure.
Domestic new production capacity release and plant restart: The 800000 ton/year new plant in South China started operation in early January, and new plants such as BASF Zhanjiang were put into operation. Pre maintenance plants were restarted one after another, and the overall operating rate in China remained above 70%. The supply increment is clear, and there is a strong expectation of long-term easing.

Continuous accumulation of port inventory: Ethylene glycol inventory in East China ports continues to accumulate, and high inventory levels are suppressing price rebounds.
3. Demand side: The off-season effect combined with the approaching Spring Festival provides a bottom for basic demand, but the increment is insufficient
The off-season characteristics of the polyester industry are obvious: as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream polyester enterprises enter the traditional off-season. The operating rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has dropped to around 56%, and the operating rate of polyester has gradually declined. In addition, nearly 10 million tons of polyester production capacity are planned to be shut down for maintenance in February, and there is a strong expectation of demand contraction.
Basic needs support: The polyester industry still has a certain level of basic needs, and some companies are stocking up before the holiday, which provides some support for the price of ethylene glycol and avoids a sustained sharp decline in prices.
4. Market sentiment and expectations: The pattern of mixed long and short volatility is difficult to change
Geopolitical situation impact: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, South America, and other regions have raised concerns about supply stability in the market, driving a temporary rebound in prices. However, the conflict has not escalated further and the support is limited.
As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, market participants have a strong wait-and-see attitude, traders are actively shipping, and buying follow-up is average. The basis of proximal supply has weakened, and prices are showing a wide range of fluctuations.