According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market fluctuated and fell this week. From June 30th to July 7th, the domestic butadiene market price decreased from 9066.67 yuan/ton to 8600 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 5.15% during the cycle. The butadiene market has fluctuated downward this cycle, dragged down by insufficient demand, and the ex factory prices of main refineries have been lowered one after another in the later part of the week. The spot market supply on the supply side has been relatively sufficient recently, and the main production areas are actively exporting. There have been some unsold transactions in the market, and market transactions are slightly weak. As of July 7th, the delivery price in the Shandong market is around 8800-8850 yuan/ton.

Cost wise: The international crude oil market has fluctuated and risen this cycle. As of July 4th, the US WTI crude oil futures were closed for the Independence Day holiday, and the September Brent crude oil futures contract settlement price was $68.30 per barrel.
Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 8900 yuan/ton, which will be lowered by 500 yuan/ton this week.
On the demand side: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the recent butadiene rubber market has been weak and declining, while the futures market for butadiene rubber has been weak and volatile. The supply price of butadiene rubber is temporarily stable, and there has been a slight adjustment in merchant offers. As of July 4th, the mainstream reports for Daqing, Yangtze, and Qilu Shunding are 11650-12000 yuan/ton; Some private brands are priced around 11450-11700 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: The recent crude oil trend has been volatile, with insufficient guidance for the butadiene market and minimal impact. This week’s trend will mainly return to the impact of supply and demand. From the supply side perspective, refineries in major domestic production areas are actively shipping, and the market supply is relatively sufficient. On the demand side, the overall downstream demand tends to be rigid. Under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, it is expected that the overall trend of the butadiene market will be weak and volatile.