In July, the domestic acetone market experienced a strong reversal and upward trend, completely reversing the deep decline in June. The market rhythm in July was clear, with a steady increase in the first half of the year, accelerated growth in the middle, and stabilization at a high level in the second half. The price center continued to shift upwards, and market trading activity rebounded significantly. The growth performance in the chemical sector was impressive, showing an overall trend of strengthening. At the beginning of the month, mainstream manufacturers raised prices, driving market bullish sentiment, and the market situation significantly repaired the previous decline within the month,
1. Supply side contraction lays the foundation for price increases: In July, domestic phenol ketone plants entered a centralized maintenance cycle, and the industry’s operating rate dropped below 70%, hitting a nearly one-year low, with a monthly production loss of 85900 tons. At the same time, port supply and social inventory remain low, and the market’s spot circulation is tight. Holders are reluctant to sell at high prices, and the shortage of spot supply directly drives prices steadily upward.
2. The demand side has rebounded, effectively absorbing the increase: acetone prices fell to the bottom in June, providing a low-priced stocking window for downstream industries. In July, downstream essential needs such as coatings, solvents, and chemical intermediates were released in a concentrated manner, and enterprises concentrated on buying bottom and replenishing inventory. The market transaction heat continued to rise, and the purchasing power of essential needs fully digested spot inventory, forming a positive cycle of “transaction recovery and price rise”, supporting the market to continue to rise.
3. Supported by costs and emotions, the market elasticity is amplified: the upstream raw material pure benzene increased by 8.12% in July, significantly raising the cost of phenol ketone production enterprises and laying a solid bottom support for acetone prices. At the same time, the overall atmosphere of bulk commodities is relatively strong, and the industrial chain is recovering across the board. Coupled with the concentration of top enterprises raising prices and adjusting prices, the pessimistic market sentiment in the early stage has been completely reversed. The bullish and hoarding sentiment on the trade side has further amplified the monthly increase.
From the perspective of short-term technical indicators, the difference between the 10 day moving average and the 20 day moving average of acetone spot prices in July continues to widen, fully confirming the effectiveness and sustainability of this upward trend. After hitting bottom and rebounding in early July, the 10 day moving average quickly turned upwards. In mid to late July, the 10 day moving average remained stable above the 20 day moving average with a steady upward trend. The moving average difference maintained a positive expansion trend, and the overall 10/20 day moving average difference continued to expand positively, becoming the core technical support for the upward trend of the acetone market in July.
The current short-term strong pattern of the acetone market has not changed, with a stable 10/20 day moving average structure and technical support for high price operation. However, there is a marginal risk of weakening in the subsequent market situation. With the resumption of production of maintenance equipment in the early stage, market supply will gradually recover, and the tight supply-demand situation will be alleviated to some extent; At the same time, after the high price, downstream purchasing intentions may cool down, and the support from the demand side will weaken. The acetone market in the future will end its unilateral upward trend and is likely to enter a high-level oscillation and supply-demand game stage. The technical double moving average difference may gradually narrow, and the market volatility will intensify. The overall trend is mainly stable, and the upward trend will slow down.