Aluminum prices fluctuated widely in April, with a slight decline. At the beginning of the month, the price fell, but in the middle of the month, it surged sharply due to sudden factors, and then quickly fell back. The closing price at the end of the month fell by about 0.87% compared to the beginning of the month. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 30, 2026, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market was 24403.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.87% from the market average price of 24616.33 yuan/ton on April 1; Compared to the high point of the month (4.19), the market average price was 25173.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.06%
The general logic of aluminum price operation in April is as follows:
At the beginning of the month, there was a downward fluctuation (from April 1st to April 14th):
Weak supply and demand expectations dominate domestic demand, leading to a sluggish peak season and lower than expected destocking. The operating rate of terminal processing enterprises remains low, traditional downstream orders such as real estate and automobiles are weak, and there is a shortage of essential procurement; At the same time, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity continues to be released, and the social inventory shows a trend of accumulating inventory, suppressing spot prices.
The weak US dollar and macroeconomic sentiment have been suppressed. At the beginning of the month, the US dollar index rebounded in stages, coupled with market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates for a longer period of time, putting pressure on the valuation of aluminum products denominated in US dollars. The weak linkage between domestic and foreign markets dragged down domestic spot prices.
Mid month rapid rise (April 15th to April 19th):
The overseas supply shock triggered the market, and the geopolitical disturbance in the Middle East brought about a hard supply gap. Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, and there has been a large-scale shutdown of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the Middle East (accounting for about 55% of the region’s production capacity). LME inventories continue to deplete, overseas spot premiums soar, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets rapidly expands, driving up domestic aluminum prices passively.
The export arbitrage window is open, and domestic goods are flowing out. The structural shortage overseas has pushed up the price of London aluminum, expanding the price difference between domestic and foreign markets to the arbitrage zone. Domestic aluminum ingot export orders have surged, and the spot supply in East China has tightened, supporting a significant increase in prices.
The resonance of financial emotions amplifies the increase. The overseas supply black swan event triggered the influx of speculative funds, and the long positions in the futures market increased, driving the spot market to make up for the rise, forming a “futures cash linkage” upward trend.
3、 Late period surge and fall (April 20th to April 30th):
Concerns about overseas supply have eased marginally, and emotions have receded. The market’s panic over the situation in the Middle East is gradually dissipating, and expectations for the resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz are heating up. London Aluminum has fallen from its high position, the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has narrowed, the export arbitrage window has closed, and pressure for domestic goods to return has emerged.
Re pricing of domestic high inventory and weak demand fundamentals. The domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory is still at a high level, and there has been no substantial improvement in terminal demand. The previous rise lacked fundamental support, and bullish profit taking triggered a price correction.
The strengthening of the US dollar combined with pre holiday fund hedging. The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve has driven the rebound of the US dollar index, putting overall pressure on commodities; Combined with the risk aversion and exit of funds before the May Day holiday, the pace of spot purchases slowed down, and market trading was light. The end of month price fell back to 24403.33 yuan/ton.