As of April 29th, the DOP price was 10050.83 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased by 2.03% compared to the April 1st DOP price of 10259.17 yuan/ton. In April, the domestic DOP market as a whole showed a high volatility and slight decline trend, with prices remaining at the high level of the year. However, due to cost adjustments and weak demand, the upward momentum was insufficient, resulting in a slight weakening during the month.
The crude oil market is transmitted downstream

The crude oil price fluctuated and fell due to the impact of the US Iran ceasefire agreement, leading to a correction in propylene prices, which in turn transmitted to the isooctanol market. In April, the isooctanol price fell from 9582 yuan/ton to 8933 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 6.77%, resulting in weakened cost support for DOP and becoming the main driving force for price correction.
The price of raw material isooctanol fluctuated and fell in April
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 29th, the price of isooctanol was 8866.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.32% compared to the price of 9266.67 yuan/ton on April 1st. Driven by the linkage between crude oil and propylene, as well as changes in supply and demand patterns, coupled with the downward trend of the business and social price moving averages, the isooctanol market has shown a clear downward trend. In April, the isooctanol market presented an overall pattern of “high volatility, first strong and then weak”.
Phthalic anhydride market fluctuates and falls
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 29th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 8966.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.78% compared to the price of 9416.67 yuan/ton on April 1st. The ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Iran have eased the transmission of geopolitical risks downstream, coupled with insufficient demand follow-up, resulting in a significant shift in the focus of phthalic anhydride prices. However, there are many shutdowns and maintenance of raw material benzene enterprises, and the supply of benzene has been severely reduced. The support for the rise in benzene prices still exists, and the space for the decline in phthalic anhydride prices is limited due to cost support.
Supply and demand analysis of DOP market in April
The supply and demand pattern of the DOP market in April showed the characteristics of “supply exceeding demand, weak balance of rigid demand”: supply side production fell but the total amount was sufficient, inventory was high, and exports were limited. Stable demand on the demand side but insufficient new additions, cautious procurement, and weak terminal strength. Overall supply is loose, demand is weak, supply exceeds demand, prices are under pressure at high levels, and are prone to decline but difficult to rise, relying solely on cost and export support.
Supply side: loose supply, inventory pressure
The operating load of DOP equipment in plasticizer enterprises showed a trend of “stabilizing first and then decreasing, with a slight rebound at the end of the month” in April. At the beginning of the month, the industry operating rate was 65% -69%, with mainstream large factories operating at full capacity and stable supply of goods; Mid month profit contraction, weak demand, some enterprises reducing load/maintenance, and operating rate dropping to around 55%; At the end of the month, some devices were restarted, and the operating rate slightly increased to 60%, but still lower than the level at the beginning of the month. Although the construction started to decline in April, the accumulation of inventory in the early stage combined with effective supply resulted in a loose overall supply of goods, and there was no regional shortage. In addition, downstream procurement has slowed down, manufacturers’ inventory continues to rise, and manufacturers’ willingness to lower prices and sell goods has increased, suppressing price rebounds.

Demand side: Stable demand, insufficient new additions, overall weakness
In April, downstream demand was mainly driven by rigid demand, lacking support from new orders. The demand for basic fields such as wire and cable, packaging film, etc. remains stable, and enterprises maintain low replenishment; However, due to the sluggish real estate industry, the demand for PVC pipes, profiles and other end products has shrunk, and some small and medium-sized enterprises in North and East China have experienced parking and holiday situations, further suppressing the demand for DOP; Downstream enterprises have a cautious purchasing mentality and generally adopt a strategy of “not chasing high prices, not hoarding goods, and purchasing as needed”. The market transactions are light, making it difficult to support price increases.
Market Overview and Future Expectations
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in early April, the market was strongly bullish due to the residual momentum of the March surge, with manufacturers raising prices and traders being reluctant to sell; At the end of the month, prices tended to stabilize, and the market entered a wait-and-see state. Downstream restocking was carried out on demand, and overall cautious sentiment dominated the market.
In the future, on the cost side: affected by the aftermath of the Middle East geopolitical situation, crude oil and propylene prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate widely, isooctanol prices may rebound slightly, phthalic anhydride prices are expected to continue, and cost support remains, limiting the downward space for DOP prices. On the supply side, some DOP devices will undergo maintenance and restart in May, and the operating rate is expected to rise to 65%, further easing supply; On the demand side, the downstream PVC industry is still in the maintenance season, and the PVC operating rate is expected to decrease to around 77%. There is no significant improvement in terminal demand, and downstream demand is still dominated by rigid procurement, with a pattern of oversupply continuing. Short term bearish sentiment continues, with traders mainly reducing their holdings at high prices, manufacturers’ willingness to raise prices weakening, and downstream procurement being dominated by overall cautious sentiment, making it difficult to form upward momentum. It is expected that DOP prices will experience a slight fluctuation and decline in the future.