1、 Market Review
This week, the imported 62% white potassium market showed an overall pattern of “high-level stalemate and narrow range consolidation”. The benchmark price of Shengyi Society remained stable at 3550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month, with a daily increase or decrease of 0%. From the trend of the past three months, after experiencing a surge and decline in early March and a sideways consolidation from mid March to mid April, the price once again came under pressure and fell back in late April. As of May 8th, it has fallen to 3550 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 4.1% from the high point of 3700 yuan/ton this year. Currently, it is in the mid to high range of the past year, slightly higher than the annual average of 3496.08 yuan/ton, and there is still 300 yuan/ton of support space from the low point of 3250 yuan/ton this year.
The market price shows a clear differentiation trend: the mainstream price of 62% white potassium at the port is concentrated at 3150-3550 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 30-50 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; The on-site price of domestically produced 60% crystals has increased by 30 yuan/ton simultaneously, reported at 3300-3330 yuan/ton. Part of the scarce supply is driven by traders’ reluctance to sell, and prices continue to decline, with a significant “price but no market” characteristic in the market.
Fundamental influencing factors
1. Supply side: Port inventory has dropped to a historical low of 1.94 million tons, and traders’ available sources of goods remain tight, with some scarce sources experiencing supply disruptions, providing strong support for the market. The pace of supplementing imported new goods is relatively slow. Although the overall import supply is loose, the short-term arrival volume is insufficient, and there is a lack of incremental supply to impact the market. Traders have a strong willingness to raise prices.
2. Demand side: Spring plowing is entering its final stage, and agricultural essential procurement is gradually declining. Terminal procurement is mainly based on on-demand procurement, and market trading activity is limited. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprises are restrained by high raw material prices, and their procurement strategies tend to be cautious. New orders are light, and industrial demand is difficult to effectively drive prices.
Price forecast:
Short term: It is expected that the price will fluctuate within the range of 3500-3650 yuan/ton, with core support at 3500 yuan/ton and pressure at 3650 yuan/ton.
In the short term, supported by low port inventory and high prices from traders, prices are difficult to fall significantly. However, the weak demand side also limits the upward space, and it is likely to maintain a high and narrow range oscillation pattern, making it difficult to see a unilateral trend market. If the port inventory continues to decline, there may be a slight increase in the shortage of goods, but the overall magnitude is limited.
In summary, the current imported potassium chloride market is in a game of supply support and weak demand, and the high-level stalemate pattern is difficult to break in the short term. The subsequent market trend will mainly depend on the pace of imported goods replenishment and the recovery of downstream demand. It is recommended to maintain a cautious and wait-and-see attitude and closely monitor changes in core variables.