In mid to late March, the domestic epoxy propane market showed an upward trend, characterized by a rapid and significant increase, mainly driven by factors such as cost push and supply contraction. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of March 23, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 11466.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 43.33% compared to March 1.
Raw material side: Propylene is the most essential direct raw material for epichlorohydrin. Affected by supply chain disruptions caused by geopolitical conflicts and supported by crude oil costs, propylene prices remain high and firm. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of March 23, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 8574.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 33.74% compared to the beginning of this month (6411.00 yuan/ton).
Supply side: Since mid March, some epoxy propane units in northern regions have experienced fluctuations; Expected maintenance of some PDH devices; The above factors have led to a reduction in the spot circulation of epichlorohydrin and a tightening of market supply. Faced with the dual pressure of cost and supply, epoxy propane production enterprises actively raise their ex factory prices. Taking Binhua Group as an example, on March 23rd, there was a significant increase of 1100 yuan/ton, and the final quotation reached 11600 yuan/ton.
On the demand side: In the second half of March, the soft foam and hard foam polyether markets passively rose with raw materials. As of March 20th, the price of hard foam polyether in North China reached 10000-11000 yuan/ton, but there was little change in the operation of polyether factories, mainly focusing on delivering early orders. With the rapid rise in epoxy propane prices, downstream enterprises have shown obvious resistance to high priced raw materials, resulting in a stalemate in on-site negotiations, limited follow-up on new orders, and increased pressure on some merchants to ship, leading to frequent occurrences of low-priced sources.
Market forecast: Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that the price of propylene on the raw material side will rise, coupled with sudden shutdowns and low load operations of the equipment, exacerbating the shortage of spot goods, and the cost side will still maintain strong support. However, downstream demand has insufficient acceptance of high priced raw materials, weak willingness to chase after high prices, and limited follow-up on new orders. It is expected that the domestic epoxy propane market will remain stable with a moderate to strong consolidation and operation in the near future. The future market trend requires close attention to the restart progress of large-scale facilities such as Sinochem Quanzhou, as well as the actual sustainability of the “rush to export” of polyether.