Since 2026, the overall focus of the natural rubber market has steadily shifted upwards, presenting a game pattern of “weak reality, strong expectations”. As of June 12th, the price of natural rubber in Shengyi Society was 17566 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.50% within the year and 30.53% year-on-year. The current supply-demand structure continues to optimize, coupled with favorable weather cycles, and there is still upward momentum in the price of rubber in the future, but in the short term, it will mainly accumulate momentum through high-level fluctuations. ​
Recently, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States officially confirmed the existence of the El Ni ñ o phenomenon. NOAA’s announcement states that there is a 63% probability that this phenomenon will sharply intensify during the late autumn to early winter period of this year. The risk of severe drought weather is prominent, and the market is expected to suppress the efficiency of rubber cutting in Southeast Asian production areas, providing strong speculation and fundamental support for rubber prices in the second half of the year. At present, the prices of raw materials in Thailand remain high, and the supply of raw materials in the market is tight. As of June 12th, the price of tobacco chips produced in Thailand was 95.00 baht/kg, a synchronous increase of 38.69% compared to the previous year; Glue price is 88.50 Thai baht/kg, up 55.95% year-on-year; The price of cup glue was reported at 74.80 Thai baht/kg, a year-on-year increase of 34.77%.

The resilience of the demand side is sufficient, and the combination of substitution effects forms favorable support. Domestic tire companies maintain stable production, while synthetic rubber prices remain high, compressing the price difference between the two and prompting downstream enterprises to increase the proportion of natural rubber usage, further boosting natural rubber consumption demand. As of June 10th, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has reached around 70%; The construction of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong region has reached about 6.80%. ​
The slight increase in inventory has a certain negative impact on the natural rubber market in the short term. As of June 7, 2026, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 696800 tons, an increase of 0.88% month on month. ​
Market forecast:
From a technical perspective: 1. Price position indicators show that the current positions on 10/20/30 are all low, and the “10 day oversold” signal was triggered on June 8, indicating a clear short-term weakness; However, on the 60/90 day, it remained at a medium high and annual high level, and the medium-term upward trend has not completely broken. 2. The moving average indicator shows that the current price has fallen below the 10 day moving average and is approaching the 20 day moving average. The short-term moving average has turned downward, forming pressure, while the medium-term moving average remains upward. ​
From a fundamental perspective, Southeast Asian production areas will enter the traditional peak production season from June to July. The concentrated launch of new rubber will bring about an increase in supply. Coupled with the temporary off-season in the tire industry, the pace of rubber price increases will slow down, and it is likely to maintain a wide range of fluctuations in the short term. In the medium to long term, with the gradual realization of the El Ni ñ o impact from August to December and the implementation of the production reduction effect, the price of rubber is expected to break through the previous high point. The long-term tight supply-demand balance pattern continues, with rubber prices prone to rise but difficult to fall, and the central market continuing to move upward.