The price of ethylene oxide will decrease in June 2026. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of June 5th, the average market price of epoxyethane in China was 6800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.53% from the market average price of 7600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (6.1).
On June 5, 2026, the mainstream market ex factory listing prices for ethylene oxide in various regions of China were as follows: the ethylene oxide market in East China was priced at 6800 yuan/ton to the outside world; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the South China market is 6700-6800 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in North China is 6650 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the Central China region is 6800-7600 yuan/ton.
Analysis of the reasons for the significant drop in the price of ethylene oxide in June 2026
The significant drop in the price of ethylene oxide in early June 2026 is driven by five logical resonances: cost collapse, supply recovery, off-season demand collapse, high price destocking in the early stage, and macro sentiment.
1、 Cost side: High premium of crude oil+ethylene falls, production cost hard support collapses
70% of the cost of epoxyethane raw materials comes from ethylene, which anchors international crude oil and the Northeast Asian market. The source of this round of sharp decline is the complete clearance of the Middle East geopolitical premium that rose in March. In late May, the United States and Iran reached a framework agreement, and the Middle East conflict cooled down. Brent crude oil quickly fell from $112 per barrel to the range of $85-90 per barrel, ending geopolitical speculation. Crude oil led to a weakening of naphtha and ethane across the board; The CFR ethylene in Northeast Asia fell from $1050/ton in March to $720-750/ton in June, and domestic ethylene spot prices fell from 7700 yuan/ton to around 6200 yuan/ton. The production cost of EO decreased by 1100-1300 yuan per ton, and production enterprises had no cost incentive to raise prices, resulting in a passive decline in listed prices; The long-term low cost of ethane in the United States, coupled with the increasing export volume of ethylene and EO, and the impact of imported arbitrage sources on domestic spot pricing limits, further suppress domestic quotations.
2、 Supply side: Maintenance and partial resumption of production+loose supply in non maintenance areas, overall supply shifting from tight to loose
In June, ethylene oxide showed a pattern of partial maintenance and overall relaxation, offsetting the positive effect of reduced volume brought by maintenance, resulting in an increase in spot circulation and inventory accumulation. The main EO units that underwent centralized maintenance in May resumed production in early June, with a significant increase in supply from the core production areas in East China; Although some individual devices have entered maintenance, the increase in resuming production is greater than the decrease in maintenance, and the overall industry production has increased from 48% in May to around 70% in June; Northwest and North China maintain high loads of EO equipment without maintenance and refining facilities, while export sources continue to move southward to supplement the markets of East and South China. Regional price differences have narrowed, and the overall market supply has become loose; During the high price period from March to April, factory inventory was concentrated and realized in June. Private large companies such as Sinopec and PetroChina continued to lower their factory listing and offer discounts on shipments, leading to a continuous decline in market quotes.
3、 On the demand side, traditional downstream industries have entered a seasonal off-season, and terminal demand has weakened sharply

70% of the downstream EO is used for ethylene glycol, polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomers, and non-ionic surfactants. In June, multiple seasonality and industrial negative factors overlapped, resulting in a decline in downstream production depth and procurement of only small orders as needed, without centralized replenishment. The specific situation is as follows:
1. Polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer (downstream of maximum rigid demand)
The new construction and infrastructure landing of terminal real estate fell short of expectations, and the operating rate of domestic mixed use enterprises decreased by 15% month on month; Combined with the rainy season in the south in June, the suspension of the national middle and high school entrance exams, and the busy farming season in the north, large-scale construction sites have been shut down, and the water reducing agent factory has only started operating by 25.5% (month on month -3.27 pct). The purchase volume of raw material EO has decreased by more than 30% year-on-year.
2. Non ionic surfactants (daily chemical, textile)
The off-season for textiles and daily chemical products has entered the traditional consumption off-season, and the operating rate of surface active factories has dropped to 42.5%. The factories strictly control the inventory of raw materials, avoid the risk of further price decline, observe price pressure, purchase in batches, and the large-scale procurement has basically stagnated.
3. Weakening of ethylene glycol matching
During the off-season for polyester and synthetic fibers, the spot price of ethylene glycol decreased synchronously. The profit of the integrated plant’s self-produced EO was reduced by switching to ethylene glycol, and the sales of EO increased, further increasing the circulation of commodity EO.
4. Buy upstream instead of downstream
The price continues to decline in a cycle, and the entire industry chain is holding onto the currency to observe. Downstream companies are avoiding losses from hoarding goods and are purchasing as needed. The market lacks speculative stocking demand to support the bottom.
4、 The pricing logic of the market has reversed in the early stage, with profit taking orders concentrated and leaving the market
The bullish speculative funds generated by geopolitical conflicts in March and April have gradually withdrawn in May, and pessimistic expectations have spread in June. Traders actively reduced prices and sold spot goods, forming a negative cycle of price reduction → wait-and-see → further price reduction; In the early high price stage, the market was bullish and consistent. After the double negative impact of cost and demand in June, the industry switched directly from “raising prices and being reluctant to sell” to “lowering prices and reducing inventory”. Leading refineries were the first to adjust prices, while small and medium-sized manufacturers passively followed suit.
5、 Macro and industry medium – to long-term overcapacity suppresses rebound space
In recent years, domestic EO has continued to invest in integrated refining and chemical supporting production capacity (Hengli, Shenghong, and Zhejiang Petrochemical have successively implemented supporting production capacity), leading to the normalization of overcapacity in the industry. The production capacity consumption ratio is close to 190%, and the demand increment cannot keep up with the production capacity investment. Prices lack medium – and long-term fundamental support, and the off-season bearish sentiment has amplified the magnitude of the correction.
Future forecast
At present, the rise in the ethylene oxide market is due to geopolitical factors, cost factors, and short-term supply tightening, while the decline is due to geopolitical factors, cost collapse, off-season demand collapse, and supply recovery; The June pullback is the valuation return of the skyrocketing market from March to April. The triple bearish trend of cost breaking first, demand landing in the off-season, and supply shifting from tight to loose is the essence of this deep decline. Short term fluctuations are expected to be mainly weak.