The domestic ethanol price has dropped to 5619 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.84% in the past three months, a month on month decrease of 0.34%, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.81%. Costs are stabilizing, supply and demand fluctuations are limited, ethanol transactions are running smoothly, main production areas are experiencing fluctuations in equipment, and equipment losses are limited. At the demand side, the end consumer market continues to be under pressure and recovery is weak, and downstream purchasing entities have a strong wait-and-see attitude.
On the cost side, the price of corn in Northeast China is stable but slightly weak, and there has been no improvement in the transaction situation. The price of corn in North China shows a narrow range adjustment and local differentiation within the range. The overall inventory of traders is high, and recently some areas have been affected by rainy weather, resulting in weak corn sales and uneven distribution of grain sources. The price center of the corn market in the sales area is slightly weak. The cost of ethanol is influenced by negative factors.

From the supply side, it is difficult to fundamentally improve the overall situation of oversupply in the ethanol industry in the short term. The utilization rate of ethanol production capacity remains at 46.43%, with a decrease in supply and a decrease in the supply of bio fermented ethanol. The supply of ethanol is affected by favorable factors.
On the demand side and downstream side: From the perspective of demand rhythm, this year’s Mid Autumn Festival and National Day overlap, and the pre holiday stocking cycle is expected to start in early September. At that time, downstream fields such as Baijiu, chemical industry and gasoline blending will enter the stage of phased centralized replenishment, which is expected to form a short-term boost to the ethanol market. The demand for ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.
According to future predictions, the maintenance period in the main production areas has ended, terminal demand has improved, and traditional demand is still in the off-season. Currently, the domestic ethanol market still maintains a situation of oversupply. The ethanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the ethanol market situation may mainly consolidate.