From September 1 to September 29, 2026, the domestic mixed xylene market experienced a trend of first rising and then fluctuating at a high level. The monthly average market price increased from 7666.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8470 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a cumulative increase of 10.48% for the whole month. In the first half of the month, prices rapidly rose due to the dual drive of rising crude oil costs and tightening of on-site circulation sources. In the middle half of the month, the international crude oil futures market was under pressure and fell back. In the second half of the month, low port inventories and downstream raw material demand formed support, and prices stopped falling and stabilized. The price center for the whole month rose significantly compared to the previous month.

Cost aspect:
International oil prices remain the core driving force of this month’s market trend. In the first half of the year, the market was concerned about the tightening of crude oil supply, and oil prices continued to strengthen. Naphtha and aromatic hydrocarbons also rose, and the cost support for toluene was sufficient, pushing spot prices upwards; In the second half of the year, the market expects Saudi Arabia’s supply to gradually recover, the upward logic of crude oil to weaken, futures volatility to weaken, cost support to loosen, and the toluene market and spot prices to rebound accordingly. At the end of the second half of the year, the repeated geopolitical situation and the strengthening of crude oil in the night market, coupled with fluctuating cost expectations, have become important external factors causing fluctuations in the market range in the second half of the month. As of mid month, the settlement price of WTI crude oil contracts for November is above $96 per barrel, while Brent contracts for November are above $103 per barrel, indicating that the overall oil price center is still at a high level. As of September 28th, the settlement price of the November WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $92.60 per barrel, and the settlement price of the December Brent crude oil futures contract was $97.83 per barrel.
Mixed xylene originates from the production of refining and reforming units, and international crude oil is the most upstream cost anchor standard in the industry chain. In early September, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East continued to ferment, and the market was concerned about the obstruction of crude oil circulation channels. International crude oil futures strengthened unilaterally, and naphtha and reforming raw materials rose synchronously. Refinery unit production costs continued to rise, and main petrochemical enterprises continuously raised the ex factory listing price of mixed xylene. The cost support of the spot market significantly increased. In the middle and late stages of the year, the market trading logic switched to the expectation of oil supply recovery, and the international oil price rise slowed down and fluctuated within a certain range. The cost side driving force weakened, and the market’s upward momentum synchronously declined.
The PX market within the aromatic hydrocarbon industry chain has significantly strengthened, further raising the overall valuation of the aromatic hydrocarbon sector and indirectly driving up the expected cost of mixed xylene. In September, the domestic ex factory price of PX continued to rise, and the FOB Korean price of PX in the Asian region also rose synchronously. The processing profit of PX units remained within a reasonable range, and the resource allocation on the production side of refineries tilted towards the PX raw material end. The output distribution structure of the reforming unit was adjusted, indirectly lifting the value center of commodity grade mixed xylene. The high-level operation of naphtha and the strong PX sector throughout the month have jointly built a solid cost bottom for mixed xylene, greatly limiting the downward space of the market.

Supply side:
In September, the overall processing load of domestic refining facilities remained high, but the increase in market commodity circulation supply was limited, and the overall supply side showed a structurally tight pattern. The traditional peak season for domestic refined oil consumption has arrived, and the demand for gasoline blending has increased significantly. As a high octane blending component, blended xylene is preferred by most refineries for in-house gasoline blending, and the commodity resources available for external circulation continue to shrink. At the same time, multiple regional restructuring units underwent phased maintenance in the first half of the year, further reducing the amount of spot inventory. The main petrochemical holders had a strong willingness to raise prices, which led to a rapid increase in spot prices in the first half of the year.
The mid-term maintenance and reorganization units have gradually resumed operation, and the theoretical supply of goods in the market has increased. However, due to the rise in external prices, the cost of imported mixed xylene has significantly increased, and the inverted price difference between domestic and foreign markets has led to a low willingness of traders to import goods. The arrival of overseas supplementary goods at the port is less than expected, and the inventory of major liquid chemical storage areas in China has not been effectively accumulated. Although there was a slight increase in the circulation of goods in the market in the latter half of the year, the overall inventory remained in the low range of the year, and the expectation of loose supply of goods did not materialize. The price decline space was locked in by the inventory fundamentals, and the market entered a high range of fluctuations.
Demand side:
This month’s PX trend is significantly stronger than toluene, driving the sentiment of the sector. Sinopec’s PX listing price in September increased by 600 yuan/ton to 9600 yuan/ton. The Asian PX market strengthened synchronously, closing at $1250/ton FOB near South Korea at the end of the month. PX and toluene are located in the downstream aromatic hydrocarbon chain of naphtha. The strong performance of PX not only raises the cost and valuation center of the entire aromatic hydrocarbon sector, but also makes refineries tend to produce more PX and less toluene in terms of disproportionation and isomerization output structure, indirectly tightening the domestic circulation of toluene and echoing the low inventory at ports. However, it should be noted that the strong performance of PX is mainly supported by its own equipment maintenance and PTA demand, and the transmission to toluene terminal consumption is not smooth. There has been no centralized replenishment of toluene downstream as a result.

This month, the downstream demand for mixed xylene showed significant structural differentiation, with the demand for gasoline blending and PX isomeric raw materials forming the core support of the market. The overall demand for coating solvents remained flat. The peak consumption season of Jinjiu refined oil products combined with the increase in gasoline export orders, the demand for high octane aromatic hydrocarbon components in the oil blending end remains stable, and the self use consumption of refineries continues to rise. From the supply side, the market commodity circulation source is tightened, forming an indirect bullish trend; Heterogeneous grade mixed xylene, as the core raw material for PX production, maintained a stable operating load in the PX industry in September. Downstream PX factories resumed normal replenishment, and during the price increase phase, they concentrated on entering the market for procurement, becoming the main bullish force driving up prices. After the high PX prices came under pressure in the latter half of the year, the pace of downstream raw material procurement slowed down synchronously, and bullish buying in the market cooled down accordingly; However, the downstream of traditional solvents such as coatings, inks, adhesives, and diluents is in the off-season of the industry, with insufficient orders for terminal products. The continuous rise in raw materials has greatly compressed the processing profits of small and medium-sized enterprises. Downstream factories have strong resistance to high priced sources of goods, and only maintain on-demand small order replenishment throughout the month, without the release of centralized stocking market, making it difficult to continuously drive the market to strengthen. In terms of the international market, the overseas market for isomeric xylene in Asia has seen a significant increase throughout the month. The concentrated maintenance of overseas refineries and the strong demand for local oil blending have resulted in a continuous shortage of regional spot goods. The price of US dollar goods has continued to rise, and the strong rise of foreign markets has raised domestic import costs, weakening the willingness of traders to import and purchase goods. The overseas oil blending demand has also diverted arbitrage circulation sources, further reducing the potential domestic import supplement volume.
Market forecast:
On the cost side, there are still geopolitical risks in the Middle East, and crude oil is likely to fluctuate at a high level. The bottom support still exists, but the driving force for a significant increase is insufficient. At the same time, the risk of PX high-level pullback is increasing, and the driving effect of xylene valuation may weaken. The supply side reforming unit has started operating steadily, and the demand for gasoline blending has seasonally declined in the future. The proportion of self use by refineries has also decreased, and there is an expected increase in the supply of goods in circulation; It is difficult for external prices to fall rapidly in the short term, and the import window is difficult to open. Low inventory at ports can still provide a bottom line. The demand for oil adjustment on the demand side is gradually weakening, and downstream PX procurement is fluctuating with the market, with limited incremental support. There is currently no sign of recovery in downstream solvents such as coatings and inks, and procurement sentiment remains weak. Overall, the mixed xylene market in October was dominated by high-level fluctuations, with market volatility driven by crude oil, PX trends, and port inventories. The high price above suppresses downstream bulk purchases, while the cost and low inventory below support prices. The probability of a unilateral sharp rise or fall in the market is low, and it is necessary to focus on tracking crude oil geopolitical news, refinery output, and downstream stocking rhythm.