The domestic 1 # lead ingot market has slightly increased, with an average price of 15945 yuan/ton on September 17th and 16275 yuan/ton as of September 24th, an increase of 2.07%.
Fundamental analysis
This week, lead prices have shown a trend of “hitting the bottom, rebounding strongly, and then fluctuating at a high level”. The core logic of fundamentals is the release of pre holiday stocking demand and the transformation of spot goods from weak to strong.
On the supply side, the low lead prices in the early stage squeezed smelting profits, and refineries were reluctant to sell at high prices.
On the demand side, downstream lead-acid batteries are in the peak season of “golden September and silver October”, coupled with the approaching National Day holiday. Battery companies have a strong desire to stock up on essential needs, and their purchasing enthusiasm has significantly increased.
Overall summary
In the short term, cost support and pre holiday replenishment have provided strong support for lead prices, maintaining a bullish technical outlook. However, it is necessary to closely monitor the pullback risk brought by the “30 day super rise”. It is expected that lead prices will mainly fluctuate at a high level next week, and caution should be taken to prevent a sharp rise and fall back.