At the beginning of September, the adipic acid market rebounded, mainly oscillating upwards. On August 1st, the average market price of adipic acid was 8575 yuan/ton, and on September 7th, the average market price of adipic acid was 8900 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.79%.
The main factors affecting the rise and fall of adipic acid market during this stage
Supply side: The overall production of adipic acid industry in China is 78-82%, and the overall operation of the equipment is stable.
International: Ascend Adipic Acid from the United States is force majeure and is expected to gradually recover in mid September, with short-term external market tightening; However, domestic exports were suppressed by EU anti-dumping, and exports to Europe shrank significantly, mainly to Türkiye, India and Southeast Asia. The overall export volume declined significantly year on year.
Inventory: Factory inventory is moderate, social inventory is not high, and there is no obvious accumulation of inventory.
Demand side: PA66: automotive and engineering plastics, with a moderate rebound in production, but no surge in orders. Downstream demand is mostly for immediate use and procurement, with weak willingness to chase price increases. Polyurethane (PU slurry, sole stock solution): Traditional “Golden Nine” is expected to exist, but stocking has not yet been launched on a large scale. It is mainly in demand and is resistant to high priced raw materials. PBAT is biodegradable: with stable demand and no unexpected increase. Summary: There are expectations of peak season, but the reality is a mild recovery, not explosive demand, which is the biggest constraint of this round of market trend.
Cost side: Raw materials such as pure benzene and cyclohexanone are operated under vibration, which provides some cost support; The price difference between acid and benzene has been repaired, and the profits of production enterprises have improved.
In summary, the predicted results of supply and demand indicate that supply pressure has eased, demand is moderate, and the trend of adipic acid weakening is evident in late September. From a technical perspective, it can be seen that the upward momentum of the adipic acid market in late September was insufficient. Therefore, in late September, the overall trend of adipic acid market fluctuated and rose, with an expected price between 8900 yuan/ton and 9200 yuan/ton.