This week, the domestic fluorite price trend has slightly increased. As of the weekend, the average price of fluorite in China was 3637.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.52% from the beginning of the week price of 3618.75 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 10.86%.
Supply side: synchronized tightening of internal and external sources of goods
Domestically, the national inspection of mining safety production has been comprehensively tightened, and many mines are in a state of shutdown and rectification. The domestic circulation of raw ore continues to shrink. Affected by the tightening of national and local mining control policies, Inner Mongolia has a low level of production, while only a few mines in southern Zhejiang and Fujian have resumed work. The resumption time of most mines is yet to be determined, and the overall domestic market supply circulation pattern is tight and difficult to change in the short term. The bargaining power of mining enterprises has increased, and the tight spot situation of fluorite has not changed. The fluorite market trend has risen.
In terms of imports: The mines in Mongolia, the core source of domestic imports, stopped production for maintenance in mid July. Although Mongolia’s import volume has gradually increased recently, the actual inflow in the field is limited due to logistics costs and other restrictions, which only moderately alleviates the supply pressure. The simultaneous tightening of internal and external sources of goods has led to a decrease in spot inventory in the market. Mining companies have a strong mentality of being reluctant to sell and raising prices due to the shortage of sources of goods, resulting in an increase in fluorite prices.
Demand side: downstream multiple favorable resonance
1. The hydrofluoric acid market is rising, and procurement has increased compared to before
The operating rate of hydrofluoric acid enterprises is only about 50%, and most of them suffer from serious losses. Due to the concentrated parking of large northern hydrogen fluoride factories, the industry’s spot supply has significantly shrunk, and the original scattered orders have been diverted to other production enterprises. The supply of scattered spot goods is tight, and the bargaining space has increased. The negotiated price has significantly increased compared to the beginning of the month, and the willingness of enterprises to purchase fluorite continues to rise. The expected consumption of raw material fluorite has increased. In addition, the mainstream contract price rose to 15300-15800 yuan/ton in September, but the demand follow-up was clearly insufficient, and there were signs of capacity utilization shrinking, which limited the increase in domestic fluorite prices.
2. Refrigerant peak season pull
Refrigerants are the main source of demand downstream of fluorite. Since 2026, the prices of major refrigerant varieties such as R32, R125, and R134a have increased by 70% to over 180% compared to the beginning of the year. At present, it is the peak season for air conditioning and cold chain consumption in summer, and downstream factories have taken the initiative to replenish their inventory and demand has increased. The average price of refrigerant R22 continues to rise, driving the enthusiasm of upstream fluorite procurement to increase.
Market forecast: Overall, the rectification of mines on the supply side and the reduction of imports have solidified the price bottom, while the peak season for refrigerants on the demand side, the new AI liquid cooling track, and the expansion of fluorine chemical production capacity have formed multiple driving forces, maintaining a tight supply-demand balance in the market. However, it should be noted that the current downstream demand for anhydrous hydrofluoric acid is insufficient, and the utilization rate of production capacity has shrunk. The supply and demand sides are still in a continuous game, and the price of fluorite market will mainly fluctuate and rise in the later stage.