As of October 14th, the domestic price of isobutyraldehyde was 8233.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.76% from the high price of 8466.67 yuan/ton on October 1st. In October, isobutyraldehyde fell back from a high level, shifting from a strong rally in September to a fluctuating and weakening pattern; The stable operation of the supply side equipment has put pressure on the profit of downstream neopentyl glycol, and the procurement trend is becoming cautious, which belongs to the market of loose supply and weak demand, and the price center is slowly shifting downwards.
Demand side: downstream weakness, obvious purchasing resistance
The largest downstream consumption is neopentyl glycol. The traditional peak season margin of neopentyl glycol downstream is weakening, and the terminal coating orders are average, resulting in compressed profits for neopentyl glycol products. The production of neopentyl glycol plant has been maintained, but it is unable to continuously accept high levels of isobutyraldehyde. Therefore, it has started to purchase at a lower price, using and purchasing as needed, and reducing raw material stocking. The price of neopentyl glycol remains stagnant at a high level, which in turn suppresses the upper limit of isobutyraldehyde prices.
Supply side: The device operates stably and has a high proportion of self use
The isobutyraldehyde supporting butanol and octanol unit has stable operation in the domestic main unit, and there is no long-term shutdown maintenance plan in October. The industry’s operating rate remains at a high level, and the output of commodity volume is stable. Isobutyraldehyde is mostly co produced by butanol and octanol units, and enterprises prioritize supporting self use, with surplus sold externally; The elasticity of the quantity of goods sold outside is not significant, and the release of external sales sources this month is stable, with no obvious shortage of supply. The daily production of isobutyraldehyde far exceeds the consumption, and there is a surplus of about 150-200 tons in the spot market every day. If there is no transaction digestion, it will continue to accumulate as inventory pressure. In addition, the expected production of Wanhua Chemical’s new production capacity in Penglai has also suppressed market sentiment.
Market Overview and Forecast
Analysts believe that the isobutyraldehyde market was in a game pattern of cost support and weak demand in October, and the isobutyraldehyde market fell from a high level in October. The price of isobutyraldehyde is at a high level in a one-year cycle, with limited upward potential and a high risk of falling back from the high level; In addition, with the continued weak demand, the expectation of Wanhua Penglai’s new production capacity is suppressing market sentiment, and it is expected that the isobutyraldehyde market will be weak in the future. There is still room for manufacturers to lower their quotes, and actual order negotiations will continue to offer discounts, so the probability of a sharp decline is not high.