Recently, lithium carbonate has shown a roller coaster trend, with prices rising from 160000 yuan/ton on June 7th to 172000 yuan/ton on June 12th, and then falling to 166000 yuan/ton this weekend.

Demand side: Downstream demand continues to thrive, providing solid support
Statistics show that the production schedule of top battery companies increased by 5-10% month on month in July. The shipment volume of battery cell factories with a high proportion of energy storage business in the second quarter increased by 30% compared to the first quarter. The continuous prosperity of downstream terminal demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage markets provides a solid demand base for lithium prices.
Supply side: superposition of multiple disturbances at home and abroad
Domestically: On June 18th, market news reported that the supporting annual production of 40000 tons of lithium carbonate project for the Jijiaoshan lithium mine in Linwu, Hunan Province, by Dazhong Mining was officially ignited. Qinghai Salt Lake has entered a period of abundant water, with seasonal increases in production. The pre-approval and site selection opinion letter for the Ningde Times Jianxiawo Lithium Mine project has been cancelled. Both negative and positive factors coexist.
Overseas: Industry calculations show that the arrival of lithium mines in Zimbabwe in July will return to normal levels, with a monthly supply of 20000 to 25000 tons, becoming the most important source of domestic lithium raw material growth in the third quarter. Mali and the Democratic Republic of Congo, lithium rich countries, continue to experience unrest and terrorist attacks, posing potential risks.
Policy side: Key mineral legislation landing, reshaping the long-term pricing logic of lithium resources
On June 15th, the Implementation Regulations of the Mineral Resources Law of the People’s Republic of China officially came into effect, becoming the core policy catalyst for the sharp rise in the rare metal sector and the expected increase in lithium prices in this round. This regulation, for the first time in the form of administrative regulations, explicitly includes a total of 36 types of minerals such as lithium, rare earths, cobalt, nickel, etc. in the national strategic mineral resources catalog. The emergency supply guarantee system for lithium resources is further improved, and the purely market-oriented pricing logic for supply and demand is gradually weakening.
Market forecast:
The upward signal is about to appear, and lithium carbonate may rebound and rise. Combined with the current volatile situation, it is expected to fluctuate and rise in the short term. Specific changes in market supply and demand still need to be monitored.