In the second half of March, the price of dimethyl carbonate continued to rise and then fluctuated at a high level. At the end of the month, it quickly fell back, forming a two-way pull between cost support and demand drag.
3.16-3.23: Prices slowly rise, maintaining narrow consolidation, and the market is in a high wait-and-see state. On the 23rd, it quickly surged to a monthly peak of 4866 yuan/ton, an increase of 29.33% from the beginning of the month. Supported by equipment maintenance and strong raw materials, the willingness of enterprises to raise prices reached its peak.
3.23-3.30: Prices enter a high volatility range, downstream purchases are cautious, and transactions are weak. At the end of the month, there was a significant drop, and the effect of high prices suppressing demand was concentrated.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 30th, the average price of industrial grade dimethyl carbonate in China was 4633 yuan/ton, a cumulative decrease of 2.47% in half a month, and an increase of 23.56% compared to early March.
driving factors
Cost increase is the core driving force
The prices of raw materials methanol and epichlorohydrin increased significantly in March, with methanol rising by over 55% and epichlorohydrin rising by over 58%, according to data from Shengyi Society. The rigid bottom support of costs drove up prices. However, in late March, the price of dimethyl carbonate remained weak and fluctuated at a high level, reflecting that companies are still raising prices under cost pressure, but downstream demand has limited ability to bear high prices.
Demand side differentiation restricts the transmission of price increases
Downstream industries such as electrolytes and polycarbonate have low operating loads, and high prices suppress procurement enthusiasm. Enterprises generally adopt a strategy of “purchasing based on sales and following up on small orders”, and the replenishment of essential inventory has been basically completed. Market transactions continue to be sluggish. Resulting in a significantly lower increase in dimethyl carbonate compared to the raw material side, presenting a game pattern of “strong cost push and weak demand connection”.
Tighten the supply end first and then loosen it
In the early stage, multiple major domestic equipment underwent continuous maintenance, resulting in a tight supply of goods in the market and a strong willingness of enterprises to raise prices. Part of the maintenance equipment is scheduled to restart in the latter half of the year, and market expectations for increased supply in the later period are heating up, suppressing price trends.
Future prospects
The dimethyl carbonate market maintains a high volatility under cost support, but weak demand restricts the room for price increases. In the short term, the market is mainly characterized by “high-level stalemate and narrow fluctuations”, with two core concerns: first, whether the prices of upstream methanol and epichlorohydrin will rebound. If the raw materials weaken, the downward space for dimethyl carbonate will be further opened up; The second is the resumption progress of maintenance equipment. If the supply is quickly restored, the price may continue to decline. If there is still no significant improvement in downstream demand, the price center of dimethyl carbonate may shift downwards, and the short-term rebound momentum will be insufficient.