Domestic cobalt prices picked up this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic cobalt price fell first and then rose this week, and the cobalt Market resumed its upward trend. As of September 13, the cobalt price was 379666.66 yuan / ton, up from 375666.66 yuan / ton on September 6, the beginning of last week, and the cobalt price increased by 1.06%; Compared with the cobalt price of 369000.00 yuan / ton on September 1, it increased by 2.89%.

Monthly sales of new energy vehicles increased significantly

According to the latest data released by China Automobile Association, in August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 309000 and 321000 respectively, an increase of 1.8 times year-on-year. In August, the production and sales of new energy continued to set a new record. In August, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased to 17.8%, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles is close to 20%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles have doubled, the market of new energy vehicles has risen, the penetration of new energy vehicles has accelerated, the new energy vehicle industry has taken off, and the future demand of cobalt market has risen sharply.

According to the data released by China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance, in terms of output, in August 2021, the output of ternary battery was 8.4gwh, accounting for 42.9% of the total output, with a year-on-year increase of 91.5% and a month on month increase of 4.8%; The output of lithium iron phosphate battery was 11.1gwh, accounting for 56.9% of the total output, with a year-on-year increase of 268.2% and a month on month increase of 18.8%. In terms of loading volume, in August 2021, a total of 5.3gwh of ternary batteries were loaded, with a year-on-year increase of 51.9% and a month on month decrease of 2.1%; Lithium iron phosphate batteries were loaded with a total of 7.2gwh, a year-on-year increase of 361.8% and a month on month increase of 24.4%. The output of ternary battery rises slowly, the demand for cobalt rises, the installed capacity of ternary battery declines month on month, the demand growth of cobalt market is slow, and the room for cobalt price rise is limited.

International cobalt prices resume rising

As can be seen from the data released by LME market, LME cobalt price resumed rising this week, the international cobalt market recovered, and the rising power of domestic cobalt market increased.

According to the data released by Experian, from January to July 2021, the registration of zero emission vehicles in the United States rose to 255393 from 119628 in the same period last year. The registered volume of electric vehicles accounted for 2.6% of the total registered volume, higher than 1.6% in the same period last year. The registration of electric vehicles in the United States has more than doubled, the sales of electric vehicles have doubled, and the demand of cobalt market has increased.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at the business agency, believes that from the sales data of new energy vehicles, it can be seen that the production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles doubled year-on-year in August, and also rose sharply month on month. New energy vehicles have entered the outbreak period. The registration of electric vehicles in the United States doubled from January to July, and electric vehicles have become the first choice for more and more people to buy cars. The rise in the production and sales of electric vehicles stimulated the rise of cobalt market. However, the installed capacity of ternary batteries declined, the growth of cobalt demand was insufficient, and the room for cobalt price rise was limited. It is expected that the shock of cobalt price will stabilize in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business society, the average quotation of EPS ordinary materials at the beginning of this week was 10450 yuan / ton, and the average price of EPS ordinary materials at the weekend was 10625 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 1.67% and 32.81% compared with the same period of the year.

2、 Market analysis

At present, the domestic EPS price has risen sharply. Boosted by the shutdown news of Zhejiang Petrochemical, coupled with the good support of pure benzene, styrene futures and spot stocks strengthened significantly. The cost side support is obvious, the EPS market negotiation atmosphere is obviously active, the speculative demand is obvious, and the market turnover is large. However, the market turnover weakened on Thursday and the overall turnover increased month on month during the week.

As of September 9, Jiangsu ordinary materials were 10400 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 400 yuan / ton, or 4%, and resistance fuel was 11000 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 400 yuan / ton, or 3.77%.

3、 Future forecast

Zhejiang Petrochemical plant has become a key factor for fundamental transformation. It is expected that the domestic production will increase slightly, and the downstream demand has not recovered significantly. It is expected that the EPS market will be restrained first and then increased next week.

This week (8.30-9.3), the market price of nitrile rubber rose. According to the monitoring of business society, as of September 3, the price of nitrile rubber was 23900 yuan / ton, up 2.87% from 23233 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

The ex factory price of domestic nitrile rubber is stable. According to the monitoring of business society, Lanzhou Petrochemical reported 20800 yuan / ton of nitrile n41e as of September 3; RMB 21900 / T for 3305e; Ningbo shunze 65000 T / a unit operates normally. The ex factory price of nitrile 3355 / 3365 is 22000 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of 3380 is 23000 yuan / ton. Some manufacturers control orders, the market supply is tight, traders are reluctant to sell, and the market offer rose. This week, the downstream rubber products industry started stably, and the demand for nitrile rubber was rigidly supported.

The raw material butadiene fell sharply, and the cost was short of the impact of nitrile rubber. According to the monitoring of business society, as of September 3, the price of butadiene was 9938 yuan / ton, down 7.10% from 10698 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

Future forecast: NBR analysts of business society believe that although the cost is bad, the market supply is relatively tight, and there is still rigid support for demand. It is expected that the high level of NBR market will be strong in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the domestic market price of maleic anhydride rose this week. As of September 5, the average price of maleic anhydride by benzene hydrogenation remained at 12000.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.98% over the average price of 11766.67 yuan / ton on August 30, and an increase of 6.19% over the same period last month.

On September 5, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 113.04, unchanged from yesterday, down 8.60% from the highest point of 123.67 in the cycle (December 26, 2017), and up 120.87% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The domestic benzene maleic anhydride market started upward this week, and concentrated construction was started in Shanxi in early September. International crude oil rose and domestic chemical prices rose; The operating rate of unsaturated resin in the downstream is basically stable. The resin market is dominated by weak consolidation and just need procurement. As of the 5th, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 11800 yuan / ton, the liquid anhydride in Jiangsu was about 12000 yuan / ton, the solid anhydride in Shanxi was about 12000 yuan / ton, the solid anhydride in Hebei was about 12000 yuan / ton, and the solid anhydride in South China was about 12300 yuan / ton.

Upstream, the price of pure benzene rose this week, with an average price of 7700 yuan / ton on September 5 and 7580 yuan / ton on August 30, up 120 yuan / ton, or 1.58%. This week, the market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong rose, with an average price of 7660 yuan / ton on September 5 and 7540 yuan / ton on August 30, up 120 yuan / ton, or 1.59%. At present, the fundamentals are well supported by pure benzene, and the downstream demand has picked up to a certain extent. However, at present, the cost pressure of hydrogenated benzene is large, and the start-up of enterprises is reduced. The price of n-butane fell, and the price in Shandong was 5200 yuan / ton.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 35th week of 2021 (8.30-9.3), there are 42 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical sector, including 10 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 10.2% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were lithium hydroxide (11.39%), phosphate rock (11.24%) and polymerized MDI (8.23%). A total of 26 commodities decreased month on month, and 4 commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 4.1% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were butanone (- 10.47%), butadiene (- 7.10%) and ammonium chloride (- 6.48%). The average rise and fall this week was 0.72%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of maleic anhydride products of business society believe that at present, the supply of domestic maleic anhydride market is limited, some factories are pre sold to late September, the supply of upstream hydrogenated benzene is reduced, and the downstream resin market just needs to be purchased. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may fluctuate at a high level in the near future

Crude oil remained mainly in a narrow range, with no obvious positive support for Fundamentals, and its short-term boost to the asphalt market was limited. According to the monitoring data of business agency, from August 30 to September 6, the average spot price of domestic asphalt fell from 3393 yuan / ton to 3376 yuan / ton. During the cycle, the price fell by 0.49%, the price fell by 1.07% month on month, and the year-on-year increase was 32.81%.

From the supply side, qilingnan, the main production area in Shandong, has stable production, driving the increase of construction in the area. The recent rainy weather, the overall shipment situation is general, and the factory and warehouse continue to increase; On the demand side, due to the impact of environmental protection inspection in some areas recently, the progress of terminal projects has slowed down, and most operators mainly purchase on demand.

On the supply side, the overall supply has not changed significantly yet and remains stable; From the demand side, rainfall in some areas has a certain obstacle to rigid demand, and it is difficult to have a better expectation of actual demand. Asphalt analysts of business society expect that the domestic asphalt spot market will still be mainly sorted out in the near future.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of September 3, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in the mainstream areas of China was around 626 / ton. Compared with the price on September 1 (the reference average price of phosphorus ore was 563 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 63 yuan / ton, or 11.24%.

In the first week of September, the phosphorus ore market in many regions in China rose sharply again. The main reason for the rise was that there was a shortage of phosphorus ore in stock in mines. In some mines in Guizhou, medium and high-grade phosphorus ore was out of stock. It was only supplied to contract users and no new orders were received. The prices of other mines with tight goods began to rise at the beginning of the week. This increase was large, In Guizhou, the quotation of 30% grade phosphorus ore truck board rose to 570-600 yuan / ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphorus ore basically exceeded 500 yuan / ton, with the quotation around 500-530 yuan / ton. The market situation of phosphorus ore in Hebei also increased greatly. The ex factory price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in Hebei Fanshan Phosphate rock group rose to 700 yuan / ton, which increased by 50 yuan / ton compared with the end of August. The phosphate ore market in Guangxi has also increased, with a range of 20-30 yuan / ton, of which the quotation of 30% grade phosphate rock freight plant is 560-580 yuan / ton and that of 28% grade phosphate rock freight plant is 490-520 yuan / ton. At present, as of September 3 at the weekend, the domestic phosphorus ore market has maintained a high and stable operation after rising.

According to the business agency, the following is the current price of phosphate rock in some parts of China (for reference only)

product region grade Price remarks

Phosphate rock Guizhou 30% 570-600 yuan / ton Plate price

Phosphate rock Guizhou 28% 500-530 yuan / ton Factory price

Ammonium phosphate ore Hubei 28% 600-620 yuan / ton Ship board price

Phosphate rock Guangxi 30% 560-580 yuan / ton Factory price

Phosphate rock Guangxi 28% 490-520 yuan / ton Factory price

Downstream yellow phosphorus, at present, entering September, the domestic yellow phosphorus market is running upward, and the spot price continues to rise. At present, the market transaction reference is 28000-28500 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business society, the reference price of yellow phosphorus is 28833 yuan / ton as of September 3, up 0.29% compared with September 1 (28750 yuan / ton), and 8.12% compared with early August.

As for downstream phosphoric acid, in September, the domestic phosphoric acid market was running smoothly as a whole, and many operators were watching the market. According to the monitoring data of business society, as of September 3, the domestic reference price of phosphoric acid was 7650 yuan / ton, an increase of 12.22% compared with September 1 and early August.

Forecast and analysis of future trend of phosphate rock

At present, the supply of phosphorus ore market remains tight. After the rise of on-site mining enterprises, they continue to wait and see the market. Phosphorus ore analysts of business society believe that China’s phosphorus ore market will continue to operate at a high level in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 3300 yuan / ton on August 1 and 3550 yuan / ton on August 31. The price of monoammonium phosphate increased by 7.58% this month.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 3450 yuan / ton on August 1, and 3605 yuan / ton on August 31. The price of diammonium phosphate increased by 4.49% this month.

2、 Market analysis

In August, monoammonium phosphate rose first and then fell. In the first half of August, due to better demand, the price of monoammonium phosphate began to rise, and the operating rate of the enterprise was about 70%. The price of monoammonium phosphate is still high, supported by the price of raw materials, and the downstream is purchased on demand. Some enterprises have stopped production for maintenance. In the second half of August, the trading began to be stable, the atmosphere in the venue was flat, and the waiting volume of enterprises decreased. Due to the rising price of raw sulfur, the price of monoammonium phosphate is always at a high level. At the end of August, the price of monoammonium phosphate fell, and the operating rate of the enterprise was about 66%. The trend of monoammonium phosphate is weak. Although the rise of raw material price is supported, the downstream compound fertilizer is weak and the procurement is reduced. By the end of the month, the factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in China was about 3550-3650 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of 58% powdered ammonium is about 3800 yuan / ton.

In August, diammonium phosphate rose first and then fell. In the first half of August, the enterprise had a large waiting volume, tight supply, good downstream demand, and the price of diammonium phosphate increased. In the second half of August, the domestic supply was tight, the orders were mainly export, and the price of diammonium phosphate was stable. At the end of the month, the waiting volume of enterprises was still large, the supply was insufficient, and the price of diammonium phosphate was reduced. The price of raw materials rose and the cost support was strong. Take goods on demand in the downstream and take a wait-and-see attitude. By the end of the month, the factory quotation of 64% mainstream diammonium in Hubei was 3550-3650 yuan / ton, and that of 64% mainstream diammonium in North China was 3400-3500 yuan / ton.

Raw phosphate rock rose by 2.42% in August. At the end of the month, the reference average price in the mainstream areas of 30% grade phosphorus ore in China was around 563 yuan / ton, and the price increased by 13 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month. In the first ten days of August, the market as a whole operated stably at a high level, the operating rate of the mine was low, the spot supply of medium and high-end phosphorus ore was tight, and most orders were from old customers. In late August, the domestic phosphate ore market closed to the high end again, and some mining enterprises in Guizhou raised the price of medium and high-end phosphate ore again.

3、 Future forecast

According to the ammonium phosphate analysts of the business society, the current ammonium phosphate market transaction is flat, the raw material price rises, and the cost is supported. At present, the number of orders to be issued is reduced, and the market trend is gradually weak. Due to the poor price of urea, the trend of compound fertilizer is weak, and the demand for ammonium phosphate is reduced. It is expected that the trend of ammonium phosphate will remain weak next month, and the trend may run downward.

The domestic epoxy resin market rose sharply in August, mainly due to cost support, especially from bisphenol a market. According to the monitoring data of business society, the offer of liquid epoxy resin Market in East China was 32366 yuan / ton on August 1, 35666 yuan / ton on August 31, and 3300 yuan / ton in August, with an overall increase of 10.2%. At present, the offer of liquid epoxy resin Market in East China is 35500-35700 yuan / ton barrel ex factory price, and the offer of solid resin Market in Huangshan is more than 30000 yuan / ton, The market offer in Shandong is 30000 yuan / ton.

On the one hand, the prices of bisphenol A and epichlorohydrin are high. In August, the bisphenol a market rose first and then consolidated at a high level. According to the monitoring data of the business society, the East China market was quoted at 25240 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and the East China market rose to 28040 yuan / ton at the end of the month, which is still far from the expected 30000 yuan. It can be seen from the market trend of bisphenol A in East China that the market tends to be stable after several days of bisphenol a rising in August, Up to now, in the national market, the negotiation range is 28000-28200 yuan / ton, and there are fewer and fewer cargo holders near the end of the month. Under the situation of tight market supply, there are few market transactions, and the downstream just needs to supplement the high price bisphenol A.

In August, the epichlorohydrin market fluctuated and the overall trend rose. According to the bulk list data of business society, as of August 31, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 14400 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.33% compared with the price at the beginning of the month, and a year-on-year increase of 6.93% in a three-month cycle. At the beginning of the month, the market situation of epichlorohydrin was mainly rising, the demand for inventory and replenishment in the downstream was positive, the factory delivered orders, the spot supply was tight, the manufacturers supported the market, and the focus of market negotiation gradually increased. With the centralized replenishment in the downstream, the pace of market trading slowed down, coupled with the news of the restart of some parking devices, the wait-and-see mentality in the downstream dominated, and the transaction atmosphere was weak, The focus of market negotiation decreased. In the second half of the month, the price of raw glycerol was high, and the market stopped falling and rebounded due to the news of accidental shutdown of large factories in the region. In the latter half of the year, the price of glycerol goods was tight, the cost support was strong, the manufacturers mainly delivered orders, the spot supply was tight, and the downstream just needed to purchase, which pushed up the market.

At present, the downstream is relatively exclusive of high price goods, mainly consuming early orders, and there is an obvious shortage of new orders and insufficient actual orders.

From the perspective of business society, the cost is strongly supported. Under the continuous shortage of bisphenol a supply, it may continue to operate at a high level in the short term, epichlorohydrin is steadily promoted, and epoxy resin operates at a high level in the short term under the cost support; The business agency expects that the epoxy resin market will be sorted and operated in a short period, and the offer of liquid epoxy resin in East China is 35500 yuan / ton barrel ex factory price.

Recent price trend of potassium chloride

As can be seen from the above figure, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride in Qinghai has been temporarily stable recently, and the quotation is 3210 yuan / ton. After the national competent authorities interviewed the fertilizer enterprises, the domestic potassium chloride was temporarily stable, and the prices of some products were corrected.

Domestic potassium: the potassium chloride plant in Qinghai Salt Lake operates normally, and the potassium chloride still continues the previous quotation. The first arrival quotation of 60% powder and crystal is 3270 yuan / ton. At present, the sales price of market traders is mostly about 3300-3500 yuan / ton, which is 500-600 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the month. The factory price of 57% powder from Qinghai small factory is about 2700 yuan / ton, down about 400 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month. At present, the sales price of market traders is mostly about 2900 yuan / ton.

Port potassium: sporadic arrival at the port. At the end of the month, the price of 62% white potassium at the port is about 3800 yuan / ton, which is 300-450 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the month. The quotation of 60% red potassium at the port is 3800-3850 yuan / ton.

In terms of border trade potassium: the volume of border trade goods is small. At present, 62% of the price of white potassium in border trade has not been clearly quoted. Traders are studying the import orders in September. If the foreign quotation is too high, the import may be suspended.

The supply is fair and the demand is average

In August, domestic potassium plants started one after another, and salt lake and zangge started normally. The epidemic situation has slowed down and the shipment is OK. The amount of potassium chloride stored in the port was about 2.2 million tons, which changed little in August. Average demand. In the off-season of agricultural demand, there is less agricultural demand, and the industry pays more attention to winter storage information.

Import and export

Import: from January to July, China imported 5.068 million tons of potassium chloride, a year-on-year increase of 7.88%; Among them, the import of potassium chloride in July was 541300 tons, a month on month increase of 10.79% compared with 488600 tons in June, and a year-on-year decrease of 36.24% compared with the same period last year. Export: from January to July, China’s export of potassium chloride was 189100 tons, an increase of 55.13% over the same period last year. In July, China’s export of potassium chloride was 20600 tons, an increase of 74.58% over the same period last year.

International prices may still rise in the later stage

In early September, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may decline slightly. At present, the domestic supply is sufficient and the demand is general. However, the price increase in the international market is large, and the domestic price may still rebound in the later stage, but the increase is small. Potassium chloride analysts of business society believe that the domestic price of potassium chloride may decline slightly in the short term, focusing on the international market and arrival in Hong Kong.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of August 27, the average price of domestic power type high-grade lithium iron phosphate was 53000.00 yuan / ton. This week, the market price of lithium iron phosphate increased slightly, the focus of negotiation was high, the supply and demand was balanced, the downstream just needed procurement, and the transaction atmosphere was cautious.

This week, the lithium iron phosphate Market is dominant in a narrow range, the upstream cost support is strong, all the way up, the rise is not reduced, the negotiation focus is high, lithium iron phosphate keeps pace, the narrow range up, and the transaction atmosphere is strong. At present, the mainstream quotation range of lithium iron phosphate power type is 52000-56000 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of energy storage type lithium iron phosphate is 47000-50000 yuan / ton. The lithium iron phosphate Market is mainly stable, Stable, medium and strong operation in the short term.

The upstream lithium carbonate remained at a high level and the transaction atmosphere was positive. The average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 111600 yuan / ton, up 26.82% from the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial carbon in East China was 88000 yuan / ton on August 1). Until the 26th, the comprehensive price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 103000-122000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 108000-126000 yuan / ton.

Analysts of lithium iron phosphate in business society believe that lithium iron phosphate is expected to operate stably in the short term（ If you want to get more information about goods and master the price of goods, you can subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community.