1、 Price trend
According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of pure benzene fell first and then rose this week. On May 6, the price of pure benzene was 8650-8900 yuan / ton (average price 8750 yuan / ton). On Friday (May 13), the price of pure benzene was 8500-9100 yuan / ton (average price 8940 yuan / ton). The average price increased by 190 yuan / ton, or 2.17%, and 8.63% over the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and comment
Crude oil market plummeted half a week ago due to the decline in the center of gravity of pure benzene. Affected by the impact of low-cost hydrogenated benzene in Shandong, enterprises generally take goods, and the price has fallen continuously. In the second half of the week, with the rebound of crude oil and the wide rise of Asian pure benzene, the cost support strengthened, and the center of gravity of pure benzene rebounded. Due to the decline of Sinopec’s output and the continuous decline of East China port inventory to about 97000 tons, the supply of pure benzene is expected to be tight, and the price of main refineries is rising. Shandong was supported to rise, but the increase was limited.
This week, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene by 150 yuan / ton to 9100 yuan / ton. The overall output of SINOPEC enterprises decreased and the price was strong.
In terms of external trading, Asian pure benzene rebounded broadly after falling this week. On Thursday (May 12), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was US $1222 / ton, with a year-on-year price increase of US $51 / ton, or 4.36%; The reference import price in East China was US $1242 / T, with a year-on-year increase of US $47 / T or 3.93%.
In terms of crude oil, crude oil rose after a wide decline this week, and the market fluctuated left and right under the fundamentals of good supply and bad demand. As of May 13, Brent fell 0.84 USD / barrel, or 0.75%; WTI rose $0.72/barrel, or 0.66%.
Downstream: styrene: styrene fell first and then rose this week. The price was 10033.33 yuan / ton on May 6 and 9975 yuan / ton on May 13, down 0.58% from last week and 2.21% from the same period last year.
Aniline: domestic aniline is stable and small this week. On May 13, the price in Shandong was 10400-10800 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 10600-10800 yuan / ton, which is the same as that of last week and 7.29% lower than that of the same period last year.
3、 Future forecast
In terms of crude oil, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is full of uncertainty, and the fear of tightening oil supply remains unabated. However, high oil prices are bad for the economy and demand, and there is still a risk of violent fluctuations in short-term crude oil. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, OPEC + decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.
Affected by the US gold market, it is expected that the high level of pure benzene in Asia will be strong in the short term. Domestically, the arrival of pure benzene in the later stage is still small, the port inventory may continue to decline, and the price of pure benzene in East China remains relatively high. The lower reaches of Shandong Province prefer to purchase low-cost hydrogenated benzene, which drags down the pure benzene market and has a price difference with East China. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil and external price trend, domestic logistics and transportation, and the dynamics of pure benzene and downstream devices on the price of pure benzene.