In June 2026, the domestic toluene market as a whole showed a volatile downward trend. Looking at the domestic toluene market situation throughout June, the market as a whole was in an operating environment dominated by negative factors, and the overall market trend showed a volatile downward trend. The price center continued to shift downwards throughout the month. The market trend this month is mainly driven by three core factors: weak costs, sufficient supply, and weak demand. The decline in upstream raw material prices continues to weaken the bottom support of the market, and the continuous increase in on-site supply has led to increasing pressure on the supply side. Coupled with the continuous drag of traditional off-season demand downstream, the market lacks upward driving force under the combination of multiple negative factors. According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic market price of toluene was 6581 yuan/ton on June 1st, and fell to 5727.67 yuan/ton on June 29th, with a cumulative price reduction of 12.97% during the period.

Cost aspect:
In June, the overall support for the cost of toluene in China was insufficient, and the trend continued to be weak. The international crude oil market fluctuated and fell within the month, accompanied by a synchronous decline in Asian naphtha prices. The decline in raw material prices greatly reduced the production pressure on refining enterprises. The overall production cost of toluene decreased compared to the previous month, and the industry’s production profit margin remained stable. At the cost level, there was a lack of strong incentives to drive market prices upwards, making it difficult to effectively support the spot market. As of June 26th, the settlement price of the August contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.23 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September is $72.60 per barrel.
Supply side:
This month, major refining and aromatic hydrocarbon production facilities in China have been operating smoothly, with overall operating conditions remaining relatively high. The shipment volume of domestically produced toluene sources in the field has remained stable. At the same time, the normal arrival and storage of imported goods from foreign trade has further enriched the supply of goods in various markets. The inventory of goods in mainstream storage areas is gradually increasing, and the market circulation of goods is very sufficient. The overall market supply of goods is relatively loose, which has suppressed the toluene market.
Demand side:
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the mainstream factory price was around 8800-8900 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and dropped to around 7500-7600 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The downstream PTA and polyester terminals were already in the off-season, and coupled with the continuous weakening of PX prices, the purchasing mentality became more cautious, and the indirect demand for toluene also weakened, making it difficult for the overall demand side to improve.
International market: The overall decline in Asian PX trading in June was significant, with FOB South Korea at $1114-1116/ton and CFR China at $1135-1137/ton at the beginning of the month. However, due to the weakening of crude oil in the middle of the month, FOB South Korea fell to $959-961/ton and CFR China at $980-982/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decline of over $150/ton.
In June, we entered the off-season for traditional chemical consumption, coupled with hot and rainy weather in many places. The production and operation of downstream solvent industries such as coatings, inks, and adhesives slowed down, and the actual demand for materials significantly decreased. In addition, procurement in related fields such as gasoline blending and fine chemicals is also relatively flat. Downstream manufacturers generally purchase as much as they need, and dare not stock up in large quantities. The market is mostly filled with small amounts of essential goods, and the overall trading atmosphere is quiet, with average performance in actual terminal demand.

Market forecast:
Overall, in June, the toluene market was affected by weakened costs, abundant supply, sluggish terminal demand, and a downward trend in the PX market in the industrial chain. The market fundamentals were weak, and the trading atmosphere on the exchange was flat. Merchants mainly operated with caution and observation. Based on the current market situation and comprehensive judgment, it is expected that the domestic toluene market will continue to maintain a weak consolidation pattern in July, and it is difficult for the market to usher in a significant upward trend. In the short term, there is no sign of strength in crude oil and naphtha, and the cost side still lacks effective support. Domestic production enterprises have stable equipment operation, and the pattern of loose market supply is difficult to change. In addition, the off-season of various downstream industries has not yet ended, and the overall market situation of the aromatic hydrocarbon industry chain is still under pressure. The weak supply and demand situation in the market will continue, and prices are likely to remain low with slight fluctuations. The future market trend will focus on the fluctuation of international crude oil prices and the actual situation of downstream terminal industries starting to recover.