According to data released Monday by the International Aluminum Industry Association (IAI), global raw aluminium production increased by 73,000 tons to 2.208 million tons in December, 17,000 tons less than in December 2017.

China’s primary aluminium production in December is expected to be 3.143 million tons, higher than the revised 30.42 million tons in November.

Price Trend

According to the business community urea price monitoring, this week the domestic urea market quotation slightly rebounded, the market purchases on demand. At the beginning of the week, the mainstream ex-factory quotation in the domestic urea market was 1900 yuan/ton. At the weekend, the mainstream ex-factory quotation in the domestic urea market rose to 1907 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.39%.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the domestic urea market prices rose slightly, and the plant was partly overhauled. At present, the mainstream of Shandong has begun to rise slightly, with some manufacturers quoting 1870-1920 yuan/ton and Anhui manufacturers quoting 1920-1940 yuan/ton. The overall trading atmosphere of the market has been reduced. Recently, the domestic environment protection inspection atmosphere has eased, coal shortage after heating, many urea enterprises are limited by gas, high price gas and so on, which results in high cost pressure. Some enterprises are forced to limit or stop production, which also results in the decline of start-up and poor performance in demand. The overall industry start-up rate of domestic compound fertilizer enterprises remains low, and the price of raw material urea is unstable. In some enterprises, production reduction or overhaul remains unchanged, and the equipment load is still acceptable.

Market demand: At present, the domestic industrial urea market demand is low. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, it is expected that the downstream industrial factories will further decline in the start-up rate. Most plywood factories will stop for vacation around the Spring Festival. As for agricultural demand, with urea prices declining and the approaching of the Spring Festival, distributors begin to purchase in appropriate quantities. It is expected that the domestic urea market will remain stable in the short term, with partial fine-tuning.

Industry chain: Anthracite market supply in the upstream is still tight, coal prices are still rising in recent days, the supply of urea raw materials and natural gas is tight, the price of liquid ammonia market has slightly declined, and urea cost support is strong. Compound fertilizer started at a low level, and raw materials trading was limited.

3. Future Market Forecast

In the short term, there is no fluctuation in the quotation and market turnover of enterprises, and the actual transaction is slightly cool. With the gradual reduction of business orders and increasing pressure, it is reported that last week the low price again exploded, but distributors are not in a hurry to get the goods, and have a strong wait-and-see mood. According to market understanding, the Indian bidding price is not optimistic, exporters are mostly operating for pre-order, this tender is not prepared, may be later to find the source of goods, but in the early part of the low-price transaction, and the number of bidding, because the price is low, the expected volume will not be too much. Domestic demand is still weak. If the support of labeling is limited, and the pressure of enterprises to take orders before the Spring Festival, the urea market is expected to rise slightly next week.

NEW YORK, Jan. 15 (Reuters) – The U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) said in its first 2020 forecast that daily crude oil production from the United States is expected to rise to a new record of more than 12 million barrels this year and to nearly 13 million barrels next year.

U.S. crude oil production is expected to climb 1.14 million barrels to 12.07 million barrels a day in 2019 and increase by 790,000 barrels to 12.86 million barrels by 2020, the Department of Energy Statistics said in a monthly report.

Driven by shale production, the United States has become the world’s largest producer of crude oil, producing nearly 11 million barrels a day in 2018, breaking the annual record set in 1970.

“The steady growth of crude oil production in non-OPEC countries, including the United States, has become the top predictor of global crude oil production,” EIA Administrator Linda Capuano said in a commentary after the forecast. We expect the United States to remain the world’s largest producer of crude oil.

The forecast shows that the United States will become a net exporter of crude oil by the end of 2020.

EIA said daily demand for diesel and other distillate fuels in the United States is expected to increase by 20,000 barrels this year to 4.15 million barrels, and by 2020 to 4.19 million barrels.

Gasoline demand in the United States is expected to reach 9.29 million barrels a day this year, down from the 9.31 million barrels previously predicted. EIA said daily demand for light oil in the United States will rise to 9.35 million barrels this year and remain at that level by 2020.

On January 16, the closing price of p-xylene in the U.S. market rose by $1/ton, closing at $1033-1043/ton FOB in the U.S. Harbour

The business monitoring company’s offer has been lowered. At present, enterprises in Shandong and East China are down by 500 yuan/ton, which is basically balanced with the market. Up to now, the market price in Shandong has been 5,400 yuan/ton, the price around Yanshan is 5,350 yuan/ton, the price in East China is 5,200 yuan/ton, and the price in South China is 5,700 yuan/ton. Overall, the market has a downward trend.

Tianjin Zhongsha Petrochemical’s 350,000 tons/year phenolic ketone plant stopped on September 3 and resumed its resumption today. It is expected to be discharged tomorrow. During the holiday period, the market was weak, and the port inventory in East China was relatively high. After the holiday, the manufacturers concentrated their adjustments and concentrated shipments at the end of the month. The market may still have a slight downward trend.

According to the data monitoring of business organizations, on September 17, the average price of acetic anhydride enterprises was 7312.50 yuan / ton, up 0.26% from the previous trading day, up 46.49%.

On September 16th, the acetic anhydride commodity index was 144.55, which was the same as yesterday. It was 12.78% lower than the highest point of 165.73 points (2018-06-19) in the cycle, which was 75.04% higher than the lowest point of 82.58 points on September 20, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

On September 17, the domestic vinegar anhydride factory price rose, and the market transaction price rose. In most areas, the factory price is 6800-7400 yuan / ton, the actual transaction price is 50 yuan / ton -100 yuan / ton, the actual transaction price is about 6800-7000 yuan / ton, the market price is the reference price, the actual transaction price is actually Negotiation shall prevail.

Recently, the price of raw material acetic acid has risen, the price of raw material methanol has risen, and the overall cost of acetic anhydride manufacturers has risen, which has formed a positive effect on the price of acetic anhydride. The operating rate of downstream customers has rebounded, but the overall start-up is still low. The demand for acetic anhydride is good, but the upward momentum is limited. The downstream procurement enthusiasm is generally limited, and the support for the price increase of acetic anhydride is limited. However, the operating rate of acetic anhydride equipment is at a high level recently, the supply of acetic anhydride is increasing, and the demand for acetic anhydride is slow to recover. It is difficult to support the price of acetic anhydride to continue to rise, and the price of raw materials is rising. The cost of acetic anhydride has risen, and the price of acetic anhydride has a strong upward momentum. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fluctuate and adjust, and the overall domestic price of acetic anhydride will rise slightly.

According to the data monitoring of business organizations, on September 13, the average price of acetic anhydride enterprises was 729.375 yuan/ton, up 0.86% from the previous trading day and up 48.35% year-on-year.

The commodity index of acetic anhydride on September 12 was 143.31, which was the same as yesterday, which was 13.53% lower than the highest point of 165.73 points (2018-06-19) in the cycle, which was 73.54% higher than the lowest point of 82.58 points on September 20, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

On September 13, the domestic vinegar anhydride factory price rose, and the market transaction price rose slightly. In most areas, the factory price is 6800-7200 yuan / ton, the actual transaction price is about 100 yuan / ton, the actual transaction price is about 6600-6900 yuan / ton, the market price is the reference price, the actual transaction price is subject to actual negotiation.

Recently, the price of raw material acetic acid has risen, the price of raw material methanol has risen, and the overall cost of acetic anhydride manufacturers has risen, which has formed a positive effect on the price of acetic anhydride. The operating rate of downstream customers has rebounded, but the overall start-up is still low. The demand for acetic anhydride is good, but the upward momentum is limited. The downstream procurement enthusiasm is generally limited, and the support for the price increase of acetic anhydride is limited. However, the operating rate of acetic anhydride equipment is at a high level recently, the supply of acetic anhydride is increasing, and the demand for acetic anhydride is slow to recover. It is difficult to support the price of acetic anhydride to continue to rise, and the price of raw materials is rising. The cost of acetic anhydride has risen, and the price of acetic anhydride has a strong upward momentum. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fluctuate and adjust, and the overall domestic price of acetic anhydride will rise slightly.

1. Price trend
According to the price monitoring of the business community, this week’s TDI offer closed at 28,340 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2,360 yuan / ton, a decrease of 7.69% compared with the beginning of the week, the price fell sharply.

2. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: The domestic TDI market fell sharply this month. Shanghai Xingrong Chemical Co., Ltd. reported dow28500 yuan / ton; Nanjing Carbon Green Chemicals Co., Ltd. reported that Zhangzhou Dahua 28,000 yuan / ton; Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone Pan Asia International Trade Co., Ltd. reported BASF 28,200 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: The market continued to fall sharply this week. The traditional peak season of TDI is coming, and the industry has different views. Some holders said that this year is not necessarily the same, the downstream environmental inspection is strict, each year is different. According to the previous trend, many people will stock up before the peak season, which directly leads to the peak season, and the supply and demand shutdown is such a dynamic change. It can only be said that the first two years are the peak period of TDI. At the same time, many goods dealers also said that there is no stockpile plan, TDI does not dare to pick up the goods, the current profit margin of the manufacturers is still very large, so the space for falling will be great. At the same time, Yantai Juli and Wanhua Chemical will each have their own production capacity of 150,000 tons/year and 300,000 tons/year. The production capacity will increase and the supply gap will be improved. The early expectations were too high, but the price did not rise as expected, causing prices to fall, and demand was bleak.

Industry: Two consecutive TDI prices such a roller coaster-like market shows that there is indeed a problem in the TDI market. At present, TDI is a high-margin product in the polyurethane industry, and it has been a high price in the recent collapse to 24,500. Long-term high product prices are not conducive to sustainable development. Domestic and foreign manufacturers are researching ways to reduce or replace the use of TDI. If the price does not return to a healthy level at an early date, the follow-up situation is worrying.

III. Conclusions and prospects

According to the analysis of the data analysts of the business community: TDI will continue to decline in a short period of time. If the market is stimulated, it will delay the decline. Mainly depends on economic and environmental factors.

After the listing of RMB crude oil in March this year, the volume of trading continued to rise. In September, oil and gas giants including PetroChina and Sinopec participated in the first delivery of the contract.

Reuters energy analyst Henning Gloystein wrote on August 31 that the presence of renminbi crude oil is rising and threatening the market position of New York oil and Brent oil.

According to the article, the presence of RMB crude oil futures (ISCC1), which the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) began trading in March, continued to rise in the international market. Although this variety has become an indicator for Asian countries, China, as the world’s largest crude oil importer, will continue to promote the trading of RMB crude oil in the future, British North Sea Brent Oil (OIL) and New York West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI). The market position will therefore be shaken.

At the beginning of the trading of RMB crude oil in the previous period, the trading volume exceeded the other futures varieties such as Oman crude oil (the third in the world) that began trading in 2007, occupying the market share of the original Brent oil and New York oil. In July, the total transaction volume increased to 2.8 million hands (1 lot 1,000 barrels), reaching 14.4% of global trading volume.

The article said that the “crust change” of this crude oil futures market will also affect other markets such as foreign exchange.

Richard Innis, head of the Internet currency trading company Oanda Asia Pacific, predicted that “taking into account the prominent situation in China’s oil market, the share of Shanghai oil is expected to increase further.” In addition, the foreign exchange market is also “focusing on the renminbi.”

Zhang Huiyao of Huatai Futures said, “Shanghai crude oil has a higher price and better liquidity, and it has a rapid linkage with other foreign crude oil futures. For speculators, it has become a very good trading variety.”

Considering that China is the world’s largest importer of crude oil, more and more analysts believe that Shanghai Oil will be an important reference indicator. At the same time, the US sanctions against Iran are also one of the reasons for the rapid rise in the significance of its indicators.

As the US government decided in May to impose sanctions on Iran again, it threatened to reduce Iranian crude oil exports to zero as of November 3. All foreign companies and governments that continue to purchase will be sanctioned by the US. China is the biggest buyer of Iranian crude oil and is not expected to ignore the US request.

China has changed part of its crude oil futures trading from the price of the dollar to the yuan.

Innis said, “The continued trading of Iranian crude oil linked to the renminbi on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is expected to be one of China’s current trade frictions.”

He also said that Russia is also interested in clearing crude oil in RMB.

Therefore, Shanghai oil may eventually change the pattern of the world crude oil market.

Barry White of the US international asset holding company (INTL FCStone) said that China’s major oil companies have replaced some of their futures positions with Shanghai crude oil. Shanghai crude oil futures contract was first delivered in September, and giants such as PetroChina and Sinopec participated in it.

According to industry insiders, many companies and banks in the West are also trying to trade Shanghai crude oil futures and plan to expand the transaction volume. Although the Oman crude oil of the Dubai Exchange of the United Arab Emirates has achieved certain success, its influence in the financial market is limited.

The pricing power of the international crude oil market has been dominated by Brent oil and New York oil for decades, which has undoubtedly made China’s promotion of RMB crude oil trading more natural.

Innis said: “As China’s domestic market increases openness and transparency, and the internationalization of the RMB accelerates, Shanghai Oil has begun to take a big step toward this trend.”