The domestic ABS market fluctuated and rose in January, with significant increases in spot prices for most grades. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 31st, the average price of ABS sample products was 9350 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase or decrease of 13.33% in price level.
Fundamental analysis

Supply level: During January, the load of the domestic ABS industry remained stable with small fluctuations, with an overall slight decrease within the range. In mid month, some units of Zhejiang Petrochemical were released for maintenance, and the overall operating level of the industry was reduced by about 3% to 67%, with an average weekly output of 142000 tons. The inventory position of aggregation enterprises has leveled off at around 200000 tons, and the supply on site tends to be tight and balanced. Overall, the supply-demand imbalance in the ABS market has eased in the short term, and the supply side has increased its support for ABS spot prices.
Cost factor: During January, the upstream three materials market of ABS was strong, which had a positive impact on the cost side of ABS. The acrylonitrile market has remained calm in the early stages, with average demand and pressure on local inventory, leading to continuous price reductions from major suppliers. At the end of the month, the overall load of the East China factory decreased, and a set of equipment in Silbang was shut down. The Jieyang equipment in Jihua was temporarily shut down for maintenance, and the supply side began to reduce production. Downstream users have started to stock up on dips, and the acrylonitrile market has bottomed out and rebounded. In the short term, it has recovered from the month’s decline and is expected to rise.
The butadiene market is showing a significant upward trend. At the beginning of the year, the cost side crude oil prices were relatively high, strengthening bottom support. The supply side equipment maintenance, inventory clearance, and external linkage formed multiple benefits. The demand side Shunding rubber started operating at a high level to provide sustained demand, and the supply-demand imbalance drove the market to strengthen. In the short term, the supplier’s mentality of supporting prices will continue, and the load of the end of line butadiene rubber plant is likely to remain high, providing support for the butadiene market. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will maintain a high volatility pattern.
The styrene market also saw a significant increase. The current resumption of work in the industry falls short of expectations, and supply side support has been strengthened. The increase in maintenance of overseas styrene plants and the increase in inquiries and actual transactions of styrene exports from China have further driven the depletion of port inventory. The situation in the Middle East is boosting crude oil prices, and the raw material pure benzene continues to rise. The fundamental improvement of styrene is significant, and it is expected that the styrene market will consolidate at a high level in the short term.
On the demand side: In January, there was no significant improvement in the consumption of ABS’s main downstream electrical appliance shell industry, and the improvement in the profitability of terminal enterprises was limited. However, at the beginning of the month, spot prices were low, and buyers increased their operations of buying on dips. The demand for ABS has shown a phased increase, and the flow rate of supply has improved. The inventory location of merchants is rapidly decreasing, and companies and merchants are trying to overestimate. At the end of the month, with the rise in spot prices, the resistance of high priced goods sources increased. Overall, the demand side has supported the ABS market from strong to flat.
Future forecast
The domestic ABS market saw a significant increase in January. The production load of the aggregation plant has remained stable with a slight decrease, and the supply on site has returned to balance, while the overall cost side remains strong. Business analysts believe that the macro level ABS supply and demand contradiction pattern is still present, but the strong momentum of buying orders at low prices in the early stage has eased production and sales pressure. However, with the demand moving forward to overdraw inventory before the Lunar New Year, coupled with a relatively large increase within the range, buyers’ acceptance of prices has declined, and it is expected that ABS may experience a consolidation market in the future.