1、 Price trend

The domestic xylene market rose steadily this week, with an average price of 3630 yuan / ton as of Friday, up 3.3% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

Xylene prices rose steadily this week. Port inventory continued to fall, but it was still high. As of the end of this week, East China was about 110000 tons, down about 15000 tons compared with last week, and the pressure to go to the warehouse is still there. Market oversupply, downstream Px, gasoline blending demand improved, isomer xylene demand slightly improved, market transactions improved, overall supply and demand situation tended to be stable. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3650 yuan / ton. Worries about the reduction of crude oil demand caused by the new coronavirus epidemic and the impact of geopolitical tightening on economic recovery worries, the future market continued to pay attention to the fluctuation of US dollar index and stock market, the influence of geopolitical situation in the Middle East on crude oil supply, the development progress of new coronavirus vaccine and the continuous spread of overseas epidemic situation, the impact of economic restart recovery on crude oil demand, as well as the situation of global economic recovery and Europe us push The progress of the economic recovery rescue plan.

Upstream, crude oil novel coronavirus pneumonia is facing a severe global epidemic situation, exacerbating the energy demand outlook. In addition, U.S. crude oil inventories rose unexpectedly, traders began to re order oil tankers to store crude oil and diesel oil, Saudi Arabia cut prices sharply, and the situation of global oversupply will continue. As of Friday, spot Brent fell $2.165/barrel to close at $39.045/barrel, down 5.25% from last week. Analysts and traders are short on the outlook for next week’s crude oil, according to fx168′s weekly financial market survey released on Saturday (September 12). Next week will focus on the OPEC + market surveillance group meeting to be held on September 17.

Downstream, in terms of PX market, the listed price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises was about 4600 yuan / ton this week, and the latest external price was about 528 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 546 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the short-term PX market will continue to decline slightly. In terms of PTA market, the market price dropped slightly this week. The domestic PTA spot market price is about 3499 yuan / ton, and the external price is about 444 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that PTA price will continue to decline slightly next week. In terms of ox market, Sinopec’s o-benzene quotation is stable, with the price of 4400 yuan / ton, and the external price of o-benzene is about 530 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 547 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will fall slightly next week.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the total number of us oil drilling and EIA, API inventory data, and the implementation of OPEC + production reduction. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the continuous spread of the global second epidemic on the economic restart of crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the geopolitical situation of the Middle East and China and the United States, and the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States. Third, look at the dollar index and stock market linkage. Next week, we will focus on the fluctuation of US dollar index and stock market, and the impact of Sino US economic and trade situation on the trend of crude oil. Overall, it is expected that xylene prices in the domestic market will adjust next week.

1、 Price trend

On September 11, the average ex factory price of oil to ethylene glycol in North China was 4000 yuan / ton, an increase of 100 yuan / ton or 2.56% compared with last week, according to the business agency.

On September 10, the market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 3840 yuan / ton, down 60 yuan / ton or 1.54% compared with the same period last week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of September 10, the total ethylene glycol inventory in the main ports of East China was 1370100 tons, a decrease of 6400 tons or 0.46% compared with last Thursday, and a decrease of 29900 tons or 2.14% compared with Monday.

In terms of shipment, the average daily shipment of Zhangjiagang and Taicang remained low this week, with the average daily shipment volume of Zhangjiagang about 6800 tons and Taicang daily average shipment volume of 7000 tons.

At present, the operating rate of ethylene glycol is about 56%, which is higher than that of last week; the operating rate of polyester is about 89%, which is basically the same as last week.

In terms of units, the air separation unit of Anhui hongsifang ethylene glycol plant with an annual output of 300000 tons has been restarted. It is expected that the ethylene glycol link will be started around the 10th, and the finished product No.12 is expected to be produced. For the ethylene glycol plant with an annual output of 360000 tons, line 1 and line 2 of Xinhang energy have been restarted and are running at full capacity basically. The restart time of line 3 is expected to be postponed to the end of September.

3、 Analysis and prediction

As the “golden nine silver ten” traditional consumption season has a positive effect on the confidence of ethylene glycol market, at the same time, the import volume of ethylene glycol has also decreased, which makes manufacturers have a certain expectation of rising prices in the near future. However, with the increase of plant restart news, the newly added capacity in the later stage will gradually increase, and the supply will continue to rise. The recent low ethylene glycol shipment shows that the downstream demand is not strong. In this case, it is obviously difficult for the price of ethylene glycol to get a substantial increase.

1、 Price trend

The price of aniline rose slightly this week, according to the data from the bulk list of business associations. On September 4, the price of aniline in Shandong was 4350-4480 yuan / ton, and that in East China was 4500-4700 yuan / ton, up 1.92% over last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, due to the end of maintenance of some downstream units in Shandong this week, the purchase enthusiasm for pure benzene increased, and the price of styrene rose, which led to the continuous pursuit of pure benzene. This week, pure benzene port inventory increased slightly, inventory pressure restricts the price rise. This Sunday (September 6), the listed price of pure benzene was 3170-3450 yuan / ton (the average price was 3410 yuan / ton), and the average price was 0.59% higher than last week.

Since August 19, the price of nitric acid in East China continued to stabilize. On September 4, the production price in East China was 1500 yuan / ton.

Aniline rose in Shandong Province stimulated by cost, while spot supply in East China was not much, with an increase of 100 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory of aniline enterprises is not high, and the supply and demand are stable.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost, new units will be put into operation downstream in September, and the operating rate is expected to increase. But at present, the profit of downstream products is meager, and the short-term port inventory pressure is not low, and the market news is expected to be weak next week.

Aniline enterprise shipment is stable, consumption growth is expected to be stable next week.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business agency, the market of potassium sulfate in Hebei Province is stable this week, and the price of Mannheim potassium sulfate is about 2550 yuan / ton, and that of 50% granules and 52% water soluble powder is about 2650 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week’s price. In terms of water salt system in Qinghai Province, the price of 50% powder to the station is about 2300 yuan / ton. It is understood that at present, the inventory of potassium sulfate in Luozhong and Hami of Xinjiang state investment corporation has been sold out, and it is expected to resume supply to the market in the first ten days of October. There is no obvious change in the potassium sulfate Market as a whole. The price remains high and the operating rate remains high. After the autumn fertilizer production peak season, the market demand begins to decline, and the price will stabilize in the short term. The price of upstream potassium chloride is too low in the early stage. Although there is a recent rise, the market is still mainly wait-and-see, and the transaction is not high.

3、 Future forecast

Potassium sulfate analysts of the business club believe that: the price of potassium sulfate will stabilize in the short term, and the current operating rate will continue to be high. In the case of weakening demand, how the market develops depends on the market reaction.

Trade name: fuel oil 180CST

Latest price (August 31, 2020): 3700 yuan / ton

Analysis points: on August 31, the price of fuel oil was 3700 yuan / ton, and the overall market was stable and the price was strong. The international crude oil price remained above US $40 / barrel, forming a certain support for the price of fuel oil. It is understood that wti10 contract crude oil closed at US $42.93/barrel on the 28th. Due to the current peak power consumption, the power plant procurement is relatively strong, which forms a certain support for fuel oil 180CST price. In addition, the overall inventory of international fuel has declined, and the pressure on the supply side has eased. At present, the price of low sulfur is 3750 yuan / ton for 180 CST fuel oil depot in Hebei area of China Fuel Oil Co., Ltd., and 3850 yuan / ton for 120 CST fuel oil depot.

Aftermarket forecast: it is expected that the fuel market will continue to explore the rising atmosphere in the short term.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite is temporarily stable. As of the end of the week, the average price of domestic fluorite was 2655.56 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price of 2655.56 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decrease of 13.11%.

The price trend of domestic fluorite market is fluctuating. Recently, some manufacturers have reported that their goods are not in good condition, the downstream demand has not improved, and the fluorite price has not changed much. Domestic fluorite manufacturers have been operating stably, the on-site mines and flotation devices have been operating normally, and the fluorite in the yard is not well stocked, and the market price of fluorite is slightly lower. In the near future, the downstream hydrofluoric acid market price has remained low, and the terminal downstream on-demand procurement is not strong. As of the 28th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2500-2600 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 2600-2700 yuan / ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2600-2800 yuan / ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2600-2800 yuan / ton, Recently, the domestic fluorite price remains stable.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid downstream of fluorite is temporarily stable. As of 28 days, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price is 8670 yuan / ton. This week, the hydrofluoric acid market price remains stable. The low hydrofluoric acid market price has a certain negative impact on the upstream fluorite market, and the fluorite market price trend is temporarily stable. In recent years, the sales market of automobile industry is general, but the market of refrigerant downstream of the terminal is slightly lower. There is no obvious improvement in the demand for refrigerants. The foreign economy is recovering continuously. However, the export of refrigerant terminal has not changed much. However, the domestic air-conditioning industry starts at a low level and the demand for maintenance and after-sales service is weak. On the whole, foreign demand has not improved significantly. At present, the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, and the inventory is in a reasonable range. Although the market price has increased, the downstream receiving capacity is limited, and there is a lot of wait-and-see mood. The actual transaction center of gravity is shifted downward. Some traders are looking for positive shipment, and the quotation is slightly lower than the manufacturer’s ex factory price, and there is a phenomenon of cost inversion. The mainstream of on-site negotiation is 15800-16200 yuan / ton 。 The market of R134a in China continues to decline and has fallen to the bottom. The automobile market continues to be depressed with weak demand. The focus of market trading has shifted down and the atmosphere of transaction is light. There is sufficient supply of goods in the market, and there are new production capacity entering the market in the future market. The competition is fierce. The supply side gradually forms a negative situation. The price keeps falling. The downstream demand is not improved. The price of fluorite remains low.

On the whole, the market situation of the downstream refrigerant industry is not good. In addition, hydrofluoric acid merchants have reported that the hydrofluoric acid delivery situation is poor, and some regions are in a state of price and no market. Chen Ling, an analyst at the business agency, believes that the fluorite market price may be slightly lower in the short term.

Trade name: potassium chloride

Latest price (August 26): 1855.00 yuan / ton

On August 26, the mixed price of potassium chloride in Qinghai was temporarily stable, which was in line with the quotation on August 24. At present, the main contradiction in the market is that the supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream purchasing is mainly required, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

Recently, the price of potassium chloride in Qinghai area may fluctuate slightly, and the quotation is about 1800-1900 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

Price: the mainstream quotation of GPPS is 7650-8900 yuan / ton, and that of hips is 8700-9700 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

PS market trend is stable, market inquiry atmosphere performance is general, small and medium-sized downstream enterprises still purchase on demand, the actual transaction is slightly light.

3、 Future forecast

The PS market is running smoothly, the quotation is stable, the traders are flexible, the terminal demand has not changed significantly, the factory still purchases on demand to meet the normal production, and the overall trading atmosphere is flat. It is expected that the PS market will continue to adjust downward.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of steam coal is temporarily stable this week. From August 17 to August 21, the average port price of steam coal remained at 559.5 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.24% compared with the same period last year. On August 23, the commodity index of steam coal was 67.41, unchanged with yesterday, down 34.56% from the highest point of 103.01 in the cycle (November 15, 2011), and 50.81% higher than the lowest point of 44.70 on January 20, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of production areas, some coal mines in Northern Shaanxi have stopped production for maintenance, and the actual production capacity has declined and the supply is tight, but the overall shipment is relatively smooth, and the coal price generally rises by 5-10 yuan; the coal management tickets in Inner Mongolia are strictly controlled, and the long-term cooperative shipping is basically maintained, and the coal price is weak and stable; the production and sales in northern Shanxi are relatively normal, and the coal price is firm.

In terms of downstream power plants, the mainstream closing price of 5500 kcal steam coal in the port is about 556-561 yuan / ton. The high temperature weather in China continues, the daily coal consumption of power plants is increasing day by day, and the inventory has no obvious change, and most of them are long-term cooperative replenishment warehouses. As of the 21st, Zhejiang power had 4.43 million tons of inventory, 150000 tons of daily consumption, and 29.53 days of usable days.

Data released by the National Bureau of statistics on August 14 showed that the price of coal in the first ten days of August was mainly stable. The specific price changes of each coal type are as follows: anthracite (washing medium block, volatile content ≤ 8%) price is 835 yuan / ton, which is 5 yuan / ton lower than the previous period, or 0.6% lower. The price of ordinary blended coal (mixed coal of Shanxi fine coal and lump coal, with a calorific value of 4500 kcal) was 443.3 yuan / ton, up 2.7 yuan / ton or 0.6% compared with the previous period. The price of Shanxi mixed coal (better quality blended coal with a calorific value of 5000 kcal) was 495 yuan / ton, which was the same as the previous period. The price of Shanxi Youhun (high quality blended coal, calorific value 5500 kcal) was 543.3 yuan / ton, which was the same as the previous period. The price of Datong blended coal (produced by Datong, with calorific value of 5800 kcal) was 573.3 yuan / ton, which was the same as the previous period. The price of coking coal (main coking coal, sulfur content < 1%) was 1270.0 yuan / ton, which was the same as the previous period.

Business agency analysts believe that: the supply of production areas is relatively tight, and the daily consumption of downstream power plants is increasing due to weather reasons. However, due to the coal price inventory of Changxie coal, the power plant needs to purchase steam coal on demand. Datong Qinhuangdao line is back to traffic, the shipment volume is less than that of the previous days, the inventory of Beigang is still in the middle and high level, the seller’s willingness to support the price is still there, the terminal demand is general, and the transaction situation is relatively general. In a comprehensive view, the short-term steam coal price may maintain a small consolidation trend, and the specific demand of downstream market.

In the case of stable supply and demand, the impact of power coal storage on the price increases. In August, the average daily coal consumption decreased, while the production of Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi gradually recovered, and the power plant inventory was also at a high level. Therefore, the price of steam coal in late August dropped and adjusted, and the probability of decline increased.

Average daily coal consumption will decrease

From January to July, China’s power generation increased by 3.33% year-on-year, of which thermal power generation increased by 2.63%. From the monthly data, the average daily coal consumption of the six power generation groups increased significantly in March, especially from the middle of March. The month on month growth rate was 25% in March, 4.2% in April, 13.16% and 0.96% in May and June, respectively. In July, although the rainstorm affected the downstream construction progress, the average daily coal consumption remained at a high level. In August, with the end of large-scale rainfall in southern China and the recovery of downstream construction, it is expected that the average daily coal consumption of industrial enterprises will rise month on month in the middle and late August, while the civil power consumption is still at a high level. Recently, the electricity consumption in Tianjin, Jiangsu, Shanghai and other places has reached an all-time high. The average daily coal consumption in the middle and last ten days of August may be the highest in the year.

In addition, from the seasonal point of view, the peak of thermal power generation is from July to August every year, which is also the peak season of power coal consumption. According to the statistical data analysis of the past eight years, the thermal power generation in August was higher than that in July in six years, except for 2014 and 2017. In absolute terms, the average daily thermal power generation in August increased by 0.5% – 1% compared with that in July. Therefore, we speculate that the thermal power generation capacity in August this year is still rising compared with July, but the range is limited.

Coal supply is gradually restored

As one of the largest coal producing areas in China, Inner Mongolia has been looking back at coal mines for 20 years since the end of April. Since 2000, all coal mines in Inner Mongolia have been included in the inventory, including planning and approval, investment audit, resource allocation and environmental audit. In this case, the output of Inner Mongolia fell by 12.9% in May and 9.6% in June. It is expected that coal production will gradually recover from July to August.

Since the middle and late July, the tense situation of coal spot market supply has eased, especially recently, the mine mouth coal supply in Inner Mongolia has increased, the spot shipment is slightly under pressure, and the price is weakening. However, since the end of July in Yulin, Shaanxi Province, the overall sales have weakened, the inventory has accumulated and the coal price has been lowered.

On the other hand, import coal increased more than expected. In August, Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal steam coal price rose to 543 yuan / ton, Shanxi Youhun 5500 kcal steam coal price rose to 578 yuan / ton, which is already in the high price area of the guiding price. Once the price rises to 600 yuan / ton, it will touch the lower limit of the red range of coal price proposed in the memorandum on suppressing the abnormal fluctuation of coal market price, and the state will start to stabilize the abnormal fluctuation price Mechanism. Therefore, there is limited space for coal prices to rise further. In addition, 8.39 million tons of steam coal were imported in June, an increase of 2.42 million tons compared with 5.97 million tons in May. Although the import volume in July decreased by 20.6% year-on-year, it increased by 810000 tons on a month on month basis. This shows that when the price of domestic coal is high, the control on imported coal will be relaxed.

As of the middle of July, the electric coal inventory of the power plants of the national unified dispatching was about 140 million tons, an increase of 5.1 million tons compared with the end of June, which was the highest level in the history of summer, and the available days of inventory increased to 27 days. The inventory of national key power plants also rose to a high level of 86 million tons, and the available days remained above 22 days.

At the same time, port inventory is also increasing. Since the end of May, coal stocks in both southern and northern ports have been on the rise, indicating that consumption in the South has also declined with the increase of supply in the north. The purchase intention of downstream terminal is low, the actual transaction of coal in the market is cold, and traders have a strong wait-and-see mood, and the mainstream quotations rise first and then fall. The basis has dropped from more than 30 yuan per ton in mid July to about – 17 yuan / ton at present, significantly down.