1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the price of pure benzene stopped falling and rose this week. On January 3, the price of pure benzene was 3970-4400 yuan / ton (average price 4224 yuan / ton); on this Sunday (January 10), the price of pure benzene was 4170-4550 yuan / ton (average price 4424 yuan / ton), up 200 yuan / ton or 4.73% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

Crude oil rose rapidly this week, and cost support strengthened; in addition, pure benzene in Asia rose widely; downstream styrene price rebounded, and pure benzene surged higher this week. This week, Sinopec’s price of pure benzene was increased by 150 yuan / ton to 4550 yuan / ton, and the price in parts of North China was increased to 4350 yuan / ton. On Monday, the total inventory of pure benzene in East China port was about 2000 tons higher than last week.

In terms of external market, driven by the demand for pure benzene in Europe and the United States, pure benzene in Asia rose broadly this week. On Friday (January 8), South Korea imported 664.67 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, up 39 US dollars / ton or 6.23% compared with December 31; East China imported 642 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, up 31.5 US dollars / ton or 5.16% compared with December 31.

In terms of crude oil, on January 5, OPEC + reached an agreement to adjust the daily crude oil production. In addition, Saudi Arabia said that it would reduce the daily crude oil production by an additional 1 million barrels in February and March, and the oil price rose rapidly boosted by the favorable situation. Compared with December 31, Brent rose by $4.805/barrel, or 9.52%; WTI rose by $3.63/barrel, or 7.46%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 24.38% and WTI decreased by 19.98%.

Downstream: styrene: the price of styrene rose with the rise of crude oil. After entering January, the inventory of northern styrene enterprises decreased, the impact on East China arbitrage weakened, the price of production enterprises rose again, the cost support and some downstream replenishment transactions supported the market to open higher. On Friday (January 8), the price of sample enterprises was 6550 yuan / ton, up 483.33 yuan / ton or 7.97% compared with last Friday, and down 8.6% compared with the same period last year.

Aniline: the price of aniline is stable this week, and the operating rate is higher than last week. At present, Jinmao aniline plant is restarted and normally shipped, and aniline supply is expected to increase in the later stage. On January 8, the price of aniline was 7800-7900 yuan / ton in Shandong and 8000-8100 yuan / ton in Nanjing.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the international crude oil news is good, and there is still the possibility of rising next week. In the later stage, we will continue to pay attention to the global new epidemic situation and vaccine progress, OPEC +’s latest policy on production reduction, geopolitical risks in the Middle East and global economic recovery.

Crude oil and external support is good, downstream styrene still has room to rise in the short term, and pure benzene is expected to rise next week. Later still need to pay attention to pure benzene inventory changes, styrene trend.