In early November, the market price of lithium hexafluorophosphate continued to decline, resonating with cost collapse and demand wait-and-see, and the short-term weakness is difficult to change. As of November 11th, the benchmark price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (battery grade) is 91500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.29% compared to the beginning of this month.
2、 Raw material side: The price of core raw material lithium carbonate has weakened synchronously. Lithium carbonate accounts for the majority of the production cost of lithium hexafluorophosphate, and its continuous price decline directly lowers the marginal cost curve of lithium hexafluorophosphate. As of November 11th, the benchmark price of lithium carbonate (battery grade) is 90000.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.23% compared to the beginning of this month (93000.00 yuan/ton).
3、 Supply side: The industry’s operating rate remains at a high level of 89.6%, with a monthly output of approximately 32500 tons, and new production capacity is still climbing in the second half of the year. Top enterprises rely on long-term contract orders to deliver in an orderly manner, but the bulk market has abundant circulating sources of goods, and the competition for low-end production capacity prices is fierce. The rigid growth of supply is still the core factor that suppresses prices.
4、 Demand side: The pace of downstream procurement has significantly slowed down. The domestic lithium battery production plan for November has decreased by about 5% compared to the previous month. Battery factories continue to adopt the strategy of small orders for essential needs, and some downstream manufacturers are not clearly locking in monthly long orders and turning to on-demand procurement. Electrolyte companies have a pessimistic outlook on the future market of hexafluoride, and their enthusiasm for stocking has decreased, resulting in market trading and surrender.
5、 Market forecast: Analysts predict that in the short term, lithium hexafluorophosphate will still face the dual pressure of cost reduction and slowing demand, and the price is likely to continue to fluctuate weakly, linked to the downward trend of lithium carbonate costs. The opportunity for subsequent stabilization mainly depends on whether downstream centralized replenishment is initiated and whether cost price support can be consolidated; If there is a marginal repair in the positive electrode production in December, there may be a phase resonance, but with the continuous release of new production capacity, the rebound space is limited.