According to the monitoring data of the business community, on January 1, the average quoted price of domestic n-butanol was 5833 yuan / ton, and on June 30, the average quoted price of domestic n-butanol was 5950 yuan / ton. Compared with January 1, the average quoted price in the first half of the year was increased by 117 yuan / ton, or 2% in the first half of the year. On December 31, the average quoted price of domestic n-butanol was 9366 yuan / ton, which was 3416 yuan / ton higher than that on June 30, with an increase of 57.42%. From January 1 to December 31, the annual price of n-butanol increased by 3533 yuan / ton, or 60.57%.
According to the monthly fluctuation chart of n-butanol from January to December in 2020, it can be seen that n-butanol will only decline in February, March and July in 2020. The biggest decline was in March, with an overall decline of 20.12%, and the biggest increase was in November, with an overall rise of 38.23%. The lowest price of the whole year was on April 4, the average quotation price of domestic n-butanol market was 4300 yuan / ton, the highest price of the whole year was on December 22, the average quotation price of domestic n-butanol market was 10000 yuan / ton, the maximum amplitude of the whole year was 132.56%.
Domestic n-butanol market weak in the first half of the year
In the first half of 2020, the domestic n-butanol market is weak as a whole. From January to June, the overall trend of n-butanol is “W”, with similar prices at the beginning and end, and two low prices in the middle market.
In January, the domestic n-butanol market was driven by the increase of downstream purchasing demand before the Spring Festival, and the overall market trend was strong and stable. In February, after the Spring Festival, affected by the logistics and transportation conditions and the market environment, the n-butanol market demand weakened, the trading volume was weak, the factory started low, and the supply and demand were weak. N-butanol went down all the way, and the decline continued until March. The n-butanol market continued to move forward in a weak way. The mentality of the industry was depressed by the international crude oil. In addition, the downstream start-up load increased slowly, and the propylene raw material decreased According to the data monitoring, the reference average price of n-butanol in China fell to 4366 yuan / ton on March 31. Compared with the price on January 1, the market price of n-butanol in the first quarter of 2020 fell by 1467 yuan / ton, or 25.14%.
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In April, on the first two days of the month, n-butanol continued to decline slightly. On April 4, the average quoted price of domestic n-butanol market dropped to 4300 yuan / ton, which was the lowest price in 2020 and the first low in the first half of the year. After the Qingming Festival, the transaction atmosphere of n-butanol market increased. The enthusiasm of downstream butyl users for purchasing low-cost goods in the market increased slightly. The sharp rise in the price of raw material propylene gave the industry strong confidence to raise the price. The n-butanol market rose all the way to the middle of April, and the domestic n-butanol rose to 5933 yuan / ton, up 35.88% in half a month. Then, with the impact of the decline of propylene market, the n-butanol market rose sharply and then fell rapidly again. As of April 30, the domestic n-butanol price fell below 5000 yuan / ton, with the average price reference at 4966 yuan / ton, meeting the second low in the first half of 2020.
After the labor day in May, the overall trend of domestic n-butanol market has warmed up. The market is all the way up, the downstream purchasing atmosphere is positive, the raw material support is strengthened, the supply pressure is small, the upstream and downstream transmission is smooth, and the industry is full of confidence. Throughout may, the n-butanol market quotation is all the way up. In June, at the beginning of the month, affected by the excessive inventory of n-butanol in some areas, some factories gave up profits to ship, and the offer price of n-butanol went down. Then, the rise of propylene gave support to the cost of n-butanol, and n-butanol stopped falling upward. The factory’s operation was low, the spot was tight, the market inquiry atmosphere was good, and the center of gravity of n-butanol kept moving up. As of June 30, according to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 5950 yuan / ton, which was 1600 yuan / ton higher than that on April 1, with an increase of 36.26% in the second quarter. Compared with January 1, the average price in the first half of the year increased by 117 yuan / ton, or 2% in the first half of the year.
In the second half of 2020, the market offer of n-butanol will exceed 10000 yuan / ton to meet the highest point of the whole year
In July and August of the second half of 2020, the overall market trend of n-butanol is general, basically maintaining the high price of the first half of the year, and continuing to rise is not realized. The market of n-butanol rose steadily in September and October. The highlight time of n-butanol market was two months at the end of the year. The market of n-butanol rose sharply in November and December.
In July, the overall market of n-butanol in China fell due to the delay of maintenance of some factories, the increase of supply in the short term and the low purchasing sentiment in the downstream. In August, the n-butanol market began to rise steadily under the support of rising raw materials and low inventory. In late August, affected by the weakening demand for tourism, the n-butanol market rose weakly and maintained stable operation. On August 31, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 5700 yuan / ton. In September, with the arrival of Jinjiu, the domestic n-butanol market rose steadily. The high level of raw materials supported the cost of n-butanol, the downstream replenishment was good, the market transaction atmosphere turned better, and the supply pressure was small. Driven by multiple positive factors, the transaction center of n-butanol kept moving up. In the last ten days, the mainstream quotation of n-butanol market continued to rise, boosted by the pre Festival stock and tight supply. On September 30, the average reference price of n-butanol was 6333 yuan / ton, up 11.11% per month and 5.56% in the third quarter.
After the National Day in October, the n-butanol market continued to rise in September, and the focus of transaction moved steadily to the high end again. At the end of the month, affected by the negative drop of downstream butyl acrylate products and the sharp drop of raw material propylene price, the order of n-butanol decreased, and the price declined slightly. The overall increase in October was still dominant. As of October 31, the average reference price of n-butanol was 6583 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 3.95%.
Butanol rose 38.23% in November
In early November, the domestic n-butanol market was stable. 9. Since the 10th, downstream butyl users have entered the market to replenish n-butanol. The spot supply of n-butanol is tight. The quotation of n-butanol factory has started to rise, and the market of n-butanol has entered a broad upward channel. As of the 30th, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol has increased by 2517 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 38.23%, compared with that on November 1.
In December, the price of n-butanol reached the highest in the year, exceeding 10000 yuan / ton
Since December 3 and 4, under the high price, the downstream demand has weakened, and the n-butanol market has fluctuated downward. Since late December, affected by the emergency overhaul and shutdown of foreign n-butanol production plants, the export of n-butanol has increased, the demand for n-butanol has increased, the market has continued to rise, the purchasing atmosphere is good, and the spot is tight. As of December 21, the average ex factory price of n-butanol has risen to 10016 yuan / ton, a new high in the year, and the high price continues for one week. Near the end of the month, it is affected by the weakening demand from downstream As of December 30, the reference average price of n-butanol in China was 9300 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 2.93%, a rise of 47.89% in the fourth quarter and an annual increase of 60.57%.
Future market forecast of n-butanol in China
With the advent of new year’s day and Spring Festival, n-butanol downstream replenishment has been started one after another. With the increase of demand, it is expected that the quotation of n-butanol plant will stop falling and stabilize in the short term, and the market center will maintain stable operation before the Spring Festival, with limited up and down adjustment.
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