Trend analysis

According to the data of business agency, the price of cobalt fell in November, and the market of cobalt Market weakened. As of November 16, the cobalt price was 267500.00 yuan / ton, down 0.43% from 268666.66 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (November 1).

Domestic mobile phone production and sales data

According to the statistics of China mobile phone market, the total number of domestic mobile phone sales decreased by 0.261-2.21 billion in the year-on-year basis. In October, domestic mobile phone sales rose on a month on month basis, but fell sharply year-on-year. The demand for cobalt market recovered, but it was still not enough to support the rise of cobalt price.

Domestic new energy vehicle market

According to the statistical data of CAAC, in October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 167000 and 160000, respectively, up 69.7% and 104.5% year-on-year. From January to October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 914000 and 901000, respectively, down 9.2% and 7.1% year-on-year. From July to October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles broke the historical records of the month in April, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles continued to rise in a single month, and the market of new energy vehicles recovered. However, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in the whole year still fell sharply year on year, and the recovery of new energy vehicle market was not enough to support the recovery of cobalt price.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of business agency, believes that mobile phones rose month on month in October, new energy vehicle sales rose sharply, and cobalt market demand recovered. However, in the global market, affected by the epidemic situation, the sales of major mobile phones and new energy vehicles in Europe and the United States dropped sharply, and the overall demand of cobalt market declined. The recovery of domestic cobalt market demand is difficult to change the overall market trend of weak global cobalt market demand, and the rising motivation of cobalt price is insufficient.

1、 Melamine price trend

(Figure: P value curve of melamine product)

2、 Market analysis

Melamine market is up this week. According to the monitoring sample data of business agency, as of November 13, the average price quoted by melamine enterprises was 6733.33 yuan / ton, up 7.45% compared with the beginning of the week and 20.24% higher than that on October 13. Manufacturers to implement early orders, spot supply is tight, the market is willing to rise, melamine prices go up.

At present, the mainstream quotation of melamine in Shandong is around 7000 yuan / ton, that in Xinjiang is around 5900 yuan / ton, and that in Sichuan is around 6500 yuan / ton. The quotation is for reference only, and the actual price shall prevail.

Upstream urea, November 13, Shandong urea market rose. The recent high-level consolidation of upstream liquid ammonia has a good cost support. Domestic demand is fair, agricultural demand in some areas has followed up, and industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. In terms of supply, some devices were overhauled and some of them were in short supply.

3、 Future forecast

Melamine analysts from the business agency believe that in the near future, the upstream urea price has risen slightly, the cost support has been strengthened, and the spot supply in the market is tight. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will be mainly stable, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance for the specific trend.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the domestic market of cis-1,1-11-10 fell in the first ten days of November (11.1-11.10), with the price at 11060.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 10640.00 yuan / ton as of November 10, with an overall decrease of 3.8%.

In the first ten days of November, the ex factory price of some domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber and petrochemical manufacturers was reduced by 200 yuan / ton. As of November 10, the ex warehouse price of Daqing cis-1,4-butadiene of PetroChina Northeast sales company was implemented at 10700 yuan / ton. In November, the operating rate of domestic petrochemical CIS polybutadiene rubber plant did not change significantly compared with that at the end of October, and the overall operating rate was around 70%. According to the business agency, Yantai Haopu New Material Technology Co., Ltd. shut down the 60000 ton nickel based high CIS polybutadiene rubber plant on November 24 and restarted operation on November 2; Yanshan Petrochemical’s 120000 T / a nickel based CIS polybutadiene unit was in normal operation, and the rare earth cis-1,1-polybutadiene unit was shut down The 100000 t / a high CIS polybutadiene rubber plant of Yangzi Petrochemical Co., Ltd. will be shut down for maintenance from November 4, with an estimated time of 7-12 days; the cis-1,4-polybutadiene units of Lande, Qixiang and Qilu are in normal operation.

Raw material prices slightly lower, the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber support weakened. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of November 10, the butadiene price was 9185 yuan / ton, slightly lower than 9200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

The start-up of downstream tire market continued to rise slightly, and the start-up of all steel tire and semi steel tire remained above 70%, and there was rigid demand for rubber.

At present, the downstream support of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is still obvious. On the one hand, the raw material butadiene enters a short-term stable period, and the cost support strength is weakened; on the other hand, it is the correction and adjustment of the early excessive growth. On the whole, there is no short-term strong negative factor in the market, and the cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber industrial chain is still in a relatively strong stage.

In the early stage, however, it is expected that the rubber price will remain high in the early stage, and the price of raw materials will remain high in the future.

Trade name: sulfuric acid

Latest price (November 9): 402.50 yuan / ton

On November 9, the market price of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province rose by 5.0 yuan / ton or 1.26% compared with the price quoted on November 6. The upstream sulfur market has risen slightly recently, the cost support is good, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general, and the sulfuric acid supply is normal.

Recently, the market price of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province may fluctuate slightly, and the quotation is about 410 yuan / ton.

This week (11.2-11.6) the domestic cyclohexanone market downturn finishing. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market was 5850 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 5866 yuan / ton at the weekend. The price increased by 0.28% during the week, increased by 2.62% month on month, and decreased by 22.81% year on year. At present, the downstream polymerization plant and caprolactam are slightly weak, the chemical fiber list is shelved, and the shipment of cyclohexanone is not smooth. The traders frankly said that there is no order in the near future. The pressure of cyclohexanone delivery is still on the high side, and the price keeps falling. Business agency cyclohexanone analysts expect that the next week domestic cyclohexanone market finishing.

Regional price

6200-6300 yuan / ton in East China

6300-6400 yuan / ton in South China

5950-6050 yuan / ton in Shandong, cash delivery

Trade name: calcium carbide

Latest price (November 2): 2896.67 yuan / ton

On November 2, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose by 33.34 yuan / ton, or 1.16%, compared with that on October 30. The price of raw materials is low, and the cost of calcium carbide is generally supported. But the downstream PVC market rose slightly recently, downstream customers are more active in purchasing calcium carbide, and calcium carbide supply is normal.

In the near future, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly: the manufacturer’s quotation is about 2900 yuan / ton.

The commodity index of hydrogenated benzene on October 29 was 38.05, down 0.03 points compared with yesterday, 62.70% lower than 102.01 points (2014-01-09), 26.88% higher than 29.99 points on April 07, 2020. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2013 to now).

In October 2020, the hydrobenzene market will rise after shocks. The factory price in North China will rise by 3.45% from 3332.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 3447.50 yuan / ton at the end of the month.

Summary of price adjustment of pure benzene in Sinopec (East China) in October 2020 (unit: yuan / ton)

Price adjustment amount after date adjustment

October 9 3300 – 150

October 14 3350 + 50

October 16 3400 + 50

October 20 3500 + 100

October 22 3600 + 100

In October 2020, the price of pure benzene of Yangzi Petrochemical (Sinopec East China) will be lowered once and increased four times. As of October 22, the price will be 3600 yuan / ton.

It can be seen from the price trend chart of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong Province monitored in the above figure that the price of hydrogenated benzene Market in this month was relatively stable at the beginning of the month, the basic replenishment was completed before the festival, the market opened quietly after the festival, the price was temporarily stable, and the transaction was general. In the middle of the year, it was in the rising channel, driven by the rising styrene downstream and the rising external market. Affected by this, the market mentality was obviously improved, and the ex factory price of pure benzene rose one after another. Sinopec was listed on the 14th, 16th, 20th and 22nd, which increased by 300 yuan / ton, and Sinopec’s quotation was 3600 yuan / ton by the end of the month. Hydrogenated benzene followed the trend, the atmosphere was warm, downstream purchase on demand, but a deal. After that, with the bidding price of upstream crude benzol increased significantly, the cost pressure of hydrogenated benzene increased, and the support of downstream styrene to upstream was weakened, the pure benzene hydrobenzene market gradually returned to the dominant position of supply and demand changes. At the end of the month, the hydrobenzene market was mainly consolidated, the bidding price of crude benzene was reduced, and the industrial chain returned to a small adjustment trend.

In terms of downstream demand, at present, the main demand areas for hydrogenated benzene and pure benzene in East China and North China have more unit maintenance from late October to November. If the unit is shut down on time, the overall market demand is expected to weaken. However, at the end of the fourth quarter, some new production capacity will be put into production in North China. Affected by this positive effect, the mentality of market participants remains stable for a long time.

In terms of aftermarket, the business community believes that at present, the influence of fundamental factors is less, the market trend mainly follows the change of supply and demand in the nature of the market, and the hydrobenzene market will be mainly consolidated in the short term. In the fourth quarter, we still need to focus on the impact of new downstream capacity and crude oil price on the market.

Ethylene oxide has been consolidated for more than two months, but only in Northeast China is stable and small. The national ex factory price including tax ranges from 7200 yuan / ton to 7400 yuan / ton, of which the factory tax inclusive price in mainstream East China is 7200 yuan / ton.

Ethylene market weak downward, the decline is very obvious, as of today (30), ethylene CFR Northeast Asia price is 775.00 US dollars / ton. The supply of ethylene glycol is loose, the fundamentals are weak, the surfactant market is mainly sorted out, and the ethanolamine supply is sufficient to meet the weak demand. The main downstream polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer market is declining, and the peak season of gold, silver and ten is not fully prosperous. At present, the trend of monomer supply exceeding demand is hard to shake, the fundamentals are weak and the market atmosphere is strong. The tight supply of ethylene oxide continues, and the decrease of supply forms a certain support for the market, but under the influence of negative factors, the price has entered a dilemma.

We should pay close attention to the change of supply and demand in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

As of October 28, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 13833.33 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last Wednesday, 6.74% lower than the beginning of the month, 6.74% lower than the beginning of the month, and 20.19% lower than the beginning of the year, according to the bulk data monitoring of the business agency.

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the R22 market of refrigerant market has been running weakly and steadily, and the price has dropped steadily. Downstream major air conditioning manufacturers started low, demand was scarce, foaming agent demand decreased, orders were not many, the demand side is difficult to boost the market, raw material surface hydrofluoric acid and chloroform industry trend is stable, there is no good signal, although the end of the year quota reduction, but the market return to buyer led, R22 short-term market weakness is still. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of October 28, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of refrigerant R22 market were about 12500-16500 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price was low.

In terms of raw materials, on October 28, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was 7700-8300 yuan / ton. The ex factory prices of domestic manufacturers remained stable. The operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was general, and the on-site supply was normal, which was affected by the stable price of fluorite. However, the demand of the downstream refrigerant industry was poor, and the on-site procurement was mainly based on demand. It is expected that the on-site price will remain low in the future.

Trichloromethane: at present, the domestic chloroform market is affected by the high price of raw materials, and the production cost is high. However, the purchasing intention of the downstream market is flat, and most of them hold a wait-and-see attitude towards chloroform. Therefore, some enterprises reduce the burden and reduce the pressure. It is expected that the price of chloroform will remain stable in a short time.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analysts of the business agency, the support of the raw material end is insufficient, the downstream demand is sluggish, the market transaction atmosphere is general, and the R22 market is running weakly and steadily, and the price is falling steadily. It is expected that refrigerant R22 will continue low consolidation in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, affected by the high price of raw materials, the market of dichloromethane in Shandong has risen steadily. As of October 27, the average price in Shandong was about 3100 yuan / ton, up 1.64% compared with the same period last week and 19.23% higher than that at the beginning of the month.

Production capacity and operation of the enterprise

440000 T / A in Jinling, Shandong Province

Dongying Jinmao 120000 tons / year parking

Low load of 400000 tons / year in Luxi Chemical Industry

Shandong Dongyue: 280000 tons / year: 30%

Jiangxi Liwen: 120000 tons / year: 30%

Jiangsu Liwen: 160000 tons / year

Jiangsu Meilan 200000 tons / year 70%

Quhua, Zhejiang: 300000 yuan / year: 70%

Zhejiang Juhua: 300000 tons / year: 50%

At present, the price of dichloromethane in China has risen to a high level, and the downstream market has not accepted it very well. As the market trading activity has declined, with the continuous increase of raw material liquid chlorine, the cost of dichloromethane production enterprises is high, and the enterprises are forced to follow the increase. At present, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong is about 3100-3140 yuan / ton, that of Jiangsu Liwen is about 3550 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangxi Liwen is about 3050 yuan / ton.

In terms of upstream market, methanol market is running at a high level with low market inventory. Downstream enterprises and traders are active in purchasing and operating strongly in a short period of time. At present, the liquid chlorine market is affected by the maintenance plan of main production enterprises, and the downstream and traders’ intention to prepare goods increases, and the market transaction is active, and the price of liquid chlorine is firm and upward. At present, the mainstream quotation in the industry is about 1200-1400 yuan / ton.

In terms of downstream market, the refrigerant market is weak and stable, the domestic market is weak, the transaction environment continues to be depressed, traders are cautious in taking goods, and the market is expected to weaken in the short term; the pharmaceutical and agricultural solvent industry started smoothly, and there is insufficient support for dichloromethane.

Analysts of methane chloride data from business society believe that at present, domestic dichloromethane is affected by the high price of raw materials, and the production cost is high. However, the purchasing intention of downstream market is flat, and they hold a wait-and-see attitude towards dichloromethane. Therefore, some enterprises reduce the burden and reduce pressure, and it is expected that the price of dichloromethane will remain stable in a short period of time.