Commodity index: on May 31, the polyaluminum chloride commodity index was 93.15, down 1.81 points from yesterday, down 14.55% from 109.01 points (August 28, 2019), the highest point in the cycle, and up 10.47% from 84.32 points, the lowest point on August 18, 2020（ Note: period refers to from April 1, 2019 to now)

The monitoring shows that in the second quarter of 2021, the main market of domestic polyaluminium chloride rose, especially in the late May due to the impact of the big rise in raw materials. In April, the mainstream market of polyaluminum chloride in China showed a slight fluctuation, with an amplitude of no more than 1%. The domestic mainstream price of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride was 1710 yuan / ton on the 1st day, and 1720 yuan / ton on the 30th day, with an increase of 0.58%. In May, the market of China’s (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) solid polyaluminum chloride showed a fluctuating upward trend in the early stage, and then decreased at the end of the month: the domestic mainstream price was 1720 yuan / ton on the 1st, 1756.67 yuan / ton on the 30th, and 1723.33 yuan / ton on the 31st.

Industrial chain: upstream raw materials, hydrochloric acid: business data show that the trend of hydrochloric acid in North China in April was volatile and downward: on April 1, the market mainstream quotation was about 243.33 yuan / ton, and on April 29, it was about 226.67 yuan / ton, with a monthly decline of about 6.85%. The upstream liquid chlorine market is general, which gives weak support to hydrochloric acid; On the other hand, the monthly price fluctuation of silica in the lower reaches is no more than 1%, and the price of ammonium chloride is slightly down by 1.34% this month. The overall consolidation is high and the support for hydrochloric acid is weak. To sum up, hydrochloric acid is expected to fluctuate slightly in the near future. In May, the trend of hydrochloric acid in North China showed a slight upward trend. On the 1st, the mainstream market quotation was 226.67 yuan / ton. On the 17th, the price of hydrochloric acid mixture in Shandong increased by 6.66 yuan / ton, or 2.94%. After that, the price temporarily stabilized around 223.33 yuan / ton. The market of liquid chlorine in the upper reaches is general, which gives weak support to hydrochloric acid. The market of silica and ammonium chloride in the lower reaches is high, which brings certain benefits to the price of hydrochloric acid. In the early stage, the maintenance of enterprises increased, the supply of hydrochloric acid was tight, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream was good, and the market price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong increased slightly; In the later period, the quotations of some manufacturers fell slightly. Calcium powder: according to the manufacturers in the main production area, the price of polyaluminum chloride generally increased in May due to the rising prices of hydrochloric acid and calcium powder.

Secondly, natural gas is used in the production process. During the Spring Festival in February, Shandong’s civil gas market was phased. The trend before and after the festival was different. Before the festival, the market was mainly weak, and after the festival, the market took a short roller coaster. In March, the LPG market changed its downward trend and returned to the upward trend, and the civil gas market in Shandong rose significantly; However, in the middle of March, it began to fall continuously, the rising situation was blocked, and the rebound market did not continue; From the end of March, the LPG market was dominated by favorable factors and entered the upward channel again. In April, the LPG civil market continued to rise, and the price kept rising, especially after the Qingming Festival holiday; However, in late April, the price of liquefied petroleum gas for civilian use showed a “slide” market, and remained stable after a 5-6% drop. In May, the LPG market experienced twists and turns, showing an overall upward trend; According to the data monitoring of the business society, the average price of LPG in Shandong market was 4066.67 yuan / ton on the 5th and 4143.33 yuan / ton on the 31st, with an increase of 156.66 yuan / ton. In fact, the highest price of this month was 4306.67 yuan / ton, and the lowest price was 4133.33 yuan / ton, with a maximum amplitude of 4.02%.

Downstream demand: the downstream demand of polyaluminum chloride still has little change. The “carbon peak” and “carbon neutralization” proposed by the two sessions of this year have stricter and long-term sustainability requirements on the environmental protection of production enterprises in various industries. Chemical enterprises have undergone strict environmental inspection, many industries have stopped production from time to time for rectification, and many enterprises need rectification. There should be a certain demand for environmental protection products in terms of environmental protection. Water treatment products are limited due to their application, Compared with atmospheric emissions, the demand for purification products may be slightly lower. According to a number of enterprises, this year’s demand has been average, strict environmental inspection, repeated production stoppage and rectification, enterprises are under great pressure, and small enterprises may be eliminated. So far this month, the production is normal, the inventory is high, and the demand has not changed effectively.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of the business community, the current demand is general and the inventory is sufficient. The price change of polyaluminum chloride mainly depends on the raw material cost. The raw material manufacturers are tight in supply and the price is relatively firm due to maintenance and other reasons. The price of liquefied gas for production fluctuates and rises. The cost of polyaluminum chloride rises compared with the previous period, and the price may temporarily maintain the current price, Follow up pay close attention to the demand situation and the price change of raw material cost.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus rose sharply this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 18666.67 yuan / ton last Friday and 25000 yuan / ton this Friday. The price rose by 32.51% in the week.

2、 Market analysis

In late May, the price of yellow phosphorus rose rapidly. Affected by drought, lack of water and power restriction in Yunnan, the power of yellow phosphorus enterprises in some areas was less than 20%! Recently, power rationing has not been alleviated, but has become more and more serious. All yellow phosphorus plants in Yunnan are temporarily shut down before June, but the specific start-up time is not yet determined. At present, the supply of yellow phosphorus market is further shrinking, which may continue to push up the price of yellow phosphorus. Up to now, Yunnan yellow phosphorus plant has been temporarily shut down before June, and the specific start-up time has not been determined. The mainstream price in Sichuan is about 25000 yuan / ton; The mainstream price in Guizhou is about 25000 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, in late May, the overall domestic phosphorus ore market continued to maintain a high consolidation operation, the overall market trading atmosphere was good, the downstream orders were relatively stable, and the shipment of the industry was normal. Guizhou’s phosphorus ore market is in a high level of consolidation and operation. The operating rate of enterprises in Guizhou is low, the inventory of phosphorus ore is low, and the spot supply is tight. Most of Guizhou’s mining enterprises keep high and firm quotation, and the market transaction price is generally high. According to the data monitoring of business society, as of May 27, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in mainstream areas in China was around 510 yuan / ton, compared with the price on May 1, The average price increased by 30 yuan / ton, or 6.25%, up 30.21% compared with the same period last year. Business community phosphorus ore analysts believe that: at present, the overall market trading atmosphere is good, the domestic phosphorus ore market will continue to be strong in the short term.

In terms of coke, according to the price monitoring of the business association, the price of secondary metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 2720 yuan / ton on May 27. Since the eighth round of increase and fall of coking enterprises on May 19, the coke market has maintained a high consolidation trend for a week. During this period, although the ninth round of increase and the first round of increase and fall started at the same time, they did not fall, and the coke steel game continued. Today, the coke market of Shandong Port and port is weak. At present, the mainstream ex warehouse price of quasi first grade metallurgical coke in port area is about 2600 yuan / ton, and the price of first grade coke is 2700 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the previous trading day, and the inventory of two ports is declining. The overall port mentality is weak, the shipping intention of the traders is strong, some transactions are at low prices, the overall trading atmosphere is weak, and the market atmosphere is weak, the traders’ willingness to gather at the port is low. Business analysts believe that at present, traders have a strong fear of heights, and the driving force of fundamentals is limited. With the support of downstream demand, coke prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term.

In terms of demand, the phosphoric acid Market in May was relatively stable in the first half of the month, and fluctuated in a narrow range in the second half of the month. The price is expected to rise in the short term. Glyphosate prices continued to rise, the acceptance of high price yellow phosphorus was acceptable, which played a certain role in boosting the price of yellow phosphorus.

3、 Future forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the chemical branch of business society believe that the price of yellow phosphorus will rise this week. The power supply in Yunnan was limited, and all yellow phosphorus plants were shut down. The supply of yellow phosphorus market further contracted, and the shortage of spot goods intensified. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will continue to rise in the short term.

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price trend of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid declined in May. By the end of the month, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 10180 yuan / ton, 3.56% lower than 10555.56 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 18.65% higher than the same period last year.

The price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid declined in May. So far, the mainstream price of domestic hydrofluoric acid in various regions is 9500-9800 yuan / ton. Some manufacturers’ quotations are higher than the market price. The actual transaction market on the floor is weak. The domestic hydrofluoric acid price mainly declined. The domestic hydrofluoric acid spot supply has increased, and the price trend on the floor has dropped.

In May, the domestic hydrofluoric acid spot supply was sufficient, and some hydrofluoric acid plants in the field were restarted, but the price of upstream raw materials of hydrofluoric acid dropped slightly. So far, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the southern region is 9500-9800 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 9400-9800 yuan / ton. In May, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market mainly declined, and the manufacturers reported that the recent delivery situation was not good, but the price of hydrofluoric acid market still faced downward pressure in the later period.

In May, the market price of fluorite, the raw material of hydrofluoric acid, declined slightly. By the end of the month, the domestic price of fluorite was 2622.22 yuan / ton, with a price decrease of 1.46%. Recently, the domestic spot supply of fluorite was normal. However, with the rising temperature, some manufacturers in northern China started their plants gradually. However, recently, the environmental protection supervision was strict, and the affected plants in some areas stopped, In May, the price trend of domestic fluorite decreased slightly. By the end of the month, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiations was 2400-2600 yuan / ton. The falling price of fluorite on the floor was due to the bad effect of hydrofluoric acid market, and the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market was lower.

In May, the market of domestic refrigerants rose slightly. Recently, the sales situation of the automobile industry is normal. The market of refrigerants has risen slightly. The demand is mainly based on demand. The trend of the refrigerant industry has not changed much. The market of various types of refrigerants has not changed much. However, the manufacturers are under pressure in shipment and sales. In addition, the price of raw material hydrofluoric acid has declined, which has lost some cost support, The output of downstream air conditioning is low, the demand is scarce, and the price of refrigerant changes little. On the whole, negative factors dominate the refrigerant market, and the prices of hydrofluoric acid and chloroform are lower, which makes the refrigerant industry under pressure. At present, the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, the market price trend rises slightly, but the downstream receiving capacity is limited, there is a lot of wait-and-see mood, the shipment situation of the goods holders is normal, and the mainstream of on-site negotiations is 16500-17500 yuan / ton. Domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low load, and the price trend of R134a rises slightly. However, the current demand procurement is the main, the downstream enterprises are not high, and the traders are in a strong wait-and-see mood. At present, the market quotation of R134a is mostly in the range of 21000-24000 yuan / ton, but the transaction atmosphere is general, and the downstream refrigerant market rises slightly, but the hydrofluoric acid market is not good, and the price trend declines.

Judging from the industrial chain chart, the price trend of fluorine chemical industry is declining, the price of raw material fluorite is falling, and the price of downstream refrigerant products is rising slightly. In addition, the recent overhaul and restart of some domestic hydrofluoric acid devices has increased the spot supply on the floor. Affected by multiple negative factors, Chen Ling, hydrofluoric acid analyst of business society, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may fall slightly.

According to the monitoring data of the business news agency, the external price of ethylene has dropped recently. On May 24, the price was $1168.25/ton, and on May 27, the average price of ethylene was $1165.50/ton, down 0.32%. The current price has dropped 2.61% month on month, and the current price has increased 98.21% year on year.

In the near future, the overall external ethylene market showed a downward trend. Asia’s ethylene market fell, with CFR closing at US $1063-1069 per ton in Northeast Asia and US $1008-1014 per ton in Southeast Asia as of the 26th. The price of ethylene market in Europe fluctuated slightly. As of the 26th, FD closed at US $1284-1298 / T in northwest Europe and CIF closed at US $1284-1293 / T in northwest Europe. The price of ethylene in the U.S. rose. As of the 26th, the price was 798-810 U.S. dollars / ton. In recent years, the external market of ethylene fluctuated. Generally speaking, the trading atmosphere of the whole external market of ethylene in the near future was general, the transaction was light, and the market fluctuated and fell.

International: on May 26, international oil prices rose slightly. The settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market was US $66.21/barrel, up 0.14 US dollars or 0.2%. Brent crude oil futures market settlement price of the main contract at 68.87 U.S. dollars / barrel, or 0.22 U.S. dollars or 0.3%, on Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) data bring good, crude oil inventory decline, combined with the arrival of North America driving season, market demand improvement is expected to strengthen, overshadowed the market’s worries about Iran’s crude oil back to the international market.

Recently, the Styrene Market in North China has been weakening. Qingdao refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. and Qilu Petrochemical Co., Ltd. offer 9950 yuan / ton today. On the cost side, crude oil rose, pure benzene fell, pure benzene maintenance unit restarted, supply rebounded, but the overall gap between supply and demand remained. Styrene port inventory continued to decline, the arrival of large ships this week was postponed to early June, and port inventory is expected to continue to decline. In terms of domestic production capacity, the styrene operating rate has been increased to 83.43%, and the early maintenance units have been restarted one after another. The new unit is expected to be put into production at the end of May with 120000 tons / year of Sinochem Hongrun, and the supply will increase in June. In addition, with the improvement of styrene profits, the maintenance of some units in Tianjin Dagu, Jilin Petrochemical and South Korea are expected to be delayed, and the tight spot situation will be eased, Supply is gradually easing. On the downstream side, the production and sales of the downstream are in the doldrums, resisting high price raw materials, and some are waiting to fall.

Ethylene analysts of business society chemical branch think: at present, the crude oil market is optimistic about the lifting of sanctions against Iran by the United States, but the decline of crude oil storage in the United States is relatively fast, and the crude oil market may rise due to the supply and demand. Therefore, data analysts of business society expect that the external price of ethylene will mainly rise in the future.

Recently, the domestic liquid ammonia market has been pushing up. According to the monitoring of the business society, the price increase mode of liquid ammonia has been started since last week. Since the beginning of last week, the domestic liquid ammonia has risen by more than 5%. At present, the market price has exceeded 4000, reaching the highest level of more than three years. The soaring price of liquid ammonia is the result of the double effects of cost push and supply-demand tension.

After May 1, with the increase of inflation expectation, with the domestic commodities ushering in a new round of rising cycle, especially the upstream coal and methanol products of liquid ammonia have increased sharply. At first, the price of liquid ammonia did not follow up significantly. Even in the first week after the festival, liquid ammonia was still subject to high opening rate of domestic units, and the increase of discharge output led to a high inventory, and a short wave of downward trend occurred. However, in the week of May 11, urea price continued to rise sharply, and the liquid ammonia price also flew up one week later.

At the cost end, the domestic coal market after the saving was booming. As of May 18, the price of power coal rose 14.07%, and the price of power coal had risen by more than 70% since the beginning of March, which was more than 100% higher than that of the same period last year; Coking coal also increased by 11.8%. Although the price of coal has been gradually falling down due to the influence of “stable price of supply and supply”, it is still relatively high at present, and the cost pressure is transmitted to the downstream（ See the above figure)

Methanol also felt the pressure from upstream, the supply and demand of raw coal was tight, which promoted the cost of coal to methanol. According to the monitoring of business society, as of May 18, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises in Shandong Province was 2730 yuan / ton, with the price rising 14.23% on a month-on-year basis, and a year-on-year increase of 64.71%. Methanol has seen a peak fall in the last week, but the price is still at a relatively high level in history（ See the above figure)

From the supply side, the failure of ammonia enterprises and routine maintenance are also beneficial to the price of liquid ammonia. Recently, the urea market has soared, and the low ammonia enterprises are mainly turning to urea, which aggravates the shortage of liquid ammonia. Jiangsu Hengsheng produces all urea and the combined unit is overhauled. The market supply tension is difficult to ease.

Downstream, the urea period is linked with spot, and the price of the last three weeks has been rising continuously. According to the monitoring of the business society, urea increased by more than 8% from May 10 to 26. The main reason is that the agricultural demand of all regions is followed up; The improvement of the starting rate of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plant drives the urea market to return to the warm. The supply side of Shandong, Xinjiang, Shaanxi and other parts of the enterprise equipment maintenance, supply tight. In addition, on May 18, RCF issued a new round of urea import bidding, and opened on May 25, which saw bullish expectations rising.

In terms of compound fertilizer, the demand for agriculture has recovered, the price of agricultural products increased, the planting area increased, and the fertilizer market was favorable. However, the main factor is the tight supply side. According to the monitoring of business society, ammonium phosphate has gained a strong trend in recent week, and it rose continuously from 20 to 26 days, up 3.29%.

In the future, the problem of tight domestic supply is difficult to alleviate rapidly in the near future. In addition, the high upstream raw material price may maintain high liquid ammonia price, and it is not ruled out that the possibility of continuing to rush.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose first and then fell this week. This week, the average ex factory quotation price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China rose from 4716.67 yuan / ton on May 17 to 4733.33 yuan / ton on May 19, an increase of 0.35%, and then fell to 4700 yuan / ton on May 21, a decrease of 33.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.70%, a year-on-year increase of 91.06%. Overall, the calcium carbide market fell this week, with the calcium carbide commodity index at 123.14 on May 21.

The upstream support is strong, the downstream maintenance is increased, and the procurement is reduced

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week: oviganone’s quotation of calcium carbide this weekend was 4700 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton compared with that at the beginning of the week; The price of calcium carbide offered by Inner Mongolia Zoomlion this weekend is 4700 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Ningxia Xingping this weekend calcium carbide offer for 4700 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the offer is temporarily stable.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of calcium carbide, the price of raw materials in the upstream market was high this week. The quotation of small materials this weekend is 1400 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; At the end of this week, the quotation of Sinochem is 1400 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of this week; The price of Dali is 1500 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of this week. The price of raw materials in the upstream was high and the cost support was strong, which had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market, PVC factory prices fell slightly this week. This week’s PVC quotation fell from 9250.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 9237.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.14%, up 54.47% year on year. This week, PVC prices fell slightly, the market is general, coupled with the increase of PVC maintenance, the downstream of calcium carbide purchasing enthusiasm weakened, overall, this week’s PVC market has a negative impact on calcium carbide prices.

Lower demand, the market fell slightly concussion

In late May, the calcium carbide market fluctuated slightly and fell mainly. The price of raw material blue carbon was high and the cost of calcium carbide was well supported. But downstream PVC maintenance increased, the market began to fall slightly. It is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may drop slightly in late May.

From the trend chart, it can be seen that the price of domestic rare earth products has stopped falling and recovered, most of the prices of rare earth products are weak, and the prices of Heavy Rare Earth Terbium series and dysprosium series are rising. As of May 24, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.375 million yuan / ton; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.355 million yuan / ton, and that of dysprosium metal was 3.225 million yuan / ton. The domestic price of terbium series rose. On the 24th, the domestic price of terbium oxide was 6.5 million yuan / ton, and that of metal terbium was 8.05 million yuan / ton.

The main reason for the price of domestic heavy rare earth market to stop falling and recover is that the contradiction between supply and demand has been eased.

On the supply side: the situation in Myanmar remains the same. The global supply of rare earth is relatively concentrated, and Myanmar is one of the production areas next only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on the domestic heavy rare earth market products. The import source has decreased significantly. The sharp contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic heavy rare earth market has led to the continuous rise of heavy rare earth prices. In addition, the domestic production of heavy rare earth is normal, so it can be said that the domestic demand for heavy rare earth is weak. The domestic rare earth purchase and storage plan is a good support for the domestic price of heavy rare earth. In the purchase and storage plan, medium and heavy rare earth accounts for a large proportion of the annual output. Recently, the domestic market supply of heavy rare earth is still tight, and the price of heavy rare earth is supported to a certain extent, and the market price rebounds slightly.

Demand: the downstream demand is relatively normal, and the demand for new energy vehicles is still high. The main rare earth raw materials of high performance NdFeB are light rare earth praseodymium neodymium oxide, heavy rare earth dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide, which are used in new energy vehicles, wind power, energy-saving frequency conversion air conditioning, traditional vehicles and other fields. According to statistics, new energy vehicles continue to break the historical record of single month sales. According to the data released by the China Automobile Industry Association, the national automobile industry continued to maintain a good development trend in April, with the production and sales of 2.234 million and 2.252 million vehicles respectively, down 9.3% and 10.8% on a month on month basis, and up 6.3% and 8.6% on a year-on-year basis; The overall performance of new energy vehicle production and sales is still better than that of the industry, with monthly production and sales of more than 200000 vehicles. The downstream demand is fair, the demand gap of heavy rare earth has always existed, and the market price of medium and heavy rare earth has stopped falling and recovered.

According to the monitoring of the business society, the price index of the domestic rare earth market rose slightly. According to the rare earth plate index of the business society, the rare earth index on May 24 was 489 points, up 2 points from yesterday, down 51.10% from the highest point of 1000 points in the cycle (2011-12-06), and up 80.44% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015（ Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

The domestic rare earth index began to fall in mid March, and the domestic light rare earth market price is still at a low level recently. Domestic sales of new energy vehicles have increased, and terminal industries such as wind power and electronic products have developed rapidly. As the epidemic situation slows down, downstream manufacturers’ capacity utilization rate continues, and demand is mainly based on demand procurement. The demand for NdFeB is still high. The high prosperity of new energy vehicles and consumer electronics industry has also boosted the price of heavy rare earths to rise slightly. According to the data, the global demand for high-performance NdFeB is mainly concentrated in the automotive sector (nearly 40% for traditional vehicles and 12% for new energy vehicles), while the rest, such as wind power, consumer electronics, variable frequency air conditioning and energy-saving electrical appliances, account for 8% – 10%. The downstream demand remains high, but in the early stage, the manufacturers are actively preparing goods, and the on-site inventory increases, which leads to the downstream procurement is not active, and the market price of light rare earth remains low.

In 2021, the first batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation total amount control indicators increased significantly, which was related to the strong downstream demand. The Ministry of natural resources issued the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining in 2021. In 2021, the total amount control indicators of the first batch of rare earth mines (rare earth oxide REO, the same below) in China were 84000 tons, including 11490 tons of ionic (mainly medium and heavy rare earth) rare earth mines, The index of rock ore type (light) rare earth ore is 72510 tons. The first batch of tungsten concentrate (tungsten trioxide content 65%, the same below) has a total mining control index of 63000 tons, of which the main mining index is 46890 tons and the comprehensive utilization index is 16110 tons. In 2021, we will continue to control the total amount of rare earth and tungsten mining, which is conducive to the green development of the domestic rare earth industry.

As the heat of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of Rare Earth continues to grow, it is expected to drive demand growth. The global supply gap of rare earth is expected to continue to expand. The domestic demand for rare earth remains at a high level, and the domestic supply of rare earth starts to work normally. However, the recent on-site transaction is poor and the procurement is not active, Chen Ling, an analyst at business news agency, predicts that the market price of rare earth in the later period may remain low in the short term, while the market price of dysprosium series may rise.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business association, on May 21, the average price of salicylic acid (industrial grade) mainstream manufacturers was 14666.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, up 1.27% on a month on month basis, and the price was the same as that at the same period last year. On May 21, the salicylic acid commodity index was 87.30, flat with yesterday, down 13.22% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.60 (2011-09-19), and up 22.22% from the lowest point of 71.43 on March 29, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

2、 Market analysis

This week, the salicylic acid market was stable, most of the enterprises shipped at a stable price, and individual enterprises increased by 100-200 yuan / ton, with a small range. The price of raw material phenol is high, the cost support is acceptable, and the domestic demand is steadily advancing, but the export is weak, the orders are reduced, and the delivery and investment are poor. The operators wait and see the market, and there is no price adjustment plan for the time being. Up to now, the quotations of salicylic acid industrial grade enterprises are mostly in the range of 13000-15500 yuan / ton, the quotations of pharmaceutical grade enterprises are mostly in the range of 23000-26000 yuan / ton, and the quotations of sublimation grade enterprises are mostly in the range of 18500-20000 yuan / ton. There is no obvious fluctuation in the quotations of salicylic acid at all levels.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic phenol Market is running at a high price. The on-site negotiations are slightly flat, and the price of the carrier is low. The phenol market still maintains a strong momentum. The shipment is general, the market inquiry increases, but the actual orders are general. The terminal is mainly just need to follow up, and there is a little profit during the period. The business community expects that the domestic phenol market will advance smoothly today, The market negotiation is 9700-9800 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Salicylic acid analysts of business news agency think: at present, the price of raw materials is stable, but it is still at a high level, and the cost support is strong. Salicylic acid enterprises are stable in price, and there is little change. It is expected that the market will run smoothly in the short term.

According to the monitoring of business society, the trend of domestic rare earth market price index continued to fall in the first half of May. The price of praseodymium and neodymium series rare earths in China fell sharply, while the price of heavy rare earths continued to fall. The domestic rare earth market is no longer prosperous. According to the rare earth plate index of business society, the rare earth index was 499 points on May 18, down 3 points from yesterday, Compared with the highest 1000 points in the cycle (2011-12-06), it decreased by 50.10%, and increased by 84.13% compared with the lowest 271 points on September 13, 2015（ Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

It can be clearly seen from the rare earth index chart that since May, the domestic rare earth prices have continued to decline. Recently, the prices of the mainstream commodities in the rare earth market have been declining, and the rare earth market has been falling continuously. In terms of products:

It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the domestic mainstream products such as neodymium oxide, metal neodymium, praseodymium neodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy, praseodymium oxide and metal praseodymium have been declining. As of May 19, the price of neodymium oxide in domestic rare earth was 512500 yuan / ton, down 5.53% compared with the price at the beginning of the month; The price of metal neodymium was 627500 yuan / ton, 8.73% lower than that at the beginning of the month; The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was 492500 yuan / ton, 9.55% lower than that at the beginning of the month; The price of PR nd alloy was 605000 yuan / ton, 8.33% lower than that at the beginning of the month; The price of praseodymium oxide was 517500 yuan / ton, 5.48% lower than that at the beginning of the month; The price of praseodymium metal was 665000 yuan / ton, 5.67% lower than that at the beginning of the month, and the domestic market trend of light rare earths dropped.

Recently, the rare earth market has been declining. According to the feedback of some enterprises, the overall transaction situation is not good, and the downstream permanent magnet manufacturers are not active in purchasing. However, in the early stage, the manufacturers are active in preparing goods, and the inventory on the floor has increased, which leads to the low enthusiasm of the downstream replenishment. As a result, the prices of mainstream rare earth products have declined. Sales of new energy vehicles have slowed down and the rare earth industry has been affected. The main rare earth raw materials of high performance NdFeB are light rare earth praseodymium neodymium oxide, heavy rare earth dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide, which are used in new energy vehicles, wind power, energy-saving frequency conversion air conditioning, traditional vehicles and other fields. According to statistics, new energy vehicles continue to break the historical record of single month sales. According to the data released by the China Automobile Industry Association, the national automobile industry continued to maintain a good development trend in April, with the production and sales of 2.234 million and 2.252 million vehicles respectively, down 9.3% and 10.8% on a month on month basis, and up 6.3% and 8.6% on a year-on-year basis; The overall performance of new energy vehicle production and sales is still better than that of the industry, with monthly production and sales of more than 200000 vehicles. The downstream is mainly purchased on demand, the market price of light rare earth is falling, and the market price of heavy rare earth is falling.

From the trend chart, it can be seen that the price trend of dysprosium Series in China has dropped sharply. As of the 19th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.315 million yuan / ton, which was 14.73% lower than that at the beginning of the month; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.295 million yuan / ton, down 14.84% since May, and the price of dysprosium metal was 3.175 million yuan / ton, down 7.97% since May; The domestic price of terbium series dropped sharply, with the domestic price of terbium oxide at 6.3 million yuan / ton and the price of metal terbium at 8.05 million yuan / ton. There are few transactions in the domestic rare earth market. The upper, middle and lower reaches of the market are mainly on the lookout. Traders tend to buy at a low price, and the market price of heavy rare earth keeps falling. However, Myanmar’s political situation is unstable, and the global supply of rare earth is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas second only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on the domestic heavy rare earth market products. The import source has decreased significantly. The supply of heavy rare earth in the market is general, but the downstream resistance is more serious, and the market price trend has dropped sharply.

Recently, the “notice on industrial energy conservation supervision in 2021″ stressed that enterprises in key industries such as iron and steel, non-ferrous metal smelting, petrochemical and chemical industry, building materials and so on should be comprehensively investigated, and special supervision on the implementation of mandatory energy consumption quota standards per unit product should be carried out, so as to finally achieve full coverage of energy conservation supervision of enterprises in key industries during the “14th five year plan”. Industry insiders believe that this reflects the strengthening of government control over the rare earth industry, which is conducive to the healthy development of the industry. Since 2021, the market of rare earth products has been objective, but the lower reaches of the business purchase significantly, resulting in the market price continued to decline.

In 2021, the first batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation total amount control indicators increased significantly, which was related to the strong downstream demand. The Ministry of natural resources issued the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining in 2021. In 2021, the total amount control indicators of the first batch of rare earth mines (rare earth oxide REO, the same below) in China were 84000 tons, including 11490 tons of ionic (mainly medium and heavy rare earth) rare earth mines, The index of rock ore type (light) rare earth ore is 72510 tons. The first batch of tungsten concentrate (tungsten trioxide content 65%, the same below) has a total mining control index of 63000 tons, of which the main mining index is 46890 tons and the comprehensive utilization index is 16110 tons. In 2021, the total amount of rare earth and tungsten mines will continue to be controlled, and the national policy is favorable. However, the demand for rare earth and tungsten mines is poor, the accumulation of reserves is serious, and the trend of some products in the rare earth market will decline sharply.

With the sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, the demand is general, but the domestic rare earth supply starts normally. In addition, the recent on-site transaction is not good, and the purchase is not active. Business analyst Chen Ling predicts that the market price of rare earth in the later period may continue to decline in the short term.

After the May Day holiday, the LPG market did not continue the downward trend at the end of April, but rebounded. However, on the whole, the civil gas market in Shandong Province after the holiday showed twists and turns, still rising compared with the beginning of the month. According to the data monitoring of business society, the average price of LPG in Shandong market was 4066.67 yuan / ton on May 5, and 4233.33 yuan / ton on May 17, with an increase of 4.10% during the period and 45.98% compared with the same period last year.

As of May 17, the mainstream prices of LPG in various regions of China are as follows:

Specifications type of shipping region Mainstream quotation

Civil gas Motor transport North China 4160-4300 yuan / ton

Civil gas Motor transport East China 4000-4250 yuan / ton

Civil gas Motor transport South China 3950-4100 yuan / ton

Civil gas Motor transport Shandong Province 4250-4300 yuan / ton

First of all, the market of Shandong civil gas after the festival. After the festival, the focus of Shandong civil gas has moved up, and the manufacturers have increased one after another. The main reasons for the rise after the festival are as follows: first, the international crude oil price maintains a small rising trend after the festival, and the news has brought some positive support to the LPG market. Second, there is a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream after the festival. The enthusiasm for entering the market is good, and the transportation is limited during the holiday period. The shipping atmosphere of manufacturers has improved significantly during the holiday period. The mentality is firm, and the price is mainly adjusted. However, as the price rose to a relatively high level, the market dropped in the middle of May. Due to little change in supply in Shandong, the supply in the region was relatively sufficient, and the international crude oil fell sharply on the 14th, and the downstream also had limited ability to accept high prices. With the end of replenishment, one after another withdrew from the market to wait and see, the market transaction atmosphere declined, the quotation of manufacturers became loose, and the shipment was mainly made with a small margin of profit. Entering this week (May 17), the price of LPG rose again. Over the weekend, the price of LPG in Shandong continued to rise, and the LPG futures market also rose sharply. Most of the manufacturers’ inventories were in a controllable state. The civil gas in Shandong went up, but the rise was not large. Due to the obvious warming of the weather, the terminal consumption slowed down, which brought some restraint to the market.

Looking at the futures market, the sharp rise of LPG futures market on the 17th brought some positive support to the spot market. On May 17, the opening price of LPG futures contract 2106 was 4150, the highest price was 4328, the lowest price was 4142, the closing price was 4248, the former settlement price was 4107, the settlement price was 4254, up 141, or 4.75%, the trading volume was 91531, the position was 24601, and the daily increase was – 3249（ Quotation unit: yuan / ton)

Generally speaking, the current price of Shandong civil gas is relatively high, the downstream has some resistance to the price, the enthusiasm to enter the market is general, and the weather and temperature are rising, and the demand is expected to weaken in the later stage. At present, the overall inventory of manufacturers is under control, and there is no obvious pressure on the inventory. It is expected that the price of Shandong civil gas market will be relatively strong in the short term, and there is still the possibility of decline in the long term.