Yesterday, the price of ethylene oxide was lowered. The latest ex factory price in East China, North China, South China and Northeast China was 6900 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price in Central China was 7000 yuan / ton.

Upstream, on Monday, the CIF price of imported crude oil in Qingdao rose with the rise of the international crude oil futures market. The geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine ignited concerns about supply interruption and boosted oil prices. Despite the strength of crude oil, near the domestic Spring Festival, the ethylene market has sufficient supply, coupled with the bearish demand trend, and the market price has declined. The external price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was 925 US dollars / ton, down 25 US dollars / ton compared with the price on the previous trading day; The external price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was US $965 / ton. The quotation of Luxi Chemical and Jinshan Lianmao ethylene today was 7300 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the previous trading day.

Downstream, after a brief rebound in the monomer market yesterday morning, the market was impacted by the news of ethylene oxide falling price, and the price returned to the bottom for consolidation. At present, most downstream factories are waiting and waiting, and there is great pressure for manufacturers to support the market.

In terms of ethylene oxide, Sri Lanka has a short stop. It is expected to restart on the 26th. The restart of Yangzi, Zhenhai and Fude units is imminent. The supply side will be in large quantities. There are loose expectations for the supply side in East China.

Temporarily stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the domestic market price of maleic anhydride fell slightly this week. As of January 16, the average price of benzene hydrogenation maleic anhydride remained at 11166.67 yuan / ton, down 4.56% from the average price of 11700.00 yuan / ton on January 10, down 36.43% from the same period last month, and there was a rebound trend in the second half of the week.

On January 16, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 105.19, the same as yesterday, down 36.80% from the highest point of 166.43 in the cycle (2021-12-15), and up 105.53% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The domestic benzene maleic anhydride market started steadily this week. Recently, the operating rate of the downstream unsaturated resin market has declined, successively entering the shutdown period, and the purchasing sentiment is general. As of the 16th, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 10700 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu was about 10700 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi was about 11000 yuan / ton, that in Hebei was about 11000 yuan / ton, and that in South China was about 10700 yuan / ton. In the second half of the week, the domestic maleic anhydride market price callback, the factory has the intention to support the price, the spot is tight, and the transaction is positive.

Upstream, the price of pure benzene rose continuously this week. The average price of pure benzene was 7280 yuan / ton on January 7 and 7530 yuan / ton on January 14, an increase of 250 yuan / ton or 3.43% over last week. The market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong rose this week, at 7100 yuan / ton last weekend and 7400 yuan / ton this weekend, up 300 yuan / ton. In terms of n-butane, the price in Shandong was 5610.00 yuan / ton as of January 16.

3、 Future forecast

According to the maleic anhydride product analysts of business society, the domestic maleic anhydride market price has been corrected in the second half of this week. The factory has the intention to support the price, the spot is tight, and the transaction is positive. However, the downstream resin is close to the shutdown cycle, the operating rate is down, and it just needs to slow down. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may be sorted out in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business society, on January 14, the average price of salicylic acid (industrial grade) mainstream manufacturers was 17000 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week, up 0.99% compared with the beginning of the month, and up 22.01% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The salicylic acid market has operated steadily this week, and the price of raw phenol has increased recently. At present, the negotiated price reference is 11000-11200 yuan / ton, and the cost support has been strengthened. However, after the early increase, salicylic acid enterprises mostly focus on staying stable and waiting, and basically do not plan to make a significant price adjustment. Near the end of the year, the downstream demand has increased, the operator’s mentality is positive, and the market focus has moved upward. Up to now, the quotation of domestic salicylic acid industrial enterprises is mostly in the range of 14000-19000 yuan / ton, the quotation of pharmaceutical grade is mostly in the range of 24000-27000 yuan / ton, and the quotation of sublimation grade is mostly in the range of 20000-23000 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, on January 12, the focus of the domestic phenol Market weakened. The negotiation reference in East China was 11100 yuan / ton, and the factory quotation was mainly 11200 yuan / ton. On January 11, the market center weakened, and the negotiation price reference was 11000-11200 yuan / ton. The enthusiasm of terminal enterprises was not high. The cargo holders declined slightly in the morning, made positive profits and shipped goods, and the focus decreased significantly in the afternoon.

3、 Future forecast

The salicylic acid analyst of business agency believes that the current rise in raw material prices and good downstream demand support the upward shift of the focus of the salicylic acid market. However, after the early rise, most salicylic acid enterprises focus on the wait-and-see market. It is expected that the salicylic acid market will remain stable in the short term, with some upward expectations.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic PA66 market was weak in early January, and the spot prices of various brands fell. As of January 13, the ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 36250 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of – 0.68% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in the upstream, the price of adipic acid in China is relatively strong, mainly finishing, the price of raw material pure benzene is strong, and the cost side is slightly improved. However, large early maintenance plants have returned to work one after another, and the market supply is still abundant. The inventory of manufacturers and dealers increased, mainly making profit and shipping due to inventory pressure, and the downstream demand maintained rigid demand. Adiponitrile has not improved much. The loss of production capacity of large international factories and the shortage of overseas transportation capacity are still affecting the market, and the supply shortage has not improved. Due to the high dependence on imports of adiponitrile, the production load of domestic PA66 enterprises is restricted by adiponitrile.

The upstream raw material adipic acid is rising steadily, the change of adiponitrile is limited, and the cost side support of PA66 is acceptable. At present, the operating rate of the industry has recovered compared with that in the early stage, but the tight demand pattern of adiponitrile remains, and the operating rate of domestic PA66 industry is not high. The inventory in each port is insufficient. Affected by international health events, the overseas systematic transportation capacity is insufficient, and the domestic goods are in a long-term shortage situation. In terms of demand, buyers follow up slowly with goods, and there is great resistance to the transaction of high price goods. In addition, enterprises have holidays before the festival, the demand is gradually weakened, the seller’s mentality is loose, and the offer is weak.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA66 was weak in early January. The shortage of adiponitrile at the raw material end has not been improved, and the adipic acid market is strong. The low load of PA66 enterprise due to material shortage has increased compared with that in the early stage, and the supply side’s support for spot goods is acceptable. However, downstream users have a deep resistance to high price sources, and the trading atmosphere on the floor is poor. The downstream user’s goods preparation tide is in the late stage, and it is expected that PA66 may continue to adjust and operate in a weak position in the near future.

Price: industrial grade lithium carbonate 312600 yuan / ton, battery grade lithium carbonate 335000 yuan / ton

Analysis: the price of lithium carbonate has been rising rapidly recently. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, the maintenance period of lithium salt manufacturers has led to the continuous reduction of lithium salt output, but the price of lithium salt continues to rise under the background of strong downstream stock demand. At present, the downstream goods preparation in February and March in the market is slightly general, coupled with a small supply in the market, which will continue to promote the continuous rise of lithium salt prices

Forecast: at present, the output of lithium carbonate has declined for nine consecutive weeks, the gap between supply and demand is still widening, and the demand side of cathode material production scheduling still maintains a high boom. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will rise strongly in the short term.

Aluminum prices continued to rise on the 11th

According to the data of business agency, on January 11, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 21633.33 yuan / ton, and yesterday’s average market price was 21240 yuan / ton, up 1.85%; Compared with the average market price of 20370 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (January 1), an increase of 6.20%.

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 24240 yuan / ton, which has fallen by 10.75% from the peak value recently. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 15.73% recently.

Main cause of recovery

The main reasons for the recovery of aluminum prices in this round: mainly based on the improvement of supply expectations, especially the European energy crisis, the rise of electricity prices caused by natural gas factors, resulting in the reduction of production of many aluminum plants in Europe; In addition, the domestic supply side reform has achieved remarkable results in previous years, and the production capacity has basically formed a ceiling. In recent 1-2 years, the production has also been affected by the “carbon peak” and “carbon neutralization”. Recently, the social inventory data of aluminum ingots have improved. As of the 10th, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 752000 tons, down 24000 tons from last Thursday; The increase in downstream enquiries and the superposition of the acceleration effect before the aluminum terminal consumption Festival have supported the overall strong operation of domestic aluminum prices in the near future.

Future forecast

Near the Spring Festival, the cyclical accumulation effect before and after the festival tests the market tolerance. The recent aluminum price trend is good, but it should not be too high. It is expected that the vibration is strong and the operation is dominated.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of January 10, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 15900.00 yuan / ton. The DMF price fluctuated upward this week, which remained stable compared with the same period last week, and the DMF trend was stable, medium and strong in the short term.

This week, the DMF market operates smoothly, the price remains stable, and the focus of negotiation is flat. Compared with the same period last week, the price has not changed. At present, the manufacturer has positive shipments, general inventory, stable operating rate, no pressure on inventory, and the downstream just needs to purchase.

Upstream methanol: the trend is mainly stable. There is no obvious negotiation on the methanol market in Dongying, Shandong. Considering the impact of public health events, it is not ruled out that the price may continue to rise. The offer price of methanol in southern Shandong is 2530 yuan / ton, and the factory provides cash exchange nearby. The offer price of local goods in Linyi is about 2540 yuan / ton, which is sent to cash exchange. Logistics offers are rare. During the negotiation, downstream purchase on demand.

On January 9, the chemical index was 1102 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 21.29% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 84.28% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

DMF analysts of business agency believe that the trend of DMF is stable and strong in the short term. (to know more about the latest industry market trends, welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business community, obtain commodity information, and grasp the price of commodities).

The latest p value price of ethylene oxide on January 7 was 7300 yuan / ton.

Upstream ethylene stabilized. The external price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was US $1020 / T, that in Southeast Asia was US $1005 / T, and that of Jinshan Lianmao ethylene was 8000 yuan / T today, which was the same as that of the previous trading day.

The downstream monomer is light, the stock market has not started yet, the demand is poor, and there are few inquiries. In particular, the market demand in Northeast China has basically stagnated, the temperature in North China has dropped significantly, the market demand is coming to an end, some mixing plants have been shut down for holidays, and only a few key projects are still catching up. In some areas, due to the impact of environmental protection early warning, vehicle transportation and site construction are limited. Compared with the beginning of the week, hPEG decreased by 1.16%; TPEG fell 1.14%; Monoethanolamine; Diethanolamine; Triethanolamine was flat; AEO-9 fell 0.8%.

Ethylene oxide production and sales are under obvious pressure in the short term, and market uncertainties remain. Market participants predict that there may still be room for reduction before the festival, so it is necessary to pay close attention to the latest news guidelines of the factory.

Aluminum prices rose on the 6th

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on January 6 was 20763.33 yuan / ton, up 2.16% from the average market price of 20323.33 yuan / ton on January 5; Compared with the average market price of 18900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (December 1), an increase of 9.86%.

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 24240 yuan / ton, which has fallen by 14.34% from the peak value recently. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 11.07% recently.

Aluminum price

The recent recovery of aluminum prices is mainly based on the improvement of supply expectations, especially the energy crisis in Europe. Natural gas factors led to the rise of electricity prices, which led to the reduction of production of many aluminum plants in Europe; In addition, the domestic supply side reform has achieved remarkable results in previous years, and the production capacity has basically formed a ceiling. In recent 1-2 years, the production has also been affected by the “carbon peak” and “carbon neutralization”.

According to the data, the removal of aluminum ingots to the warehouse is good, the domestic aluminum price has been callback sideways for a long time, the amount of downstream inquiries has increased, and the acceleration effect before the aluminum terminal consumption Festival has been superimposed, supporting the overall strong operation of domestic aluminum price in the near future.

In 2021, the domestic ethyl acetate Market generally showed a fluctuating upward trend. Specifically, it rose in the first half of the year. There was a correction in the market from July to August, and it rose sharply in September, reaching a new high of more than five years. The market gradually fell in the fourth quarter and the market returned to rationality. According to the monitoring of business society, the annual increase of ethyl acetate reached 24.15%. The main reason is that the upstream cost is good and the downstream demand is improved.

Let’s take a look at the ethyl acetate Market in stages:

In the first half of the year, the domestic ethyl acetate Market rose in shock, and the price rose from the lowest 6600 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 9800 yuan / ton in mid May, an increase of 3200 yuan / ton or 48.5%. Firstly, the domestic ethyl acetate Market is mainly driven by the price of raw acetic acid. In particular, the price of acetic acid in China has continued to rise since the fourth quarter of 2020. In the first half of this year, domestic acetic acid continued to rise, with an increase of more than 70% in the first half of this year. Affected by the shortage of supply, the price in Jiangsu once exceeded the 8000 mark, reaching the highest level in recent ten years. The sharp rise of acetic acid directly drives the downstream ethyl ester to rise. However, it is obvious that the increase of ethyl ester is far less than that of acetic acid. Therefore, ethyl ester manufacturers have been in the stage of loss for a long time. In terms of demand, the market recovered gradually in the later stage of the epidemic, the downstream demand increased, the rigid demand for raw materials in the terminal market was still in progress, and the output of ethyl acetate was significantly higher than that of last year. This year, the output of ethyl acetate was about 900000 tons, up 12.5% year-on-year.

7. In August, the price of ethyl acetate began to fall, and the price fell from the highest point of 9800 yuan to 7200 yuan, a decrease of more than 17%. This period of time is in the traditional off-season of the market, and the downstream demand slows down. At the same time, the repeated epidemic situation in Jiangsu and other places has brought certain restrictions to market transportation. The shipment of manufacturers has been affected, and the price has begun to fall sharply. At the same time, it is also the resistance of the downstream that forces the high price.

Then, September ushered in the largest increase of the whole year. According to the monitoring of business society, ethyl acetate rose by 30% in less than a month from September 1 to 24. The price reached the highest point of the whole year, 10850 yuan / ton, which is also the highest point in recent five years. On the one hand, “golden nine” traditional consumption peak season. The main reason is that the short-term serious supply shortage has brought about the rapid development of prices. With the implementation of the dual control policy, in September, ethyl acetate units in Shandong, Jiangsu and South China markets stopped or reduced their load in a large area, and the overall operating rate of the market fell to an unprecedented low, less than 30%. At the same time, the price of raw acetic acid rose sharply and the cost soared. And downstream factories prepare goods before the festival, and the downstream demand has increased unabated. Multiple positive factors helped the ethyl ester Market reach a new high.

In the fourth quarter, the ethyl acetate market began to callback, and the price fell all the way, from 10850 yuan to 8800 yuan / ton. The decrease was about 2000 yuan. On the one hand, acetic acid opens the downward channel, which is bad for the downstream ethyl ester. More importantly, the contradiction between market supply and demand is prominent, and the increase of supply pressure leads to the continuous price reduction and inventory arrangement of enterprises, and the market price keeps falling. Although the Thorpe unit was overhauled in November, the operating rate of domestic units was generally high and the market supply was sufficient. However, affected by the weather, the terminal enterprises are in the off-season of production, the new orders are limited, and the downstream procurement slows down gradually, which brings bad news to ethyl acetate. The contradiction between supply and demand has led to a long-term decline in the price of ethyl acetate.

2022 outlook

In terms of cost, there may be more new capacity of glacial acetic acid in the upstream in the future, which is expected to suppress the price in the future, which will alleviate the profit situation of ethyl ester plants in the downstream to a certain extent. At the same time, the price of acetic acid is expected to return to rationality, which will also suppress the price of ethyl acetate to a certain extent.

In terms of supply and demand, at present, the concentration of domestic ethyl acetate industry is high, and there is overcapacity. Although some enterprises have withdrawn from the market in recent years, the market supply pressure has been reduced. However, the pressure on the supply side has not been completely resolved in the future, and some production capacity still needs to be put into operation in the future. Zhuhai Qianxin ethyl acetate plant with an annual output of 300000 tons is planned to be put into operation in 2022. It is expected that the market supply will still be in a loose pattern in 2022. Domestic demand will continue to grow in 2022, but the increase is likely to slow down. It is comprehensively expected that the price of domestic ethyl acetate next year may be weaker than this year, and the amplitude will be further reduced.