Commodity market: according to the monitoring of business agency, the domestic natural rubber market was strong on June 9, with an increase of about 200 yuan / ton. The mainstream quotation of domestic natural rubber (standard I) in East China market was about 13140 yuan / ton, up 1.39% compared with the previous trading day and 4.7% year-on-year.

Key points of analysis: on the macro level, the international crude oil futures price continued to rise significantly on June 8. Under the expectation of tight supply, the US demand for gasoline increased unabated. Superimposed on the gradual recovery of China’s demand for oil, the oil market continued to heat up, and the rise of crude oil significantly boosted butadiene and synthetic rubber; In the context of the country’s sustained and stable economy, the national leaders required to further open up the main artery and microcirculation of transportation and logistics, strengthen the freight support of key industries, regions and enterprises, and benefit the tire configuration demand of passenger cars. On the supply side, the rainfall in Thailand is general, and the production in Yunnan Province of China is limited due to heavy rainfall. The production in Hainan Province has been partially cut, and the production is very limited; Recently, the price of local made thick glue in China has continued to decline. Some data show that the decline since June has reached nearly 4000 yuan / ton, a decline of about 20%. In terms of inventory, statistics show that the inventory of natural rubber general trade warehouse and bonded area in Qingdao has been continuously reduced. On the demand side, as of the week of May 31, the operating rate of domestic all steel tire production lines closed at 56.1% and that of semi steel tire production lines closed at 64.9%, with an overall year-on-year increase of +5.7%. With the introduction of policies to stimulate the consumption of passenger cars in various regions, the operating rate of semi steel tires has been significantly better than that of all steel tires, achieving a four week ring and year-on-year increase. In terms of futures, the external market continued to be strong, Shanghai Jiaotong rose in shock, and its positions increased significantly.

Future forecast: the macro policy will be improved, the consumption stimulating policy will be issued, and the goods circulation conditions will be improved; The output of new rubber is limited, and the spot inventory of Tianjiao continues to be low; After the resumption of work in Shanghai, the local inventory spread rapidly, which was beneficial to the circulation and procurement of natural rubber. Due to the high inventory of finished tires, the tires in the short term were mainly consumed inventory. Driven by the policy, the operating rate of the tire factory was more selective. It is expected that there will be a slight support in the short-term shock, and the focus will be on the impact of new rubber output on the market.