1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, copper prices first fell and then rose this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper price was 73266.67 yuan / ton, up 1.45% from 72220 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 9.16% year-on-year.

Copper weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of business society, in the past three months, it has risen by 7 and fell by 4 and 1. Recently, the overall trend of copper price is strong.

Supply and demand: the Bank of England announced that it would raise the benchmark interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75%, and said it may still need to raise interest rates further in the coming months. The European Central Bank said that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may trigger a new inflation trend and will change the policy direction if necessary. The utilization rate of copper concentrate capacity increased, and the supply of copper mine remained stable. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, from January to February this year, the growth rate of national real estate development investment maintained a positive growth, but the growth rate was 3.7%. With the growth of new energy vehicles and real estate investment, the recovery rate of copper demand may accelerate.

To sum up: the recent high copper price fell, crude oil continued to rise, the market still focused on the Russian Ukrainian war, and the low foreign inventory maintained stability. At present, the margin of domestic currency has improved, the M2 data fell in February, the market’s expectation of the Fed’s interest rate hike has become stronger, the macro multi space crisscross, the low domestic inventory, the low foreign output, and the short-term copper price may be strong.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic PA66 market trend is weak and stable this week, and the spot prices of various brands are basically sideways. As of March 17, the average ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 32250 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of – 0.77% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in the upstream, adipic acid, the raw material in the upstream, rose at a high level and then fell this week. The overall operation is volatile, the downstream procurement is rational, and the demand is not large for the time being. The change of adiponitrile market is limited, but the start-up of adiponitrile domestic production line is approaching, there is bad news on the spot price in the short term, the level of port arrival is general, and the overall support effect on PA66 spot is limited.

The price of adipic acid, the upstream raw material, fluctuated, the change of adiponitrile market was limited, and the cost side support of PA66 was general. At present, the operating rate of the industry is at a high level, and the load level of domestic PA66 industry is at a high level. The inventory position of the port is not high, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is general. In terms of demand, at present, terminal enterprises take goods to follow up, prefer to just need to maintain production, and their resistance to high price sources increases instead of decreasing. In addition, the health incident affected domestic logistics and the production of individual downstream factories, the shipment fluency of merchants was poor, the transaction resistance in the venue increased, and the mentality of sellers was affected. The range of offer negotiation this week is still large.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA66 is weak and sideways this week. The improvement of adiponitrile market on the raw material side is limited, the adipic acid market fluctuates, and the cost side support of PA66 is general. On the supply side, the load of PA66 enterprises is high, and the on-site spot and enterprise inventory are increasing. The terminal has a deep resistance to high price goods. Downstream demand continues to be sluggish and the market momentum is insufficient. It is expected that PA66 may maintain a weak market in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of March 16, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market is 13366 yuan / ton. Compared with March 16 (the ex factory price of butanone is 13166 yuan / ton), the average price is increased by 200 yuan / ton, or 1.52%. Compared with March 1 (the ex factory price of butanone is 12166 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 1200 yuan / ton, an increase of 9.86%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that the domestic butanone market is running upward in a narrow range this week. This week, the overall trading atmosphere of the domestic butanone market was general. Affected by the decline of logistics and crude oil, the downstream goods were prepared carefully, and the mentality of the operators was also affected. However, due to the impact of public health events, butanone shipments slowed down and the spot supply on the site was tight. Therefore, the intention of the factory to support the price remained. On the 15th and 16th of the week, some low-end quotations of butanone continued to rise slightly, The increase range is around 100-200 yuan / ton. As of the 16th, the ex factory price of domestic butanone is around 13000-13500 yuan / ton, and the increase during the week is around 1.5%. At present, there is insufficient downstream gas purchase, the on-site transaction is relatively cold, and the market transmission is deadlocked.

Upstream, on the 15th, the domestic liquefied gas market continued to weaken, and various regions successively reduced the ex factory quotation. The civil gas market in Shandong decreased steadily, with a range of 100-150 yuan / ton. The decline of international crude oil is bad for the market mentality. In addition, the terminal demand is poor, the downstream market entry enthusiasm is limited, the manufacturers’ shipment is general, and the price falls. It is expected that the price may still decline in the short term. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong civil market was 6636.00 yuan / ton on March 14 and 6570.00 yuan / ton on March 15, with a single day decline of 0.99%, an increase of 5.19% compared with March 1.

Future analysis of butanone

At present, the transaction of new orders in butanone market is general, the supply is tight and the demand is weak. The butanone datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the butanone market is mainly adjusted and operated in a narrow range, and more attention should be paid to the basic changes of butanone supply and demand.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of March 15, the average price of PMMA of domestic general transparent superior products was 16750.00 yuan / ton this week, which maintained a stable operation. Compared with the same period last week, the price range of mainstream manufacturers remained about 16500 yuan / ton. The price of PMMA mainly maintained a stable operation, the focus of negotiation was stable, and the price range of this week was small.

This week, the average price of domestic general transparent superior PMMA was 16750.00 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained about 16500 yuan / ton. Compared with the same period last week, there was no significant change in the price. The price of PMMA was mainly stable, the overall supply and demand was balanced, the purchase was just needed, the focus of negotiation was stable, and the supply and demand was normal.

Rubber and plastic index: on March 14, the rubber and plastic index was 815 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.11% from the highest point 1060 points in the cycle (2012-03-14), and up 54.36% from the lowest point 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

PMMA analysts of business agency believe that the PMMA market is expected to operate weakly and stably in the short term. (to get more information about goods and to grasp the price of commodities, welcome to subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community, the market is the opportunity).

Domestic cobalt price rose on March 14

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic cobalt price rose and the cobalt market rose on March 14. On March 14, the price of cobalt was 568500 yuan / ton, up 0.71% from 564500 yuan / ton on the previous trading day; The cobalt market rose, and the cobalt price rose slightly.

Key points of analysis

The rise of international cobalt price has slowed down, and the price difference at home and abroad still exists; The consumption of new energy vehicles increased, the sales volume of new energy vehicles decreased month on month, the demand growth rate of cobalt market fell, the output of ternary battery increased year on year, the demand of cobalt market was strong, and the rising power of cobalt market still exists. Cobalt prices rose too fast, and the risk of future decline remains.

Future forecast

The demand is high, the cobalt price rises, the price difference between domestic and foreign cobalt prices still exists, the risk of cobalt price rising too fast and falling still exists, and the cobalt price is expected to rise slightly in the future.

According to the monitoring data of East China, the average price of acetic acid rose by 4880 yuan / ton in November, compared with 428 yuan / week in East China. As of March 11, the market price of acetic acid in various regions rose and fell as follows:

region . March 5th . March 11th . Price rise and fall

South China . 3550-3650 yuan / ton . 4700-4800 yuan / ton . 1150/1150

North China . 3350-3500 yuan / ton . 4550-4650 yuan / ton . 1250/1100

Shandong region . 3400-3500 yuan / ton . 4500-4650 yuan / ton . 1150/1150

Jiangsu region . 3500-3600 yuan / ton . 4650-4750 yuan / ton . 1150/1150

Zhejiang region . 3600-3700 yuan / ton . 4750-4850 yuan / ton . 1150/1150

During the week, the acetic acid market rose strongly, and the manufacturer’s quotation continued to rise sharply. Mainly because the price of acetic acid continued to fall to the cost line in the early stage, downstream traders took goods actively with the bottom reading mentality, the inventory pressure of manufacturers was reduced, and driven by the rising market of raw methanol, the quotation of acetic acid manufacturers rose. The large rise in the bidding price of acetic acid in the main factories in Northwest and Henan during the week was good for the market mentality, the speculation mood of cargo holders was strong, and the price of acetic acid returned rapidly, Increase by about 200-350 yuan / ton in a single day.

Downstream, the market of ethyl acetate rose sharply. On March 11, the price of ethyl acetate in East China was about 8350 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.49% in the week. In terms of commencement, there was little change in ethyl acetate. The main factories remained stable compared with last week, and the downstream of the demand side gradually recovered. In addition, the cost drove the price of ethyl acetate to rise.

According to the acetic acid analysts of business society, the rising trend of acetic acid market continues, and the pressure on enterprise inventory is released under the mentality of buying up but not buying down. Due to the rapid rise in the short term, in the short term, the market situation may be in a stalemate next week. We will wait and see the downstream acceptance of high prices. In the long term, there is market news that the main manufacturers in North and East China plan to overhaul at the end of March, It is expected that the future market will be sorted upward, and attention will be paid to the installation of enterprises.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of March 10, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol is 15333 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on March 6, 2022 (the ex factory reference price of propylene glycol is 15466 yuan / ton), the average price is reduced by 133 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.86%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that this week, the domestic propylene glycol market was weak and operated downward. At the beginning of the week (7th), the trading atmosphere in the propylene glycol yard was cold, the wait-and-see mood in the downstream was heavy, the buying sentiment was weak, and a small number of actual orders were followed up on demand. Affected by the insufficient support at the demand side, the propylene glycol market was weak and operated downward. The propylene glycol factory slightly reduced the ex factory price of propylene glycol by about 100-200 yuan / week, and then in the middle of the week, The domestic propylene glycol market continued to be weak, and the downstream demand was not significantly boosted. On the 10th, the domestic propylene glycol market fell again in a narrow range, and the offer prices of some propylene glycol factories were slightly reduced by about 100-200 yuan / ton. As of the 10th, the ex factory price of domestic propylene glycol was around 15100-15600 yuan / ton, and the overall decline in the week was 0.86%. At present, the trading atmosphere of propylene glycol is general, and the market is weak.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, in March, the domestic propylene oxide market rose as a whole. In this week, the rise of propylene oxide slowed down. According to the data monitoring of business society, the reference price of propylene oxide was 12400 yuan / ton as of March 9, up 6.59% compared with March 1 (11633.33 yuan / ton).

Future trend analysis

At present, the downstream demand for propylene glycol continues to be weak, and the on-site wait-and-see mood does not decrease. The propylene glycol data division of business society believes that the propylene glycol market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range in the short term, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the basic changes in supply and demand and the follow-up of new orders.

The latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on March 9 was 5466.67 yuan / ton.

In terms of inventory, as of March 7, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 931000 tons, a decrease of 9700 tons or 1.03% compared with last Monday and 32100 tons or 3.33% compared with last Thursday.

Today, the word “up” remains the main theme of the crude oil market, with strong cost support. New York crude oil futures rose $4.3 to $123.70 a barrel in April, while Brent crude oil futures rose $4.77 to $127.98 a barrel in May. Meg’s external market performance was strong in the afternoon of ethylene glycol today, and the recent cargo negotiation was around us $770 / ton. The operating rate of polyester in the downstream was slightly corrected. Today, the production and sales were generally not high, the inventory pressure could not be effectively released, and the purchasing sentiment in the downstream continued to be weak.

Forecast: cautiously chasing the rise.

On March 8, the domestic cobalt price rose sharply

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic cobalt price rose on March 8, and the cobalt market rose. On March 8, the price of cobalt was 575200 yuan / ton, up 2.06% from 563600 yuan / ton on the previous trading day; The cobalt market rose sharply and the price of cobalt rose.

Key points of analysis

The intensification of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the intensification of European sanctions against Russia, and the obstruction of Russian cobalt exports have stimulated the rise of cobalt prices, the rise of international cobalt prices and the increase of price differences at home and abroad; The price of nickel soared in London, the high nickel of ternary battery was limited, the demand for cobalt may rise slightly, the consumption of new energy vehicles increased, the demand growth of cobalt market exceeded expectations, the output of ternary battery increased year-on-year, the sales of mobile phones increased month on month, the demand of cobalt market increased strongly, and the rising power of cobalt market increased. Cobalt prices rose too fast, and the risk of future decline remains.

Future forecast

Demand exceeded expectations, cobalt supply was expected to decrease, and the price of cobalt was expected to rise in the future.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market rose sharply on March 7. The average market price in East China was 6482 yuan / ton, up 6.31% from the previous day and 39.82% year-on-year. PTA’s main contract rose by the limit. The main contract 2205 closed at 6466 and settled at 6332, up 366 or 6%.

Crude oil once again set a new high since 2008. On March 4, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $115.68/barrel, up US $8.01 or 7.4%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $118.11/barrel, up US $7.65 or 7.9%. Western sanctions blocked Russian oil exports, overshadowing the supply benefits brought by Iran’s return to the international market.

From the perspective of supply and demand, the 350000 ton PTA plant of Yizheng Chemical fiber was overhauled for about 20 days on March 1. The load of 3.3 million T / a PTA unit of Yisheng new material decreased to a lower level in the evening of March 2, and it is planned to start to increase the load on March 7. Chuanneng chemical’s PTA plant with an annual output of 1 million tons was shut down for about one week on March 5. At present, the operating rate of PTA industry is around 74%. The downstream polyester market was pushed up by raw materials. The quotation of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was increased by 100-200 yuan / ton. The rigid demand of terminal weaving factories was properly followed up and procurement was mainly cautious.

Business analysts believe that the current PTA processing fee is low, the maintenance of PTA devices will increase significantly in the future, and the pressure on the supply side will further decline. In addition, as the continuous rise of crude oil price gives great impetus to the market, PTA cost side support remains strong in the short term, driven by this, PTA price will continue to rise.