On February 8, the rare earth index was 880 points, up 6 points from yesterday, down 12.00% from the highest point of 1000 points in the cycle (2011-12-06), and up 224.72% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

The domestic rare earth index rose, the price of domestic light rare earth praseodymium neodymium series rose, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide rose by 5000 yuan / ton to 955000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium metal rose by 20000 yuan / ton to 1185000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide rose by 940000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide rose by 20000 yuan / ton to 1080000 yuan / ton, and the price of metal praseodymium was 1.17 million yuan / ton, The price of neodymium metal increased by 10000 yuan / ton to 1.27 million yuan / ton, dysprosium oxide was 3.035 million yuan / ton, dysprosium ferroalloy was 3.01 million yuan / ton, and dysprosium metal was 3.83 million yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic light rare earth market increased, and the recent procurement was general. The price of dysprosium Series in domestic heavy rare earth market was temporarily stable, the price of terbium series increased, and the downstream procurement was mainly on demand. Myanmar banned export, It is expected that the price trend of domestic rare earth market will mainly rise in the later stage.

Domestic cobalt price rose on February 7

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic cobalt price rose on February 7, and the cobalt market rose slowly. On February 7, the price of cobalt was 505400 yuan / ton, an increase of 3000 yuan / ton or 0.60% compared with 502400 yuan / ton before the festival; After the festival, the cobalt market recovered and the cobalt price rose slowly.

Key points of analysis

The international cobalt price has risen, and the price difference at home and abroad has increased; The national subsidy for new energy has declined by 30%, the consumption of new energy vehicles may decline, the demand growth of cobalt market slows down, the mobile phone market recovers after the festival, and the strong demand of cobalt market still exists.

Future forecast

Demand growth, cobalt prices are expected to rise.

The latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on January 27 was 5275 yuan / ton.

In terms of inventory, as of January 24, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 643500 tons, a decrease of 20100 tons or 3.03% compared with last Monday and 14300 tons or 2.17% compared with last Thursday.

On January 26, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China market was 5210 yuan / ton, up 108 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day. The international oil price fell on Thursday, the soaring momentum of the energy market was technically corrected, the coal supply in the power coal region was tightened, there were few available sources of goods, the price rose, and the cost side was supported to a certain extent. Affected by the approaching Spring Festival holiday in the downstream, weaving production stagnated and production and sales were flat. Affected by coal and ethylene, the price of ethylene glycol is driven upward. At present, the port is going to the warehouse in a narrow range, and there is a large amount of arrival in the later stage. It is expected that the warehouse will be accumulated during the Spring Festival.

Forecast: wide range shock.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of January 26, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 18233.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 13.96% compared with the price on January 1, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.14% in a three-month cycle.

The market of epichlorohydrin rose in January. In the first ten days, the raw material propylene rose steadily, the glycerol market was ok, some enterprises reduced the load and stopped, the market spot supply was tight, the downstream inquiry and procurement were active, the supply of low-cost goods was difficult to find, and the price rose. In the middle of the year, with the restart of the early-stage shutdown device, the downstream was mainly on the sidelines, the replenishment was cautious, the market mentality was bearish on the future expectations, and the price of epichlorohydrin rose to a high level and fell back. In the last ten days, the cost side support weakened. With the successive holidays of downstream terminals, the enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement weakened, the market trading atmosphere was light, and the market was stable and weak.

Upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of business society, the reference price of propylene was 7770.80 on January 25, up 2.94% compared with January 1 (7548.60).

Downstream epoxy resin, on January 26, the liquid epoxy resin Market in East China was sorted out, and the negotiation was 27500-28000 yuan / ton. The opening of raw material bisphenol A was stable, and the on-site offer was 18550 yuan / ton. There was a lack of real orders in the on-site, and the negotiation was cold. Cyclic chlorine went down. Downstream factories have holiday plans, and most of the sites are dominated by orders. Resin Market negotiations are quiet and pay attention to the actual orders in the site.

The epichlorohydrin analyst of business agency believes that at present, the raw material propylene is weak, the price of glycerol is stable, and the cost support is general. The Spring Festival is approaching, a small amount of downstream just needs to be followed up, and the market is mainly wait-and-see. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin Market may be stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business society, on the 25th, the nickel price plummeted, of which the spot price was 166750 yuan / ton, down 7.5% from the previous trading day, and the nickel futures price fell sharply. Earlier, nickel prices rose sharply by more than 180000 yuan / ton.

At present, the fundamentals of nickel have not changed much. At present, there is still a shortage of supply and strong demand for green energy. The high price of nickel has dropped, which is mainly affected by several reasons:

The handling fee of the deposit raised in the previous period

The Shanghai Stock Exchange announced that since the closing and settlement on Wednesday, January 26, 2022, the proportion of trading margin and the range of price limit will be adjusted. The proportion of trading margin of nickel, tin and stainless steel futures contracts will be adjusted to 14% and the range of price limit will be adjusted to 12%.

Qingshan high nickel matte shipping

The first batch of high nickel matte products in morowali Park, Castle Peak, Indonesia were collected at the port and officially loaded and shipped home. At present, there are 3 high nickel matte production lines in morowali Park, with a monthly nickel metal production capacity of about 3000 tons. It is preliminarily understood that in addition to the existing production lines, Indonesia Castle Peak Park plans to build several new production lines in the future. This is the first shipment of products other than samples since the announcement of Qingshan high nickel matte in March last year. Previously, Castle Peak signed an agreement with Huayou and Zhongwei on the annual supply of 75000 tons of high nickel matte, with the supply period from October 2021 to October 2022. It is understood that the total shipping volume is about 500 tons.

Affected by multiple factors such as Qingshan high nickel matte shipment, the increase of margin handling fee in the previous period, and the decline of European and American stock markets caused by the tense situation in Ukraine, the high nickel price fell. However, the large-scale production of high nickel matte still takes time, and the fundamentals have little impact for the time being. Nickel prices are expected to rise and fall, mainly based on capital game, and maintain a shock pattern in the short term.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol rose first and then fell this week. The average price of domestic mainstream market price of neopentyl glycol rose from 16520.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 16647.33 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 0.77%.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream manufacturers of neopentyl glycol rose this week: the distribution price of Shanghai Qihua Wanhua neopentyl glycol at the weekend was 17000 yuan / ton, which fell by 500 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; The distribution price of Shandong Zhiying Jihua neopentyl glycol at the weekend was 15142 yuan / ton, which was 582 yuan / ton higher than that at the weekend. The distribution price of Jinan aochen Wanhua neopentyl glycol at the weekend was 17800 yuan / ton, which increased by 300 yuan / ton compared with last weekend

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the isobutyraldehyde market fell sharply this week. The average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream market fell from 16833.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 13666.67 yuan / ton this weekend, down 3166.66 yuan / ton, or 18.81%. The market price of upstream raw materials fell sharply and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Future forecast

In late January, the market trend of neopentyl glycol may decline slightly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market fell sharply, the cost support weakened, the downstream coating market was general, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was weak. Analysts of neopentyl glycol of business society believe that the short-term neopentyl glycol market may decline slightly under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 6050 yuan / ton on January 17 and 6050 yuan / ton on January 21. The price of chlorinated paraffin was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the supply of chlorinated paraffin 52 decreased, the market demand was poor, and the cost price decreased. The overall trend of chlorinated paraffin is weak and stable, and the manufacturer mainly sells at a stable price. As of January 21, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui is about 6300 yuan / ton, that in Shaanxi is about 7100 yuan / ton, that in Northeast is about 5600 yuan / ton, that in South China is 5600-6500 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong is 5000-5400 yuan / ton, The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in East China is 6000-6500 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw liquid wax, the price of liquid wax rose and fell this week, and the overall market was stable. The market mentality is good and there is little fluctuation in the short term. In terms of raw liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine fell this week. There is sufficient supply in the site and insufficient downstream demand. The price of liquid chlorine may continue to decline in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of chlorinated paraffins of business society believe that at present, the price of raw liquid chlorine is lower and the cost support is weakened. The demand for downstream goods preparation is poor, and the manufacturer mainly delivers goods smoothly. Under the condition of weak supply and demand, it is expected that the chlorinated paraffin will be in weak finishing operation in the short term, and there will be no great change in the short term.

The latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on January 20 is 5325 yuan / ton.

In terms of inventory, as of January 17, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 663600 tons, a decrease of 39400 tons, a decrease of 5.60%, and 45200 tons, a decrease of 6.38%, compared with last Thursday.

On January 19, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China market was 5305 yuan / ton, up 112.5 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day and 138.67 yuan / ton compared with last week.

The crude oil is in strong operation, and the superimposed ethylene glycol is in good condition to go to the warehouse. In the afternoon, the price center of MEG outer plate rises slightly, and the recent ship offer is around 710 US dollars / ton. However, due to the approaching Spring Festival, the demand side performance is flat, coupled with the restart of a 300000 t / a syngas MEG unit in Shaanxi, the two 500000 t MEG units in Fujian and Ningbo are expected to restart this weekend, and the supply is expected to increase, limiting the upward space.

Forecast: shock consolidation.

According to the data of business society, the price of soda ash in 2021 shows a trend of first rising and then restraining. As can be seen from the ten-year price chart of soda ash, the price of light soda ash in 2021 has reached a high level in the past ten years, the highest point in the year is on November 6, and the average market price is about 3687.5 yuan / ton. From January to August, the price of soda ash was still at a relatively low level, which was not conspicuous. Since August, the price began to rise by leaps and bounds. Prices fell from the end of October.

From the monthly K column chart of soda ash, in 2021, the overall price of soda ash increased by more months and decreased by less months. Only in May, November and December did prices fall, while in other months they mainly rose. And the highest increase in September reached 34.05%.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average market price of soda ash at the beginning of the year was about 1340 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the end of the year was about 2700 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 101.49%.

From January to March, the price of domestic soda ash rose. On the one hand, the total inventory of domestic soda ash is large, but the regional distribution is uneven, and the inventory of some manufacturers is tight, resulting in a rise in prices; On the other hand, the rise of glass prices in the downstream has driven the demand for soda ash prices. The downstream has resumed production and transportation, and the market atmosphere is good. The recent rise in glass prices has a certain pulling effect on soda ash.

From April to June, it runs relatively smoothly from April to May. The operating rate was stable and the glass price was consolidated. In June, the price rose, the glass market price rose, driving the demand for raw material soda ash, and the downstream glass price rose, which was good for soda ash and supported the soda ash price.

From July to September, the high price of soda ash rose. Recently, affected by double control and power restriction, some soda ash enterprises shut down or reduce their units, the overall operating rate has decreased, and the short-term operating rate is expected to remain low. According to the data, the latest soda ash plant warehouse is only 265600 tons, which is at an absolute low level in recent three years. However, the market expects that the double control measures such as power and production restriction in the main production areas will continue, the power and production restriction areas may expand, the soda ash output is expected to decline further, and the inventory will remain low. At present, the overall supply of soda ash is reduced, and the delivery is dominated by early orders. The price of raw salt in the upstream is affected by the dual control policy. Glass prices are weak. Glass protection and soda ash play a price game. They are resistant to high priced soda ash, but soda ash is mainly purchased on demand.

From October to December, the price rose by 15.32% in October. The main reason for the rise is the impact of the dual control policy. Then, the price of soda ash decreased in November and December, mainly due to the increase of soda ash inventory and the general market atmosphere. Downstream glass is mainly purchased on demand, with strong wait-and-see mood. He is resistant to high priced soda ash. At present, they are still resistant to the price of soda ash, and the manufacturers carry out one more single negotiation.

It can be seen from the upstream and downstream industrial chain diagram monitored by the business community that the demand side factors mainly focus on the downstream consumption of soda ash. Most domestic soda ash is used in industrial production, and the proportion can reach 96%. The mainstream consumers of soda ash are float glass and photovoltaic glass. Therefore, the downstream demand side of soda ash focuses on the glass industry. It is reported that soda ash accounts for about 30% of the production cost of float glass. Let’s take another look at the price rise and fall chart of soda ash industry chain tracked by business agency. It shows that the downstream corresponding to light soda ash has increased rapidly, which supports the spot soda ash price to a certain extent. Among them, sodium pyrosulfite increased by 62.38%, bromine increased by 59.43%, cryolite increased by 25.86%, baking soda increased by 84.41% and glass decreased by 10.22%.

Demand: glass fell from the fourth quarter. This is the price trend chart of glass in 2021. At the beginning of the year, the average price of glass market was 27.7 yuan / m2, and at the end of the year, the average price of glass market was 24.87 yuan / m2, with a decrease of 10.22%. The highest point in the year was on September 14, 38.75 yuan / square meter. Prices rose in the first, second and third quarters and began to decline in the fourth quarter.

Then look at the operating rate chart and inventory chart. From the operating rate, it can be seen that the operating rate of soda ash in 2021 will remain between 70-85%, and the operating rate will remain at a high level from January to May. It has declined since July, mainly because of the production and power restriction policy, manufacturers produce less soda ash.

As can be seen from the inventory chart, the inventory of soda ash was high at the beginning of the year, which reached about 1.1 million tons in February. The output decreased in August, September and October, about 200000-400000 tons. The inventory of soda ash showed an upward trend at the end of the year.

Analysts of business society believe that: soda ash forecast: from the current supply, the manufacturer’s operation is stable and there will be no large fluctuation in the operation rate. We will also attach great importance to the safety inspection before and after the Spring Festival. Soda ash will mainly maintain the weak consolidation operation before and after the Spring Festival. In terms of downstream glass, it is now affected by the general environment. With the increase of temperature, the epidemic situation will improve. In March next year, the global environment will improve, the demand for glass will pick up, or the demand for light soda ash will increase. At present, soda ash has a high opening rate, and the shutdown of Lianyungang plant may lead to a gap in soda ash next year. It is comprehensively estimated that soda ash may have a trend of first restraining and then increasing in 2022 next year, but the details still depend on the downstream demand.

Yesterday, the price of ethylene oxide was lowered. The latest ex factory price in East China, North China, South China and Northeast China was 6900 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price in Central China was 7000 yuan / ton.

Upstream, on Monday, the CIF price of imported crude oil in Qingdao rose with the rise of the international crude oil futures market. The geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine ignited concerns about supply interruption and boosted oil prices. Despite the strength of crude oil, near the domestic Spring Festival, the ethylene market has sufficient supply, coupled with the bearish demand trend, and the market price has declined. The external price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was 925 US dollars / ton, down 25 US dollars / ton compared with the price on the previous trading day; The external price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was US $965 / ton. The quotation of Luxi Chemical and Jinshan Lianmao ethylene today was 7300 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the previous trading day.

Downstream, after a brief rebound in the monomer market yesterday morning, the market was impacted by the news of ethylene oxide falling price, and the price returned to the bottom for consolidation. At present, most downstream factories are waiting and waiting, and there is great pressure for manufacturers to support the market.

In terms of ethylene oxide, Sri Lanka has a short stop. It is expected to restart on the 26th. The restart of Yangzi, Zhenhai and Fude units is imminent. The supply side will be in large quantities. There are loose expectations for the supply side in East China.

Temporarily stable.