In March, the epoxy resin market continued to be depressed and downward, especially in the latter half of the year, with an obvious decline, with a cumulative decline of 5.57%. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the offer of liquid epoxy resin Market in East China was 27400 yuan / ton on March 1, and fell to 25675 yuan / ton on April 1. As of press time, the offer of liquid resin Market in East China was 24700-25800 yuan / ton, and the offer of solid resin Market in Shandong was 22300-22700 yuan / ton.

Raw material bisphenol A went down significantly. In March, the domestic bisphenol a market was depressed first and then increased, and the overall decline was mainly due to the fermentation of domestic public events, the serious obstruction of logistics and consumption, and bisphenol a broke down for many times. At the end of the month, due to the centralized replenishment at the downstream PC end and the limited spot resources in the market, the market rose. According to the monitoring data of the business society, the national market was quoted at 17187 yuan / ton on March 1, fell to 15825 yuan / ton on March 25, and rose to 16550 yuan / ton on March 31. It was first restrained and then raised during the month, with an overall decline of 3.71%.

The high level of raw material dicyclohydrin is stable. In March, epichlorohydrin market rose first and then fell. In the middle and early ten days, the price of raw material propylene rose first and then fell, the cost support changed from strong to weak, the price of glycerol was high, the cost support was strong, the market operating rate was relatively low, the manufacturers had no inventory pressure, the intention of low output was not strong, the price of epichlorohydrin pushed up, the logistics and transportation in some regions were limited, and the market atmosphere was light. In the last ten days, the cost support of propylene method was weakened, the cost side of glycerol method had some support, the demand side dragged down the market mentality, the shipment of goods holders was under pressure, and the price was weak.

From the perspective of business society, the cost support is limited, the current downstream demand is weak, and the logistics is seriously blocked. It is expected to weaken in the short term, adjust the operation, and pay attention to the upstream and downstream products of the industrial chain.

Aluminum prices continued to fall this week

According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China market on March 31 was 22640 yuan / ton, a daily drop of 0.44%, down 1.66% from the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China market on Friday of 23023.33 yuan / ton

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 24240 yuan / ton, which has fallen 6.60% from the peak value recently. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 21.11% recently.

Analysis on the main causes of slight correction during the week

In terms of fundamentals, although the energy price in Europe is at a high level and the reduction of overseas aluminum ingot production is still expected, the aluminum price has been driven up in the early stage and is currently at a relatively high level. In terms of demand, the downstream operating rate of domestic aluminum ingots is affected by traffic factors, and the operating rate of aluminum profiles, aluminum plates and foils has rebounded; In terms of inventory, social inventory has been slightly removed recently. The slight correction during the week was mainly due to the high aluminum price driven by the early external market, which hit a wall at the actual demand end.

Future forecast

It is expected that the aluminum price will continue to be suppressed by the 23000 mark. Under the long short game, the upward space will be narrowed, and the stable and weak shock operation will be dominated.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic PTA market recovered slightly. As of March 30, the average market price of domestic PTA in East China was 6134 yuan / ton, up 0.27% from the previous trading day and 38.67% year-on-year. PTA futures 2205 closed at 6082, up 52, or 0.86%.

Yisheng Ningbo 2 million ton PTA plant was restarted on March 28, and the load was insufficient. The 1.2 million ton PTA unit of Zhongtai Petrochemical was overhauled on March 25 and restarted around April 11. Ineos 1.25 million ton PTA plant was overhauled on March 26 and is planned to restart around May 1. The unit restart and maintenance are carried out in parallel, and the current operating rate of the industry has increased to about 76%.

The downstream polyester plant plans to reduce production, and the demand for PTA is expected to weaken, but the crude oil price rebounded, recovering most of the decline of the previous day and night, and the cost support is enhanced.

Business analysts believe that the terminal demand is weak due to the epidemic, and PTA supply and demand are both weak. However, the current PTA price fluctuation is still deeply affected by oil prices. It is expected that the short-term market will fluctuate slightly and adjust the operation.

Data monitoring shows that on March 29, the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in the domestic market was about 16128.57 yuan / ton, which has continued to weaken slightly since the last ten days.

Key point analysis: at present, manufacturers in the main production areas of Henan have sufficient product inventory. So far this year, the epidemic has a great impact on the economy and demand. The downstream demand is weak and the transaction is general. Under the control measures, the transportation capacity is tight, the cost has increased to a certain extent, and it is difficult to deliver goods in some areas. The price of upstream raw material acrylonitrile remained stable in the near future until it was increased by 50 yuan / ton on the 29th. At present, the mainstream quotation in the market is about 11550 yuan / ton; The market price of raw acrylic acid fell sharply in the past two days, down 5.73% from the price on the 27th.

Future forecast: at present, the epidemic situation in many parts of the country is tense, the delivery and transportation are affected, and the cost increases. In terms of raw materials, the cost of polyacrylamide raw materials increases little and has a downward trend, and the spot inventory in the market is sufficient, and the demand under multiple control is also affected. It is expected that the polyacrylamide market will be stable and weak in the future.

The latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on March 28 was 5200 yuan / ton, up 1.13% from the previous trading day and down 2.80% year-on-year.

In terms of units, a new 400000 ton syngas MEG unit in Guanghui, Xinjiang was put into operation as planned last week, and products are expected to be produced near the end of the month; A 300000 ton ethylene glycol plant in Shanxi Meijin has been put into operation and produced qualified products. At present, it is in low load operation. Two sets of MEG units with a total of 1.55 million tons / year in Zhejiang have successively reduced the load recently. A set of MEG unit with a total of 500000 tons / year in Fujian is planned to reduce the production by 20% in April due to the impact of cracking and reducing the load.

Today, the ethylene glycol market rose slightly, Meg’s external market was strong, and the recent cargo negotiation was estimated to be around 690 US dollars / ton. Although the crude oil price fell today, the overall trend range is still at a high level, and ethylene glycol enterprises suffer serious losses. The load reduction plan of two sets of MEG units in Zhejiang and one set in Fujian is beneficial to the ethylene glycol market, and the market enthusiasm has been improved. The polyester plant is expected to reduce the burden, but the downstream textile demand has not been greatly improved. High raw material prices are hard to shake the weak demand, so we need to pay close attention to the changes in supply and demand.

Forecast: wide range shock.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price fluctuated and rose this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper price was 73810 yuan / ton, up 0.39% from 73521.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 12.03% year-on-year.

Copper weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of business society, in the past three months, it has risen by 7 and fell by 4 and 1. Recently, the overall trend of copper price is strong.

Copper’s recent high shock trend is dominated. On Friday night, LME suggested banning Russian copper from entering the warehouse, and the short-term copper price fluctuation may intensify. The retail sales volume of narrow passenger cars in March is expected to be 1.58 million, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%. As there are many areas affected by the epidemic and the epidemic is still in dynamic change, the specific impact of the auto market in March still needs to be further observed.

To sum up: disturbed by the concentrated outbreak of the epidemic in some parts of China, the delivery efficiency of smelters has declined, and it is rumored that some smelters will stop production under financial pressure. Overall, the impact of supply is significantly greater than that of demand. It is expected that domestic inventory will continue to be destocked under the dual weak pattern of supply and demand. Copper prices will be dominated by high volatility.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of baking soda this week was stable and dynamic. The average market price at the beginning of the week was about 2523.33 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 2520 yuan / ton, with the price falling by 0.13% and a year-on-year increase of 55.88%. On March 17, the commodity index of baking soda was 167.48, unchanged from yesterday, down 28.99% from the highest point of 235.84 in the cycle (2021-11-10), and up 89.74% from the lowest point of 88.27 on December 22, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business agency, the price of baking soda is stable for the time being, and the demand in the downstream market is generally in the near future. At present, the price of baking soda in Henan is about 2450-2600 yuan / ton. Raw materials: the price of light soda ash in East China is about 2600-2700 yuan / ton in the mainstream market. The price of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2650-2800 yuan / ton. Data show that the overall operating rate of soda ash this week was 89.75%, the output of soda ash was 589200 tons, and the output of soda ash increased slightly.

Demand: in the downstream, the demand for baking soda in medicine, textile and food is general. Raw materials, soda ash operates in a large, stable and small way, the downstream still maintains a wait-and-see attitude, the trading atmosphere is light and stable, and the soda ash price is adjusted and operated. In the downstream, the demand for baking soda in medicine, textile and food is generally in the near future. Generally speaking, the price of baking soda may maintain the consolidation operation in the short term, depending on the demand of the downstream market.

Price: 480000 yuan / ton for industrial grade lithium carbonate and 501000 yuan / ton for battery grade lithium carbonate

Analysis: Although the price of lithium carbonate has increased slightly recently, there has been a callback in the quotation of sporadic enterprises in the market. At present, most lithium salt plants on the supply side maintain a high opening rate, and imported lithium carbonate may also arrive in Hong Kong after March to April. At that time, the domestic lithium carbonate supply situation will be effectively alleviated. After late March, the downstream procurement of the market declined, and the subsequent preparation for production was also in many wait-and-see stages.

Forecast: as the end of the month approaches, the market purchasing atmosphere is light, and some traders adjust prices to increase shipments. It is expected that the short-term lithium carbonate price may maintain stability.

Bisphenol a continued to decline at 15800-15900 yuan / ton in East China market

Today, the bisphenol a market continued its downward trend. At present, the terminal demand is sluggish and difficult to change. Yesterday, the bidding price of a petrochemical in East China fell by 500 yuan / ton compared with last Thursday, and the market atmosphere is cold. Today, Lihua yiweiyuan bisphenol A was reduced by 700 yuan to 15800 yuan / ton. Under the pressure of cargo holders, the offer was further lower, the intention of sporadic inquiry was low, and the differences between the two sides were obvious. The downstream large enterprises are mostly contract based, and other spot goods are difficult to supplement, and the on-site transaction volume is obviously insufficient.

The impact of the short-term epidemic on logistics and factory inventory digestion on the industry should not be underestimated. The demand of downstream factories affects the demand for raw materials to a certain extent. The transaction of bisphenol a market is insufficient, mainly short-term decline, and it is difficult to be positive in the short term. The business society expects that the short-term bisphenol a market will continue to run at the bottom.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price trend of cryolite in Henan continued to rise this week. On March 18, the average market price in Henan was 7475 yuan / ton, up 2.40% from 7300 yuan / ton at the end of last week and 3.10% month on month.

quotations analysis

Domestic cryolite market wait-and-see consolidation, during the week, the quotation of main enterprises in Henan Province was basically stable, and the quotation of individual manufacturers was increased, mainly due to cost pressure and tight supply of raw materials. In addition, due to environmental protection factors, enterprises mainly use natural gas. Under the influence of the current international situation, the price of natural gas is high, the cost of cryolite enterprises increases, and the downstream demand is weak and stable. Most enterprises hold a wait-and-see attitude, and the market quotation remains high. As of March 18, the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong is 7000-7600 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Henan is 6700-8500 yuan / ton.

The price of upstream soda ash was stable and small this week. As of March 18, the average market price was about 2612.50 yuan / ton, and the price decreased slightly during the week. This week, the soda ash was consolidated and operated, the downstream purchase was cautious, and held a mentality of resistance to high prices. The market transaction was weak, the manufacturer delivered flexibly, and the soda ash inventory increased.

Downstream, the aluminum market fell first and then rose. On March 18, the aluminum price was 22515 yuan / ton, down 2.85% during the week. The rise of overseas energy prices raised the cost of electrolytic aluminum, adding that the aluminum destocking was obvious this week, the aluminum price rose during the week, and the aluminum market was sorted upward.

Future forecast

The operating rate of the domestic cryolite market is low, the enterprise inventory is not under pressure, the downstream demand is stable, and the upstream raw material support is superimposed. The cryolite market continues to operate at a high level, with specific attention to the downstream demand.