On March 8, the domestic cobalt price rose sharply

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic cobalt price rose on March 8, and the cobalt market rose. On March 8, the price of cobalt was 575200 yuan / ton, up 2.06% from 563600 yuan / ton on the previous trading day; The cobalt market rose sharply and the price of cobalt rose.

Key points of analysis

The intensification of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the intensification of European sanctions against Russia, and the obstruction of Russian cobalt exports have stimulated the rise of cobalt prices, the rise of international cobalt prices and the increase of price differences at home and abroad; The price of nickel soared in London, the high nickel of ternary battery was limited, the demand for cobalt may rise slightly, the consumption of new energy vehicles increased, the demand growth of cobalt market exceeded expectations, the output of ternary battery increased year-on-year, the sales of mobile phones increased month on month, the demand of cobalt market increased strongly, and the rising power of cobalt market increased. Cobalt prices rose too fast, and the risk of future decline remains.

Future forecast

Demand exceeded expectations, cobalt supply was expected to decrease, and the price of cobalt was expected to rise in the future.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market rose sharply on March 7. The average market price in East China was 6482 yuan / ton, up 6.31% from the previous day and 39.82% year-on-year. PTA’s main contract rose by the limit. The main contract 2205 closed at 6466 and settled at 6332, up 366 or 6%.

Crude oil once again set a new high since 2008. On March 4, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $115.68/barrel, up US $8.01 or 7.4%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $118.11/barrel, up US $7.65 or 7.9%. Western sanctions blocked Russian oil exports, overshadowing the supply benefits brought by Iran’s return to the international market.

From the perspective of supply and demand, the 350000 ton PTA plant of Yizheng Chemical fiber was overhauled for about 20 days on March 1. The load of 3.3 million T / a PTA unit of Yisheng new material decreased to a lower level in the evening of March 2, and it is planned to start to increase the load on March 7. Chuanneng chemical’s PTA plant with an annual output of 1 million tons was shut down for about one week on March 5. At present, the operating rate of PTA industry is around 74%. The downstream polyester market was pushed up by raw materials. The quotation of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was increased by 100-200 yuan / ton. The rigid demand of terminal weaving factories was properly followed up and procurement was mainly cautious.

Business analysts believe that the current PTA processing fee is low, the maintenance of PTA devices will increase significantly in the future, and the pressure on the supply side will further decline. In addition, as the continuous rise of crude oil price gives great impetus to the market, PTA cost side support remains strong in the short term, driven by this, PTA price will continue to rise.

DOP prices rebounded and rose this week

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, DOP prices fluctuated and rose this week, and the DOP market picked up. As of March 4, the DOP price was 12450 yuan / ton, up 4.73% from 11887.50 yuan / ton on February 25 last weekend. DOP market rose this week, and DOP price fluctuated and rose.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose this week

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic isooctanol price rose this week, the crude oil price rose sharply this week, the chemical sector followed, and the isooctanol price rose sharply. As of March 4, the price of isooctanol was 12966.67 yuan / ton, up 5.42% from 12300 yuan / ton on February 25 last weekend. The price of isooctanol rose sharply, the cost of DOP rose, and the driving force of DOP rise increased.

Phthalic anhydride prices rose this week

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose this week. As of March 4, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8475 yuan / ton, up 5.12% from 8062.50 yuan / ton on February 25 last weekend. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride rose, the demand for phthalic anhydride rose, the price of DOP raw materials rose, and the cost support increased.

PVC market fluctuated and rose this week

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the PVC price stopped falling and rose this week, and the PVC market picked up and rose. As of March 4, the price of PVC was 8750 yuan / ton, up 290 yuan / ton or 3.43% from 8460 yuan / ton on February 25 last weekend. The price of PVC rose this week, and the rigid demand for PVC warmed up; DOP market is more favorable.

Future expectations

DOP data analysts of business agency believe that this week, DOP raw material isooctanol rose violently, phthalic anhydride prices rose violently, and DOP costs rose strongly; The price of raw materials rose at a high level, and the upward momentum of DOP increased. In the future, the demand for plasticizers has warmed up, the upward momentum of DOP has increased, and the price of DOP has risen strongly.

Trade name: acrylic acid

Latest price (March 3): 16033.33 yuan / ton

On March 3, the market of acrylic acid in East China was temporarily stable, flat compared with the previous trading day, and increased by 15.90% compared with the price on February 3. At present, the market price of raw propylene is rising, the cost support is strengthened, the maintenance of some units is expected, the downstream demand is gradually restored, and the market is high.

It is expected that the acrylic acid market will run better in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market rose sharply on March 2. The average market price in East China was 5995 yuan / ton, up 4.68% from the previous day and 32.15% year-on-year. PTA main contract rose by the limit, and PTA futures main 2205 closed at 5988, up 6.02%.

WTI crude oil set a new high since June 2014, PTA followed the rise of crude oil, and the cost support was strong. It is difficult for Russia and Ukraine to reach a satisfactory result in the negotiations, the war in Ukraine is difficult to calm down in the short term, and the market expectation of future energy supply interruption is further strengthened. A multinational agreement to release strategic crude oil reserves also failed to curb the rise in oil prices. On March 1, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $103.41/barrel, up US $7.69 or 8.0%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $104.97/barrel, up US $7.00 or 7.1%.

From the perspective of supply and demand, under the low processing cost, the maintenance of domestic factories increased. Among them, the 350000 ton PTA unit of Yizheng Chemical fiber was overhauled for about 20 days on March 1. At present, the operating rate of PTA industry is around 78%, and the expectation of destocking helps PTA prices rise. Most of the downstream polyester market rose, and the quotation of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased by 50-100 yuan / ton.

Business analysts believe that the pattern of strong crude oil remains unchanged in the short term, PTA’s own factory devices are overhauled one after another, the supply side is expected to shrink further, and the weaving start of superimposed terminals will gradually recover. Therefore, PTA fundamentals are expected to be better, and the price will remain upward.

Price: industrial grade lithium carbonate 449600 yuan / ton, battery grade lithium carbonate 468000 yuan / ton

Analysis: at the beginning of the week, the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise. At present, the market output of lithium carbonate is still affected by the shortage of resources, and the market gap still exists. In March, the downstream lithium iron phosphate plate experienced maintenance and production reduction in varying degrees, which slightly slowed down the procurement demand. With the rising price of lithium carbonate, the cost of downstream enterprises has increased sharply, the pressure has increased, the acceptance of high lithium price is low, and the short-term upstream and downstream game has heated up.

Forecast: at present, there are relatively few high price transactions in the lithium carbonate market, mostly just in need of purchase. At the beginning of the month, the downstream enters the state of monthly supplement. It is expected that the short-term lithium carbonate price will still rise slightly.

Cobalt prices rose sharply in February

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic cobalt price rose sharply in February, and the cobalt market rose. As of February 28, the average price of cobalt was 546500 yuan / ton, up 8.78% from 502400 yuan / ton on February 1 at the beginning of the month. On February 28, the cobalt commodity index was 196.58, down 17.72% from the highest point 238.91 in the cycle (April 15, 2018), and up 181.47% from the lowest point 69.84 on July 5, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now). The price of cobalt is approaching a historical high, and the risk of falling cobalt price is increasing.

The international cobalt price rose slightly

As can be seen from the trend chart of MB cobalt price, the price of MB cobalt resumed rising in February, and the price of international standard cobalt rose, which was good for the domestic cobalt market. However, from the increase of cobalt price, it can be seen that the increase of international cobalt price in February was limited, and the support of international cobalt Market for the domestic cobalt market was weak.

Sales of new energy vehicles exceeded expectations

According to the data released by China Automobile Association, in January, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 452000 and 431000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times and 1.4 times respectively. From past experience, January is usually the off-season for the sales of new energy vehicles, and the consumption of new energy vehicles is expected to decline significantly due to the decline of subsidies in January 2022. In January, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased significantly, the sales of new energy vehicles exceeded expectations, the demand of cobalt market increased, and the rise of cobalt price supported greatly.

According to the latest data released by China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance, in terms of output, in January 2022, China’s power battery output totaled 29.7gwh, a year-on-year increase of 146.2% and a month on month decrease of 6.2%, of which the output of ternary battery was 10.8gwh, accounting for 36.5% of the total output, a year-on-year increase of 57.9% and a month on month decrease of 5.4%; In January 2022, China’s power battery loading volume totaled 16.2gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 86.9% and a month on month decrease of 38.3%, realizing a significant year-on-year increase. The ternary battery loading volume was 7.3gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 35.2% and a month on month decrease of 34.0%. The output of ternary batteries increased sharply year-on-year, the installed capacity increased year-on-year, the demand of cobalt market increased, the output and installed capacity of power batteries decreased month on month, and the decline proportion of ternary batteries was less than that of power batteries. The demand of ternary batteries in the future is optimistic, and the demand of cobalt market is expected to rise.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at the business agency, believes that the off-season of new energy vehicles in February was not light, and the demand of cobalt market exceeded expectations. The rising demand of cobalt Market stimulated the sharp rise of domestic cobalt price. In February, the increase of international cobalt price was less than that of domestic cobalt price, the price difference between domestic and foreign cobalt prices decreased, and the cobalt price in February approached a historical high. The domestic cobalt price rose too fast, and the risk of decline in the domestic cobalt market still exists. In the future, the demand growth and the rising power of cobalt market are large. The domestic cobalt price rises too fast, and the risk of cobalt market decline still exists. The rising trend of cobalt Market in the future still exists, but the increase decreases. It is expected that the cobalt price in the future will rise slightly.

Spot price: the spot price of domestic polyester staple fiber stabilized and rebounded this week (2.21-2.25). According to the price monitoring of business agency, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber was about 7810 yuan / ton on February 25, up 0.97% from the beginning of the week and 1.34% from the same period last year.

Futures market: this week, the main force of staple fiber pf futures showed a shock upward trend. On February 25, the main contract of staple fiber pf futures closed at 7612, up 256 or 3.48% from the closing price of last week. The settlement price is 7682 yuan; The position was 112749, the position decreased by 649 and the basis was 198. Domestic staple fiber upstream raw material futures prices rose and fell this week, with PTA rising 5.94% and ethylene glycol falling 0.91%.

Influencing factors: 1 International crude oil prices rose sharply this week. The tension between Russia and Ukraine escalated, and the international oil price soared sharply. On the 24th, the CFD of WTI New York crude oil exceeded US $100 / barrel. At the weekend, affected by the weaker than expected us and European sanctions against Russia, the oil price fell sharply, and the US oil rose by about 4% this week; 2. This week, the cost side of PTA benefited from the strong performance of international oil prices. The maintenance of PTA unit is expected to rise under low processing cost, and the downstream is gradually started, but the demand recovers slowly; 3. This week, the social inventory of ethylene glycol continued to accumulate slightly, the overall supply and demand pressure was large, and the futures and spot prices fell slightly; 4. This week, the market of pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn was sorted horizontally. The market performance was insufficient and the mentality was generally weak. The yarn factory mainly delivered goods cautiously, and the factory transaction was general, mainly delivered orders; 5. Affected by the rise in the price of main raw materials, the price of polyester staple fiber rebounded slightly this week. The downstream yarn mills and weaving mills resumed work one after another, and the production and sales rebounded. However, the recovery in demand is still less than expected, and the spot price trend of staple fiber is relatively stable.

Future forecast: in the short term, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will escalate, the oil price is easy to rise but difficult to fall, and the cost side support of polyester staple fiber is strong. It is expected that polyester staple fiber will show a strong shock trend in the short term in the future. Pay close attention to the situation in Russia and Ukraine, changes in raw material prices and the resumption of upstream and downstream work.

On the 24th, aluminum prices operated smoothly

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on February 24 was 22706.67 yuan / ton, up 5.16% from the average market price of 21593.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (2.1); Compared with the average market price of 20370 yuan / ton in early January (January 1), it increased by 11.47%.

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 24240 yuan / ton, which has fallen 6.33% from the peak value recently. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 21.47% recently.

The long short game of aluminum price increased slightly

According to statistics, on the 24th, the social inventory of aluminum ingots in the mainstream market was 1118000 tons, and 15000 tons were accumulated in the week. In terms of inventory in the plant area, it has decreased on the whole, and it is in the state of de stocking on the whole within the week. At present, the manufacturer’s shipment pressure is relatively small. In the downstream market, at present, the price of aluminum ingots is relatively high, and there is little willingness to hoard goods in the downstream. In terms of outbound volume, except for a small month on month increase in Chongqing this week, Wuxi’s outbound volume decreased due to epidemic factors; The outbound volume in Foshan, Changzhou and Gongyi areas decreased; The ex warehouse volume in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin and Shenyang changed little month on month.

After the quarter, the aluminum price rose sharply. After breaking through 23000 points, the long short game intensified, the downstream wait-and-see mood was strong, and the taking of goods decreased sharply. It is expected that the recent high-level shock operation will be dominated.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of February 23, 2022, the average price of organosilicon DMC market quotation in mainstream areas was 34716 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on February 1, 2022 (the reference price of organosilicon DMC was 31660 yuan / ton), the average price was increased by 3056 yuan / ton, or 9.65%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that during the Spring Festival holiday in early February, the domestic silicone DMC market operated smoothly and the on-site trading was relatively quiet. After the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic silicone DMC market as a whole showed a weak trend and fell slightly. On the 7th, a large domestic monomer factory in Shandong lowered the ex factory price of silicone DMC to 31000 yuan / ton, up 600 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival. The price adjustment of the large factory brought some wait-and-see mood to the silicone DMC market after the festival. The downstream demand was mostly purchased on demand, and other factories were mainly large and multi-dimensional and stable prices.

In late February, the domestic silicone DMC market ushered in an upward trend for nearly half a month. Downstream demand has been expanding one after another, and the trading atmosphere on the floor has improved. Since the 14th, the domestic silicone DMC market has opened a continuous rising mode. Shandong large factory has raised the ex factory price of silicone DMC for two consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of 1300 yuan / ton. On the 15th, the ex factory price of silicone DMC of the factory rose to 32300 yuan / ton. On the 16th and 17th, other monomer factories also followed the upward trend, The ex factory price of organosilicon DMC was raised by 300-500 yuan / ton. As of the 17th, the ex factory price of domestic organosilicon DMC was around 32300-32600 yuan / ton. The downstream demand followed up normally, and the overall market situation of organosilicon DMC was stable. Starting from the 21st, under the double support of tight supply and warmer demand in the field, Shandong large factory raised the ex factory price of silicone DMC for three consecutive days. As of the 23rd, the ex factory price of silicone DMC in the factory increased to around 35100 yuan / ton, the phenomenon of plate sealing in the field increased, and the high-end quotation in the field rose to around 36000 yuan / ton. At present, the trading atmosphere of silicone DMC is good.

In terms of upstream metal silicon, on February 23, the metal silicon (441#) market was relatively strong, and the logic of 441# metal silicon price rise remained unchanged. According to the data monitoring of business society, the average price of metal silicon in the domestic market was 21920 yuan / ton, and the price of metal silicon still had the power to rise with the increase of cost. The downstream demand of the demand side is good, especially the silicone and polysilicon are rising all the way. The operating rate of the main production area in the southwest of the supply side decreases seasonally, and the supply is expected to decline. The silicon plant is looking forward to the market. On the whole, the bullish psychology of silicon plants is getting higher and higher, and the price of metal silicon is expected to be stable in the short term.

Silicone DMC market outlook forecast

At present, with the continuous rise of silicone DMC market, the downstream inquiry atmosphere is still preferred, but the actual transaction is becoming more cautious. The silicone DMC data division of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic silicone DMC market is more stable, focusing on the overall operation in the medium term, and more attention needs to be paid to the trend changes of supply and demand.