1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, caustic soda prices showed a downward trend in November. At the beginning of the month, the average price of caustic soda in Shandong region was 838 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price of caustic soda in Shandong region was 780 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.92% and a decrease of 23.6% compared to the same period last year. On November 27th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 765 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 45.36% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (October 23, 2021), and an increase of 27.93% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the survey data from Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been showing a downward trend in November. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 710-810 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is stable, with a mainstream market price of 840-930 yuan/ton in 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is stable, with a mainstream market price of 2250-2350 yuan/ton (converted to 100%) in 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. At the beginning of this month, the supply of caustic soda was loose and the production started at a high level, but downstream demand for caustic soda was average, resulting in a decline in caustic soda prices. As of the end of the month, there is sufficient supply, and downstream alumina has shown moderate enthusiasm for entering the market recently. The market is still in a stalemate, and more caustic soda is purchased on demand. It is expected that the alumina market will experience weak fluctuations in the later period. In addition, data shows that the cumulative export volume from January to October 2025 was 2944386.820 tons, a year-on-year increase of 41.93%. The cumulative import volume from January to October 2025 was 338.803 tons, a year-on-year increase of 94.57%.
Business analysts believe that the caustic soda prices in November have been weak in recent times, and downstream buyers in China have been purchasing on demand. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda will maintain a stable operating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.