Zinc price in November

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 28th, the zinc price was 22356 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.40% compared to the zinc price of 22558 yuan/ton on November 1st.
In the early stage of November, zinc prices were affected by tight supply, cost support, and export expectations, resulting in an overall shift in focus. However, in the later stage, the upward space was limited by weak demand and high inventory pressure.
In terms of raw materials
In November, mines in northern China entered a seasonal period of reduced production, with a month on month decrease in zinc ore output; Due to the extremely low Shanghai London exchange rate, the losses of imported mines have expanded, and the growth space of import volume is limited. The overall supply of zinc ore is tightening, and processing fees are accelerating their decline, providing support for zinc prices on the cost side.
Supply and demand side
On the supply side, some smelters voluntarily reduced production in November due to raw material shortages and profit compression. It is expected that refined zinc production will slightly decrease compared to the previous month, but the release of new production capacity still provides some support for supply, and the overall supply pressure will be marginally relieved.
On the demand side, downstream industries such as galvanizing, die-casting zinc alloys, and zinc oxide have entered the off-season, and the operating rate is expected to weaken month on month. Terminal consumption is weak, and demand in the infrastructure and real estate sectors continues to be sluggish, which has limited effect on driving zinc prices. The marginal recovery of consumption in Europe and America, coupled with the resilience of demand in areas such as automobiles and photovoltaics, has resulted in weak overall demand growth, making it difficult to provide strong support for zinc prices.
Future forecast
In November, the social inventory of zinc ingots in China remained high, but the export window for zinc ingots continued to open, with some zinc ingots flowing overseas or LME warehouses, which to some extent eased the pressure on domestic inventory. It is expected that the zinc price will exhibit a strong range oscillation pattern.