1、 Price data

According to the latest monitoring data of business agency, as of May 31, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 8388.25 yuan / ton, up 3.13% from 8133.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the overall price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha rose.

According to the latest monitoring data of the business agency, as of May 31, the average ex factory price of domestic local refining straight run naphtha was 8265.00 yuan / ton, up 3.05% from 8020.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the price of local refining straight run naphtha rose as a whole.

On May 31, the naphtha commodity index was 103.53, up 0.87 points from yesterday, down 14.89% from the highest point 121.64 in the cycle (2022-03-10), and up 145.10% from the lowest point 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the price of local refined naphtha rose violently this month. At present, the mainstream price of local refined hydrogenated naphtha is about 8300-8500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of straight run naphtha is about 8200-8400 yuan / ton. In April, the international crude oil rose violently, the naphtha market was in a strong wait-and-see mood, the demand for olefins and aromatics in the naphtha terminal was weak, the market transaction was general, and the refinery shipment was positive. As of the week of May 25, the inventory of residual fuel oil including fuel oil and low sulfur wax containing residual oil in Singapore increased by 2339000 barrels to 21.106 million barrels; Inventories of light distillates including naphtha, gasoline and reformate increased by 1717000 barrels to 15461000 barrels; The inventory of medium distillate oil decreased by 84000 barrels to 7.285 million barrels.

Upstream: in May, international crude oil rose violently, the EU oil ban on sanctions against Russia was delayed, and the expectation of tight supply remained unchanged. With the arrival of summer driving season in the United States, demand is expected to improve, and supply and demand fundamentals are still good for oil prices. OPEC will adhere to the oil production agreement reached last year at the meeting on June 2, increasing the daily output by 432000 barrels in July, rejecting the Western call for faster production increase to reduce soaring oil prices. As the epidemic situation in Asia gradually eases, demand expectations tend to improve. However, the economic recession, the tightening of monetary policy and the spread of monkeypox virus have increased the uncertainty of oil demand prospects, which has led to pressure on oil prices to a certain extent.

Downstream: in May, the price of toluene rose in a wide range. On May 1, the price of toluene was 7310 yuan / ton, and on May 27, the price was 7920 yuan / ton, an increase of 610 yuan / ton, or 8.34%, compared with the beginning of the month. In May, mixed xylene rose violently, and the price rose broadly. On May 1, the price of mixed xylene was 7330 yuan / ton; On May 27, the price was 7880 yuan / ton, up 7.5% from the beginning of the month. In May, the price of p-xylene rose. By the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 9900 yuan / ton, up 11.24% from the price of 8900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 54.69% year-on-year.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the energy analysts of business agency, the international crude oil price rose sharply in May, supported by the naphtha cost, but there is no obvious positive effect on the terminal demand at present. The naphtha market has a strong wait-and-see mood, and the market turnover is general. At the end of the month, the terminal prepared goods before the holiday, and the refineries actively pushed up. It is expected that the naphtha refining in the near future may rise slightly.