Price Trend

This week (9.16-9.20) the domestic 1# tin ingot Market slightly declined, with the average domestic market price at 141262.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 13722.50 yuan/ton at the end of the week, falling by 2.87%.

On September 20, the tin commodity index was 69.89, down 0.2 points from yesterday, down 30.28% from the cycle peak of 100.25 points (2011-09-05), and up 63.07% from the December 09, 2015 low of 42.86 points. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Trend Analysis

Futures market: This week Lunxi concussion downward, early in the week Lunxi by the impact of domestic Shanghai Tin night trading rose to a weekly high of $17145/ton, and then as crude oil prices fell all the way down concussion, as of Friday 18:30, Lunxi’s latest price was $16560/ton, a weekly decline of $190/ton, a decline of 1.13%, trading volume of 1495 hands, holding. The warehouse volume is 18,000 hands, reducing by 1,002 hands. This week’s Shanghai Tin Stock Exchange maintained a general trend of shock consolidation after its low jump at the beginning of the week. At the beginning of the week, Shanghai Tin fell rapidly to its weekly low of 135350 yuan/ton, and then recovered to its weekly high of 139250 yuan/ton. On Friday, the Shanghai Tin futures market opened low and rose again at the end. It closed at 136890 yuan/ton on Friday, falling by 4760 yuan/ton, or 3.36 percent, with a turnover of 182,000 hands, a position of 38,000 hands and a decrease of 1936 hands.

Domestic market: Spot market was dragged down by futures market this week, falling to 13600-138000 yuan/ton as of Friday. Downstream purchasing intention warmed up and the market atmosphere was more active. As for lifting and discounting, as of Friday, for the Shanghai Tin 2001 contract, the lifting price of packed Panyun Tin is 600-800 yuan/ton, the lifting price of ordinary Yunzi is 100 yuan/ton, and that of small brand is 100-300 yuan/ton.

Industry Event: WBMS: The global tin supply gap is 4,800 tons from January to July 2019: London, September 18, 2010. According to data released Wednesday by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), the global tin supply gap is 4,800 tons from January to July 2019. Total reported inventories were 6,500 tons higher than at the end of 2018, but this included 6,000 tons of unexplained increases in Indonesian inventories. Global refined tin production increased by 3,000 tons from January to July 2019 compared with the same period last year. Asia’s output increased by 2,500 tons year on year. Apparent demand in China increased by 8% year on year. The global demand for tin from January to July 2019 was 219.7 million tons, an increase of 1.4% over the same period last year. Japan’s consumption was 16.5 million tons, down 3.1% from the same period last year. In July 2019, the output of refined tin was 33,000 tons and the consumption was 35,500 tons.

Non-ferrous industries: This week, the US dollar index shook in the high range of 98.2-98.6, the British break-off event further fermented the pound plunge, the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, a partial hawk, the US dollar high was stable, triggering market fears about the weakening of the global economy; Saudi Arabia said after the attack that it would soon resume production, crude oil rushed back to high. As a result, basic metals fell, with Shanghai Tin Week falling by 3.36%.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Next week is the last trading week before the National Day holiday, and there are long orders for delivery in the first half of the week. With the coming week, the pre-holiday hedging mood will gradually increase. Whether spot or futures, hedging and bagging will be the main safety. The market will be characterized by rising first and then falling. The domestic spot tin price as a whole will be next week. Or slightly lower.