Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the price of calcium carbide manufactured in Northwest China rose slightly this week. This week, the average price quoted by mainstream carbide producers rose from 2850.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2950.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 3.51%, down 3.73% from the same period last year. Overall, the market of calcium carbide rose slightly this week, with the carbide commodity index of 77.29 on September 20.

II. Trend Analysis

(1) Products:

This week, the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose slightly: Ovidiang’s offer for the weekend was 2900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the week; Shaanxi coal industry’s offer for the weekend was 2750 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Inner Mongolia and China Federation’s offer for calcium carbide this week was 3000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the week. The price of Ningxia Xingping Calcium Carbide is 2950 yuan/ton this week, which is 150 yuan/ton higher than that at the beginning of the week.

This weekend, the actual transaction price of calcium carbide in Northwest China is about 2700-3000 yuan/ton: the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Shaanxi is about 2700-2900 yuan/ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Ningxia is about 2900 yuan/ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 3000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

(2) Industrial chain:

Upstream raw material market: This week’s coke ex-factory quotation was temporarily stable, at 1716.67 yuan/ton, down 30.57% from the same period last year. Compared with last year, the price of raw materials in the upstream has fallen considerably and the cost support is insufficient, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market: PVC ex-factory prices rose this week. The price of PVC rose from 6685.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6795.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 110 yuan/ton, up 1.65%, down 0.59% from the same period last year. Downstream PVC market rose, downstream customers increased their enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement. Overall, it seems that this week’s rise in PVC market has a positive impact on calcium carbide prices.

3. Future Market Forecast

After the adjustment in August, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired and the production capacity has increased. Compared with last year, the price of raw materials in the upstream is low and consolidated. Compared with last year, the price has fallen considerably, the cost support is not enough, and the positive impact on the price of calcium carbide is limited. However, the price of PVC in the downstream has risen considerably, basically keeping the level with last year’s price, and the enthusiasm of customers in the downstream for the purchase of calcium carbide has increased. Later market forecast that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will rise concussively in late September, and the ex-factory price may be maintained at around 3000 yuan/ton.