The domestic aggregate MDI market fluctuates narrowly. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the average market price of aggregate MDI is 12800 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, 12725 yuan/ton at the weekend, 0.59% in the week, 2.68% in the same period of last month and 17.90% in the same period of last year.
II. Market Analysis
Product: This week, the market of MDI converged in three twists and turns, first falling, then rising, and finally stabilized. At the beginning of the week, the guideline price of Shanghai Cosco’s founding factory was not clearly announced, but the market was informed that the guideline price had dropped significantly. On-site negative atmosphere spread, the market low turnover increment. With the continuous fermentation and spread of crude oil incidents, the mentality of the operators has been greatly affected. The downstream terminal customers actively enter the market to collect goods, and the holders actively maintain the shipment status based on the accumulated inventory. Later, with the unexpected greening of crude oil, the active atmosphere of the market was instantly extinguished, and the purchasing volume of the downstream for a period of time was also completed. The positive atmosphere of the market transaction was reduced. However, in view of the previous large volume of shipments, the stockholder relieved the inventory pressure and reluctantly sold. September should be in the peak season of traditional northern thermal insulation enterprises, but this year’s “Golden Nine” has not been quiet due to the impact of previous environmental inspections and Sino-US trade wars.
On the market side, as of Friday (9.20), the North China Polymerized MDI market was deadlocked, the overall atmosphere in the field was low, the turnover was short, and the vendors’offer was stable and low-priced. At present, the quotation of Shanghai bucket carrying ticket is 11600-11700 yuan/ton, and that of PM200 bucket carrying ticket is 12500-12600 yuan/ton. East China Polymerization MDI market is weak and deadlocked, the atmosphere on the floor remains light, the transaction is not smooth, the traders offer more stable and low prices. At present, the quotation of Shanghai bucket carrying ticket is 11600-11700 yuan/ton, and that of PM200 bucket carrying ticket is 12500-12800 yuan/ton. South China Polymerization MDI market is weak, the atmosphere is light, business is not smooth, business offer is stable, low price is the main price. At present, the quotation of barreled goods with tickets in Shanghai refers to 11600-11700 yuan/ton, and the quotation of PM200 barreled goods with tickets in Shanghai refers to 12600-12800 yuan/ton.
Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: This week, the price of pure benzene rose. Saudi oil field was attacked, crude oil surged early in the week, driving FOB Korea pure benzene to rise more than $50 per ton, and East China pure benzene offer also exceeded 6000 yuan per ton. Sinopec’s listing rose to 5900 yuan/ton in time. However, as the industry expects Saudi crude oil facilities to recover soon, this round of increase is only due to short-term psychological support, difficult to sustain, and the downstream has established stockpiles of raw materials, so there is no willingness to pursue this round of rise downstream factories, trading only occurred in the hands of traders. With Saudi Arabia’s announcement that crude oil will return to its pre-attack production level by the end of September and that Saudi oil exports will not decrease in September, supply risk concerns have eased and international oil prices have plunged. After losing the good support of crude oil, the market mentality changed, and the internal and external markets subsequently fell.
Graph.100ppi.com (500 x 300)
Aniline: Within a week, the domestic aniline market rose sharply, with an increase of 800-820 yuan/ton. In terms of raw materials, due to the Saudi Arabian incident, crude oil soared after the festival, once driving the price of pure benzene to more than 6,000 yuan/ton, and Sinopec raised it to 5,900 yuan/ton. However, with the rebound of crude oil, the price of pure benzene rationally returned to the vicinity of 5900 yuan/ton. On-site pure benzene spot is tight, the market is still strong. This week, the average tender price of pure benzene in Jinling, Shandong Province, rose 148 yuan from last week, and aniline cost support is strong. At the same time, Tianji 9.15 accidental parking, a small amount of goods only for core customers, resulting in a large number of downstream users such as Henan to find goods in Shandong, Shandong enterprises aniline plan, low inventory, rising prices, and began to limit delivery. In the East China market, Yangnong plant only maintains normal operation and has no product output for the time being. In addition to the main supplier contract customers, Nanhua’s main spare shipments release a small amount of goods on the market. The sales pressure of East China enterprises is low, and the price keeps rising in North China.
3. Future Market Forecast
It is expected that near the end of the month, in addition to the small amount of goods on hand, agents are reluctant to sell, and market prices are strong. Despite the limited downstream picking efforts, the trend of price decline is not obvious under the support of cost. Analysts of business associations aggregate MDI expect that next week domestic aggregate MDI market price range shocks dominate. Pay close attention to the price guidelines and supply policies of Shanghai factories.