In April 2022, the domestic 1# tin ingot market price fluctuated widely, and the overall trend remained downward. The average price in the domestic market was 3491300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 336130 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 3.72%.
On April 29, the base metal index was 1504 points, up 2 points from yesterday, down 6.93% from the highest point of 1616 points in the cycle (2022-03-09), and up 134.27% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).
During the Qingming Festival holiday, the domestic futures market was closed. At the beginning of the month, boosted by the rise of crude oil, the metal market generally rose, and Lunxi rose. Later, with the rise of the US dollar, the metal market was generally under pressure, and the opening of Lunxi was under pressure. Shanghai tin basically followed the trend of Lunxi, rising first and then falling, falling from the high level on the 6th, and the price of domestic spot market followed the futures market down sharply. Later, as the domestic fundamentals of supply and demand were both weak, the market was on the sidelines, and the tin price remained wide and volatile for about half a month. After the 19th, Shanghai tin ushered in the main contract month change. From a fundamental point of view, the problem of raw materials in supply and demand has been alleviated to some extent. On the supply side, the market is expected to improve with the improvement of the import side in April and the overall supply will improve after some Indonesian sources enter the market. The operating rate of downstream end users on the demand side has increased to a certain extent, but the downstream demand has not fully recovered due to various factors. The overall demand is still weak, and the tin price has declined due to the drag of demand.
In the future, the business society believes that the overall performance of supply and demand is weak in terms of fundamentals, and there is little change in tin fundamentals. The tin price fluctuates with the overall market sentiment. Low inventory is still the main factor to boost the tin price. LME inventory and domestic inventory are low as a whole. It is expected that the low inventory in the future will support the high shock of tin price.