1、 Price trend
According to the data of business agency, on April 29, the average price of P value of oil-based ethylene glycol was 4891.67 yuan / ton, down 83.33 yuan / ton compared with the previous statistical cycle.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
Unit: the 600000 ton ethylene glycol unit in sanning, Hubei Province has a load reduction operation plan since May and will be overhauled in June; The 300000 ton ethylene glycol unit of Qianxi coal chemical industry and the 120000 ton ethylene glycol unit of Inner Mongolia Yigao have maintenance plans in May; Shenhua Yulin 400000 ton ethylene glycol plant is planned to be shut down for maintenance for about 20 days in early June.
The price focus of ethylene glycol fell this month and the trading was deadlocked. As of April 28, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 1151500 tons, a decrease of 1500 tons or 0.13% compared with last Thursday, and an increase of 13500 tons or 1.19% compared with Monday. The operating rate of ethylene glycol fell sharply this month, and the load reduction and shutdown of EG unit increased. Due to the low operating rate and limited logistics, the enthusiasm of polyester manufacturers to pick up goods was affected, the remaining MEG tank space in the port continued to be tightened, and the overall supply surface was still slightly abundant. International crude oil is still at a high level. Some analysts pointed out that if there is a broader and longer blockade in May and beyond, there will be a continuous downward risk in domestic oil demand and prices, and the oil market will continue to fluctuate widely under pressure. At present, the demand support of downstream polyester for MEG is still weak. The average polymerization rate of polyester in April is expected to be around 87%, but there is a strong expectation.
3、 Forecast: Although the thrust brought by the current crude oil market is large, the demand side is constrained and the surge is still subject to resistance. It may be improved after the demand side is improved.