1、 Price trend
According to the business club’s big list data, domestic caprolactam prices rose sharply in June. The average ex factory price of caprolactam on June 1 was 9916 yuan / ton, and that on June 30 was 10400 yuan / ton, with an increase of 4.87%.
On June 30, the caprolactam commodity index was 52.31, down 0.33 points from yesterday, 47.69% from 100.00 points (2017-03-02), and 32.77% higher than the lowest 39.40 points on April 07, 2020. (Note: the period refers to March 1, 2017 to now)
2、 Market analysis
As of June 30, baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid was listed at 11000 yuan / ton, and the settlement price was 10750 yuan / ton. The 450000 tons / year plant was normally started and accepted. Baling Petrochemical caprolactam liquid listing price 11000 yuan / ton, settlement price 10750 yuan / ton, 300000 tons / year unit normal start-up, acceptance delivery. Fujian Shenyuan caprolactam liquid listing price 11000 yuan / ton, settlement price 10900 yuan / ton. The price of caprolactam liquid of Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 9600 yuan / T, and the factory has a production capacity of 300000 tons. The actual transaction can be discussed.
The raw material pure benzene market rose to fall in June. In the first week, the price of domestic pure benzene rose slightly. Crude oil and external disk have strong support for pure benzene. In the second week, Sinopec adjusted the price of pure benzene by 200 yuan / ton, narrowing the price difference between internal and external markets, and strengthening the support at the bottom of the market. In the second half of the month, the price of raw material pure benzene showed a downward trend. The port inventory is high, the speed of delivery is slow, and the inventory pressure is difficult to release. Shandong refining enterprises inventory increase, driving prices continue to fall.
In June, the trend of downstream PA6 changed from strong to weak. In the first half of the month, the domestic market of PA6 was relatively strong, and the spot price of each brand increased to a certain extent. The upstream caprolactam inventory is low and the supply is still tight, which strongly supports the cost side of PA6. The demand of downstream slicing plant is general, and the purchase strategy of just need is mainly. The performance of PA6 in the second half of the month was average, and the business offer was deadlocked, and the shipment situation declined. The domestic operating rate is fair. Although the increase of overseas plasticizer consumption demand is good for domestic enterprises to remove inventory, the recent follow-up of orders from downstream factories is slow, and the reaction to high price goods is general, and the stock preparation is mainly on bargain hunting.
3、 Future forecast
Caprolactam analysts believe that the raw material prices continue to rise in early June, caprolactam supply is tight. The downstream demand for caprolactam increased. In the later stage, raw materials and terminal markets fell together, the cost support weakened, and the downstream demand was weak, which led to the poor market of caprolactam. It is expected that caprolactam market will consolidate in the future, and the market may go down again.