1、 Price trend
This week, PVC first fell and then rose. The weekend spot market was driven by the rise of futures and the price rose. According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide method SG5), the domestic mainstream average price of PVC on July 3 was 6257.5 yuan / ton, up 0.12% compared with the previous day, and decreased by 7.64% compared with the same period last year. The maximum amplitude in the period is 17.09%
2、 Market analysis
On July 3, PVC market stopped falling and turned to rise. Due to the sharp rise of futures and the strength of the market, PVC spot market followed closely. This week, the PVC market is weak, futures shocks, the spot market is also in a state of callback. At this stage, it is the traditional off-season, some downstream factories are operating with reduced load, limited receiving capacity, and just in demand procurement is given priority to, and the consignors are offering profits to ship goods. The PVC market is stagnant. However, on July 2, the sharp rise of futures broke the deadlock, the mainstream prices in different regions rose to varying degrees, the focus shifted upward, and the enterprises’ shipment was fair. Under the mentality of buying up but not buying down, the enthusiasm of market participants increased. At present, the social inventory continues to be de stocked, some enterprises are still in the state of maintenance, the supply side still has some favorable support, the enterprise shipment is normal, the manufacturer’s confidence in supporting prices has been enhanced, and the market trading atmosphere has improved. On the whole, the fundamentals have not changed much, and the relationship between supply and demand is relatively stable.
On the spot, according to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of July 3, the mainstream domestic PVC quotation range was around 6100-6350 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 type tourmaline in Changzhou is around 6200-6260 yuan / ton, that in Hangzhou is 6300-6380 yuan / ton, and that in Guangzhou is around 6400-6450 yuan / ton, which can be negotiated.
In terms of futures, PVC 2009 contracts on the 2nd day were lower and higher, closing at 6290 yuan / T, + 125 yuan compared with the previous trading day; trading volume 214774 hands, + 120148 hands; 190668 positions, + 14887 hands, basis difference of – 50 yuan, – 130 yuan; 9-1 price difference of 180 yuan, + 15 yuan. The opening price of V2009 contract on March 3 was 6275, the highest price was 6380, the lowest price was 6260, and the closing price was 6335, + 115, up 1.85%.
In terms of supply, the operating rate of production enterprises this week was more than 70%. Most of the maintenance enterprises have recovered and their output has increased to a certain extent. After July, the number of maintenance enterprises decreased. Recently, some enterprises planned to repair and repair, such as Xinjiang Zhongtai, Zhonggu mining, Zhongyan Jilantai, Inner Mongolia Yili, etc., have maintenance plans. Some enterprises’ maintenance plans have been postponed to August. Social inventory continues to decline, but the speed slows down From the point of view, the supply tends to rise in a stable way, but it is gradually weakening.
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In terms of demand, at present, the terminal operating rate is at a slightly higher level in the year, and the manufacturing market is still recovering. At present, it is in the off-season, and there is more precipitation in the plum rain season. The real estate industry is affected to a certain extent. However, the start-up of enterprises such as pipes and profiles is still at a high level, and other enterprises are at a medium and low level, and exports continue to be sluggish. On the whole, the performance of the demand side is fair, but it is difficult to drive the market to rise sharply in the off-season.
On the 2nd, international oil prices rose, with wti08 contract up $0.83/barrel at 40.65 and Brent 09 contract by 1.11/barrel at 43.14. Recently, the external price of ethylene showed an upward trend. On the 2nd, the European ethylene market rose, with FD northwest Europe offering 738-747 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe offering 724-732 US dollars / ton, up 33 US dollars / ton. Asian ethylene market remained stable, CFR Northeast Asia quoted 845-855 USD / T, CFR Southeast Asia quoted 785-795 USD / T. In the US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted 218-236 U.S. dollars / ton; generally speaking, the recent European and American ethylene market is mainly up, the overall ethylene market demand is good, the trading atmosphere is active, and the rise is relatively sufficient.
The price of blue carbon in the upstream market is low consolidation, and the cost support is insufficient, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide. But the downstream PVC price high consolidation, the rise is weak, downstream customer demand for calcium carbide weakened. In the near future, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly: the manufacturer’s quotation is about 2500 yuan / ton, and the calcium carbide in the future market will drop slightly.
3、 Future forecast
According to the PVC analysts of the business agency, at present, the overall inventory of PVC continues to be removed, the maintenance enterprises are reduced, and there are still some advantages. The demand side is in the traditional off-season, while the support is still in place, and the trading atmosphere is getting better. It is expected that the trend of PVC in the short term will be more volatile, with the possibility of continued rise, but the space is limited.
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