According to the data, the natural rubber commodity index on June 29 was 29.60, down 0.71 points compared with yesterday, 70.40% lower than 100.00 points (2011-09-01), and 8.50% higher than 27.28 points, the lowest point on April 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
Figure 2: natural rubber mainstream price trend in the first half of 2020
From the beginning of January to June of 2020, the overall market of natural rubber showed a downward trend and then a small upward trend. The price of natural rubber at the end of March and early April was a periodic bottom. In May, the Tianjiao Jedi rebounded and fluctuated upward. In June, the natural rubber continued the upward trend of last month and first rose to the near-term highest point. Subsequently, due to insufficient demand support, the price turned downward, and then there was a certain degree of shock rebound. According to the natural rubber (bid 1) data in East China monitored by the business agency, in June, the mainstream price of Baodao whole milk market was about 10120 yuan / ton on the 1st day and 10078 yuan / ton on the 30th day, up 0.42% so far this month. Among them, the price of 10370 yuan / ton on the 5th day was the highest point in recent two months, and 9980 yuan / ton on the 29th was the lowest price of this month, with the largest earthquake amplitude of 3.76%. Generally speaking, before the Dragon Boat Festival, the price of Baodao whole milk was 10370 yuan / ton, which was the highest in recent two months, The price of natural rubber fluctuated between 10100-10400 yuan / ton. On the first trading day after the Dragon Boat Festival, with the sharp drop of nearly 300 points in Shanghai rubber, the spot price of natural rubber was adjusted, and the mainstream price of domestic whole milk broke through 10000 yuan again. On the last trading day of this month, it rose slightly and returned to more than 10000 yuan.
So far this year, NR has highlighted several aspects of its “difference”:
First, due to the globalization of the epidemic situation since 2020, it is inevitable that the demand for natural rubber at home and abroad will be greatly reduced. Crude oil will rebound after a continuous drop. As a natural rubber that is easily affected by crude oil, with the downward process of crude oil, natural rubber experienced a breakthrough of 10000 yuan in the first half of the year, and then experienced a slow rebound for three months. So far, the market is weak and weak.
Second, at the same time, crude oil fell sharply, and butadiene went down sharply. As a result, the price of alternative rubber was low, and some demand of tire manufacturers turned to the market of substitute rubber. The already poor demand of Tianjiao was replaced by a part.
Third, the demand is not good, and the operating rate of tire factories will be affected. The data shows that the current operating rate of domestic tire factories is about 60-70%, which is the highest operating data so far this year. The statistics of automobile sales data have only rebounded since May, but only on a month on month basis, which is still an inevitable decline on a year-on-year basis.
Fourth, the year 2020 is different. It is doomed that the opening of new rubber will be delayed due to weather disasters and pest disasters. China’s traditional cutting season has come, but there is no wait for the domestic production to increase significantly. However, the production of Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries will not be listed until the end of this month. There is no doubt that the inventory of natural rubber will continue to increase, especially in Qingdao free trade zone Inventory of.
Fifthly, the difference of natural rubber in 2020 is also reflected in the regional differences in domestic supply. As early as mid May, the shortage of natural rubber in Yunnan, especially in Banna, has resulted in the continuous firmness of rubber prices. According to local traders, the delay in the listing of new rubber this year and the fact that some import indexes have not been released in previous years have resulted in the shortage of local supplies At the end of last month and in the middle of this month, many articles of our press had analyzed the regional differences in the domestic natural rubber market in detail. Up to the end of June and the beginning of July, this situation still existed, and the regional transmission of goods sources also appeared.
Sixth, the existence of trade friction. On June 12, the U.S. Department of Commerce released the preliminary findings of the fourth review on anti-dumping of passenger car and light truck tires against China. Two compulsory responding enterprises obtained 76.46% of the dumping duty rate for refusing to participate in the investigation, and seven enterprises received zero tax rate. On the 26th and 27th of last month, the Ministry of Commerce and industry of India issued a series of announcements to initiate anti-dumping investigations on China’s nitrile rubber and rubber additive px-13. Although trade frictions are not rare, this year’s difficult situation and the frequent occurrence of such incidents make the export situation even more severe.
To sum up, the natural rubber situation in 2020 is difficult. With regard to the future market, the analysis of the business agency believes that the recent focus is that Thailand’s new rubber has begun to be listed in large quantities, while the domestic natural rubber inventory is still high and facing a substantial increase. However, the downstream demand rebounds slowly, the contradiction between supply and demand is more prominent, and the price will be subject to certain pressure. Due to the low level of rubber every day, there is little room for decline; Yunnan, especially in Banna, is in short supply, which will form a certain support for prices, especially local prices. It is expected that the demand of new infrastructure will be boosted. The serious epidemic situation in foreign countries and the local rebound of domestic situation will inevitably cause emotional worries. Long and short will affect the market comprehensively. It is expected that the volatility trend of Tianjiao will continue in the future. We should guard against the impact of a large number of new rubber listed on the price.